2022 NFL Draft Positional Rankings, Per Analytics (Offense)
My analytics only 2022 NFL Draft Positional Rankings are just that -- the results of what my model spits out at me. I have my personal RB and WR rankings after watching their film. But this process is at least interesting and at best actionable.
My model takes projected draft capital (essentially a film grade), age, college production, team strength, and athleticism to create an NFL projection. I then compare that projection to all drafted players since 2005 at that position to create prospect percentiles. The best prospects will have a 100th percentile score. Bad prospects will have 5th percentile scores. 50th percentile is average obviously. The best prospects in my model often hit the following:
Projected to go early in the draft
Are 20 or 21 years old with a bonus for early declares
Played on elite college teams and were 4- or 5-star recruits
Were very productive players in their final season
Were early producers if they didn't go to elite football programs
Tested well at the Combine
In this column, you'll see two primary metrics: 1) "Adjusted Production" is a combination of the most predictive on-field stats, college team strength, and age, so an older prospect who had more yards at a bad school very well could have a lower adjusted production score compared to a younger prospect on a good team. That's because the latter is more predictive of NFL success. ... 2) "Adjusted SPARQ Athleticism" is an all-encompassing workout score, but unlike other athletic measurables, this one is specific to each position. This is key because the athleticism required at CB is far different than it is at DT. I even have split RB and WR into two different models because small RBs typically are used out in space as pass-catchers and big RBs are asked to run up the middle. Ditto for small and big WRs.
In general, the most predictive stat is draft capital, followed by adjusted production and then adjusted SPARQ athleticism.
2022 QB Prospect Rankings
Rank 1 | Player Kenny Pickett | College Pittsburgh | Age 23.8 | Model 0.89 | Draft Capital 0.82 | Total QBR 0.77 | Total EPA 0.94 | Rushing EPA 0.83 | Schedule 0.29 | |
Rank 2 | Player Matt Corral | College Mississippi | Age 23.1 | Model 0.83 | Draft Capital 0.7 | Total QBR 0.74 | Total EPA 0.77 | Rushing EPA 0.93 | Schedule 0.6 | |
Rank 3 | Player Malik Willis | College Liberty | Age 22.8 | Model 0.78 | Draft Capital 0.79 | Total QBR 0.37 | Total EPA 0.67 | Rushing EPA 0.99 | Schedule 0.14 | |
Rank 4 | Player Desmond Ridder | College Cincinnati | Age 22.6 | Model 0.74 | Draft Capital 0.73 | Total QBR 0.43 | Total EPA 0.58 | Rushing EPA 0.85 | Schedule 0.29 | |
Rank 5 | Player Sam Howell | College North Carolina | Age 21.5 | Model 0.71 | Draft Capital 0.64 | Total QBR 0.61 | Total EPA 0.62 | Rushing EPA 0.96 | Schedule 0.4 | |
Rank 6 | Player Bailey Zappe | College Western Kentucky | Age 22.9 | Model 0.6 | Draft Capital 0.42 | Total QBR 0.69 | Total EPA 0.97 | Rushing EPA 0.14 | Schedule 0.19 | |
Rank 7 | Player Carson Strong | College Nevada | Age 22.5 | Model 0.54 | Draft Capital 0.57 | Total QBR 0.19 | Total EPA 0.62 | Rushing EPA 0.07 | Schedule 0.2 | |
Rank 8 | Player Brock Purdy | College Iowa State | Age 22.2 | Model 0.27 | Draft Capital 0.17 | Total QBR 0.37 | Total EPA 0.42 | Rushing EPA 0.29 | Schedule 0.5 | |
Rank 9 | Player Kaleb Eleby | College Western Michigan | Age 22 | Model 0.24 | Draft Capital 0.27 | Total QBR 0.11 | Total EPA 0.35 | Rushing EPA 0.16 | Schedule 0.18 | |
Rank 10 | Player Jack Coan | College Notre Dame | Age 23.3 | Model 0.18 | Draft Capital 0.17 | Total QBR 0.46 | Total EPA 0.31 | Rushing EPA 0.11 | Schedule 0.58 | |
Rank 11 | Player Skylar Thompson | College Kansas State | Age 24.8 | Model 0.17 | Draft Capital 0.17 | Total QBR 0.62 | Total EPA 0.19 | Rushing EPA 0.47 | Schedule 0.43 | |
Rank 12 | Player Dustin Crum | College Kent State | Age 23.2 | Model 0.15 | Draft Capital 0.02 | Total QBR 0.54 | Total EPA 0.82 | Rushing EPA 0.96 | Schedule 0.14 | |
Rank 13 | Player D'Eriq King | College Miami (FL) | Age 24.6 | Model 0.13 | Draft Capital 0.02 | Total QBR 0.67 | Total EPA 0.57 | Rushing EPA 0.77 | Schedule 0.52 | |
Rank 14 | Player Tanner McKee | College Stanford | Age 21.9 | Model 0.01 | Draft Capital 0.02 | Total QBR 0.21 | Total EPA 0.09 | Rushing EPA 0.2 | Schedule 0.56 | |
Rank 15 | Player Chase Garbers | College California | Age 22.8 | Model 0.01 | Draft Capital 0.02 | Total QBR 0.19 | Total EPA 0.2 | Rushing EPA 0.84 | Schedule 0.2 |
Overall, this is a bad QB class.
Pickett is a late-Round 1 prospect (89th percentile) to me. He is in a tier of his own here after posting 94th percentile total expected points added (EPA) as a redshirt senior, and his 83rd percentile rushing EPA is on par with the rest of the consensus top-five QBs. But he's older and faced a poor strength of schedule when he popped off. My full Kenny Pickett report is here.
There are upside cases with Matt Corral (83rd percentile) and Malik Willis (78th percentile), but they require system changes and development (see my Malik Willis report). Desmond Ridder (74th percentile) and Sam Howell (71st percentile) are likely backups after posting mediocre scores in all passing categories. Beyond that, Bailey Zappe (60th percentile) and Carson Strong (54th percentile) are complete QB2 dart throws on opposite sides of the physical spectrum.
2022 RB Prospect Rankings
Rank 1 | Player Breece Hall | College Iowa State | Age 20.9 | Model 0.96 | Draft Capital 0.89 | Adj SPARQ 0.95 | Adj Production 0.94 | Total Yards PG 0.83 | Receiving Yards PG 0.8 | Team Strength 0.53 | |
Rank 2 | Player Kenneth Walker III | College Michigan State | Age 21.5 | Model 0.89 | Draft Capital 0.86 | Adj SPARQ 0.88 | Adj Production 0.82 | Total Yards PG 0.79 | Receiving Yards PG 0.19 | Team Strength 0.75 | |
Rank 3 | Player Isaiah Spiller | College Texas A&M | Age 20.7 | Model 0.7 | Draft Capital 0.72 | Adj SPARQ 0.23 | Adj Production 0.63 | Total Yards PG 0.34 | Receiving Yards PG 0.53 | Team Strength 0.6 | |
Rank 4 | Player Zamir White | College Georgia | Age 22.6 | Model 0.69 | Draft Capital 0.67 | Adj SPARQ 0.97 | Adj Production 0.32 | Total Yards PG 0.07 | Receiving Yards PG 0.1 | Team Strength 0.98 | |
Rank 5 | Player Tyler Allgeier | College BYU | Age 22 | Model 0.67 | Draft Capital 0.63 | Adj SPARQ 0.44 | Adj Production 0.75 | Total Yards PG 0.75 | Receiving Yards PG 0.51 | Team Strength 0.43 | |
Rank 6 | Player James Cook | College Georgia | Age 22.6 | Model 0.65 | Draft Capital 0.67 | Adj SPARQ 0.54 | Adj Production 0.43 | Total Yards PG 0.1 | Receiving Yards PG 0.65 | Team Strength 0.98 | |
Rank 7 | Player Rachaad White | College Arizona State | Age 23.3 | Model 0.6 | Draft Capital 0.45 | Adj SPARQ 0.84 | Adj Production 0.66 | Total Yards PG 0.69 | Receiving Yards PG 0.96 | Team Strength 0.39 | |
Rank 8 | Player Brian Robinson Jr. | College Alabama | Age 23.1 | Model 0.57 | Draft Capital 0.57 | Adj SPARQ 0.53 | Adj Production 0.41 | Total Yards PG 0.54 | Receiving Yards PG 0.71 | Team Strength 0.91 | |
Rank 9 | Player Kyren Williams | College Notre Dame | Age 21.7 | Model 0.51 | Draft Capital 0.47 | Adj SPARQ 0.13 | Adj Production 0.79 | Total Yards PG 0.5 | Receiving Yards PG 0.88 | Team Strength 0.82 | |
Rank 10 | Player Jerome Ford | College Cincinnati | Age 22.6 | Model 0.42 | Draft Capital 0.45 | Adj SPARQ 0.07 | Adj Production 0.6 | Total Yards PG 0.55 | Receiving Yards PG 0.58 | Team Strength 0.8 | |
Rank 11 | Player Tyler Badie | College Missouri | Age 22.2 | Model 0.42 | Draft Capital 0.37 | Adj SPARQ 0.32 | Adj Production 0.58 | Total Yards PG 0.91 | Receiving Yards PG 0.84 | Team Strength 0.17 | |
Rank 12 | Player Dameon Pierce | College Florida | Age 22.2 | Model 0.37 | Draft Capital 0.43 | Adj SPARQ 0.4 | Adj Production 0.17 | Total Yards PG 0.07 | Receiving Yards PG 0.56 | Team Strength 0.3 | |
Rank 13 | Player Tyler Goodson | College Iowa | Age 21.5 | Model 0.28 | Draft Capital 0.17 | Adj SPARQ 0.75 | Adj Production 0.41 | Total Yards PG 0.44 | Receiving Yards PG 0.65 | Team Strength 0.54 | |
Rank 14 | Player Abram Smith | College Baylor | Age 23.6 | Model 0.28 | Draft Capital 0.27 | Adj SPARQ 0.47 | Adj Production 0.28 | Total Yards PG 0.56 | Receiving Yards PG 0.12 | Team Strength 0.7 | |
Rank 15 | Player Hassan Haskins | College Michigan | Age 22.4 | Model 0.28 | Draft Capital 0.27 | Adj SPARQ | Adj Production 0.55 | Total Yards PG 0.39 | Receiving Yards PG 0.24 | Team Strength 0.92 | |
Rank 16 | Player Kennedy Brooks | College Oklahoma | Age 23.6 | Model 0.2 | Draft Capital 0.17 | Adj SPARQ 0.28 | Adj Production 0.38 | Total Yards PG 0.36 | Receiving Yards PG 0.12 | Team Strength 0.65 | |
Rank 17 | Player Sincere McCormick | College UTSA | Age 21.6 | Model 0.19 | Draft Capital 0.05 | Adj SPARQ 0.27 | Adj Production 0.65 | Total Yards PG 0.64 | Receiving Yards PG 0.46 | Team Strength 0.35 | |
Rank 18 | Player Tyrion Davis-Price | College LSU | Age 21.5 | Model 0.15 | Draft Capital 0.17 | Adj SPARQ 0.55 | Adj Production 0.15 | Total Yards PG 0.26 | Receiving Yards PG 0.11 | Team Strength 0.32 | |
Rank 19 | Player Snoop Conner | College Ole Miss | Age 22.1 | Model 0.13 | Draft Capital 0.17 | Adj SPARQ 0.38 | Adj Production 0.22 | Total Yards PG 0.05 | Receiving Yards PG 0.15 | Team Strength 0.63 | |
Rank 20 | Player Jerrion Ealy | College Ole Miss | Age 21.7 | Model 0.12 | Draft Capital 0.12 | Adj SPARQ 0.14 | Adj Production 0.42 | Total Yards PG 0.2 | Receiving Yards PG 0.62 | Team Strength 0.63 | |
Rank 21 | Player Trestan Ebner | College Baylor | Age 23.3 | Model 0.11 | Draft Capital 0.17 | Adj SPARQ 0.58 | Adj Production 0.07 | Total Yards PG 0.15 | Receiving Yards PG 0.69 | Team Strength 0.7 | |
Rank 22 | Player Max Borghi | College Washington State | Age 23 | Model 0.11 | Draft Capital 0.17 | Adj SPARQ 0.26 | Adj Production 0.2 | Total Yards PG 0.24 | Receiving Yards PG 0.39 | Team Strength 0.28 | |
Rank 23 | Player Jaylen Warren | College Oklahoma State | Age 23.5 | Model 0.11 | Draft Capital 0.05 | Adj SPARQ 0.42 | Adj Production 0.3 | Total Yards PG 0.48 | Receiving Yards PG 0.59 | Team Strength 0.76 | |
Rank 24 | Player Zonovan Knight | College North Carolina State | Age 21.1 | Model 0.09 | Draft Capital 0.05 | Adj SPARQ 0.29 | Adj Production 0.33 | Total Yards PG 0.14 | Receiving Yards PG 0.39 | Team Strength 0.57 | |
Rank 25 | Player Keaontay Ingram | College USC | Age 22.5 | Model 0.09 | Draft Capital 0.05 | Adj SPARQ 0.69 | Adj Production 0.15 | Total Yards PG 0.42 | Receiving Yards PG 0.51 | Team Strength 0.15 | |
Rank 26 | Player Isaih Pacheco | College Rutgers | Age 23.2 | Model 0.07 | Draft Capital 0.17 | Adj SPARQ 0.79 | Adj Production 0.01 | Total Yards PG 0.05 | Receiving Yards PG 0.02 | Team Strength 0.15 | |
Rank 27 | Player Leddie Brown | College West Virginia | Age 23.2 | Model 0.07 | Draft Capital 0.05 | Adj SPARQ 0.32 | Adj Production 0.19 | Total Yards PG 0.42 | Receiving Yards PG 0.62 | Team Strength 0.21 | |
Rank 28 | Player Ronnie Rivers | College Fresno State | Age 23.3 | Model 0.04 | Draft Capital 0.05 | Adj SPARQ 0.04 | Adj Production 0.2 | Total Yards PG 0.4 | Receiving Yards PG 0.92 | Team Strength 0.32 | |
Rank 29 | Player Jashaun Corbin | College Florida State | Age 21.7 | Model 0.04 | Draft Capital 0.05 | Adj SPARQ 0.07 | Adj Production 0.21 | Total Yards PG 0.24 | Receiving Yards PG 0.35 | Team Strength 0.18 | |
Rank 30 | Player D'vonte Price | College Florida International | Age 22.9 | Model 0.03 | Draft Capital 0.05 | Adj SPARQ 0.81 | Adj Production 0.01 | Total Yards PG 0.23 | Receiving Yards PG 0.24 | Team Strength 0.06 | |
Rank 31 | Player CJ Verdell | College Oregon | Age 22.7 | Model 0.01 | Draft Capital 0.05 | Adj SPARQ | Adj Production 0.36 | Total Yards PG 0.31 | Receiving Yards PG 0.56 | Team Strength 0.38 | |
Rank 32 | Player Kevin Harris | College South Carolina | Age 21.5 | Model 0.01 | Draft Capital 0.05 | Adj SPARQ 0.02 | Adj Production 0.18 | Total Yards PG 0.08 | Receiving Yards PG 0.2 | Team Strength 0.24 | |
Rank 33 | Player Ty Chandler | College North Carolina | Age 24 | Model 0.01 | Draft Capital 0.13 | Adj SPARQ 0.01 | Adj Production 0.06 | Total Yards PG 0.35 | Receiving Yards PG 0.56 | Team Strength 0.28 | |
Rank 34 | Player Greg Bell | College San Diego State | Age 23 | Model 0 | Draft Capital 0.05 | Adj SPARQ | Adj Production 0.08 | Total Yards PG 0.16 | Receiving Yards PG 0.01 | Team Strength 0.39 | |
Rank 35 | Player ZaQuandre White | College South Carolina | Age 23.4 | Model 0 | Draft Capital 0.05 | Adj SPARQ 0 | Adj Production 0.03 | Total Yards PG 0.15 | Receiving Yards PG 0.66 | Team Strength 0.24 | |
Rank 36 | Player Pierre Strong Jr. | College South Dakota State | Age 23.4 | Model | Draft Capital 0.41 | Adj SPARQ 0.94 | Adj Production | Total Yards PG | Receiving Yards PG | Team Strength |
I guess the RB class is fine because there is a lot of depth in that Round 4 range, but it's really a class of two at the top -- Breece Hall (96th percentile) and Kenneth Walker (89th percentile). Both are 88th percentile or better athletes, Power 5 players, and early declares. The primary difference in their analytical profiles is receiver. Hall has 80th percentile receiving yards per game. Walker, 19th percentile. Even with this, I'm in the minority by ranking Walker as my RB1 in this class.
There are seven RBs that are in the 50th to 70th percentile range, with a wide variety of playing styles. Isaiah Spiller, Zamir White, Tyler Allgeier, and Brian Robinson are the bigger backs. James Cook, Rachaad White, and Kyren Williams are pass-catching options.
2022 WR Prospect Rankings
Rank 1 | Player Jameson Williams | Player,Draft_Year Alabama | Age 21.1 | Model 0.97 | Draft Capital 0.96 | Adj. Production 0.96 | PPR PG 0.81 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.72 | Team Strength 0.9 | Adj. SPARQ | Weight 179 | |
Rank 2 | Player Garrett Wilson | Player,Draft_Year Ohio State | Age 21.8 | Model 0.97 | Draft Capital 0.97 | Adj. Production 0.95 | PPR PG 0.84 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.61 | Team Strength 0.89 | Adj. SPARQ 0.5 | Weight 183 | |
Rank 3 | Player Drake London | Player,Draft_Year USC | Age 20.8 | Model 0.97 | Draft Capital 0.96 | Adj. Production 0.94 | PPR PG 0.98 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.88 | Team Strength 0.12 | Adj. SPARQ | Weight 219 | |
Rank 4 | Player Chris Olave | Player,Draft_Year Ohio State | Age 21.8 | Model 0.94 | Draft Capital 0.95 | Adj. Production 0.91 | PPR PG 0.8 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.45 | Team Strength 0.89 | Adj. SPARQ 0.53 | Weight 187 | |
Rank 5 | Player Treylon Burks | Player,Draft_Year Arkansas | Age 22.1 | Model 0.9 | Draft Capital 0.92 | Adj. Production 0.86 | PPR PG 0.73 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.95 | Team Strength 0.61 | Adj. SPARQ 0.42 | Weight 225 | |
Rank 6 | Player Skyy Moore | Player,Draft_Year Western Michigan | Age 21.6 | Model 0.89 | Draft Capital 0.83 | Adj. Production 0.96 | PPR PG 0.88 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.96 | Team Strength 0.2 | Adj. SPARQ 0.64 | Weight 195 | |
Rank 7 | Player George Pickens | Player,Draft_Year Georgia | Age 21.2 | Model 0.86 | Draft Capital 0.85 | Adj. Production 0.88 | PPR PG 0.45 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.37 | Team Strength 0.89 | Adj. SPARQ 0.52 | Weight 195 | |
Rank 8 | Player Jahan Dotson | Player,Draft_Year Penn State | Age 22.1 | Model 0.82 | Draft Capital 0.87 | Adj. Production 0.75 | PPR PG 0.88 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.66 | Team Strength 0.59 | Adj. SPARQ 0.26 | Weight 178 | |
Rank 9 | Player Wan'Dale Robinson | Player,Draft_Year Kentucky | Age 21.3 | Model 0.77 | Draft Capital 0.66 | Adj. Production 0.97 | PPR PG 0.79 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.94 | Team Strength 0.49 | Adj. SPARQ 0.15 | Weight 178 | |
Rank 10 | Player Christian Watson | Player,Draft_Year North Dakota State | Age 23 | Model 0.72 | Draft Capital 0.85 | Adj. Production 0.25 | PPR PG 0.32 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.97 | Team Strength 0.01 | Adj. SPARQ 0.96 | Weight 208 | |
Rank 11 | Player John Metchie | Player,Draft_Year Alabama | Age 21.8 | Model 0.71 | Draft Capital 0.64 | Adj. Production 0.89 | PPR PG 0.71 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.49 | Team Strength 0.9 | Adj. SPARQ | Weight 187 | |
Rank 12 | Player David Bell | Player,Draft_Year Purdue | Age 21.4 | Model 0.71 | Draft Capital 0.72 | Adj. Production 0.88 | PPR PG 0.87 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.66 | Team Strength 0.57 | Adj. SPARQ 0.11 | Weight 212 | |
Rank 13 | Player Tyquan Thornton | Player,Draft_Year Baylor | Age 21.7 | Model 0.66 | Draft Capital 0.42 | Adj. Production 0.89 | PPR PG 0.45 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.65 | Team Strength 0.69 | Adj. SPARQ 0.87 | Weight 181 | |
Rank 14 | Player Alec Pierce | Player,Draft_Year Cincinnati | Age 22 | Model 0.63 | Draft Capital 0.69 | Adj. Production 0.51 | PPR PG 0.3 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.43 | Team Strength 0.78 | Adj. SPARQ 0.83 | Weight 211 | |
Rank 15 | Player Khalil Shakir | Player,Draft_Year Boise State | Age 22.2 | Model 0.61 | Draft Capital 0.61 | Adj. Production 0.64 | PPR PG 0.67 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.71 | Team Strength 0.5 | Adj. SPARQ 0.69 | Weight 196 | |
Rank 16 | Player Jalen Tolbert | Player,Draft_Year South Alabama | Age 23.2 | Model 0.55 | Draft Capital 0.65 | Adj. Production 0.43 | PPR PG 0.87 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.93 | Team Strength 0.06 | Adj. SPARQ 0.44 | Weight 194 | |
Rank 17 | Player Kevin Austin | Player,Draft_Year Notre Dame | Age 22.1 | Model 0.42 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.52 | PPR PG 0.41 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.39 | Team Strength 0.81 | Adj. SPARQ 0.88 | Weight 200 | |
Rank 18 | Player Kyle Philips | Player,Draft_Year UCLA | Age 22.9 | Model 0.37 | Draft Capital 0.33 | Adj. Production 0.55 | PPR PG 0.56 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.54 | Team Strength 0.43 | Adj. SPARQ 0.28 | Weight 189 | |
Rank 19 | Player Romeo Doubs | Player,Draft_Year Nevada | Age 22.1 | Model 0.36 | Draft Capital 0.39 | Adj. Production 0.48 | PPR PG 0.87 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.49 | Team Strength 0.27 | Adj. SPARQ | Weight 201 | |
Rank 20 | Player Calvin Austin III | Player,Draft_Year Memphis | Age 23.1 | Model 0.34 | Draft Capital 0.42 | Adj. Production 0.21 | PPR PG 0.7 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.64 | Team Strength 0.13 | Adj. SPARQ 0.86 | Weight 170 | |
Rank 21 | Player Makai Polk | Player,Draft_Year Mississippi State | Age 20.7 | Model 0.32 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.63 | PPR PG 0.73 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.12 | Team Strength 0.32 | Adj. SPARQ 0.16 | Weight 195 | |
Rank 22 | Player Erik Ezukanma | Player,Draft_Year Texas Tech | Age 22.3 | Model 0.3 | Draft Capital 0.43 | Adj. Production 0.28 | PPR PG 0.27 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.39 | Team Strength 0.23 | Adj. SPARQ 0.59 | Weight 209 | |
Rank 23 | Player Danny Gray | Player,Draft_Year SMU | Age 23.1 | Model 0.28 | Draft Capital 0.42 | Adj. Production 0.21 | PPR PG 0.61 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.35 | Team Strength 0.37 | Adj. SPARQ 0.73 | Weight 186 | |
Rank 24 | Player Devon Williams | Player,Draft_Year Oregon | Age 21.8 | Model 0.26 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.65 | PPR PG 0.18 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.27 | Team Strength 0.38 | Adj. SPARQ 0.03 | Weight 210 | |
Rank 25 | Player Jalen Nailor | Player,Draft_Year Michigan State | Age 23.2 | Model 0.23 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.42 | PPR PG 0.48 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.59 | Team Strength 0.74 | Adj. SPARQ 0.24 | Weight 186 | |
Rank 26 | Player Charleston Rambo | Player,Draft_Year Miami (FL) | Age 22.7 | Model 0.21 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.47 | PPR PG 0.71 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.6 | Team Strength 0.33 | Adj. SPARQ 0.08 | Weight 177 | |
Rank 27 | Player Justyn Ross | Player,Draft_Year Clemson | Age 22.4 | Model 0.21 | Draft Capital 0.42 | Adj. Production 0.34 | PPR PG 0.19 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.17 | Team Strength 0.6 | Adj. SPARQ 0.03 | Weight 205 | |
Rank 28 | Player Josh Johnson | Player,Draft_Year Tulsa | Age 22.7 | Model 0.2 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.41 | PPR PG 0.55 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.67 | Team Strength 0.16 | Adj. SPARQ 0.11 | Weight 183 | |
Rank 29 | Player Dontario Drummond | Player,Draft_Year Ole Miss | Age 24.7 | Model 0.16 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.26 | PPR PG 0.65 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.65 | Team Strength 0.6 | Adj. SPARQ 0.25 | Weight 215 | |
Rank 30 | Player Tre Turner | Player,Draft_Year Virginia Tech | Age 22 | Model 0.14 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.36 | PPR PG 0.25 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.73 | Team Strength 0.16 | Adj. SPARQ 0.04 | Weight 184 | |
Rank 31 | Player Bo Melton | Player,Draft_Year Rutgers | Age 23 | Model 0.12 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.15 | PPR PG 0.3 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.34 | Team Strength 0.13 | Adj. SPARQ 0.49 | Weight 189 | |
Rank 32 | Player Mike Woods | Player,Draft_Year Oklahoma | Age 22 | Model 0.12 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.14 | PPR PG 0.04 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.05 | Team Strength 0.62 | Adj. SPARQ 0.49 | Weight 204 | |
Rank 33 | Player Velus Jones Jr. | Player,Draft_Year Tennessee | Age 25 | Model 0.08 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.06 | PPR PG 0.35 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.4 | Team Strength 0.45 | Adj. SPARQ 0.6 | Weight 204 | |
Rank 34 | Player Braylon Sanders | Player,Draft_Year Ole Miss | Age 23.3 | Model 0.07 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.12 | PPR PG 0.09 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.13 | Team Strength 0.6 | Adj. SPARQ 0.29 | Weight 194 | |
Rank 35 | Player Reggie Roberson Jr. | Player,Draft_Year SMU | Age 23.6 | Model 0.05 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.05 | PPR PG 0.24 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.08 | Team Strength 0.37 | Adj. SPARQ 0.33 | Weight 192 | |
Rank 36 | Player Ty Fryfogle | Player,Draft_Year Indiana | Age 23.3 | Model 0.04 | Draft Capital 0.37 | Adj. Production 0.01 | PPR PG 0.06 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.07 | Team Strength 0.08 | Adj. SPARQ 0.6 | Weight 204 | |
Rank 37 | Player Slade Bolden | Player,Draft_Year Alabama | Age 23.3 | Model 0.03 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.04 | PPR PG 0.02 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.01 | Team Strength 0.9 | Adj. SPARQ 0.06 | Weight 193 | |
Rank 38 | Player Johnny Johnson III | Player,Draft_Year Oregon | Age 22.8 | Model 0.03 | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production 0.08 | PPR PG 0.03 | Yards Per Team Pass 0.05 | Team Strength 0.38 | Adj. SPARQ 0.01 | Weight 197 | |
Rank 39 | Player Dai'Jean Dixon | Player,Draft_Year Nicholls State | Age | Model | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production | PPR PG | Yards Per Team Pass | Team Strength | Adj. SPARQ 0.43 | Weight 205 | |
Rank 40 | Player Isaiah Weston | Player,Draft_Year Northern Iowa | Age | Model | Draft Capital 0.23 | Adj. Production | PPR PG | Yards Per Team Pass | Team Strength | Adj. SPARQ 0.94 | Weight 214 |
Once again, the incoming WR class is good, both in Round 1 and into Day 2.
Jameson Williams (97th percentile), Garrett Wilson (97th percentile), and Drake London (97th percentile) all offer different skill sets, but they are all productive Power 5 early declares projected to go inside the top-15 overall. I personally have London ranked as my WR1 after he had 98th percentile PPR points per game as a true junior at USC. Chris Olave (94th percentile) isn't an early declare and is a finesse Z receiver, but other than that, his profile is rock solid. I'm in as long as expectations aren't super high.
Treylon Burks (90th percentile), Skyy Moore (89th percentile), George Pickens (86th percentile), and Jahan Dotson (82nd percentile) are also in the Round 1 mix depending on how early the inevitable WR run starts. All of these prospects have one primary weakness -- Burks (slot to X projection), Moore (size translating against tougher competition), Pickens (injuries), and Dotson (size). Christian Watson (72nd percentile) is not an analytics prospect due to age, team strength, and average production. It's possible a team gets desperate for his 96th percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism late in Round 1, however.
There are seven other WR prospects in the Day 2 mix. Wan'Dale Robinson (77th percentile), David Bell (71st percentile), and Khalil Shakir (61st percentile) are slot options. Tyquan Thornton (66th percentile), Alec Pierce (63rd percentile), and Jalen Tolbert (55th percentile) are downfield threats on the perimeter. John Metchie (71st percentile) is somewhere in between.
2022 TE Prospect Rankings
Rank 1 | Player Trey McBride | College Colorado State | Age 22.5 | Model 0.86 | Draft Capital 0.84 | Adj. Production 0.83 | Team Share of Yards 1 | Career Yards PG 0.93 | Team Strength 0.04 | Adj. SPARQ 0.72 | Weight 0.23 | |
Rank 2 | Player Greg Dulcich | College UCLA | Age 22.4 | Model 0.82 | Draft Capital 0.82 | Adj. Production 0.85 | Team Share of Yards 0.95 | Career Yards PG 0.96 | Team Strength 0.44 | Adj. SPARQ 0.42 | Weight 0.11 | |
Rank 3 | Player Charlie Kolar | College Iowa State | Age 23.5 | Model 0.78 | Draft Capital 0.58 | Adj. Production 0.78 | Team Share of Yards 0.81 | Career Yards PG 0.88 | Team Strength 0.52 | Adj. SPARQ 0.9 | Weight 0.49 | |
Rank 4 | Player Isaiah Likely | College Coastal Carolina | Age 21.7 | Model 0.75 | Draft Capital 0.46 | Adj. Production 0.98 | Team Share of Yards 0.94 | Career Yards PG 0.85 | Team Strength 0.25 | Adj. SPARQ 0.22 | Weight 0.18 | |
Rank 5 | Player Daniel Bellinger | College San Diego State | Age 21.9 | Model 0.66 | Draft Capital 0.46 | Adj. Production 0.73 | Team Share of Yards 0.5 | Career Yards PG 0.23 | Team Strength 0.38 | Adj. SPARQ 0.81 | Weight 0.56 | |
Rank 6 | Player Jelani Woods | College Virginia | Age 23.9 | Model 0.64 | Draft Capital 0.61 | Adj. Production 0.29 | Team Share of Yards 0.35 | Career Yards PG 0.33 | Team Strength 0.2 | Adj. SPARQ 0.97 | Weight 0.56 | |
Rank 7 | Player Cole Turner | College Nevada | Age 22.4 | Model 0.53 | Draft Capital 0.38 | Adj. Production 0.71 | Team Share of Yards 0.5 | Career Yards PG 0.93 | Team Strength 0.24 | Adj. SPARQ 0.47 | Weight 0.34 | |
Rank 8 | Player Jeremy Ruckert | College Ohio State | Age 22 | Model 0.44 | Draft Capital 0.68 | Adj. Production 0.36 | Team Share of Yards 0.1 | Career Yards PG 0.2 | Team Strength 0.93 | Adj. SPARQ 0.5 | Weight 0.49 | |
Rank 9 | Player Jake Ferguson | College Wisconsin | Age 23.6 | Model 0.41 | Draft Capital 0.31 | Adj. Production 0.65 | Team Share of Yards 0.79 | Career Yards PG 0.5 | Team Strength 0.75 | Adj. SPARQ 0.33 | Weight 0.39 | |
Rank 10 | Player Jalen Wydermyer | College Texas A&M | Age 21.7 | Model 0.39 | Draft Capital 0.24 | Adj. Production 0.94 | Team Share of Yards 0.76 | Career Yards PG 0.75 | Team Strength 0.59 | Adj. SPARQ 0.01 | Weight 0.66 | |
Rank 11 | Player Austin Allen | College Nebraska | Age 23.8 | Model 0.36 | Draft Capital 0.06 | Adj. Production 0.48 | Team Share of Yards 0.66 | Career Yards PG 0.48 | Team Strength 0.44 | Adj. SPARQ 0.79 | Weight 0.56 | |
Rank 12 | Player James Mitchell | College Virginia Tech | Age 23 | Model 0.31 | Draft Capital 0.34 | Adj. Production 0.46 | Team Share of Yards 0.73 | Career Yards PG 0.63 | Team Strength 0.13 | Adj. SPARQ 0.3 | Weight 0.34 | |
Rank 13 |