2023 Green Bay Packers Team Preview

Jun 14th 2023

Hayden Winks

The Green Bay Packers enter the post Aaron Rodgers era. We can draft them all on Underdog Fantasy with promo code 'UNDERBLOG' to match your first deposit up to $100. We have the biggest fantasy football tournament of all time ($15M) right now.

2022 Green Bay Packers Advanced Stats

A lot of last year's data can be tossed to the side because of the QB change, but I do like coach Matt LaFleur ranking 2nd in 4th-down aggressiveness and the offense ranking top-10 in short-yardage run success rate (good OL). The defense once again was killed on the ground, allowing the 2nd-most EPA per carry despite plenty of good starters. Until that gets fixed, this Packers' defense will be worse than the sum of their parts.

2023 Green Bay Packers Starting Lineups

3-WR Sets (22nd in snaps, 58% of snaps)

  • WR: Christian Watson --> Dontayvion Wicks (R)

  • WR: Romeo Doubs --> Grant Dubose (R)

  • SLOT: Jayden Reed (R) --> Samori Toure

  • TE: Luke Musgrave (R) --> Tucker Kraft (R)

2-WR Sets (5th in snaps, 40% of snaps)

  • WR: Christian Watson --> Samori Toure

  • WR: Romeo Doubs --> Jayden Reed (R)

  • SLOT TE: Luke Musgrave (R) --> Josiah Deguara

  • INLINE TE: Tucker Kraft (R) --> Tyler Davis

RB Usage (4th in expected half PPR)

  • GOAL LINE: AJ Dillon --> Aaron Jones

  • PASSING DOWN: Aaron Jones --> AJ Dillon

Offensive Line (league average)

  • LT: David Bakhtiari (decent on 600 snaps)

  • LG: Elgton Jenkins (solid starter, kicking inside)

  • C: Josh Myers (mid starter in 3rd season)

  • RG: Jon Runyon (mid starter in 4th season)

  • RT: Zach Tom (played everywhere as a rookie)

2023 Green Bay Packers Fantasy Preview

Out of 68 QBs with at least 75 attempts since 2021, Jordan Love ranks 49th in success rate and 53rd in completion percentage over expected. It's a small sample, but his stats align with a QB who has gone his entire rookie contract without starting. In contract negotiations, Love didn't bet on himself either, instead accepting an under-market deal with less upside. Strange. For fantasy, however, Love has some QB2 appeal. The underlying stats for coach Matt LaFleur are strong, and Love rushed five times for 23 yards in his lone start after rushing 4.7 times per game in college. There are some disaster paths with an extremely inexperienced skill group (his starting WR/TE group has 1.5 years of NFL experience), so I'm treading lightly.

Christian Watson had +2.6 TDs above expectation as a receiver, then ripped off 46- and 15-yard rushing TDs. He also caught an unsustainable 75% of his contested catches. Natural regression is coming for him, even if he's going to be an explosive player long term (that's a fact). The Rodgers to Love drop equates to about 5% completions over expected and 7% in success rate, notable differences. It's possible Watson's game is particularly hurt given his deep 14.3 average depth of target. If you really believe in his talent, then there's upside. If you think he's a natural No. 2 receiver, then we should expect lots of inconsistencies. Watson had just one (1) game with 6+ receptions, yet was the WR21 in fantasy points over replacement per game thanks to his long scores...

The Packers were 22nd in 3-WR set snaps last year, so the battle for 2-WR set snaps is extra important to this offense. 2nd-round rookie Jayden Reed has more draft capital than 2022 4th-rounder Romeo Doubs, but Doubs has a do-everything profile (poor man's Corey Davis) while Reed may be boxed into a slot only role after OTA reporting. Slot-only players in bad offenses don't matter in half PPR, so it's important that Reed (50% wide snaps in college) can beat Doubs out straight up. That role led to WR70 production last year with Mr. Rodgers. I'm not optimistic on either.

2nd-round rookie TE Luke Musgrave might be a dog, and the (factual) narrative that rookie TEs struggle to see the field doesn't really apply to him, as he's working ahead of 3rd-round rookie TE Tucker Kraft in early camp. Musgrave checks size (6'6/250), athleticism (93rd percentile ten-yard split, 90th percentile broad jump, and 60th percentile three cone), and receiving background thresholds. Without a target dominator on the roster, Musgrave's path to rookie success is easier than given credit for. On a very small sample last year, Musgrave happened to flash a 3.4 yards per route run average.

Aaron Jones was the RB13 after catching a career-high 59 receptions. Love is probably less likely to throw to his RBs than Rodgers, however, and Jones was out-carried inside the 5-yard line by AJ Dillon, 10-2. It's a thin needle to thread for the 28-year-old, who had to take a paycut to stay on the roster this year. Jones still has some juice on tape in my opinion, but I like him in a committee role now... Meanwhile, Dillon is an early-down and short-yardage hammer, who only finished as the RB41 per game last year while being subbed out on passing downs (15% drops). Both need the other to go away to reach a real fantasy upside, though I expect Dillon to start closing the gap on Jones this year.

2023 Green Bay Packers Fantasy ADPs

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  • WR21 Christian Watson (39.7 overall) --> Soft fading

  • RB17 Aaron Jones (54.1) --> Fading

  • RB33 AJ Dillon (103.9) --> Mixing in

  • WR60 Romeo Doubs (134.2) --> Mixing in

  • QB20 Jordan Love (153.8) --> Mixing in

  • WR71 Jayden Reed (159.5) --> Mixing in

  • TE29 Luke Musgrave (209.0) --> BUYING