Fantasy Usage Model - Week 12 NFL Recap

Nov 29th 2022

Hayden Winks

Posted every Tuesday, The Fantasy Usage Model combines my expected fantasy points model with his film notes to recap the previous week's game. An explanation of this is here, but it basically turns targets, carries, air yards, goal line touches, and other variables into expected fantasy points.

Fantasy Usage Model - Week 12 Recap

Data only from Weeks 9-12. You can filter by team, position, or stat, and you can remove columns. Best viewed on desktop.

Week 12 Regression Candidates

  • RB (Positive Regression) - Gus Edwards (-4.4 half PPR over expected), Dalvin Cook (-4.1), D'Andre Swift (-3.8), Austin Ekeler (-3.6), Dameon Pierce (-3.6), Rhamondre Stevenson (-3.1)

  • RB (Negative Regression) - Tony Pollard (+4.9), Ezekiel Elliot (+4.6), Samaje Perine (+4.6), Raheem Mostert (+3.2)

  • WR (Positive Regression) - Mike Evans (-4.8), Marquise Brown (-3.3), DK Metcalf (-2.3), Deebo Samuel (-2.1), Allen Lazard (-1.7)

  • WR (Negative Regression) - Christian Watson (+11.5), Davante Adams (+6.1), Tyler Lockett (+6.1), DeAndre Carter (+4.4), Darius Slayton (+4.2), Tee Higgins (+4.1), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+3.8), George Pickens (+3.6)

  • TE (Positive Regression) - Pat Freiermuth (-3.1), T.J. Hockenson (-3.1), Mark Andrews (-2.8)

  • TE (Negative Regression) - Cole Kmet (+4.2), Juwan Johnson (+3.3), Hunter Henry (+3.2)

RB Situational Usage

All per game numbers from Weeks 9-12. "Dream Opps" are inside the 5-yard line opportunities plus "passing game targets", which are targets in obvious passing downs like the 2-minute warning, while trailing big, or on 3rd-and-long.

WR & TE Situational Usage

4.0 targets per game and 5 games this season to qualify. "EPA" is an efficiency stat. "CPOE" is completion percentage over expected. "TDOE" is touchdowns over expected. "aDOT" is average depth of target. "Deep Perc" is percentage of targets traveling 15+ yards downfield. "Deep Catch Rate" is how often those deep targets are caught. "Sideline Perc" is percentage of targets near the sideline, where targets are less valuable.