There's math involved here, but let's not make it scary. The takeaways don't require an economics degree, nor does the simplicity of the models I created. Essentially what I'm doing here is saying how many fantasy points the average player in an average offense should score based on that player's usage, adjusting for how close their carries/targets are to the end zone, the distance to the sideline, the down-and-distance of the play, and some other variables. The thought is that in a small sample, it's easy for a player to vastly over or under-perform their usage but that's not sticky to the next season. To avoid falling for small samples, I do math. Let's get to it.

Fantasy Football RBs

1. There are 4 RBs who played absurdly good football last year, so much so that they are negative regression candidates despite being good players on good teams: Derrick Henry (+6.0 half PPR over expected), Jahmyr Gibbs (+4.9), Saquon Barkley (+4.0), and James Cook (+3.4). To put that into context, the next best group of starters in this metric were down at +1.5, which is a more sustainable "hey we're good at football and will beat this model" pace.

2. Environment does matter for this efficiency. In fact, it was the story of the 2024 fantasy football season. Derrick Henry was at +1.0 HPPR over expected in his final season with the Titans, which immediately vaulted to a league-high +6.0 while playing next to Lamar Jackson. Saquon Barkley was at -0.5 in his final season with the Giants, then won a Super Bowl on +4.0 fantasy points over expected. Josh Jacobs was at -3.3 in his final season with the Raiders, right before finishing at +1.5 with the Packers. A similar trend happened with David Montgomery, Christian McCaffrey, and others in previous years. Copy/pasting previous efficiency stats on players changing offenses is a very dangerous game that I won't sign up to play.

3. James Cook is the poster child of negative regression of the upcoming 2025 season. Cook had +0.6 and +0.1 half PPR points over expected in his first two seasons, then leaped to +3.4 last year. The major driver for that spike were touchdowns. He scored 6.0 more total touchdowns than his usage would indicate, including ones from 65, 49, 46, and 41 yards out. I expect him to continue being an above-average player, but Cook was the RB20 in expected half PPR points.

4. Aaron Jones scored 5.9 fewer touchdowns than his 2024 usage would indicate, the worst rate in the league. That was partially bad luck, partially a bad offensive line, and partially a skillset issue. If he played out last season with this improved OL and perceived new commitment to the ground game, then Jones is a potential smash at cost with this positive regression. The hard part is determining if his body's wear and tear and the addition of bruiser Jordan Mason make his usage drop off. The answer is probably somewhere in between the two, and a signal that Mason has plenty of upside near his 100th overall ADP.

5. The Chiefs RBs collectively scored 10 TDs last year, but their predicted TD total was at 19.2, making them the worst scoring backfield versus expectations. Yes, this is a Kareem Hunt stat. But spinning it forward, this does make Isiah Pacheco a potential target if he can bounce back from injury. Those 19.2 expected scores in this backfield were the 8th most across the league. For context, the Lions led with 27.2 expected scores and the Giants were dead last with 10.5 expected scores. That's a hilarious gap.

6. The Steelers let Najee Harris walk before drafting Kaleb Johnson in Round 3. I can see why. Pittsburgh finished with 9 fewer touchdowns from their backfield than their usage would indicate, only trailing the Chiefs from the paragraph above. Harris scored 5 fewer than expected, while Jayden Warren scored 4 fewer than expected. Yikes. Johnson is a workhorse with size, and the addition of Aaron Rodgers behind a young and improving OL has me bullish on Johnson in half PPR. He's the rookie RB I'm targeting the most.

7. Now let's play the "Who Is Washed Game" by comparing 2024 fantasy points over expected to their baseline over their previous seasons, and we'll do so with highly drafted players who will be 28 years old or later. Got it? Cool.

• Christian McCaffrey: +14% in 2022 → +24% in 2023 → -15% over expected in 4 games last year

• Derrick Henry: +17% → +8% → +43% in 19 games last year

• Joe Mixon: -12% → -12% → -2% in 16 games last year

• Alvin Kamara: -9% → -12% → -0% in 14 games last year

• James Conner: +5% → +10% → +7% in 16 games last year

• David Montgomery: -0% → +6% → +8% in 15 games last year

• Aaron Jones: +9% → -10% → -8% in 18 games last year

• Tony Pollard: +25% → -24% → -12% in 16 games last year

• Austin Ekeler: +8% → -18% → +3% in 15 games last year

• Nick Chubb: +22% → DNP → -19% in 8 games last year

8. Let's play the same game with younger players who dealt with injuries last year:

• Breece Hall: +21% → +14% → +0% in 16 games last year

• Isiah Pacheco: +7% → -0% → -29% in 10 games last year

• Brian Robinson: -19% (shot) → +20% → -9% in 14 games last year

• Jaylen Warren: -6% → +0% → -14% in 16 games last year

• Travis Etienne: -0% → +6% → -23% in 15 games last year

• J.K. Dobbins: +15% → DNP → +4% in 14 games last year

Fantasy Football WRs

9. There is not a chart I make that should make you consider anyone else other than Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01.

10. Malik Nabers leading all WRs in expected half PPR points cannot be overlooked at how rare that is as a rookie. Nabers may not get quite as many catch-up targets with the entire situation looking better, but he also could be asked to run new routes and have better odds of downfield receptions with much-improved QB play.

11. Only Ja'Marr Chase had more fantasy points over replacement per game than Chris Godwin, who played 7 games before a dislocated ankle. He was cooking. He was also really benefiting from elite play designs from ex-OC Liam Coen. Negative regression, the loss of a play caller, more target competition, and this injury all work against him getting anywhere near last year's numbers.

12. Terry McLaurin is the biggest negative TD regression candidate at WR this year. His usage would expect him to score 6.1 times, but he actually scored 13. That's simply unsustainable, even acknowledging how good he and Jayden Daniels are. McLaurin was the WR36 in expected half PPR points last year, finishing as the actual per-game WR14 thanks to those long touchdowns. I like him in Round 4, not Round 3, and believe he should go after his dual-threat QB in half PPR.

13. It'll also be difficult for Mike Evans to repeat his 2024 numbers, particularly those touchdowns. He scored 4.2 more times than his usage would indicate, and like I mentioned with Chris Godwin from above, there are environmental reasons to lower his expectations in 2025 beyond just his age. Evans is still a total beast, but the spreadsheets warn against WR1/2 production heading into drafts. Luckily he's going as the WR20 on Underdog right now, so a lot of this is priced in.

14. I like to spot #good players who were unlucky with receiving TDs in the offseason as all-too-obvious positive regression candidates. That list is fairly short this year but is headlined by Jaylen Waddle and George Pickens. Waddle scored 2.4 fewer times than his (lackluster) usage would indicate, despite having 80-yard touchdown speed in his back pocket. Pickens' problems were largely QB driven, and the trade to the Cowboys solves that problem. The former Steeler scored 2.5 fewer times than his usage would expect.

15. Remember all of those Nick Westbrook-Ikhine touchdowns? Good times. He's a Dolphin now, btw.

16. Now let's play the "Who Is Washed Game" by comparing 2024 fantasy points over expected to their baseline over their previous seasons, and we'll do so with highly drafted players who will be 30 years old or later.

• Davante Adams: +13% → -11% → -1% in 11 games with the Jets last year

• Mike Evans: +6% → +27% → +31% in 15 games last year

• Tyreek Hill: +17% → +31% → +2% in 17 games last year

• Courtland Sutton: -13% → +27% → +2% in 17 games last year

• Calvin Ridley: DNP → -8% → -0% in 17 games last year

• Stefon Diggs: +19% → +6% → +11% in 8 games last year

• Cooper Kupp: +29% → -9% → +6% in 14 games last year

• Keenan Allen: -3% → -0% → +14% in 13 games last year

• DeAndre Hopkins: +4% → -4% → +2% in 13 games last year

• Adam Thielen: -8% → -2% → +46% in 10 games last year. What?!?!?

• Tyler Lockett: +33% → +0% → +0% in 17 games last year

17. Some younger WRs who dealt with injuries last year:

• Deebo Samuel: -3% → +27% → -13% in 14 games last year

• Brandon Aiyuk: +17% → +38% → -23% in 7 games last year

• Michael Pittman: -8% → +1% → -6% in 16 games last year

• Christian Kirk: +4% → +21% → -12% in 8 games last year

Fantasy Football TEs

18. George Kittle remains The TE King at breaking my efficiency charts. He did so again by being the TE1 overall in fantasy points over replacement per game at 3.1 (with Taysom Hill finishing 2nd lol). What's so special about this 2024 Kittle season is that he didn't get lucky on TDs to drive this high-end efficiency. He was just a stone-cold baller at creating yards and catching everything thrown his way. Those are stickier ways year over year than playing the TD variance game, which Kittle can play as well. He was the TE1 overall in half PPR per game on TE5 usage.

19. Trey McBride easily paced the position in expected half PPR points per game (13.4). That number is key because only Malik Nabers, Davante Adams (Jets only), Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Puka Nacua finished with more usage per game than McBride, without any positional adjustments. McBride wasn't nearly as valuable as those options because he's less likely to break off really long plays and more importantly was extremely unlucky in the TD department as you'll see below (2 receiving TDs vs. 9 expected receiving TDs). Nothing has really changed about his environment either, so any time he's available in Round 3 is very justifiable. There's a case to be made that he could be the TE1 over Brock Bowers.

20. Tucker Kraft was the TE4 in fantasy poitns over replacement per game last year as a sophomore. Impressive. He ended the season with a 97% snap rate in the NFL playoffs, too. He's a well-rounded player with elite receiving efficiency. That's a great combo. That said, there is an underlying worry. There's just no way he can finish with +3.1 yards after reception over expected again. The second closest to that mark was freak of nature George Kittle down at +2.1 according to NextGenStats. He'll need to get more targets to make up for the obvious negative regression, but that doesn't sound like a crazy ask after what he showed on film last year.

20. The Bills were 2nd in EPA per play last year, yet Dalton Kincaid was the worst starting-level TE in fantasy points over replacement per game (-2.0). That's very difficult to do. This offseason, Kincaid has been spot resting and rehabbing two different knee injuries. A PCL injury and an extremely rare "Morel-Lavallée Lesion" which is basically fluid filling in between muscles and skin due to severe trauma. That's creeping me out.

21. Mark Andrews has broken the chart. He scored 5.8 more touchdowns than his usage would expect. Bruh. That is unbelievable and obviously unsustainable year over year, especially with an upside TE2 waiting for his own moment. Andrews converted 15 red zone targets to an NFL-high 11 red zone receiving touchdowns. For context, the other players with exactly 15 red zone targets had just 5, 6, and 7 scores on them.

22. Travis Kelce found himself on the opposite end of Mark Andrews with touchdowns. He scored 5.5 fewer times than expected, despite playing with Patrick Mahomes. Kelce had 25 red zone targets, which only trailed Ja'Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown last year, yet only had 3 red zone scores. Come on. That number likely climbs this year, but it also needs to with more target competition underneath coming from Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. That'll be okay in half PPR at 100th overall.

23. Now let's play the "Who Is Washed Game" by comparing 2024 fantasy points over expected to their baseline over their previous seasons, and we'll do so with highly drafted players who will be 30 years old or later.

• George Kittle: +40% → +30% → +31% in 15 games last year

• Jonnu Smith: -18% → +1% → +9% in 17 games last year

• Mark Andrews: -12% → +15% → +35% in 19 games last year

• Travis Kelce: +14% → 7% → -17% in 19 games last year

• Evan Engram: +8% → +2% → -14% in 9 games last year

• Dallas Goedert: +20% → +1% → +20% in 14 games last year

• Zach Ertz: -21% → -35% → -5% in 20 games last year

• Hunter Henry: +7% → +20% → -20% in 16 games last year