Over on YouTube, we looked at which teams performed much better and much worse than their projected points before last season started, and there were two main cheat codes to finding winners and losers: scouting OCs and OLs.
That shouldn't be a surprise. Understanding the intricacies of each takes a lot of film study (and knowing what you're even watching while doing so), and there aren't many stats that the Average Joe fantasy analyst can bring to evaluate them. That's less true when scouting QBs, WRs, RBs, and TEs because of the massive databases we have, so our edge is grinding the things that take time to figure out. Let's party:
Vikings: The interior OL was in shambles at points during 2024, and Sam Darnold was the QB3 while under pressure. It just wasn't a sustainable way to build an offense, hence these moves. The Vikings signed C Ryan Kelly and RG Will Fries, both from the Colts, to hefty deals so they can form a better interior pocket. Afterwards, Minnesota added 1st-round LG Donovan Jackson, who has a ton of experience out of Ohio State and even has LT experience in the event star Christian Darrisaw (ACL/MCL) has a setback. The good news is Darrisaw is cleared for training camp. This has the looks of the very best OLs if they can gel quickly.
Bears: It didn't take long for coach Ben Johnson to find three new interior line starters during the offseason. He traded for All Pro LG Joe Thuney and volatile 28-year-old RG Jonah Jackson, then signed athletic C Drew Dalman to a $28M guaranteed contract. This unit last year was a total mess pre- and post-snap, so even if it takes bit of time to gel, this is a sure-fire upgrade from 2024. Left tackle is also a position to note with LT Braxton Jones (broken ankle) unlikely to be ready for the start of training camp. He's been an average starter before this injury, so 2nd-round rookie swing tackle Ozzy Trapilo and developmental OT Kiran Amegadjie are in the mix if there's a setback or a decrease in play due to injury. On top of the transactions, this unit was going to play better just because Caleb Williams is going into year two (meaning better pre-snap coordination) and there's a new OL coach. I'd be stunned if this team was 2nd-worst in false starts again, for example.
Patriots: This 2024 offense created a league-worst 0.8 yards before contact on RB carries, and their quick pressure rate on standard dropbacks (32%) was the 2nd worst. Enter 4th-overall LT Will Campbell and age-34 RT Morgan Moses. Both have downside but also give them paths to average tackle play if they're lucky. Campbell wasn't my favorite prospect if I'm being honest, but he's a very good athlete and is smart. The interior remains volatile, but there are two new centers to work with. Veteran castaway C Garrett Bradbury only signed a $3.8M guaranteed contract, so he's competing with 3rd-round rookie C Jared Wilson from Georgia. Wilson is a tank and one of the most athletic center prospects in recent classes. In general, this unit feels like an upgrade but is far from a finished product. It'll be helpful if Drake Maye takes a big mental leap in his second season because this was a team that had issues sorting things out pre-snap more than most. They were 3rd-worst in unblocked pressures as evidence.
Titans: Last year's team was 31st in yards before contact on RB carries, and they lost the most yards per game to false starts. Yikes. At least the Titans will have 3 new starters for legendary OL coach Bill Callahan to work with. The big move was signing LT Dan Moore to a $50M guaranteed contract. He's closer to average than being good, but relative to Tennessee's tackle play last year? Yeah, upgraded. Moore's addition moves 2024 7th-overall OT JC Latham to his college side at RT. That feels like a good thing. They also added RG Kevin Zeitler to a $8.7M guaranteed contract, giving the Titans one of the better interior groups in the NFL with LG Peter Skoronski and C Lloyd Cushenberry both returning. This isn't a great blocking team at TE, WR, and RB, but it's easier to feel comfortable across the entire OL now.
Seahawks: Seattle was a disaster at offensive line last year. They were 30th in yards before contact on RB carries last year, and 28th in quick pressure rate on standard dropbacks. They were also 3rd worst in false starts and 5th worst in offensive holdings. Sheesh!!! The coaching decisions were a part of the issue, so OC Klint Kubiak is a real upgrade for the unit, but they also have better talent this season. 18th overall pick Grey Zabel is slated to start at LG and has five-position flexibility if there's another injury-filled season in the Pacific Northwest. RT Abe Lucas only played 7 games last year but is healthy now and flashed before his knee acted up. They might've found a real value at C with 2023 5th-rounder Olu Oluwatimi, who started 8 games down the stretch. And finally, 2024 3rd-round RG Christian Haynes is penciled in to start at a position that the Seahawks were forced to rotate between 3 players. There's still a lot of development needed across these spots, but this team is making some strides at the very least.
Saints: This is a team where one move could mean multiple upgrades. Not only is 9th-overall pick LT Kevin Banks a quality prospect by himself, but his selection also moves Taliese Fuaga to back to RT where he played in college at Oregon State. Doing that also moves Trevor Penning from RT to LG, where he'll be left on fewer islands. Penning's biggest issues are the extracurriculars, but being sandwiched between Banks and C Erik McCoy is going to make his job so much easier. Throw in RG Cesar Ruiz and we're talking about a starting five entirely filled with top-48 overall draft picks. This is a sneaky very good room if McCoy can play more than the 7 games he suited up for last year with various injuries. The Saints had the 4th-most unblocked pressures last year, partially because they were using backup centers for most of the season.
Jets: 6th-overall pick RT Armand Membou should be an upgrade as an athletic outlier, and 2024 1st-round LT Olu Fashanu is expected to take a 2nd-year leap as the locked-in starter. The interior OL fully returns with young talent, too. If things click, this could be a borderline top-5 unit.
Packers: This is an underrated good unit. They had the 2nd-best quick pressure rate allowed on standard dropbacks and have quality depth. Both quality OTs return, with 2024 1st-rounder Jordan Morgan and 2nd-round rookie Anthony Belton as reserves with flexibility. The Packers plan to move stud Elgton Jenkins from LG to C, which is an upgrade over last year's center. The signed former Niner OG Aaron Banks to a $27M guaranteed contract to start at LG, leaving their RG in place. On top of that, coach Mike LaFleur coaches them up well.
Dolphins: This was an unwatchable unit in 2024, so almost any move should be viewed as a win. Their biggest move is swapping out LT Terron Armstead (retired) for 2024 2nd-rounder Patrick Paul, who barely played but is a massive, above-average athlete with 44 collegiate starts. He might be better than people realize. Paul was 34th on my 2024 Big Board at the very least. The Dolphins also added RG Jonah Savaiinaea in the 2nd round, my 50th overall player. He's switching from RT to RG, which fits his size better. He had surprising straight-line speed for a brick house. Miami's 3rd new starter will be 28-year-old veteran James Daniels, who signed a $10.8M guaranteed contract. It's asking too much for this unit to be even league average with this many moving parts, but they should be far better than they were last year. Once again, that's an easy bar to clear. They had the most offensive holdings per game and essentially gave up running the ball halfway through the year.
Jaguars: For most of the year, Trevor Lawrence felt unsettled behind a shaky offensive line. While still poor on paper, the Jaguars should be a bit better up front. They've settled on LT Walker Little at that spot after making him earn it over the past couple of years, and 2023 1st-round RT Anton Harrison is now going into year 3. That's solid enough. On the interior, there are 2 new starters. Former Raven OG Patrick Mekari signed a $20M guaranteed contract, and Robert Hainsey was new HC Liam Coen's backup center with the Buccaneers, but he's expected to start in Jacksonville after signing for $13M guaranteed. In addition to the new talent, Coen's coaching will elevate the entire unit. Last year's Bucs OL was one of the very best units in physicality and synchronicity. Those are coaching characteristics.
Buccaneers: Last year's unit was teach tape. They had the lowest quick pressure rate on standard dropbacks in the NFL, and their starting five linemen each played at least 905 snaps. Insanely lucky. Well, that's over before this season has even started, even though all five starters return ... when healthy. All Pro LT Tristan Wirfs (knee) underwent surgery halfway through the offseason and is expected to miss at least September, if not more. This can't be overstated. Teams without high-end tackles lose a lot of value per play, and that could be especially true here. Wirfs' backup is OT Charlie Heck, who only signed on for $400k guaranteed this offseason. Baker Mayfield has also ran into problems holding onto the ball in the normal dropback game previously. And the Bucs have another new offensive coordinator this year. A dropoff in September stats should be expected.
Lions: The retirement of All Pro C Frank Ragnow was unexpected by outsiders, but the Lions internally knew about this when they selected Georgia OG Tate Ratledge in Round 2. He's an athletic marvel coming from a pro-styled offense, but he also was a guard in college, not a center. This is a move up levels and to a new position, which is probably asking for too much in 2025. Expect a downgrade there and at OG, where Kevin Zeitler left. He'll be replaced by 2024 6th-rounder Christian Mahogany. That lowly draft capital is a red flag, but he at least played down the stretch last year and was ranked as my 89th overall player in last year's draft. Both Ratledge and Mahogany came from gap-based college offenses, and both are athletes with a mean streak. On paper, this is the worst the Detroit interior has looked in a few years, but I can actually see this working at a fine-enough level. Jared Goff and this new OC might just have to game plan around this interior early on, rather than through it. Last year's unit was 4th in yards before contact on RB carries.
49ers: The only move among starters was losing LG Aaron Banks and signing Ben Bartch to a $1M guaranteed contract. Major downgrade potential. LT Trent Williams only played 10 games last year, so we'll see how he does in his age-37 season, but there's absolutely no depth on this team with backup LTs Jaylon Moore and Charlie Heck both gone. There are ways this unit goes very sideways.
Rams: We'll see about LT Alaric Jackson, who is on NFI with blood clots, but it doesn't sound great right now. He played most of the year, and now his backup is veteran castaway D.J. Humphries ($1.3M guaranteed). There's also a competition at center between two players who aren't very good.
Bills: It's highly unlikely that all five starters play 930+ snaps again.
Broncos: It's highly unlikely that all five starters play 822+ snaps again.
Chiefs: Kansas City had fantastic interior OL play last year with LG Joe Thuney (traded), C Creed Humphries, and RG Trey Smith, but the tackle play was so disastrous that it almost didn't matter. The Chiefs were worst in quick pressure rate on standard dropbacks and had the 2nd-most offensive holdings per game. There were also illegal formations and false start issues, putting Patrick Mahomes into consistently bad 3rd-down situations. RT Juwaan Taylor was the main infraction culprit, losing the 3rd-most yards to penalties of any offensive linemen. He simply has to play better at the snap. He's good once he's engaged. The real wild card is 1st-round LT Josh Simmons, who only fell to 31st overall because of a torn patella. That's a very serious injury, but Simmons was out there without a brace or sleeve during the first week of training camp. He would've been a top-10 pick without the injury, so if he's good to go, the Chiefs could quickly climb up OL rankings because LT was a massive hole on the roster. Meanwhile, the loss of Thuney means there's a competition at LG.
Texans: This operation was a catastrophe pre-snap. The Texans had 14 more unblocked pressures than the 2nd-worst offense, and LT Laremy Tunsil led the NFL with 15 pre-snap infractions, too. Nobody could sort anything out, and there was no continuity throughout the 2024 season. They had 4 different LTs, 6 different LGs, 2 different Cs, 3 different RGs, and 3 different RTs. Yikes. Trading away Tunsil sets this team back, but the new coaching staff and CJ Stroud having more freedom at the line of scrimmage is likely to offset that. The Texans are also desperately trying to find better depth right now. The LT competition is between Cam Robinson ($10.7M guaranteed) and 2nd-rounder Aireontae Ersery, who is a huge 3-year starter from Minnesota. The LG competition is between former 2nd-rounder Juice Skruggs and new veteran Laken Tomlinson ($2.5M guaranteed). C Jarrett Patterson out-played Skruggs last year and is likely the starter. It looks like versatile Tytus Howard is sliding back to RG, instead of tackle, because they have 2024 2nd-round RT Blake Fischer with veteran giant RT Trent Brown behind him. There is not a locked-in above average player on the team, but they do go two deep and should field something that was better than 2024. My god was it bad.
Commanders: Trading for LT Laremy Tunsil is a boom-bust transaction long term, but it's undoubtably an upgrade this year, even if he had the most penalties per game among any offensive linemen because he was a pre-snap nightmare. When he's blocking, Tunsil is still in the top-5 conversation. He'll be bookended by 1st-round OT Josh Conerly, who will move from LT to RT. He needs to get stronger and make a positional change going from Oregon to the NFC East, but Conerly is smart and is highly athletic. He competes with incumbent RT Andrew Wylie. At the same time, the interior will have new faces. Last year's LT Brandon Coleman is moving to LG, and RG Sam Cosmi tore his ACL in the NFL Playoffs and won't be ready for a chunk of the season most likely.
Cowboys: This is not the same elite OL of previous seasons. They were 29th in yards before contact on RB carries last year, for example. 2024 1st-round LT Tyler Guyton struggled as a rookie, and 12th-overall rookie OG Tyler Booker is literally replacing Hall of Famer Zach Martin, who played half of last year. Booker's lack of athleticism had me concerned, but he's wide as a bus at the very least. The other 3 starters return. Most of the volatility is with Guyton because Dak Prescott forced too many throws into traffic while facing pressure last year. That can't happen again.
Colts: Indianapolis has some fragility up front after finishing 3rd in yards before contact on RB carries last season. Their RT Braden Smith is a good player but missed the final part of the year with "Religious Scrupulosity", a type of OCD. He's practicing and seems to be in a good space now after treatment, but the Colts did make him restructure his contract. Indianapolis also is replacing C Ryan Kelly ($9.2M guaranteed) with Tanor Bortolini and RG Will Fries ($44M guaranteed) with Matt Goncalves, who actually played tackle last season. Inexperience at center is always something to note, and Bortolini only has 5 career starts.
Chargers: Last year's unit was 6th-worst in quick pressure rate on standard dropbacks. It was the interior at fault, which explains the moves. The plan is moving 2022 1st-rounder Zion Johnson from LG to C. Who knows how that'll go? That means Bradley Bozeman kicks out to guard with veteran C Andre James backing them up. The actual upgrade is with RG Mekhi Becton, who broke out with elite coaching on the Eagles. He's more of a power run blocker than well-rounded asset, but the bar for an upgrade is fairly low.
Browns: 2023 4th-round sleeper Dawand Jones is moving from RT to LT and is now expected to start. He's a true giant with upside, especially now that he's 20 pounds leaner. The Browns had 5 players take snaps at LT last year, so some stability there would be great. The rest of the starters are all back. That's LG Joel Bitonio, C Ethan Pocic, RG Wyatt Teller, and RT Jack Conklin. They collectively had their worst season last year after each battling different injuries previously. The Browns were 4th-worst in quick pressure rate on standard dropbacks last year. That most likely improves.
Giants: The entire offensive line returns, but the real question is how healthy will All Pro LT Andrew Thomas be after having surgery on his foot last year? He at least threw out the first pitch at a Yankees game, pushing off that foot on the rubber. When healthy, the Giants OL is totally fine. Without him, there's a ripple effect, forcing Evan Neal to play instead of having Jermaine Eluemunor out at RT. According to SIS, the Giants were 12th in blown block rate through Week 6 when Thomas was healthy vs. 31st from Week 7 on without him.