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This is as good as it gets in terms of team balance. Only their 31st-ranked turnover rate on offense sticks out as an obvious place to improve. Expect that to naturally regress positively with Josh Allen likely healthier and with 4-of-5 OL starters returning.
3-WR Sets (11th in snaps, 73% of snaps)
WR: Stefon Diggs --> Justin Shorter (R)
WR: Gabe Davis --> Trent Sherfield
SLOT: Khalil Shakir --> Deonte Harty
TE: Dawson Knox --> Dalton Kincaid (R)
2-WR Sets (27th in snaps, 22% of snaps)
WR: Stefon Diggs --> Deonte Harty
WR: Gabe Davis --> Khalil Shakir
SLOT TE: Dalton Kincaid (R)
INLINE TE: Dawson Knox --> Quentin Morris
RB Usage (25th in expected half PPR)
GOAL LINE: Damien Harris --> Latavius Murray
PASSING DOWN: James Cook --> Nyheim Hines
Offensive Line (below average)
LT: Dion Dawkins (solid returning starter)
LG: Connor McGovern (2-year, $9.9M guaranteed)
C: Mitch Morse (mid returning starter)
RG: Ryan Bates (mid returning starter)
RT: Spencer Brown (mid returning starter)
Since 2019, Josh Allen is averaging 23.9 fantasy points per game. Pretty, pretty good. That equated to 14th overall (QB2) and 7th overall (QB1) finishes in fantasy points over expected per game using Underdog Fantasy best ball scoring over the last two seasons. Allen's production has skyrocketed thanks to Stefon Diggs and a slight increase in his own carries. They want to scale him back as a runner (that could hurt), but that's easier said than done. Buffalo likely won't be ahead as much as they were last year with the entire division looking better this time around. Allen is a very, very safe Round 3 pick. Hopefully this OL gets better with continuity; 4-of-5 starters return.
The biggest uncertainty for fantasy in Buffalo is offensive personnel groupings. Last year's Bills were in 3-WR sets on 73% of snaps, while running very, very few 2-TE sets. How much does that chance with 1st-round rookie slot TE Dalton Kincaid being added? Kincaid is viewed as a slot receiver right now, as Dawson Knox likely plays traditional TE while losing some routes due to his solid pass blocking skills. As the lead TE last year, Knox was the TE17 and 167th overall player. He was 71st overall in 2021 thanks to an outlier nine (9) scores. Kincaid is a better receiving prospect than Knox, but them splitting reps in a usual 3-WR-set offense makes their projections difficult to manage. Kincaid likely needs an injury to pay off his TE12 price tag. Knox will need to get lucky with touchdowns.
Stefon Diggs was the 12th overall player (WR6) last year after a disappointing 51st overall finish in fantasy points over replacement the year prior. Perhaps his age-30 season hurts, but Diggs is one of the safest Round 1 selections after three years of over 100 receptions in Buffalo. Now that it's easier to get Allen in Round 3, I'm specifically drafting Diggs over some other mid-Round 1 players to build out stacks... Gabe Davis had 10 games with under 50 yards. That's because he's not a major separator. BUT Davis also had five (5) games with both 74+ yards and 1+ TDs. For best ball, that's what we need. In fact, Davis was the WR27 per game using best ball scoring. There are paths to even more spikes, too. Diggs hasn't missed time before, plus Davis averaged 7.9 points in the three (3) games with a bad ankle and 10.9 points in the 11 games off the injury report... The slot receiver in this offense has been valuable for years, but Kincaid disrupts that and there's not a clear slot with both 2nd-year Khalil Shakir and veteran special teamer Deonte Harty ($5M guaranteed) competing.
Of all teams, I think the Bills could have the silliest rotation of RBs. James Cook (5'11/190) has the clearest role as a 2nd-year pass catching back. His problem is Buffalo has finished 20th and 28th in RB receptions because Allen can run it himself. Cook also doesn't have early-down size, leading to just one (1) game with 50% snaps as a rookie. He finished as the RB62 in fantasy points over replacement. I don't draft him in half PPR best ball often... Damien Harris ($1.8M with $500k guaranteed) is the presumed rusher in the Devin Singeltary role from last year when he was the RB40 and 91st overall player, but 33-year-old Latavius Murray did sign for more guaranteed money ($700k) this offseason. Both offer the size needed to split goal line work with Allen. Throw in Nyheim Hines' small role, and I think we're in trouble all around. Buffalo RBs *combined* for just 19.0 expected half PPR points last year (25th).
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WR5 Stefon Diggs (7.4 overall) --> Buying
QB3 Josh Allen (26.1) --> BUYING
WR41 Gabe Davis (78.2) --> Buying
RB30 James Cook (96.2) --> Full fading
RB39 Damien Harris (116.4) --> Mixing in
TE11 Dalton Kincaid (124.2) --> Only in stacks
TE22 Dawson Knox (176.0) --> Only in stacks
WR83 Khalil Shakir (195.8) --> Only in stacks