Fantasy Usage Model - Week 10 NFL Recap

Nov 15th 2022

Hayden Winks

Posted every Tuesday, The Fantasy Usage Model combines my expected fantasy points model with his film notes to recap the previous week's game. An explanation of this is here, but it basically turns targets, carries, air yards, goal line touches, and other variables into expected fantasy points.

Fantasy Usage Model - Week 10 Recap

Data only from Weeks 7-10. You can filter by team, position, or stat, and you can remove columns. Best viewed on desktop.

Week 11 Regression Candidates

  • RB (Positive Regression) - David Montgomery (-2.7 half PPR over expected), Jerick McKinnon (-1.9), Saquon Barkley (-1.8).

  • RB (Negative Regression) - Tony Pollard (+9.1), Joe Mixon (+6.5), Aaron Jones (+6.2), Nick Chubb (+5.7), Alvin Kamara (+5.2).

  • WR (Positive Regression) - Courtland Sutton (-4.8), Diontae Johnson (-4.7), Deebo Samuel (-3.8), Mike Evans (-3.6), Chris Godwin (-3.0), Allen Robinson (-2.4), Michael Pittman (-2.2).

  • WR (Negative Regression) - Christian Watson (+18.1), A.J. Brown (+8.1), Jaylen Waddle (+6.1), Darius Slayton (+6.0), Tyler Boyd (+5.7), Amari Cooper (5.0), CeeDee Lamb (+4.9), JuJu Smith-Schuster (+4.3), Tyler Lockett (+4.0).

  • TE (Positive Regression) - Gerald Everett (-5.6), Kyle Pitts (-3.4 I'm tired), Pat Freiermuth (-1.9).

  • TE (Negative Regression) - Cole Kmet (+6.1), Juwan Johnson (+4.5).

RB Situational Usage

All per game numbers from Weeks 7-10. "Dream Opps" are inside the 5-yard line opportunities plus "passing game targets", which are targets in obvious passing downs like the 2-minute warning, while trailing big, or on 3rd-and-long.

WR & TE Situational Usage

4.0 targets per game and 3 games this season to qualify. "EPA" is an efficiency stat. "CPOE" is completion percentage over expected. "TDOE" is touchdowns over expected. "aDOT" is average depth of target. "Deep Perc" is percentage of targets traveling 15+ yards downfield. "Deep Catch Rate" is how often those deep targets are caught. "Sideline Perc" is percentage of targets near the sideline, where targets are less valuable.