Comparing Dynasty Rookie ADP Vs Best Ball ADP
The NFL Draft is just behind us and while Best Ball Mania IV kicks off, so do the many dynasty rookie drafts where people have been eagerly stashing picks ready for this draft class. With both sets of ADP slowly settling in, let’s take a look at how Sleeper’s rookie ADP (0.5 PPR single QB) compares with that of Best Ball Mania IV.
Bijan Robinson - 1.01 vs 8.0
The unquestioned 1.01 of all rookie formats and is now the RB2 in Best Ball Mania. The argument can be made that he could be the RB1 overall.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 1.02 vs 41.2
The Lions shocked everyone by selecting Gibbs at the 1.12 and while that draft capital is shocking, it’s noteworthy for good reasons too. With D’Andre Swift no longer in Detroit, Gibbs has skyrocketed up draft boards ahead of all rookie wide receivers in rookie drafts and up to 41.2 in BBM, making him the RB15 and primed for immediate impact.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 1.03 vs 59.8
The Seahawks are deep at wide receiver, but it hasn’t stopped Smith-Njigba from leap-frogging Tyler Lockett to be Seattle’s WR2 in ADP. With Jordan Addison seeing a clearer path to an immediate impact it’s a little surprising to see Smith-Njigba still the WR1 in both rookie drafts and BBM.
Quentin Johnston - 1.04 vs 95.9
Rookie drafts have the new Chargers receiver, Quentin Johnston, being selected as the WR2, but on Underdog he’s the WR3 and fifth rookie off the board. Johnston’s big play ability is appealing in this Chargers offense, but Best Ball drafters are being slightly cautious whilst Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are still in L.A.
Jordan Addison - 1.05 vs 83.2
The clear WR2 in Minnesota is the WR43 in Best Ball drafts and the Rookie WR2. Johnston was widely mocked ahead of Addison for much of the build-up to the draft, but best ball drafters now have more confidence in Addison than Johnston for year one.
Zach Charbonnet - 1.06 vs 100.9
Charbonnet’s arrival in Seattle muddies the backfield duties somewhat, and his ceiling appears capped in the immediate future but in both formats Charbonnet is the Rookie RB3.
Zay Flowers - 1.07 vs 101.4
Rookie WR4 in both dynasty and best ball formats, the outlook for Flowers is better than if he had landed with the Ravens in a Greg Roman offense. Best Ball drafters seem unsure how to price this Ravens offense, which breeds opportunity for those ready to invest. It wouldn’t take a lot to pay off as WR57 overall.
Bryce Young - 1.08 vs 144.5
The 1.01 in NFL drafts is the QB1 in single QB ADP, but on Underdog he’s the Rookie QB2, with drafters less optimistic about his immediate returns thanks to the lack of star power in Carolina.
CJ Stroud - 1.09 vs 159.1
Dynasty drafters have more long-term faith in Stroud than best ball drafters have short-term faith. Stroud is the Rookie QB3 on Underdog and QB24 overall. If Stroud shows off some of the rushing upsides he displayed against Georgia, this could look like a bargain in the months to come.
Anthony Richardson - 1.10 vs 102.1
Best Ball drafters are fully aware of the impact of a dual-threat quarterback and with the top tier of quarterbacks being pushed even higher this year, drafters are keen to catch the 2023 version of a late-round quarterback. In dynasty, there is still some hesitation around Richardson, with some drafters believing his future is less secure than Young or Stroud. At QB14 on Underdog, it's easy to build around those doubts.
Zach Evans - 1.11 vs 204.1
Rookie ADP has been a little slow to catch up to Zach Evans's fall from grace, with him selected with the 215th overall pick of the draft. Evans had been some people's RB3 pre-draft and the lack of competition outside of Cam Akers is keeping some people optimistic and propping him up as Rookie RB4. Meanwhile, on Underdog, Evans is the RB61 and is seen as a late-round dart throw only.
Jalin Hyatt - 1.12 vs 135.2
The Giants might not have been the dream landing spot for a deep threat like Hyatt, but with the Giants depleted of talent Hyatt has a fair chance for an immediate impact and as such is the WR5 in both dynasty ADP and Underdog.
Michael Mayer - 2.01 vs 165.3
Mayer is the TE1 in dynasty but is being drafted as the Rookie TE2 on Underdog, where despite the good landing spot he is the TE31. Rookie tight ends largely fail to deliver, so it’s fair to see why Mayer is being faded, or at least reserved for three tight-end builds.
Devon Achane - 2.02 vs 119.5
Miami’s backfield is cluttered but it hasn’t stopped Best Ball drafters pushing Achane up to the RB39 overall and Rookie RB4. Achane’s breakaway speed may help him have more of an impact in Best Ball and his boom-or-bust nature may be easier to handle than in managed leagues, where he’s the RB5.
Kayshon Boutte - 2.03 vs 215.2
In another instance where rookie ADP has been slow to catch up, Kayshon Boutte is the Rookie WR6 but on Underdog he is largely undrafted, with Best Ball drafters noting the Round 6 draft capital. Boutte was once projected to be a top-tier talent, so it’s possible that dynasty managers are still attached to that potential.
Tyjae Spears - 2.04 vs 165.8
The Rookie RB5 in dynasty ADP is the seventh rookie running back on Underdog, with drafters less optimistic about his immediate returns as long as Derrick Henry is on the team.
Josh Downs - 2.05 vs 175.5
In dynasty leagues Downs goes at WR7, slightly ahead of his WR8 ranking on Underdog. Downs shouldn’t face too much target competition in Indianapolis, but it’s widely assumed the Colts will be a run-first offense.
Dalton Kincaid - 2.06 vs 135.7
Best Ball drafters are higher on Kincaid than dynasty ADP is, with Kincaid the Rookie TE1 on Underdog, compared to TE2 on Sleeper. Kincaid is currently being drafted almost a full round ahead of Dawson Knox on Underdog.
Kendre Miller - 2.07 vs 150.9
Rookie RB6 in both dynasty and Best Ball. If Alvin Kamara is suspended to start the year, Miller will form a timeshare with Jamaal Williams.
Sean Tucker - 2.08 vs 214.8
Undrafted to the surprise of some, Tucker is barely in consideration for Best Ball as the RB68 overall. In dynasty, some are still clinging to pre-draft hopes.
Tank Bigsby - 2.09 vs 165.8
Rookie RB8 in both dynasty formats and Best Ball, Bigsby has a reasonable shot at seeing touches immediately behind Travis Etienne.
Israel Abanikanda - 2.10 vs 207.7
The Jets selected Abanikanda to be part of their running back room and killed the hopes of some Abanikanda fans. RB11 on Underdog and unlikely to be anything more than a deep sleeper if Breece Hall’s recovery isn’t on track.
Roschon Johnson - 2.11 vs 141.8
In dynasty formats, Johnson is the Rookie RB10 but on Underdog drafters are more optimistic about him, being selected as the RB5 among rookies.
Rashee Rice - 2.12 vs 161.9
Any player landing in Kansas City has some appeal for Best Ball and Rashee Rice is the WR7, a little ahead of his WR8 ranking in rookie ADP.
DeWayne McBride - 3.01 vs 214.3
Largely undrafted on Underdog, McBride might see a boost if Dalvin Cook is moved on.
Will Levis - 3.02 vs 214.4
QB33 in Best Ball and QB4 among rookies in both formats.
Kenny McIntosh - 3.03 vs 216
Tank Dell - 3.04 vs 211
Jonathan Mingo - 3.05 vs 154.5
Mingo’s prospect profile wasn’t perfect, but Best Ball drafters have enough faith that someone has to catch the ball in Carolina that Mingo is the Rookie WR6 as opposed to the rookie WR10 on Sleeper.
Cedric Tillman - 3.06 vs 209.6
Marvin Mims - 3.07 vs 191.5
Chase Brown - 3.08 vs 175
A Zero RB type target that could see a huge jump if Joe Mixon is suspended, Rookie RB9 on Underdog compared to RB14 on Sleeper.