The Las Vegas Raiders have a very stars and scrubs roster while trespassing in no man's land. We can draft them all on Underdog Fantasy with promo code 'UNDERBLOG' to match your first deposit up to $100. We have the biggest fantasy football tournament of all time ($15M) right now.
Of course the Raiders were 30th in penalty yards last year, yet made Derek Carr the fall guy. The passing offense was fine, ranking 13th in EPA per dropback while quietly finishing 4th in big passes. They ran into bad "luck" with turnovers (25th) and red zone touchdown rate (26th) but otherwise were at least fine enough to make Davante Adams a total stud without Aaron Rodgers. The run game was league average in all categories thanks to Josh Jacobs, who was running behind a league average or worse OL. Coach Josh McDaniels has his work cut out this year with his stars upset and likely a slight downgrade at QB. Throw in the 29th-ranked defense and there's major "tear it down" risk.
3-WR Sets (18th in snaps, 64% of snaps)
WR: Davante Adams --> Cam Sims
WR: Jakobi Meyers --> Tre Tucker (R)
SLOT: Hunter Renfrow --> DeAndre Carter
TE: Michael Mayer (R) --> Austin Hooper
2-WR Sets (9th in snaps, 31% of snaps)
WR: Davante Adams --> DeAndre Carter
WR: Jakobi Meyers --> Hunter Renfrow
SLOT TE: Michael Mayer (R) --> O.J. Howard
INLINE TE: Austin Hooper --> Jesper Horsted
RB Usage (20th in expected half PPR)
GOAL LINE: Josh Jacobs --> Zamir White
PASSING DOWN: Josh Jacobs --> Ameer Abdullah
Offensive Line (pretty forgettable)
LT: Kolton Miller (good returning starter)
LG: Dylan Parham (2022 3rd round returner)
C: Andre James (mid returning starter)
RG: Alex Bars (bad returning starter)
RT: Jermaine Eluemunor (average returning starter)
Jimmy Garoppolo was the QB28 per game in both 2021 and 2022 with an elite supporting cast, so there's no point in talking about his own fantasy projections. Instead let's focus on him versus Derek Carr, so we can translate it to the others in the offense. Since 2021, Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo are almost identical in all QB-driven stats: completion percentage over expected (-0.4% vs. +0.1%), PFF grade (72 vs. 71), big time throw rate (5% vs. 4%), turnover play rate (3% vs. 4%). The primary differences are Jimmy G throws shallower, throws over the middle more often, and gets the ball out quicker, while Carr pushes the ball downfield and to the sideline more, holds the ball longer, and can scramble just a tad more. I'd rather have Carr, especially with Garoppolo's injury history. He's on track to play Week 1 following a delayed foot surgery, but it's always something with him. Expect more play action, under center dropbacks, and maybe some quick throws with this 2023 offense.
Davante Adams has been the WR3 and WR2 per game in two different environments since 2021. He'll have another new QB this year, one that will not throw downfield as often. Adams led the NFL in deep targets last year (career-high 12.8 aDOT), leading to some valuable spike weeks. Adams also ran extra hot with TDs, scoring 5.2 more than expected on his workload. That'll regress. This year will have to be reception dominated, a skillset Adams certainly has. In fact, his two best years where the two seasons with a sub-10 average depth of target. Adams isn't without some warts (age-30 year, late season tanking, Brian Hoyer is the backup), but I think they're being over-scrutinized. The reality is Adams is in an all-time WR peak right now and still has juice, after setting a career high in forced missed tackles. Just ride this full-barreling wave in Round 2. ... Jakobi Meyers essentially signed a 2-year, $21M contract this offseason to be the new No. 2 receiver (video) over slot-only Hunter Renfrow. Meyers is probably best in the slot (career 65% snaps), too, which makes the fit interesting here if all three stay around. Releasing Renfrow makes very little sense cap-wise, while a trading team only needs to find $7M to fit him in. There are some real odds that he's moved, which would be good news for Renfrow (WR82 per game last year). Meyers fits well with quick-hitting Jimmy G but is a distant second option in an offense who's No. 2 WR (downfield threat Mack Hollins) ranked as the WR58 per game last year. As the No. 1 in a mid offense, Meyers was the WR36 in fantasy points over replacement per game. That's essentially his ceiling.
If you watched our prospect video on Michael Mayer, you'd know that he offers more receiving versatility (and slightly worse blocking) than the narratives surrounding his skillset. Last college season, he was 3rd in TE targets as an inline TE and was 2nd in TE targets from slot/wide per SIS. He also led in targets off of motion. Last year, the Raiders asked Darren Waller to block just 2% of the time, while lining up inline on just 17% of passing down snaps. The latter was a steep drop from his baseline 50% rate. Even going back to New England, coach Josh McDaniels is willing to put his TEs in the slot and out wide, so I like the fit for Mayer. He'll be backed up by veteran inline TE Austin Hooper, who only secured a one-year, $2.7M contract this offseason. If Mayer is any good, he has a path to upside TE2 volume as Jimmy G tends to throw the ball underneath. I'm relatively in.
Josh Jacobs beat the Hall Of Fame Game allegations en route to an RB4 and 5th overall finish in fantasy points over replacement per game. He set a career high in routes run but really made it count on the ground, only trailing Derrick Henry in carries. He also led the NFL with the highest rate of his team's carries inside the 10-yard line (85%). Jacobs was top-10 in elusiveness despite a major workload and running behind PFF's 17th-ranked run blocking. Already a pretty mid offense last year, Jacobs doesn't have much regression risk based on team or his own stats. He earned stud RB1 status with workload, and nothing should change there as long as his franchise tag doesn't linger into the season. ... He'll be complemented by 30-year-old Ameer Abdullah on some passing downs, while 2022 4th-rounder Zamir White is Jacobs' direct insurance on early downs. White did nothing as a rookie because Jacobs was so damn consistent, but there's some positive buzz this offseason and he at least has the size (6'0/215) and pedigree to handle a big workload if Jacobs were to miss time. Jacobs would be near the very top of the list of most likely to miss time this year, too.
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WR9 Davante Adams (13.5 overall) --> Buying
RB10 Josh Jacobs (28.0) --> Buying
WR56 Jakobi Meyers (120.7) --> Soft fading
WR80 Hunter Renfrow (185.1) --> Mixing in
TE26 Michael Mayer (203.6) --> Mixing in
QB31 Jimmy Garoppolo (211.8) --> Fading
RB68 Zamir White (213.8) --> Buying