Geno Smith put the Seattle Seahawks back on the map, and this year's unit is arguably even better. We can draft them all on Underdog Fantasy with promo code 'UNDERBLOG' to match your first deposit up to $100. We have the biggest fantasy football tournament of all time ($15M) right now.
The Seattle Seahawks weren't perfect in Geno Smith's first year, but they were a very fun team. Their offense led the NFL in deep ball catch rate and were 5th in big play runs. The entire skill group is full of home run threats, and Smith's accuracy is a weapon of it's own. There's still room for this No. 26 adjusted sack rate OL to improve (they're young). Same with the defense (27th in EPA allowed). If both improve, this team is a sneaky contender in a down NFC. If neither improve, at least we can have plenty of fun in fantasy land.
3-WR Sets (10th in snaps, 70% of snaps)
WR: DK Metcalf --> Dareke Young
WR: Tyler Lockett --> Cody Thompson
SLOT: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (R) --> Dee Eskridge
TE: Noah Fant --> Will Dissly
2-WR Sets (14th in snaps, 27% of snaps)
WR: DK Metcalf --> Dee Eskridge
WR: Tyler Lockett --> Jaxon Smith-Njigba (R)
SLOT TE: Noah Fant --> Colby Parkinson
INLINE TE: Will Dissly --> Tyler Mabry
RB Usage (29th in expected half PPR)
GOAL LINE: Kenneth Walker --> Zach Charbonnet (R)
PASSING DOWN: Zach Charbonnet (R) --> DeeJay Dallas
Offensive Line (mid but young)
LT: Charles Cross (2022 1st rounder)
LG: Damien Lewis (decent young returner)
C: Evan Brown (mid new starter)
RG: Phil Haynes (mid new starter)
RT: Abraham Lucas (2022 3rd rounder)
Geno Smith was the QB9 in PFF grade, QB4 in big time throw rate, QB7 success rate, RB14 in EPA per play, and the QB1 in completion percentage over expected. On a smaller sample in 2021 in Russ relief, these numbers were replicated. In other words, Geno's recent play feels less like a fluke than what you'd think. His accuracy is elite. His downfield aggressiveness is perfect for the skill group. And he runs just enough (21 yards per game) to keep the chains moving. The Seahawks also let him cook, finishing 6th in neutral pass rate. He's a perfectly fine fantasy QB1/2, especially when stacked with his teammates.
DK Metcalf has been the WR16 and WR17 in fantasy points over replacement per game, and last year he was unlucky. Metcalf was the WR13 in expected points on the 3rd most expected TDs (8.3), yet he only scored 6 of them despite being, you know, 6'3/229 DK Metcalf. That should positively regress going into his age-26 season. The increased target competition is a minor threat, but there's extremely little overlap between Metcalf and first-round rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who eats out of the slot. JSN is a baller (a la Keenan Allen) and is great fit with Geno, who throws dimes over the middle. Here's our pre-draft prospect video on him. JSN will be primarily competing with Tyler Lockett for snaps and targets, as they both play some slot and live over the middle. The 31-year-old remained extremely efficient last year, averaging 8.8 yards per target on an outrageous 9 TDs on just 4.1 expected TDs. That's the 2nd-most TDs over expected in the entire NFL. Lockett was the WR19 per game on just WR36 fantasy usage, so if his play declines in year nine, he doesn't have the volume to hold onto fantasy WR2/3 status, especially with JSN in the mix. It wouldn't be a surprise if Lockett and JSN traded off decent weeks as upside flex plays, while Metcalf finally solidifies himself as the alpha of the offense.
The Seahawks' TEs were 8th in combined fantasy usage, but this is a TE by committee. Noah Fant, Will Dissly, and Colby Parkinson all ran 225+ routes last year, all of whomsth saw 34+ targets. With JSN in the mix, this position group likely sees less action. Fant has to live up to his draft pedigree to have a chance for some TE2 appeal. This rotation is extremely hard to overcome. He was the TE37 per game last year.
Kenneth Walker's very poor success rate is largely because of a Seahawks OL that was 29th in blown block rate per SIS. His big swing eyes would be more problematic if he didn't rip off big runs at the highest rate in the NFL. When we average out the good with the bad, Walker finished with +0.5 yards per carry over expected per NextGenStats. That's good, as was finishing as the RB12 in fantasy points over replacement per game. Where he'll miss out is on passing downs, given his poor metrics in yards per route run and pass blocking grade. That's not a surprise based on his college profile and plays into why 2nd-round rookie Zach Charbonnet is an ideal complement. Charbonnet is a consistent rusher who plays extremely well in the pass game for someone his size. If this was just Charbonnet's backfield, he'd be a fringe fantasy RB1 given his bellcow talent. If Walker stays healthy, he's probably on your fantasy bench as a stud insurance play. But make sure to track who is playing at the goal line. The interesting wrinkle here is that Charbonnet is bigger than Walker and had an elite 72% success rate on carries with three-or-fewer yards to go. I really wish these two RBs had their own lead jobs. Both are quite good.
For the best average draft positions, use Underdog Fantasy because we update them daily only using paid drafts.
WR15 DK Metcalf (28.7 overall) --> Mixing in
RB16 Kenneth Walker (52.6) --> Mixing in
WR32 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (63.0) --> Mixing in
WR34 Tyler Lockett (64.3) --> Mixing in
RB31 Zach Charbonnet (101.0) --> Buying
QB15 Geno Smith (114.2) --> Only in stacks
TE31 Noah Fant (211.7) --> Fading