We're sooooooooooooo back. Expect another film breakdown on YouTube this Monday. Here were last week's recaps for those who missed out:
This one will be controversial, but Malik Nabers cemented my believe in him as an upside WR2 in fantasy. He saw 6 targets and 1 carry on 17 routes, good for a 35% targets per route average which would be absolutely elite if extrapolated out. Of course, that's probably not sustainable, but there was some serious flash on film. He made multiple circus grabs near the sideline against man coverage, one of them was on a pre-snap check from Daniel Jones. Nabers also just looks fast in all of his routes and the rest of the receiver room had an iffy performance. The headlines went towards Jones' two INTs, but they were overrated in my opinion. Jalin Hyatt can't get owned by CB Derek Stingley that hard on a single coverage snap, and the rookie TE can't look away when Jones wants to hit the checkdown. The latter was obviously unacceptable by Jones. It just doesn't matter too much when the storyline should be that Jones looked athletic and healthy coming off a torn ACL a few weeks before Week 1. He made some nice throws down the field (plenty were dropped by his receivers) and moved well. That's ultimately matters most when projecting the rest of this year out.
Xavier Worthy was so involved early. It was unsustainable how much he was used, but it's also so obvious how much fun Andy Reid is going to have with his new toy. Worthy moved around the formation more than anyone. He played in the slot (where he had a TD against off man coverage). He played out wide to run clear out routes and shallow crosses (plenty of mesh with the Chiefs). And he was the motion man multiple times, setting up two designed touches. The Chiefs did throw Rashee Rice some underneath passes, too, but it does seem like Worthy is going to be getting a chunk of the fun plays this year. Ultimately, Patrick Mahomes is going to be a huge winner. I don't know how you defend this team now that they have legit speed. The vibes are immaculate in Kansas City.
Raheem Mostert played 9-of-11 snaps with Tua Tagovailoa, even with De'Von Achane available. Of course, this gap won't hold in the regular season, but it's a good sign for Mostert's value that he was the starter still. This is the latest a player coming off 21 total touchdowns has gone in fantasy for what it's worth. Meanwhile, Achane saw 3 targets before his day was done. They came in all different ways, too. Good sign.
Devin Singletary played 29-of-33 snaps with the Giants' 1st-team offense. He played on 3rd-and-longs and handled the goal-line job. His vision was solid throughout the outing, too. This game was without RB2 Tyrone Tracy for what it's worth, but just flashing a bellcow role in the preseason is enough to call him a winner.
Tank Bigsby won the Jaguars RB2 job with this performance in my opinion. He was clearly tested at what were glaring weaknesses as a rookie, and he passed the test. Bigsby caught a screen pass and made a nice move upfield, caught a pass out of the slot, and even caught a pass out wide. In pass protection, he made two blocks up the middle (one on a double A gap blitz and another on a stunt against a DT). And he's ran with juice as a ballcarrier (don't let last year's YPC fool you when some of those carries were at FB on 3rd-and-1). Bigsby is not only draftable in the late rounds on Underdog Fantasy, but he's an obvious target with similar contingent upside as the RBs going 3-8 rounds earlier.
Bo Nix won the starting job with this performance. There were two impressive throws on 3rd-and-longs that were delivered on time, accurately, and beyond the sticks from inside the pocket. There were countless other short completions or designed quick hitters that kept the chains moving. They aren't flashy often, but Nix can definitely be an athlete. There was a play with two defensive lineup fell into his lap quickly and instead of taking a 5-yard sack, the rookie was able to scramble around for a gain of 1. Once again, nothing groundbreaking, but these are pros to his game. Through his two preseason games, Nix really hasn't thrown an inaccurate pass (maybe one off play action with an unblocked edge rusher crashing in). These are the traits I saw when I ranked him as my 15th overall player in the draft.
Steelers QBs. Russell Wilson drew the start after leading the team out of the tunnel in the preseason opener, but the offensive line, particularly RT Broderick Jones, didn't afford him any time. New OC Arthur Smith needs his tackles to pass protect in order to run his downfield pass game set up by under center play action. That didn't happen here. Wilson could've avoided 1-2 sacks with better feel or more burst, so it wasn't entirely the OL's fault... Then Justin Fields came in. His athleticism continues to glow, but he basically went an entire half of play without getting a thrown pass out on time. That's hardly an exaggeration. He made some awesome second chance plays out of the pocket, but it wasn't a sustainable NFL offense under him. Fields also missed his wide open post WR on an air-mailed ball. The default continues to be Russ > Fields. Both QBs just played into their weaknesses here.
All Bills WRs. This one is trending into a heavy rotation with more 2-TE sets than other offenses. Through two preseason games, starter snaps have gone: Keon Coleman (14-of-14), Khalil Shakir (10-of-14), Mack Hollins or MVS (10-of-14), and Curtis Samuel (3-of-5). Their roles make the splits even tighter, too. Coleman has 0.63 yards per route on a 19% target per route share, while handling the most difficult routes on the perimeter. Shakir has a 30% target per route share, but he's only played on the outside on 10% of his preseason snaps and could be a 3-WR set player only who specializes on less-valuable underneath throws like he did last year. Samuel didn't suit up in the second game due to injury, but he had 2 targets on 9 routes in the opener while lining up on the outside on 25% of his snaps as the go-to manufactured touch player. Hollins started over MVS in the second game, running a route on 8-of-9 1st-team dropbacks, but he's never been a volume earner. Does this rotation sound fun to you?
Marvin Mims has lost the training camp battle between towering giants Josh Reynolds and (mostly) Tim Patrick. After getting an honorary 1st snap with the 1st-team offense last week before being demoted to the 2nd-team offense last week, Mims was gracefully sent to the 2nd-team only. There's no way around it. He's a rotational backup with designed-play or slot-contingent upside. For most leagues, that's worthless. For the Troy Franklin truthers, it's even worse. The players to draft in Denver go Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, a very large gap, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, Josh Reynolds, and Tim Patrick.
Chiefs backup RBs. Deneric Prince was demoted to RB4 in the pecking order, as Carson Steele was the one to mix in behind Isiah Pacheco with the 1st-team offense. It's clear Prince was given a chance early in camp to establish himself, and he didn't run away with it. Steele is a massive back but lacks elusiveness. There was a 1st-read look to him in the slot and Mahomes decided to not throw it because he didn't get open. He's draftable in the deepest of fantasy leagues because he's in the mix -- he just might be their fullback this year -- but the easiest solution to the Chiefs RB2 job is simply Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who missed with an illness. CEH was given $1.2M in guarantees this offseason. You can do worse in Round 17-18 on Underdog Fantasy. Much worse.
Stefon Diggs played in 2-WR sets over Tank Dell again. Through 16 dropbacks including last weeks game, routes have been Collins (94%), Diggs (81%), and Dell (69%). Diggs has played in the slot on 42% of his snaps, a rate that'll be higher when the Texans are in 3-WR sets. That's been 33% for Dell. It's tough for a part-time player to be an every-week starter, but C.J. Stroud seems to be so good that he'll lift Dell up, even if he's more inconsistent than we'd like. Dell is simply too good on these downfield routes to not get his chances at explosive plays, like the TD he had in the preseason opener. The real winner is Nico Collins. He alpha'd a man-coverage corner for a big play in this one and should be on the field for just as high of a rate as he was last year, even with both WRs active.
Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin played with the 1st-team offense, while Samaje Perine's run mostly came with the backups. It looks like it'll be Williams and McLaughlin to open the year, with 5th-round rookie Audric Estime providing insurance value as the RB3 and potential pass protection specialist. Perine can be released at any point for cap savings.
Drake Maye had 15 dropbacks and flashed on a few of them. His two best reps were intermediate/deep passes over the middle. He had a backside dig that was delivered on time, and then had a seam ball thrown right on the money. Maye also showcased some fantasy ceiling on a zone-read keeper TD in the red zone and had two scrambles. Hell yeah. The outing wasn't perfect, however. Maye's short-area accuracy was off on at least two throws, as it was in college. He had a fumbled snap from under center. And finally took a 3rd-and-10 sack because he was hesitant on ripping in a dig route. In general, the tools are clearly there, but he still has plenty to work on. Hopefully we see Maye and Jacoby Brissett (who struggled) for another extended stretch next weekend.
Bucky Irving. The veterans once again rested and Chase Edmonds once again missed time an injury, but Irving drew the start and looked decent on his touches. He has some nice bounce in his step, even if he doesn't have the long speed or size to be a total difference maker, and I thought he made the right cutback/decision on 4-of-5 runs. Equally as important, 1st-round rookie C Graham Barton once again looked like a total stud.
Kimani Vidal played! And looked good!!! The Chargers didn't suit up Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, leaving "starter" Jaret Patterson, Kimani Vidal, and Isaiah Spiller competing for touches as the early-year RB3. The offensive line played well when the starters were out there, and Vidal took advantage while making some nice cutbacks and showing some burst at the first level. He's definitely more stocky/slow than super explosive, but this Chargers coaching staff is used to that style (see: Blake Corum, Gus Bus, etc). Some have guessed Vidal doesn't make the 53-man roster. This performance certainly helped his odds of making it. We also need to remember the Vidal late-round dart throw was always about the later part of the year when the fragile RB starters are unlikely to be healthy or effective.
Andrei Iosivas sat with the Bengals' starters, while 3rd-round rookie Jermaine Burton played. Burton did shake his Cover 3 corner on a turned-down go route that he created separation on and had a 3rd-and-13 conversion on a deep curl route against zone. His speed is real. He's just on the outside looking in for 3-WR set snaps early on.
Taysom Hill is not going away, even with new OC Klint Kubiak. He lined up at X receiver on the 1st snap of last week's game and was the starting RB on the 1st snap this week. Hill also played TE, FB, and WR throughout his two dozen snaps. Most notably, Hill received a goal-line carry for a touchdown. With the Saints backup RB situation looking awful, Hill has value on sites where he's listed as a TE.
Hendon Hooker looked better than just about all the other backup QBs I watched this weekend. He is still getting a feel for a totally new offense than what he was used to at Tennessee, but Hooker has a live arm and legs. There were a couple of nice progressions in this one. It's unclear if the Lions will name him the QB2. I just think he has long-term potential.
Keenan Allen doesn't look the same. There was a concerning rep against man coverage last week, and then there was a slow-developing deep out route out of the slot against man coverage where the nickel basically ran the route for him. Allen is in year-12 as a 32-year-old right now, with 9th overall pick Rome Odunze begging to unseat him in 2-WR sets. If I were the Bears, Odunze is in there on Week 1. But the veteran is likely going to have a long leash given his career production.
Jaylen Warren left with a hamstring injury and didn't return. Those are often 2-6 week injuries depending on the severity. That puts his Week 1 status up in the air, and his setback risk is notable even when he does return. It's not time to fully panic, but we can't ignore a soft-tissue injury just because we like the player. Najee Harris has been solid to me on tape. I like that Harris has lost weight. What I haven't liked is 2023 1st-rounder Broderick Jones, who was specifically killed in pass protection at right tackle. The Steelers have been moving him between left and right tackle, potentially stunting his growth at either spot. Just something to watch.
Jaylen Wright didn't play due to a "minor" injury.
Braelon Allen played behind Isaiah Davis on early downs after running as the RB2 last week. I still believe the training camp and Preseason Week 1 usage more than this, but it's at least worth monitoring.
Jahan Dotson once again started, played in the slot in 3-WR sets with the 1st-team offense, played in 3-of-5 snaps in 2-WR sets with the 1st-team offense (which is just okay), and then played with the 2nd-team offense as an outside receiver only. This mirrors Preseason Week 1. The Commanders are obviously testing Dotson's fit within the offense and are coming up with plans depending on who wins roles. Dyami Brown can play on the outside, while 3rd-round rookie Luke McCaffrey can play the slot. The floor is simply lower than we had imagined.... While we're here, the Commanders offense is going to be really high in RPO rate. It's been a horizontal offense with lots of pre-snap decisions made, whether that's screens, zone reads, or slot fades based on the coverage. It makes evaluating Jayden Daniels quite difficult, but it also means the potentially problematic OL can be hidden.
Ja'Lynn Polk only played 2-of-15 snaps with the 1st-team offense. It's far too early to write off a 2nd-round rookie in this wide open of a depth chart, but it'd also be nice if he was playing over Tyquan Thornton and Jalen Reagor. Polk did make a couple defenders miss on a check-and-release route in the flats and caught a bubble screen for no gain with Maye on the field. His lone target with the 1st-team offense was an incomplete go ball against press man coverage, where Polk's below-average long speed was evident. The Patriots have used him in the slot on 54% of his preseason snaps so far. That means his primary competition could actually be Pop Douglas and K.J. Osborn, not the dusty outside receivers.
Javon Baker didn't do it for me in last week's writeup (he kept falling at the top of his routes), and he didn't do it for me this week either. Baker was jammed out of bounds on a well-thrown go ball, dropped a diving pass on a nicely-thrown post, thrown out of bounds against press covevrage again, and then jammed on a slant route that Maye wanted to throw on a 1st read.
Kirk Cousins didn't play this game because he's coming off a torn achilles. Michael Penix didn't play and won't play the next preseason game either because the coaching staff said he is already good enough. What??? If the staff is this bullish on their 1st-round rookie QB, then what's going to prevent them from starting at some point in 2024?