2022 NFL Draft Positional Rankings Per Analytics (Defense)
The offense version of this column is here.
My analytics only 2022 NFL Draft Positional Rankings are just that -- the results of what my model spits out at me. I have my personal RB and WR rankings after watching their film. But this process is at least interesting and at best actionable.
My model takes projected draft capital (essentially a film grade), age, college production, team strength, and athleticism to create an NFL projection. I then compare that projection to all drafted players since 2005 at that position to create prospect percentiles. The best prospects will have a 100th percentile score. Bad prospects will have 5th percentile scores. 50th percentile is average obviously. The best prospects in my model often hit the following:
Projected to go early in the draft
Are 20 or 21 years old with a bonus for early declares
Played on elite college teams and were 4- or 5-star recruits
Were very productive players in their final season
Were early producers if they didn't go to elite football programs
Tested well at the Combine
In this column, you'll see two primary metrics: 1) "Adjusted Production" is a combination of the most predictive on-field stats, college team strength, and age, so an older prospect who had more yards at a bad school very well could have a lower adjusted production score compared to a younger prospect on a good team. That's because the latter is more predictive of NFL success. ... 2) "Adjusted SPARQ Athleticism" is an all-encompassing workout score, but unlike other athletic measurables, this one is specific to each position. This is key because the athleticism required at CB is far different than it is at DT. I even have split RB and WR into two different models because small RBs typically are used out in space as pass-catchers and big RBs are asked to run up the middle. Ditto for small and big WRs.
In general, the most predictive stat is draft capital, followed by adjusted production and then adjusted SPARQ athleticism.
2022 DT Prospect Rankings
Rank 1 | Player Jordan Davis | College Georgia | Age 22.29 | Model 0.94 | Draft Capital 0.93 | Adj. Production 0.24 | TFLs Per Game 0.12 | Team Strenght 0.97 | Adj. SPARQ 1 | Forty 0.97 | Three Cone | Weight 0.96 | |
Rank 2 | Player DeMarvin Leal | College Texas A&M | Age 21.83 | Model 0.85 | Draft Capital 0.79 | Adj. Production 0.97 | TFLs Per Game 0.87 | Team Strenght 0.61 | Adj. SPARQ 0.44 | Forty 0.72 | Three Cone 0.97 | Weight 0.03 | |
Rank 3 | Player Perrion Winfrey | College Oklahoma | Age 21.7 | Model 0.78 | Draft Capital 0.77 | Adj. Production 0.77 | TFLs Per Game 0.76 | Team Strenght 0.65 | Adj. SPARQ 0.69 | Forty 0.88 | Three Cone | Weight 0.09 | |
Rank 4 | Player Devonte Wyatt | College Georgia | Age 24.08 | Model 0.73 | Draft Capital 0.9 | Adj. Production 0.06 | TFLs Per Game 0.28 | Team Strenght 0.97 | Adj. SPARQ 0.93 | Forty 0.98 | Three Cone 0.78 | Weight 0.4 | |
Rank 5 | Player Travis Jones | College Connecticut | Age 22.54 | Model 0.68 | Draft Capital 0.81 | Adj. Production 0.16 | TFLs Per Game 0.41 | Team Strenght 0.08 | Adj. SPARQ 0.98 | Forty 0.85 | Three Cone 0.91 | Weight 0.84 | |
Rank 6 | Player Otito Ogbonnia | College UCLA | Age 21.68 | Model 0.43 | Draft Capital 0.47 | Adj. Production 0.75 | TFLs Per Game 0.18 | Team Strenght 0.49 | Adj. SPARQ 0.19 | Forty 0.1 | Three Cone | Weight 0.83 | |
Rank 7 | Player Phidarian Mathis | College Alabama | Age 24.01 | Model 0.33 | Draft Capital 0.72 | Adj. Production 0.24 | TFLs Per Game 0.49 | Team Strenght 0.89 | Adj. SPARQ 0.1 | Forty | Three Cone | Weight 0.62 | |
Rank 8 | Player Thomas Booker | College Stanford | Age 22.46 | Model 0.3 | Draft Capital 0.24 | Adj. Production 0.33 | TFLs Per Game 0.16 | Team Strenght 0.13 | Adj. SPARQ 0.82 | Forty 0.81 | Three Cone 0.91 | Weight 0.3 | |
Rank 9 | Player Eyioma Uwazurike | College Iowa State | Age 23.98 | Model 0.3 | Draft Capital 0.25 | Adj. Production 0.5 | TFLs Per Game 0.71 | Team Strenght 0.56 | Adj. SPARQ 0.57 | Forty 0.08 | Three Cone 0.64 | Weight 0.73 | |
Rank 10 | Player Jayden Peevy | College Texas A&M | Age 22.65 | Model 0.29 | Draft Capital 0.22 | Adj. Production 0.65 | TFLs Per Game 0.36 | Team Strenght 0.61 | Adj. SPARQ 0.3 | Forty 0.12 | Three Cone | Weight 0.54 | |
Rank 11 | Player Haskell Garrett | College Ohio State | Age 23.98 | Model 0.28 | Draft Capital 0.47 | Adj. Production 0.41 | TFLs Per Game 0.42 | Team Strenght 0.89 | Adj. SPARQ 0.3 | Forty 0.49 | Three Cone 0.45 | Weight 0.27 | |
Rank 12 | Player Matthew Butler | College Tennessee | Age 22.88 | Model 0.23 | Draft Capital 0.42 | Adj. Production 0.28 | TFLs Per Game 0.4 | Team Strenght 0.52 | Adj. SPARQ 0.4 | Forty 0.72 | Three Cone 0.26 | Weight 0.2 | |
Rank 13 | Player Chris Hinton | College Michigan | Age 21.62 | Model 0.22 | Draft Capital 0.11 | Adj. Production 0.69 | TFLs Per Game 0 | Team Strenght 0.9 | Adj. SPARQ 0.12 | Forty 0.13 | Three Cone 0.23 | Weight 0.44 | |
Rank 14 | Player Kalia Davis | College UCF | Age 23.57 | Model 0.2 | Draft Capital 0.36 | Adj. Production 0.32 | TFLs Per Game 0.48 | Team Strenght 0.31 | Adj. SPARQ | Forty | Three Cone | Weight 0.33 | |
Rank 15 | Player Neil Farrell | College LSU | Age 23.64 | Model 0.17 | Draft Capital 0.4 | Adj. Production 0.57 | TFLs Per Game 0.55 | Team Strenght 0.37 | Adj. SPARQ 0.02 | Forty 0.04 | Three Cone 0 | Weight 0.89 | |
Rank 16 | Player Jordan Jackson | College Air Force | Age 24.24 | Model 0.16 | Draft Capital 0.03 | Adj. Production 0.15 | TFLs Per Game 0.69 | Team Strenght 0.54 | Adj. SPARQ 0.8 | Forty 0.81 | Three Cone 0.97 | Weight 0.16 | |
Rank 17 | Player D.J. Davidson | College Arizona State | Age 24.61 | Model 0.09 | Draft Capital 0.03 | Adj. Production 0.35 | TFLs Per Game 0.21 | Team Strenght 0.45 | Adj. SPARQ 0.26 | Forty 0.22 | Three Cone 0.3 | Weight 0.85 | |
Rank 18 | Player John Ridgeway | College Arkansas | Age 22.98 | Model 0.08 | Draft Capital 0.34 | Adj. Production 0.14 | TFLs Per Game 0.13 | Team Strenght 0.64 | Adj. SPARQ 0.24 | Forty 0.12 | Three Cone 0.23 | Weight 0.8 | |
Rank 19 | Player Marquan McCall | College Kentucky | Age 23.09 | Model 0.03 | Draft Capital 0.14 | Adj. Production 0.05 | TFLs Per Game 0.21 | Team Strenght 0.54 | Adj. SPARQ 0.06 | Forty 0.04 | Three Cone | Weight 0.96 | |
Rank 20 | Player Jonathan Ford | College Miami (FL) | Age 23.58 | Model 0.03 | Draft Capital 0.03 | Adj. Production 0.02 | TFLs Per Game 0.02 | Team Strenght 0.38 | Adj. SPARQ 0.32 | Forty 0.02 | Three Cone | Weight 0.91 | |
Rank 21 | Player LaBryan Ray | College Alabama | Age 24.4 | Model 0.01 | Draft Capital 0.33 | Adj. Production 0 | TFLs Per Game 0.05 | Team Strenght 0.89 | Adj. SPARQ 0.03 | Forty 0.4 | Three Cone 0.52 | Weight 0.03 | |
Rank 22 | Player Noah Elliss | College Idaho | Age 23.08 | Model 0 | Draft Capital 0.14 | Adj. Production | TFLs Per Game | Team Strenght 0.22 | Adj. SPARQ 0.03 | Forty 0.01 | Three Cone | Weight 0.97 |
Jordan Davis (94th percentile) set a new defensive tackle record in adjusted SPARQ athleticism, though we didn't get agility drills from him. Who cares? Davis has 97th percentile speed with 96th percentile weight. At worst, Davis is a disruptive two-down nose tackle. At best, Davis allows defenses to play in two-high shells because he can two-gap and throw centers around the field with ease. His 24th percentile adjusted production is the primary concern here, but 2021 Georgia is one of the rare teams that had enough DL talent to force a true rotation. Anywhere in the 8th to 17th range is fair game to me in this class. Screw positional value. Davis is fun as hell.
DeMarvin Neal (85th percentile) is popping in the model with 97th percentile adjusted production and a 97th percentile three cone. He's way undersized (3rd percentile weight), but he is a disruptive player coming out of the SEC. My hot take is that he's a better prospect than Devonte Wyatt (73rd percentile), who is 24 years old with 28th percentile tackles for loss per game. Wyatt's 93rd percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism is carrying a lot of weight right now. Undersized 21-year-old DT Perrion Winfrey (78th percentile) and elite athlete Travis Jones (68th percentile) round out the defensive tackle class early on. Everyone else is sub-50th percentile.
2022 EDGE Prospect Rankings
Rank 1 | Player Aidan Hutchinson | College Michigan | Age 21.72 | Model 0.99 | Draft Capital 1 | Adj. Production 0.95 | TFLs 0.57 | Team Strength 0.91 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.76 | Weight 0.41 | Forty 0.56 | Three Cone 0.99 | |
Rank 2 | Player Kayvon Thibodeaux | College Oregon | Age 21.37 | Model 0.97 | Draft Capital 0.99 | Adj. Production 0.9 | TFLs 0.59 | Team Strength 0.44 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.75 | Weight 0.29 | Forty 0.88 | Three Cone 0.5 | |
Rank 3 | Player Travon Walker | College Georgia | Age 21.36 | Model 0.97 | Draft Capital 0.97 | Adj. Production 0.76 | TFLs 0.05 | Team Strength 0.99 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.98 | Weight 0.75 | Forty 0.97 | Three Cone 0.94 | |
Rank 4 | Player Jermaine Johnson | College Florida State | Age 23.31 | Model 0.88 | Draft Capital 0.93 | Adj. Production 0.59 | TFLs 0.81 | Team Strength 0.29 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.88 | Weight 0.29 | Forty 0.88 | Three Cone | |
Rank 5 | Player George Karlaftis | College Purdue | Age 21.07 | Model 0.86 | Draft Capital 0.88 | Adj. Production 0.85 | TFLs 0.27 | Team Strength 0.61 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.62 | Weight 0.59 | Forty 0.49 | Three Cone | |
Rank 6 | Player David Ojabo | College Michigan | Age 21.95 | Model 0.82 | Draft Capital 0.79 | Adj. Production 0.84 | TFLs 0.34 | Team Strength 0.91 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.81 | Weight 0.17 | Forty 0.92 | Three Cone | |
Rank 7 | Player Arnold Ebiketie | College Penn State | Age 23.26 | Model 0.75 | Draft Capital 0.78 | Adj. Production 0.6 | TFLs 0.82 | Team Strength 0.63 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.91 | Weight 0.17 | Forty 0.77 | Three Cone 0.89 | |
Rank 8 | Player Drake Jackson | College USC | Age 21.04 | Model 0.71 | Draft Capital 0.71 | Adj. Production 0.67 | TFLs 0.21 | Team Strength 0.22 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.87 | Weight 0.29 | Forty | Three Cone 0.71 | |
Rank 9 | Player DeAngelo Malone | College Western Kentucky | Age 22.79 | Model 0.69 | Draft Capital 0.48 | Adj. Production 0.92 | TFLs 0.66 | Team Strength 0.52 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.81 | Weight 0.06 | Forty 0.93 | Three Cone 0.78 | |
Rank 10 | Player Cameron Thomas | College San Diego State | Age 22.31 | Model 0.64 | Draft Capital 0.66 | Adj. Production 0.7 | TFLs 0.82 | Team Strength 0.45 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.63 | Weight 0.64 | Forty | Three Cone 0.91 | |
Rank 11 | Player Nik Bonitto | College Oklahoma | Age 22.59 | Model 0.63 | Draft Capital 0.59 | Adj. Production 0.63 | TFLs 0.77 | Team Strength 0.66 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.85 | Weight 0.12 | Forty 0.93 | Three Cone 0.77 | |
Rank 12 | Player Boye Mafe | College Minnesota | Age 23.41 | Model 0.62 | Draft Capital 0.8 | Adj. Production 0.1 | TFLs 0.27 | Team Strength 0.58 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.92 | Weight 0.44 | Forty 0.96 | Three Cone 0.49 | |
Rank 13 | Player Josh Paschal | College Kentucky | Age 22.36 | Model 0.59 | Draft Capital 0.62 | Adj. Production 0.59 | TFLs 0.66 | Team Strength 0.54 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.72 | Weight 0.67 | Forty 0.49 | Three Cone | |
Rank 14 | Player Sam Williams | College Ole Miss | Age 23.08 | Model 0.57 | Draft Capital 0.52 | Adj. Production 0.36 | TFLs 0.56 | Team Strength 0.65 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.97 | Weight 0.44 | Forty 0.98 | Three Cone 0.71 | |
Rank 15 | Player Logan Hall | College Houston | Age 22.02 | Model 0.51 | Draft Capital 0.74 | Adj. Production 0.47 | TFLs 0.49 | Team Strength 0.53 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.16 | Weight 0.89 | Forty 0.2 | Three Cone 0.46 | |
Rank 16 | Player Amare Barno | College Virginia Tech | Age 23.01 | Model 0.36 | Draft Capital 0.42 | Adj. Production 0.07 | TFLs 0.04 | Team Strength 0.27 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.98 | Weight 0.11 | Forty 1 | Three Cone | |
Rank 17 | Player Kingsley Enagbare | College South Carolina | Age 22.28 | Model 0.35 | Draft Capital 0.58 | Adj. Production 0.34 | TFLs 0.06 | Team Strength 0.34 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.27 | Weight 0.38 | Forty 0.23 | Three Cone 0.4 | |
Rank 18 | Player Alex Wright | College Alabama-Birmingham | Age 21.65 | Model 0.32 | Draft Capital 0.21 | Adj. Production 0.75 | TFLs 0.11 | Team Strength 0.37 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.29 | Weight 0.71 | Forty | Three Cone 0.21 | |
Rank 19 | Player Myjai Sanders | College Cincinnati | Age 23.79 | Model 0.32 | Draft Capital 0.55 | Adj. Production 0.22 | TFLs 0.04 | Team Strength 0.81 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.51 | Weight 0 | Forty 0.73 | Three Cone | |
Rank 20 | Player Tyreke Smith | College Ohio State | Age 22.21 | Model 0.28 | Draft Capital 0.42 | Adj. Production 0.4 | TFLs 0.02 | Team Strength 0.9 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.38 | Weight 0.29 | Forty 0.24 | Three Cone 0.78 | |
Rank 21 | Player Micheal Clemons | College Texas A&M | Age 24.69 | Model 0.24 | Draft Capital 0.41 | Adj. Production 0.22 | TFLs 0.49 | Team Strength 0.62 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.45 | Weight 0.52 | Forty | Three Cone 0.59 | |
Rank 22 | Player Jeffrey Gunter | College Coastal Carolina | Age 22.91 | Model 0.23 | Draft Capital 0.25 | Adj. Production 0.25 | TFLs 0.18 | Team Strength 0.37 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.71 | Weight 0.38 | Forty 0.65 | Three Cone 0.54 | |
Rank 23 | Player Christopher Allen | College Alabama | Age 23.71 | Model 0.19 | Draft Capital 0.27 | Adj. Production 0.29 | TFLs 0.58 | Team Strength 0.9 | Ad.j SPARQ | Weight 0.05 | Forty | Three Cone | |
Rank 24 | Player Isaiah Thomas | College Oklahoma | Age 23.4 | Model 0.17 | Draft Capital 0.33 | Adj. Production 0.24 | TFLs 0.29 | Team Strength 0.66 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.39 | Weight 0.59 | Forty 0.65 | Three Cone 0.09 | |
Rank 25 | Player Zachary Carter | College Florida | Age 23.06 | Model 0.15 | Draft Capital 0.52 | Adj. Production 0.11 | TFLs 0.36 | Team Strength 0.39 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.14 | Weight 0.88 | Forty 0.07 | Three Cone 0.49 | |
Rank 26 | Player Tyree Johnson | College Texas A&M | Age 22.94 | Model 0.14 | Draft Capital 0.12 | Adj. Production 0.28 | TFLs 0.26 | Team Strength 0.62 | Ad.j SPARQ | Weight 0.12 | Forty | Three Cone | |
Rank 27 | Player Dominique Robinson | College Miami (OH) | Age 23.82 | Model 0.06 | Draft Capital 0.28 | Adj. Production 0.03 | TFLs 0.18 | Team Strength 0.26 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.63 | Weight 0.26 | Forty 0.59 | Three Cone 0.6 | |
Rank 28 | Player Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa | College Notre Dame | Age 23.97 | Model 0.04 | Draft Capital 0.02 | Adj. Production 0.1 | TFLs 0.07 | Team Strength 0.83 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.42 | Weight 0.69 | Forty 0.39 | Three Cone | |
Rank 29 | Player Esezi Otomewo | College Minnesota | Age 23.14 | Model 0.02 | Draft Capital 0.12 | Adj. Production 0.05 | TFLs 0.01 | Team Strength 0.58 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.44 | Weight 0.88 | Forty | Three Cone 0.54 | |
Rank 30 | Player Tre Williams | College Arkansas | Age | Model 0 | Draft Capital 0.02 | Adj. Production 0.06 | TFLs 0.12 | Team Strength 0.65 | Ad.j SPARQ 0.01 | Weight 0.26 | Forty 0.02 | Three Cone 0.59 |
The edge class looks decent, especially in a class that's down in general. There will be three, maybe four, edge rushers that will go top-10.
Aidan Hutchinson (99th percentile) is the headliner after showing 95th percentile adjusted production as a senior. He checked boxes as the Combine with 76th percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism, but Hutchinson has clear pros and cons. His three cone is in the 99th percentile. His arms are 7th percentile. His weight is 41st percentile. I think he'll be a pretty good, not elite player in the NFL. My model's projected 1st overall draft capital is likely slightly overrating him a bit because in a normal class, Hutchinson gets drafted 7th or so overall.
Like Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux (97th percentile) is a little undersized (29th percentile weight) but is an above-average athlete (75th percentile). Where they win is completely different. Thibodeaux is an explosive straight-line player (88th percentile forty), while Hutchinson wins with pass-rushing moves and more bend. The advantage in Thibodeaux's profile is that he was a 5-star recruit who balled out as a freshman and then declared as a true junior. There's more developmental upside here.
Travon Walker (97th percentile) might surprise people with this high of a projection. His tackles for loss per game is in the bottom 5th percentile among drafted edge rushers since 2005, but there's a lot of context that my model can also pick up. Georgia's defense was elite, and Walker is a 21-year-old early declare. When in doubt, find SEC early declares, especially ones with 98th percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism, a 97th percentile forty, and a 94th percentile three cone. Walker will need time to develop, but he has the background and tools of an All Pro pass rusher. In a normal draft, Walker is the flier at 12th overall. In this weak draft, he belongs in the top-five discussion.
Jermaine Johnson (88th percentile), George Karlaftis (86th percentile), and David Ojabo (82nd overall) are the next tier. My model is slightly lower than the market on the first two; Johnson is 23.31 years old with 29th percentile weight and Karlaftis is a 62nd overall adjusted SPARQ athlete. Ojabo is a more interesting prospect. If not for a pre-draft process torn achilles, he'd be close to a 90th percentile prospect. He has 84th percentile adjusted production, is 21.9 years old, and had 81st percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism. In a down class, I'd be open to taking Ojabo early in the 2nd round, as he still ranks ahead of the following edge rushers even with tanked projected draft capital.
Arnold Ebiketie (75th percentile) is projected well ahead of Boye Mafe (62nd percentile) despite being projected to go slightly later in the draft. His 82nd percentile TFLs dwarf Mafe's 27th percentile. My model even likes 21-year-old Drake Jackson (71st percentile prospect), the highly productive DeAngelo Malone (69th percentile), bendy Cameron Thomas (64th percentile), and high-end athlete Nik Bonitto (63rd percentile) more than Mafe.
2022 LB Prospect Rankings
Rank 1 | Player Leo Chenal | College Wisconsin | Age 21.51 | Model 0.94 | Draft Capital 0.82 | Adj. Production 1 | Tackles Per Game 0.9 | Team Strength 0.75 | Adj. SPARQ 0.98 | Forty 0.85 | Weight 0.9 | |
Rank 2 | Player Nakobe Dean | College Georgia | Age 21.38 | Model 0.93 | Draft Capital 0.93 | Adj. Production 0.91 | Tackles Per Game 0.1 | Team Strength 0.98 | Adj. SPARQ | Forty | Weight 0.08 | |
Rank 3 | Player Quay Walker | College Georgia | Age 21.97 | Model 0.91 | Draft Capital 0.88 | Adj. Production 0.89 | Tackles Per Game 0.12 | Team Strength 0.98 | Adj. SPARQ 0.82 | Forty 0.88 | Weight 0.57 | |
Rank 4 | Player Devin Lloyd | College Utah | Age 23.58 | Model 0.91 | Draft Capital 0.94 | Adj. Production 0.59 | Tackles Per Game 0.61 | Team Strength 0.69 | Adj. SPARQ 0.5 | Forty 0.5 | Weight 0.37 | |
Rank 5 | Player Christian Harris | College Alabama | Age 21.28 | Model 0.9 | Draft Capital 0.83 | Adj. Production 0.9 | Tackles Per Game 0.16 | Team Strength 0.9 | Adj. SPARQ 0.9 | Forty 0.96 | Weight 0.04 | |
Rank 6 | Player Brandon Smith | College Penn State | Age 21.04 | Model 0.89 | Draft Capital 0.78 | Adj. Production 0.87 | Tackles Per Game 0.4 | Team Strength 0.64 | Adj. SPARQ 0.96 | Forty 0.88 | Weight 0.9 | |
Rank 7 | Player Damone Clark | College LSU | Age 21.83 | Model 0.83 | Draft Capital 0.63 | Adj. Production 0.98 | Tackles Per Game 0.95 | Team Strength 0.38 | Adj. SPARQ 0.82 | Forty 0.79 | Weight 0.47 | |
Rank 8 | Player Channing Tindall | College Georgia | Age 22.08 | Model 0.81 | Draft Capital 0.81 | Adj. Production 0.58 | Tackles Per Game 0.07 | Team Strength 0.98 | Adj. SPARQ 0.91 | Forty 0.94 | Weight 0.11 | |
Rank 9 | Player Chad Muma | College Wyoming | Age 22.69 | Model 0.76 | Draft Capital 0.82 | Adj. Production 0.66 | Tackles Per Game 0.92 | Team Strength 0.15 | Adj. SPARQ 0.55 | Forty 0.61 | Weight 0.47 | |
Rank 10 | Player Troy Andersen | College Montana State | Age 23.01 | Model 0.74 | Draft Capital 0.8 | Adj. Production 0.12 | Tackles Per Game 0.84 | Team Strength 0 | Adj. SPARQ 1 | Forty 0.98 | Weight 0.68 | |
Rank 11 | Player Malcolm Rodriguez | College Oklahoma State | Age 23.08 | Model 0.67 | Draft Capital 0.57 | Adj. Production 0.64 | Tackles Per Game 0.8 | Team Strength 0.77 | Adj. SPARQ 0.88 | Forty 0.88 | Weight 0.17 | |
Rank 12 | Player Darrian Beavers | College Cincinnati | Age 22.81 | Model 0.66 | Draft Capital 0.69 | Adj. Production 0.67 | Tackles Per Game 0.45 | Team Strength 0.81 | Adj. SPARQ 0.4 | Forty 0.42 | Weight 0.37 | |
Rank 13 | Player Brian Asamoah | College Oklahoma | Age 22.08 | Model 0.63 | Draft Capital 0.65 | Adj. Production 0.54 | Tackles Per Game 0.39 | Team Strength 0.67 | Adj. SPARQ 0.64 | Forty 0.82 | Weight 0.04 | |
Rank 14 | Player Terrel Bernard | College Baylor | Age 22.98 | Model 0.57 | Draft Capital 0.46 | Adj. Production 0.78 | Tackles Per Game 0.61 | Team Strength 0.72 | Adj. SPARQ 0.53 | Forty 0.74 | Weight 0.02 | |
Rank 15 | Player Mike Rose | College Iowa State | Age 21.93 | Model 0.54 | Draft Capital 0.2 | Adj. Production 0.88 | Tackles Per Game 0.39 | Team Strength 0.55 | Adj. SPARQ 0.56 | Forty 0.42 | Weight 0.74 | |
Rank 16 | Player Jack Sanborn | College Wisconsin | Age 21.75 | Model 0.51 | Draft Capital 0.19 | Adj. Production 0.94 | Tackles Per Game 0.42 | Team Strength 0.75 | Adj. SPARQ 0.28 | Forty 0.28 | Weight 0.24 | |
Rank 17 | Player Micah McFadden | College Indiana | Age 22.32 | Model 0.45 | Draft Capital 0.36 | Adj. Production 0.43 | Tackles Per Game 0.34 | Team Strength 0.13 | Adj. SPARQ 0.85 | Forty 0.66 | Weight 0.52 | |
Rank 18 | Player D'Marco Jackson | College Appalachian State | Age | Model 0.42 | Draft Capital 0.31 | Adj. Production 0.5 | Tackles Per Game 0.7 | Team Strength 0.49 | Adj. SPARQ 0.81 | Forty 0.82 | Weight 0.21 | |
Rank 19 | Player Chance Campbell | College Ole Miss | Age 22.56 | Model 0.4 | Draft Capital 0.06 | Adj. Production 0.74 | Tackles Per Game 0.68 | Team Strength 0.65 | Adj. SPARQ 0.72 | Forty 0.79 | Weight 0.17 | |
Rank 20 | Player Zakoby McClain | College Auburn | Age 22.14 | Model 0.26 | Draft Capital 0.27 | Adj. Production 0.6 | Tackles Per Game 0.6 | Team Strength 0.47 | Adj. SPARQ 0.17 | Forty 0.42 | Weight 0.06 | |
Rank 21 | Player JoJo Domann | College Nebraska | Age 24.75 | Model 0.22 | Draft Capital 0.48 | Adj. Production 0.12 | Tackles Per Game 0.47 | Team Strength 0.48 | Adj. SPARQ 0.42 | Forty 0.66 | Weight 0.06 | |
Rank 22 | Player Josh Ross | College Michigan | Age 22.49 | Model 0.21 | Draft Capital 0.06 | Adj. Production 0.77 | Tackles Per Game 0.55 | Team Strength 0.91 | Adj. SPARQ 0.04 | Forty 0.16 | Weight 0.05 | |
Rank 23 | Player Baylon Spector | College Clemson | Age 23.52 | Model 0.2 | Draft Capital 0.14 | Adj. Production 0.21 | Tackles Per Game 0.4 | Team Strength 0.65 | Adj. SPARQ 0.68 | Forty 0.69 | Weight 0.21 | |
Rank 24 | Player Jesse Luketa | College Penn State | Age | Model 0.16 | Draft Capital 0.5 | Adj. Production 0.19 | Tackles Per Game 0.13 | Team Strength 0.64 | Adj. SPARQ 0.12 | Forty 0.03 | Weight 0.95 | |
Rank 25 | Player Darien Butler | College Arizona State | Age 22.16 | Model 0.16 | Draft Capital 0.06 | Adj. Production 0.53 | Tackles Per Game 0.4 | Team Strength 0.46 | Adj. SPARQ | Forty | Weight 0.01 | |
Rank 26 | Player Aaron Hansford | College Texas A&M | Age 24.18 | Model 0.12 | Draft Capital 0.21 | Adj. Production 0.13 | Tackles Per Game 0.53 | Team Strength 0.61 | Adj. SPARQ 0.41 | Forty 0.58 | Weight 0.47 | |
Rank 27 | Player Nephi Sewell | College Utah | Age 23.36 | Model 0.11 | Draft Capital 0.06 | Adj. Production 0.32 | Tackles Per Game 0.42 | Team Strength 0.69 | Adj. SPARQ 0.28 | Forty 0.47 | Weight 0.04 | |
Rank 28 | Player Jeremiah Gemmel | College North Carolina | Age 23.48 | Model 0.09 | Draft Capital 0.32 | Adj. Production 0.13 | Tackles Per Game 0.28 | Team Strength 0.34 | Adj. SPARQ | Forty | Weight 0.04 | |
Rank 29 | Player Jake Hansen | College Illinois | Age 23.86 | Model 0.06 | Draft Capital 0.06 | Adj. Production 0.12 | Tackles Per Game 0.33 | Team Strength 0.29 | Adj. SPARQ | Forty | Weight 0.43 | |
Rank 30 | Player Jeremiah Moon | College Florida | Age 23.69 | Model 0.04 | Draft Capital 0.19 | Adj. Production 0.05 | Tackles Per Game 0.1 | Team Strength 0.37 | Adj. SPARQ 0.3 | Forty 0.21 | Weight 0.88 | |
Rank 31 | Player Nate Landman | College Colorado | Age 23.44 | Model 0.04 | Draft Capital 0.06 | Adj. Production 0.26 | Tackles Per Game 0.77 | Team Strength 0.1 | Adj. SPARQ 0.07 | Forty 0.05 | Weight 0.43 | |
Rank 32 | Player Isaiah Graham-Mobley | College Boston College | Age 23.75 | Model 0.03 | Draft Capital 0.06 | Adj. Production 0.05 | Tackles Per Game 0.23 | Team Strength 0.2 | Adj. SPARQ 0.42 | Forty 0.61 | Weight 0.11 |
There are six off-ball LBs who project between 89th-94th percentile prospects, and all six come from Power 5 schools. Leo Chenal (94th percentile) is arguably receiving the least buzz of them, but he's the prospect who pops the most analytically. He's an early-declare from Wisconsin with 90th percentile tackles per game on a good Wisconsin defense, and then he had 98th percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism with an 85th percentile forty on 90th percentile weight. What am I missing here? He's 21.5 years old.
Nakobe Dean (93rd percentile) was a staple to one of the best college defenses of all time and is only 21.4 years old, but he only had 10th percentile tackles per game, opted not to test pre-draft, and has bottom 8th percentile weight. He might be situation specific. His teammate Quay Walker (91st percentile) has the requisite 57th percentile size and showcased 82nd percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism. He just wasn't an early declare like Dean.
Devin Lloyd (91st percentile) is getting love from the NFL/college insiders, but there are red flags with his profile. He's 23.6 years old, only had 61st percentile tackles per game, and is a 50th percentile adjusted SPARQ athlete. Lloyd looks like a serviceable starter, but the elite LBs typically offer more as prospects. Alabama's Christian Harris (90th percentile) and Penn State's Brandon Smith (89th percentile) are more than two years younger and are better athletes. Smith in particular has 96th percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism.
As for Day 2 depth, LSU's Damone Clark (83rd percentile) is the analytics darling if his medicals check out. Georgia's Channing Tindall (81st percentile) is undersized but has 94th percentile speed. Wyoming's Chad Muma (76th percentile) had 92nd percentile tackles per game with a 61st percentile forty. And Montana State's Troy Andersen (74th percentile) is a 100th percentile athlete at the position.
2022 CB Prospect Rankings
Rank 1 | Player Ahmad Gardner | College Cincinnati | Age 21.66 | Model 0.98 | Draft Capital 0.99 | Adj. Production 0.74 | Team Strength 0.83 | Adj. SPARQ 0.76 | Height 0.99 | Forty 0.71 | Three Cone | |
Rank 2 | Player Derek Stingley Jr. | College LSU | Age 20.86 | Model 0.96 | Draft Capital 0.98 | Adj. Production 0.91 | Team Strength 0.42 | Adj. SPARQ 0.37 | Height 0.55 | Forty 0.62 | Three Cone 0.34 | |
Rank 3 | Player Andrew Booth Jr. | College Clemson | Age 21.58 | Model 0.91 | Draft Capital 0.91 | Adj. Production 0.78 | Team Strength 0.68 | Adj. SPARQ | Height 0.55 | Forty | Three Cone | |
Rank 4 | Player Trent McDuffie | College Washington | Age 21.63 | Model 0.86 | Draft Capital 0.92 | Adj. Production 0.34 | Team Strength 0.21 | Adj. SPARQ 0.56 | Height 0.32 | Forty 0.62 | Three Cone | |
Rank 5 | Player Kaiir Elam | College Florida | Age 20.98 | Model 0.8 | Draft Capital 0.85 | Adj. Production 0.56 | Team Strength 0.41 | Adj. SPARQ 0.53 | Height 0.91 | Forty 0.8 | Three Cone 0.36 | |
Rank 6 | Player Tariq Woolen | College UTSA | Age 22.99 | Model 0.74 | Draft Capital 0.74 | Adj. Production 0.28 | Team Strength 0.46 | Adj. SPARQ 1 | Height 1 | Forty 0.99 | Three Cone 0.17 | |
Rank 7 | Player Roger McCreary | College Auburn | Age 22.22 | Model 0.68 | Draft Capital 0.78 | Adj. Production 0.64 | Team Strength 0.52 | Adj. SPARQ 0.12 | Height 0.32 | Forty 0.34 | Three Cone 0.4 | |
Rank 8 | Player Kyler Gordon | College Washington | Age 22.36 | Model 0.66 | Draft Capital 0.81 | Adj. Production 0.16 | Team Strength 0.21 | Adj. SPARQ 0.59 | Height 0.55 | Forty 0.23 | Three Cone 0.93 | |
Rank 9 | Player Martin Emerson | College Mississippi State | Age 21.59 | Model 0.56 | Draft Capital 0.71 | Adj. Production 0.41 | Team Strength 0.43 | Adj. SPARQ 0.33 | Height 0.91 | Forty 0.18 | Three Cone 0.61 | |
Rank 10 | Player Cam Taylor-Britt | College Nebraska | Age 22.54 | Model 0.54 | Draft Capital 0.58 | Adj. Production 0.48 | Team Strength 0.53 | Adj. SPARQ 0.59 | Height 0.32 | Forty 0.85 | Three Cone 0.57 | |