The New York Jets added Aaron Rodgers this offseason if you hadn't heard, and his only objective (for us at least) is to fully unlock Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. We can draft them and their teammates on Underdog Fantasy with promo code 'UNDERBLOG' to match your first deposit up to $100. We have the biggest fantasy football tournament of all time ($15M) right now.
Almost none of these fancy stats mean anything to me with so many new faces here.
3-WR Sets (12th in snaps, 69% of snaps)
WR: Garrett Wilson --> Denzel Mims
WR: Corey Davis --> Randall Cobb
SLOT: Allen Lazard --> Mecole Hardman
TE: Tyler Conklin --> C.J. Uzomah
2-WR Sets (19th in snaps, 25% of snaps)
WR: Garrett Wilson --> Allen Lazard
WR: Corey Davis --> Mecole Hardman
SLOT TE: Tyler Conklin --> Zack Kuntz (R)
INLINE TE: C.J. Uzomah --> Jeremy Ruckert
RB Usage (14th in expected half PPR)
GOAL LINE: Breece Hall --> Zonovan Knight
PASSING DOWN: Breece Hall --> Michael Carter
Offensive Line (extremely boom-bust)
LT: Duane Brown (38yo mid returning starter)
LG: Laken Tomlinson (mid returning starter)
C: Joe Tippmann (2nd round rookie)
RG: Alijah Vera-Tucker (stud coming off injury)
RT: Mekhi Becton (1 start since 2020 rookie year)
Aaron Rodgers is coming off his career worst season in QB rating, passer rating, and rushing yards per game. Was that a product of being 39 years old? Or boredom on a middling Packers roster? We'll certainly find out! Rodgers is on a 22-game streak without 300 passing yards, something he absolutely needs now that he's only averaging 5 rushing yards per game. Even if Rodgers bounces back in a new scenery, his slow-paced preference works against his fantasy appeal and into coach Robert Saleh's desire to play balanced football. The Jets were 31st in 4th-down aggressiveness last year. Rodgers' upside is similar to his 2021 season when he was the fantasy QB6 en route to his 4th NFL MVP. A fringe QB1/2 season is most likely behind a very boom-bust offense line.
Garrett Wilson finished as the WR23 and 55th overall player in fantasy points over replacement per game as a rookie. That was a miracle given QB play. He was the WR8 without Zach Wilson, while the WR60 with him. Across the entire season, the Buckeye was the WR16 in expected fantasy points. On tape, Wilson's after-catch playmaking is obvious, and it's a skillset Rodgers has attached to previously with at-snap audibles for screens. Wilson reminds me of a young Odell Beckham. ... Allen Lazard secured the bag ($22M guaranteed over multiple years) thanks to Rodgers. In a slightly better role to this one last year, Lazard was the WR42 per game on a solid 1.6 yards per route run. His size is a weapon in the red zone and on blocking downs, but he will be an ancillary target next to Wilson in this offense. Lazard is 27 years old. ... Corey Davis remains a secret trade candidate on a non-guaranteed $11M contract, as Davis and Lazard overlap in a lot of areas. Davis, 28 years old, is a do-everything boundary player with limited play-making ability. That's an underrated profile in general, but a Jets rotation would severely cap his fantasy appeal. I draft him late just in case the Chiefs swoop in. ... Mecole Hardman is only on a 1-year, $4M contract, which is barely more than 33-year-old Randall Cobb ($2.5M). They will split leftover slot snaps for those playing in 24-person leagues.
Tyler Conklin is quietly in the middle of a 3-year, $20M contract. He also quietly ran 29 routes per game, so with Rodgers upgrading the passing numbers of the offense, I'm optimistic Conklin can be a TE2 as a last-round best ball pick. He won't fully make a difference until his mediocre 87% route rate and way-too-high 60% inline rate improves, however. This is a small win, small loss selection. ... He'll be backed up by C.J. Uzomah.
The Jets want to use their RBs heavily. Breece Hall had 15.3, 21.8, 15.7, and 17.2 expected half PPR points in his final four games before tearing his ACL in October. A college bellcow drafted to be a bellcow, Hall was pacing to be one of the few NFL bellcows. He was a more consistent rusher than I expected, and his big-play ability completely translated. Hall's soft hands pair well with screen-happy Rodgers, and there's little goal-line competition. All we need is health. From The Athletic, "The Jets sound confident that Hall will be back in Week 1, but how much of a workload he can take on will be a question going into the season." Sounds like Hall is relatively on track for Week 1, but he will likely need the first month to get his feet wet. A top-5 RB finish from October on would be very unsurprising. ... Hall's backups are Michael Carter, who went from a promising player to averaging just 3.5 YPC last year. Carter has more draft capital and experience than 2022 UDFA Zonovan Knight and 20-year-old 5th-round rookie Israel Abanikanda. If Hall is slow to return, expect Carter and Knight to split duties.
For the best average draft positions, use Underdog Fantasy because we update them daily only using paid drafts.
WR8 Garrett Wilson (12.7 overall) --> Buying in
RB11 Breece Hall (30.7) --> BUYING
WR52 Allen Lazard (110.7) --> Mixing in
QB16 Aaron Rodgers (121.2) --> Mixing in
TE24 Tyler Conklin (190.3) --> Mixing in
WR87 Mecole Hardman (207.0) --> Fading
RB67 Israel Abanikanda (213.0) --> Fading
WR98 Corey Davis (214.2) --> Buying