After arriving one year earlier than expected, the Jacksonville Jaguars have a high fantasy football ceiling in 2023. We can draft them all on Underdog Fantasy with promo code 'UNDERBLOG' to match your first deposit up to $100. We have the biggest fantasy football tournament of all time ($15M) right now.
There's a lot to like with this chart. The hard parts are solved. Jacksonville was 6th in EPA per dropback on the 3rd-best adjusted sack rate, while coach Doug Pederson (very good) was 7th in 4th-down aggressiveness. That lays out a very safe foundation, and there's room for growth. The offense was just 20th in red zone TD rate and was 24th in turnover rate, both categories are important but volatile with room for growth. On top of that, they were 7th in point differential but 11th in wins, so there's a lot of natural regression for the Jaguars. Not to mention Trevor Lawrence's youth and the addition of Calvin Ridley.
3-WR Sets (15th in snaps, 66% of snaps)
WR: Calvin Ridley --> Tim Jones
WR: Zay Jones --> Jacob Harris
SLOT: Christian Kirk --> Jamal Agnew
TE: Evan Engram --> Brenton Strange (R)
2-WR Sets (21st in snaps, 24% of snaps)
WR: Calvin Ridley --> Jamal Agnew
WR: Christian Kirk --> Zay Jones
SLOT TE: Evan Engram --> Gerrit Prince
INLINE TE: Brenton Strange (R) --> Luke Farrell
RB Usage (23rd in expected half PPR)
GOAL LINE: Travis Etienne --> Tank Bigsby (R)
PASSING DOWN: Travis Etienne --> JaMycal Hasty
Offensive Line (potentially problematic)
LT: Cam Robinson (suspended for PEDs)
LG: Ben Bartch (bad returner)
C: Luke Fortner (2022 3rd-rounder)
RG: Brandon Scherff (coming off worst year)
RT: Walker Little (mid player, switching to RT)
Trevor Lawrence plays beyond his age. He was top-12 in pressure-to-sack rate (dodges sacks) and top-12 in scrambles (athletic). That's the combination required to compete for championships, both in real life and fantasy. Lawrence's eyes are always downfield, ready to rip balls down the seam and near the sideline. In fact, he was 4th in PFF's Big Time Throw rate. His aggressiveness hurt him at times last year, but those were often calculated risks. Lawrence's mediocre 4.3% TD rate could climb with Calvin Ridley (career 1.9 yards per route run) replacing Marvin Jones (1.0 YPRR last year). The only negative on Lawrence's fantasy profile is a potentially brutal OL. He was the QB10 and 92nd overall player in fantasy points over replacement per game last year.
As a team last year, the Jaguars were 4th in WR fantasy usage. There are fantasy points to chase here, and the highest ceiling player is undoubtably Calvin Ridley, who hasn't played great ball since 2020. Mental health and a foot injury hurt him in 2021 (1.4 YPRR), and then a gambling suspension kept him out all 2022. He looks healthy in OTA videos and seems very motivated going into a contract year on a Super Bowl contending team. Ridley's downfield skill set aligns with Lawrence's downfield eyes, and he already has a top-5 WR yardage season (1,374) under his belt. Ridley is the Round 3/4 WR with the best odds of finishing as a top-8 fantasy WR ... As the No. 1 receiver last year, Christian Kirk was the WR14 and 34th overall player in fantasy points over replacement per game, while setting career highs in all categories. He stayed in the slot on 75% of his snaps (smart coaching) and will slide back into his more natural No. 2 role this year. A volume reduction and some downfield target negative regression work against Kirk's ceiling, but he's a consistent player who is locked into nice efficiency based on his environment and vertical over-the-middle role ... Zay Jones was the WR26 last year while also setting career highs in all categories, including yards per route run (1.5). Like Kirk, volume is a potential problem but efficiency shouldn't be, especially as he slides into his natural No. 3 role as a boundary receiver working the intermediate parts of the field. As a reference point, Marvin Jones paced for 86 targets in this role. Jones had 121 of them.
Finally away from OC Jason Garrett, Evan Engram set career highs in receptions and yards en route to a TE6 and 93rd overall finish in fantasy points over replacement per game. Engram had an outlier 6.8 yards after the catch thanks to beautifully designed plays underneath, which allowed his best trait (athleticism) to shine. His efficiency should be sticky, but volume is a concern after he ran hot on TE13 fantasy usage per game. Ridley will hurt target shares, and 2nd-round rookie Brenton Strange is expected to mix in as a blocker, where Engram still struggles. It likely won't drag into the season, but Engram has yet to sign his franchise tag. I'll thank Engram for his rebound season last year, while fading him at elevated cost this offseason.
Travis Etienne was the RB20 and 47th overall player per game last year, but he had massive splits without James Robinson. He averaged 15.1 half PPR points in 9 games without him, compared to 8.5 points in the 6 games with him. The Jaguars like Etienne as a home run hitter (4th in rush yards over expected per carry), but I think they view him as a somewhat incomplete player who should have a complement rusher next to him. He only handled 44% of the team's inside the 5-yard line carries and lost a third of the pass down work to default No. 2 JaMycal Hasty. Ultimately, Etienne is the lead on a team that was 23rd in RB fantasy usage ... He'll be backed up by Hasty, who re-signed for a 2-year, $3M contract as a special teamer and passing down complement, and by 3rd-round rookie Tank Bigsby. The ex-Auburn Tiger is 6'0/213, meaning he could mix in near the goal line and would be the lead if Eitenne missed time. My full profile on Bigsby is here ... Remember when the fantasy community pretended D'Ernest Johnson was good? He's on $50k guaranteed and likely will be cut pre-season.
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WR16 Calvin Ridley (31.9 overall) --> Buying
RB13 Travis Etienne (40.4) --> Mixing in
WR27 Christian Kirk (48.6) --> Mixing in
QB8 Trevor Lawrence (67.4) --> Buying
TE8 Evan Engram (95.2) --> Mixing in
WR54 Zay Jones (119.0) --> Mixing in
RB46 Tank Bigsby (141.7) --> Mixing in