The Tampa Bay Bucs have a pair of good WRs, but they need a break out from the QB, RB, or TE room to compete without Tom Brady. We can draft them all on Underdog Fantasy with promo code 'UNDERBLOG' to match your first deposit up to $100. We have the biggest fantasy football tournament of all time ($15M) right now.
Without Tom Brady, there's no way coach Todd Bowles allows this team to be 1st in passes per game and last in runs per game. This identity shift is hard to comprehend but won't be pretty. Brady avoided sacks in ways that the new QB room can't dream of doing behind a quite bad OL, and the defense isn't as star-studded right now as it was a few years ago. This is the beginning of a long rebuild after this aging roster doubled-down on the Brady era.
3-WR Sets (30th in snaps, 43% of snaps)
WR: Chris Godwin --> Trey Palmer (R)
WR: Mike Evans --> Deven Thompkins
SLOT: Russell Gage --> Kaylon Geiger
TE: Cade Otton --> Ko Keift
2-WR Sets (1st in snaps, 49% of snaps)
WR: Chris Godwin --> Russell Gage
WR: Mike Evans --> Trey Palmer (R)
SLOT TE: Cade Otton --> Payne Durham (R)
INLINE TE: Ko Keift --> David Wells
RB Usage (12th in expected half PPR)
GOAL LINE: Rachaad White --> Ke'Shawn Vaughn
PASSING DOWN: Rachaad White --> Chase Edmonds
Offensive Line (one of the very worst)
LT: Tristan Wirfs (stud but switching from RT)
LG: Matt Feiler (new, only signed for $2.5M)
C: Ryan Jansen (stud but 32yo off major injury)
RG: Cody Mauch (2nd round rookie from NDSU)
RT: Luke Geodeke (mid '22 2nd rounder switching to RT)
Baker Mayfield signed a 1-year, $4M contract to compete for the starting job with Kyle Trask, who played behind Blaine Gabbert all of last season. Only 2 QBs graded worse than Mayfield per PFF on a career-low 6.5 yards per attempt. Like always, Mayfield takes too many sacks for how little he creates. His setup is brutal once again, behind an OL that's filled with new faces and players switching positions. There's a chance this team has it's eyes squared on Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Quinn Ewers, and other college prospects.
Mike Evans (WR17 fantasy points over replacement per game) and Chris Godwin (WR29) no longer have the elite upside now that this defensive minded head coach is taking control back from Tom Brady, who was 1st in pass attempts by a wide margin in 2021 and 2022. Evans will be 30 years old and in year 10 when WRs really decline. Last year, Evans had his lowest PFF grade of his career and a lower-than-normal 1.7 yards per route run. The good news is this is mostly priced in on Underdog Fantasy (ADP: WR35), though I wish he'd be traded to a contender rather than renegotiate with the Bucs. ... Godwin didn't look fully healthy last year. His 1.7 yards per route run and PFF grade were the lowest of his career, as was his average depth of target (5.7). His target volume could massively decrease without check down Tom, but hopefully Godwin is more explosive and can work intermediate again. There's a chance he plays less in the slot this year, and Baker supporting an upside WR2 would be a miracle. ... Russell Gage is on a massive contract still, and his playing time will go up without Julio Jones out of the picture. Gage was stuck on the perimeter, meaning he's out of his own comfort zone out of the slot. He could have deep league appeal if he's back in the slot more, or if the Bucs start selling starters at the trade deadline.
Cade Otton was the TE34 last year as a rookie because he never projected as a plus receiving option. He had an iffy 0.9 yards per route run on a checkdown-only 6.0 average depth of target. With TDs expected to be low, Otton is only for sicko leagues.
The Bucs RBs had 25 more receptions than the No. 3 RB reception team in the NFL, yet they didn't matter in fantasy. Part of that was a brutal OL that ranked 25th in PFF run blocking, but part of that was the talent of the RBs. Rachaad White is penciled in as the lead back after an iffy rookie season, where he was the RB46 in PFF grade, the RB60 in yards after contact per carry, and the RB51 in broken tackle rate out of 61 qualifiers. His best skill is as a receiving complement, not as a goal line option. The Bucs just don't have that profile on the team right now, with Ke'Shawn Vaughn (final year of rookie deal), Chase Edmonds (cooked), and injured UDFA Sean Tucker behind him. They make sense as a team to land a cheap veteran to land in the power role. Ultimately, I don't see White as a fit with Mayfield, nor do I see upside in this mid offense.
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WR29 Chris Godwin (56.0 overall) --> Mixing in
WR35 Mike Evans (68.0) --> Mixing in
RB27 Rachaad White (84.6) --> Fading
QB33 Baker Mayfield (214.4) --> Fading
TE35 Cade Otton (214.9) --> Fading
RB79 Sean Tucker (215.8) --> Fading
WR116 Russell Gage (215.9) --> Mixing in