17 Super Bowl Predictions: Player Picks, MVP, Score
Alright. Super Bowl time!!! Let's have some fun, while not getting carried away with our exposures, folks. These are some plays I have personally made and had fun breaking down. The prices could change by the time you are reading this. Take it or leave it. At the very least, you'll know more about the game than anyone else at your Super Bowl party. That counts for something!
The video version with Theo Ash is here. We largely agreed on the key matchups and leanings.
Final Score: 24 Seahawks, 16 Patriots
I like the Seahawks' point spread at 4.5, too. Once accounting for the Seahawks' 7th-toughest strength of schedule versus the Patriots' No. 32 schedule (3rd easiest since 1978), the Seahawks are a meaningfully better team. They've beat the Rams and 49ers twice in the last month and a half, while the Patriots have put up -0.13 EPA per offensive play in the playoffs against the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos. Both coaching staffs and special teams are great, but the depth of roster leans Seattle. They have slightly better weapons headlined by Jaxon Smith-Njigba, while having more above-average starters in the back seven and at edge rusher. To put all of this together, let's put the Seahawks season into perspective by using DVOA, which is a stat that is era adjusted and compares teams to the league average adjusting for strength of schedule....
... The 2025 Seahawks are 7th best of all time. Yes, all time.
Over/Under: Under 45.5
The defensive lines are the standout units -- Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy, Demarcus Lawrence, Boye Mafe on the Seahawks alone -- while each offensive line has glaring holes. For Seattle, it's the entire DL vs. any individual Patriots' offensive linemen. For the Patriots, it's their two defensive tackles in Milton Williams and Christian Barmore against highly-worrisome RG Anthony Bradford in particular. Quick pressures allowed by LT Will Campbell or collapsed pockets by LG Jared Wilson could lead to drive-ending sacks, while bad rushing matchups could mean red zone drives stall out and turn into field goals.
Both offensive coaching staffs are fairly committed to a balanced offense, so the clock bleeds. These offenses are 25th (Seahawks) and 28th (Patriots) in seconds per snap. That puts this game at 120ish snaps, equivalent to the 3rd-slowest-paced teams when combined. It should be a bit faster than that, but it's set up to be a lower-scoring affair with two volatile QBs in tough spots:
Best Super Bowl MVP Odds: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+600)
The current favorite, Sam Darnold (+110), should be the current favorite and is absolutely the most likely winner, as it's largely a QB-driven award. Darnold is capable of monster downfield shots, and if the ball is spread out enough, it's his award to lose as the QB of a fairly heavy-favorited team. Of course, the Seahawks are a lot different than most offenses because they are so centered around Jaxon Smith-Njgiba (+600), who is my favorite pick at current odds. More on JSN below... Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker (+850) has an outside shot, too, after handling 87% of RB opportunities last week without Zach Charbonnet. It's a very concentrated offense, so unless Rashid Shaheed goes nuts on special teams or a defensive player scores a TD while padding the stat sheet, it'd be a massive surprise if it's not Darnold-JSN-Walker for Seattle. Keep in mind, it's been a QB winner in 67% of Super Bowls since 2001.
On the flip side, it's hard to find a Patriots' Super Bowl MVP case aside from Drake Maye (+230), the likely runner-up for the regular season award. The Patriots really spread the ball around through the air, with upwards of 5 WRs, 2 TEs, and 2 RBs getting real snaps. Maye also is a focal point as a ball carrier, especially in the red zone recently, so he'd win the award in most Patriots' wins. Perhaps Rhamondre Stevenson (+3000) can grind it out with a couple scores if he once again plays 60-of-64 snaps like he did last week, but a RB hasn't won the award since 1997. It's probably more likely that Stefon Diggs (+4500) would win it.
As for Jaxon Smith-Njigba's odds, the context is 5-of-24 recent Super Bowl winners (the Tom Brady and on era) have been receivers. They've put up 133, 123, 131, 109, and 92 receiving yards with each scoring 1-2 times. JSN has reached 92 yards in 14-of-19 games and has 5-90-1 or better receiving lines in 9-of-19 games. That's close to the floor to win the award, especially when he accounted for 44% of the team's receiving yards this regular season. This is not a situation like it is with Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes, who can rack up numbers by spreading the ball around. The Seahawks move the ball through their WR1. He's led the team in receiving in 17-of-19 games.
Sam Darnold 9.5 longest run (juiced lower)
The story will be the blitz for two main reasons. To start, the Patriots have blitzed on 41% of their postseason snaps (really high), and it's really worked. In fact, the Patriots' 5-best defensive games of the year have also been their last 5 games of the season including playoffs. Secondly, Sam Darnold has splits with and without facing a blitz. When blitzed, the Seahawks have +0.08 EPA per dropback (12th), and when not blitzed, they're at +0.13 (5th). In previous years, Darnold's splits were far worse, but that's QB development and good coaching. While EPA measures general efficiency, it is worth pointing out his completion percentage is more notable, as it drops from 75% without a blitz to 66% with a blitz (see: MIN game).
The other scheme angle is the high volume of Cover 0, Cover 1, and Cover 3 looks the Patriots deploy. Versus the rest of the NFL, Mike Vrabel's defense uses the two-high shell at well below-average rates. Against Cover 0, 1, or 3 this year, the Seahawks' +0.15 EPA per dropback ranks 6th-best. Once again, that'll do! But also once again, Darnold's risk taking to produce that high efficiency does come with variance, which ultimately means his completion percentage sits at 61% against those looks. Whether or not the Seahawks come down with these big-boy throws will largely determine Darnold's statistical upside. No team throws the ball deeper (10.4 air yards) against these looks than Seattle.
Unlike the other recent Super Bowl QBs, Darnold offers very little as a rusher. He only has 7 carries above his 5.5 longest yards projection all season long, and 2 of them were for exactly 6 yards. Underdog Fantasy users can move that projection to 9.5 yards (for a lower 0.68x payout), and Darnold has hit that mark on just 2 carries all season long (5% of runs). Without adjusting for opponent or game script, he'd need 3.9 carries for the odds to flip against us, and his current projection is at 2.5 carries. This is a good play if you are good with laying down a heavy favorite.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 93.5 receiving yards (higher)
The All Pro receiver has hit 93.5 yards in 12-of-19 games, averaging 103 receiving yards and 6.9 receptions along the way. Remember, this game's point spread of 4.5 points is a lot closer than the Seahawks' average +12.1 point differential, so there could be more passes out of necessity. At the same time, the Seahawks' implied points are 25.0 when they've scored 29.2 on average, so the individual matchup is a bit more difficult than normal.
Christian Gonzalez did largely shadow Courtland Sutton last week, even into the slot on a couple of snaps. It won't be 100% of snaps most likely, but it should be a ton of JSN vs. CGO reps. The good news is OC Klint Kubiak knows what he's doing. Last week, albeit against a much different scheme, JSN had 3 targets while lined up in the backfield. Gonzalez is very good, but he's also left on an island a lot. That's how this happens: "The Patriots ranked 31st during the regular season in DVOA covering No. 1 receivers." This lonely island is especially true when the Patriots send a 6th pass rusher, and when that happens, Darnold pretty much only throws it to JSN. His yards per route is actually better against the blitz (3.6) than without a blitz (3.2). Asking a corner to be left without a lot of help against an All Pro receiver is a lot to ask.
Jake Bobo 0.5 receiving yards (lower)
"You must be fun at parties." I get it. But Bobo has a 10.6% targets per route run this year, and he's ran a route on just 16% of Seattle's dropbacks this postseason. Many of those are in the red zone, so I don't actually hate him as a dart throw for a touchdown, but in terms of one reception, the odds of no catch are weighted. He's caught a pass in 4-of-13 games this year and two of them were before the Rashid Shaheed trade. That also doesn't account for matchup, where CB1 Christian Gonzalez and CB2 Carlton Davis are above average behind an emerging defensive line.
Kenneth Walker 1st carry 3.5 yards (lower)
We're all here for Kenneth Walker, the explosive rusher. Unfortunately, that's also the strength of the Patriots defense right now with their 3 stud DTs and aggressive run fits. They were blitzing corners and safeties for a lot of the Broncos game, and it limited that attack in a big way. I expect a similar game plan here, and Walker's boom-bust style doesn't always equate to a ton of volume. He reached 19 carries in each of the two playoff wins, both against easier run defenses than New England's and, once again, both in wins. The Patriots have allowed 18, 19, 12, and 23 RB carries since Milton Williams has returned, and Walker is unlikely to get 100% of them. Like many forget with higher/lowers, there's also an injury risk, so I'd lean lower than 18.5 carries and we can get slightly improved odds as a bonus. I'd project Walker for 18.0 carries for 76.5 yards. Walker has a 4.8 YPC this year, while the Patriots have held the line at 3.7 YPC.
If you really want to be a sicko, my favorite Kenneth Walker play is 1st carry lower than 3.5 yards. Here's how often a carry goes over that: all NFL RB runs (45.2%), early-down RB runs (46.5%), RB runs against the Patriots (44.4%), early-down RB runs against the Patriots (44.8%), postseason RB runs against the Patriots (24.5%), RB runs with Milton Williams active (41.5%), all Kenneth Walker runs (47.0%), all Kenneth Walker early-down runs (46.0%). If we get priced at a coin flip, the coin is weighted.
The Patriots are primary a Cover 3, Cover 1, or Cover 0 defense. In those looks, RBs league-wide see just 14% targets, versus a 20% rate against all other coverages. Those defenses typically require a back to stay in for pass protection or in the sense of Cover 3, there are more underneath zone defenders than there is in Cover 4. Walker can spring open for explosives as a receiver when given opportunities -- he's very good -- but the team did use George Holani in the 2-minute drill and long 3rd-down snaps last week as a Zach Charbonnet replacement. Walker will definitely run the ball a lot more and play more snaps in general without Charbs, but Walker isn't an every-down player right now either. He's eclipsed 3.5 targets in just 4 games this year. I'd project Walker for 2.75 receptions for 24 yards on 3.25 targets.
George Holani 6.5 longest carry (lower)
Without Zach Charbonnet last week, Holani stepped into a strict pass-down role. He only had 3 carries, good for just 11.5% of the team carries in general. One of them was a 3rd-and-27 rep, too. If Kenneth Walker stays healthy, there's really no reason for that to change here. Beyond that, only 17.9% of Holani's limited carries have reached 6.5 rushing yards, despite most of carries coming against the Cardinals and Saints. If that rate holds (which could even be high given the Patriots' fantastic run defense has a 16.4% of carries reaching 6.5 yards this year), then he'd need 3.5 carries to reach the break even point of 6.5 longest carry. His carry projection is only at 2.5 and juiced to the lower.
Christian Barmore 2.5 tackles + assists (higher)
He's a star-level defensive tackle. In terms of ESPN's Pass Rush Win Rate, Barmore is the DT8 at 10%. He gave All Pro RG Quinn Meinerz hell last week (see above), and his matchup this week flips from difficult to easy. The Seahawks RG is the weakness. Since Milton Williams has returned, Barmore has played more snaps on the RG side, and the defense is more likely to play with a third DT on the field, meaning he'll be more lined up 1-on-1 against RG Anthony Bradford. That's a total mismatch. I haven't ran the numbers on his sack projections, but in general, there will be quality pass-rushing opportunities for Barmore here.
Beyond that, there could be more carries faced than usual based on game script. The Patriots only averaged 24.5 carries per game, while the Seahawks have ran the ball 29.8 times per game. New England also could keep him on the field for more snaps than usual because it's the Super Bowl.
Christian Gonzalez 1.5 assists (lower)
It wasn't a 100% shadow, but Gonzalez did follow Broncos WR1 Courtland Sutton last week and I largely expect that to be true here against Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That did include a couple of slot reps, which is key because JSN will move into the slot as well. If JSN is targeted as often as usual, there are solo tackles to be had. On top of that, 73% of Gonzalez's tackles against the run are off the end. Well, what does Kenneth Walker like to do? Hit things off the edge. I also noticed a few reps where Gonzalez is blitzing with a chance to clean up some bounces, so the newly leaned into blitzes are going to help him out even more whether he's the one blitzing or if he's being targeted in 1-on-1 situation against JSN with his teammates blitzing.
But that doesn't mean assists are in the making. Gonzalez has had just 4 assisted tackles on pass attempts this year compared to 51 solo tackles, and 3-of-4 were screens. The Seahawks were only 23rd in screens this year, and the Patriots defense is 3rd-best in success rate against screens so it'd be weird to change that tendency here. Instead, Gonzalez's assisted tackles have mostly been on outside runs (5) with another on a scramble (Darnold doesn't do that) and another on a 6-OL FB dive against the Bills (the Seahawks don't do that). In general, Gonzalez has more than 1.5 assists in just 4-of-17 games (23.5%).
Drake Maye 3.5 sacks (higher)
The Patriots' gap between passing and rushing EPA (0.28 difference) is the biggest in the NFL, per Seth Walder, which is why they're 2nd-highest in neutral pass rate. That should be no different this time out with TreVeyon Henderson phased out and in a bad rushing matchup. The Patriots should pass plenty in neutral situations, and then there's a chance they pass more late due to the scoreboard, something they haven't ran into at all this year. With that, more potential for sacks. Maye is largely solid against pressure, but he has taken 5 sacks in all 3 of their playoff games with LT Will Campbell struggling off knee injury against top-flight units. This time, it's the best defense in the NFL. Maye has gone over 3.5 sacks in 9-of-20 games against a cupcake schedule in positive game scripts.
The Seahawks are 1st in Cover 6 rate (22%) per PFF, which is a pretty complicated scheme. It blends things, with one safety responsible for half the field (Cover 2) and the other playing in quarters (Cover 4) with another corner playing the sideline quarter of the field. That's notable because the Patriots have -0.04 EPA per dropback against Cover 6 this year, and it's nearly impossible to find negative EPA numbers for Drake Maye. With two weeks to game plan, the Hawks could plan for more disguising of coverages, and we'll see if a young (albeit very smart) QB is ready for a 500-level course of defense.
As the dashboard above shows, the Hawks' coverages are so hard to identify at times that the charting services (PFF vs. FTN) are way off in their coverage splits, particularly when it comes to Cover 2, Cover 6, and quarters. Either way, this dashboard shows Seattle doesn't blitz often, rather using lots of stunts across their 4-man front while using these blended zone defenses in the secondary to create confusion. That's why Mike MacDonald is the face of the modern NFL defense today. They have an above-average 34% pressure rate on the whole.
The scramble potential is very high for Drake Maye. The Seahawks faced the most scrambles this year, and Maye is 1st in total scrambles himself. The pass game was broken last week until he took off, and the complexity of the zone defense that Seattle deploys could create more heroic decisions from Maye. It's already priced this way, but Maye is likely to run more than normal in the Super Bowl.
Hunter Henry 36.5 receiving yards (higher)
The veteran tight end can still play, and he's operated as the most consistent secondary target over the entire season. He's averaged 42.5 yards and 3.3 receptions per game, going over 36.5 yards in 11-of-20 contests.
In the regular season, the Seahawks allowed the 5th-most receptions to TEs at 6.2 per game, good for 63.5 receiving yards per game. It's partially a product of game script, but it's also a choice made by coach Mike MacDonald to have two deeper safeties for a lot of their snaps. In short, there is more space in the underneath zones for targets to funnel too, especially if teams are fearful of the Seahawks' 4-man front creating pressure by the time they'd dial up a deep pass... Looking into this further, the Seahawks allowed the 2nd-most receptions and receiving yards to TEs lined up in the slot. Henry has ran a route on 76% of dropbacks in the last 3 games with their skill group healthy, lining up in the slot on 66% of those dropbacks.
That trend has played out for Hunter Henry against similarly-called defenses. When facing Cover 3, Cover 4, or Cover 6 this year, Henry's yards per route climbs to 2.0, which is fantastic. On all routes, Henry was at 1.6, so it's a substantial jump. Of note, the Seahawks play the most Cover 6 in the league and play more than half of their snaps in one of these three coverages. Even if LB Ernest Jones, SS Nick Emmanwori, or CB Devon Witherspoon are good players, Henry can the best option in the pass game here. I also think if we remove some of the manufactured looks TreVeyon Henderson was receiving in the regular season, those could trickle towards the tight ends.
Stefon Diggs 4.5 receptions (higher)
He's a "per snap" stud, but Diggs only played 48% snaps last week and he's run a route on just 72% of dropbacks in the last 3 games with Mack Hollins. That has kept his per-game metrics at just 54.3 receiving yards on 4.8 grabs, hitting his this projected over/under of 4.5 receptions in 9-of-20 games. Of course, there was a ramp up period early in the season, and the Patriots' have been blowing teams out, not projected to lose like they are this week.
For the most part, Diggs is an underneath threat with 66% of his routes coming from the slot in the last 3 games with Mack Hollins. Those underneath windows are available against the Seahawks' primary defensive coverages (Cover 3, Cover 4, and Cover 6). Against those coverages, Diggs is averaging 2.3 yards per route which is slightly higher than his average against all coverages (2.1). Targets should end up his way, even if the defenders on him are really good. He will likely see a bulk of SCB Devin Witherspoon and SS Nick Emmanwori, as a primarily slot receiver. Those two are quicker than he is at this point, though he is a veteran who can get these youngsters to bite.
Kayshon Boutte 18.5 longest catch (lower)
With Mack Hollins healthy, Boutte runs a route on 79% of dropbacks, so he's not necessarily a full-time player despite his elite downfield numbers. A wild 24.5% of his targets this year have resulted in catches of more than 18.5 yards this year. That's beyond unsustainable, however, even with an MVP-caliber quarterback! And the Seahawks have allowed only 10.9% of their outside WR targets to reach that 18.5-yard mark, despite their difficult strength of schedule. When removing Puka Nacua from that database, the Seahawks are allowing just 8.6% of their outside WR targets to reach 18.5 yards. That's unbelievably good...
... Now, some math (apologies). Boutte's target projection is at 3.5 with some juice on the lower. If he sees 3.5 targets, then Boutte's baseline for an 18.5-yard reception would need to be at 18% to break even on reaching the higher. I simply don't think that's realistic given the huge sample size of the Seahawks defense, the state of the Patriots OL particularly against this defense, and then the new Drake Maye right shoulder injury. If his baseline is closer to 15%, then the lower would expect to hit 43% of the time. I'll take my chances on volatile CB Riq Woolen I guess! Woolen is far more athletic than Boutte is for what it's worth.
Rhamondre Stevenson 2.5 receptions (higher)
Last week's Conference Championship was a full takeover by Stevenson. He played 60-of-64 snaps (94%) with everything on the line in a very close game. The Patriots only gave TreVeyon Henderson the other four snaps, and he arguably made two bad decisions on his three carries. Stevenson has earned more work by not only being a quicker and more precise decision-maker but also by wowing as a pass protector and even lead blocker for Drake Maye. Size matters (to the disappointment of many of my readers I'm sure). It'd be a surprise if Stevenson isn't playing 40-50 snaps out of the roughly 60ish snaps that are up for grabs here. He played 62% snaps in each of the other two playoff games to set a non-injury floor.
The snaps are great, but the matchup is terrible. The Seahawks defense has allowed a 34% rushing success rate and -0.15 EPA per carry, and on RB carries in particular, that's 3.7 YPC. There's too much talent and depth on the DL against this very mediocre Patriots OL, and then the breakaway runs are largely eliminated because the Seahawks secondary is filled with elite tacklers. It'd be a win if Stevenson's per-carry numbers started with a "4._" here, and the Patriots might wave the white flag early on RB carries in general. Somewhere around 15 carries for 58 yards is a normal expectation, with Stevenson being a major favorite to Henderson at the goal line as well. That'd generally leave 3-8 carries for TreVeyon Henderson and 6-10 carries for Drake Maye. As for Hendo, this is a bad matchup for him to get his snaps back, as the Seahawks are allowing 3.2 YPG on outside zone runs (2nd best) per Cody Alexander. I'd also note the Seahawks are No. 2 in red zone run defense, while the Patriots are No. 26. Tough sledding.
The spot to like Rhamondre Stevenson is as a receiver. The rookie is too small and too unreliable to pass protect, so Stevenson is playing a lot of snaps, leading to a lot of routes. In a game they're projected to lose, the Patriots could be forced into more dropbacks and more checkdowns. In general, RBs get more targets against zone, and the Seahawks are a 78% zone defense. They allowed a league-high 121 RB targets in the regular season for a 36 YPG and 5.6 RPG average. That's still 33.3 and 5.3 removing the Christian McCaffrey games. Even if I'm overthinking all of this stuff -- sometimes guilty!!! -- Stevenson is averaging 2.75 receptions for (an unsustainable) 32 receiving yards in his last 8 healthy games when the Patriots were 7-1 with a +13.25 scoring margin as a team. Stevenson should be in the 2-5 receptions range if healthy.
TreVeyon Henderson 3.5 fantasy points (lower)
Just read the above paragraphs again, or watch this clip:
Bonus (for fun): Jack Westover longshots (higher)
If you want to call your shot and be a Super Bowl legend, then let's have some fun with Patriots FB Jack Westover, who has played 39% of the postseason snaps and was actually a receiving tight end in college not so long ago. Theo Ash called him a "spy" on our preview, and I agree he is awfully suspicious on tape. He's ripe for a trick play or just being left alone in the flats. He's only run a route on 15% of dropbacks and many of them are "get over next to the sideline and occupy space", but Westover is out there to lead block and you never know with Josh McDaniels, especially if the WRs are running into trouble against these athletic CBs. In general, find markets with yes/no or higher/lower options, as they will have more friendly odds. Westover even catching one pass at the 45-yard line would be considered a long shot win in my books.
The Best Super Bowl Notes I've Found
From ESPN: This is the first Super Bowl in over 50 years between two teams that entered the season with at least 60-1 odds to win the Super Bowl."
From Aaron Schatz: "In the regular season, the Patriots only blitzed 27.4% of the time, which ranked 19th in the NFL. In the postseason, they have blitzed 41.4% of the time. This looks like a good strategy against Sam Darnold. During the regular season, Darnold had only -1.0% passing DVOA when blitzed, which ranked 23rd among qualifying quarterbacks. Even last week, when he had that great performance against the Rams, Darnold was 4-for-7 for 47 yards and a touchdown with two sacks on nine Rams blitzes, worth -4.0% DVOA."
From Aaron Schatz: "Seattle has a clear advantage on special teams, but not as big as the advantage they had over the Rams. The Patriots were roughly average in special teams DVOA. They are very good on punt returns with Marcus Jones. But they have real problems on kickoffs and punts. Punter Bryce Baringer was particularly bad against Denver in the AFC Championship Game. Andy Borregales was fine on field goals but the Patriots’ gross kickoff value was the second lowest in the league ahead of only the Rams. Seattle shines in kickoff coverage, on punts with Michael Dickson and on kickoff and punt returns with Rashid Shaheed."
From Seth Walder: The Patriots "have the largest gap between their EPA per play on designed passes versus designed runs (0.28 difference), so it's critical that they put the ball in Maye's hands as much as possible in the Super Bowl. And they've done that up to this point with the second-highest pass rate over expected (plus-4%)."
From Seth Walder: "Opponent success rate on designed runs against Seattle is just 34%, the lowest in the NFL. Its EPA per play on those plays is minus-0.15, also the lowest. And opponents have managed minus-34 first downs over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, when rushing against Seattle. That's by far the lowest in the league (next closest is the Texans at minus-14)."