Posted every Tuesday, The Fantasy Usage Model combines my expected fantasy points model with his film notes to recap the previous week's game. An explanation of this is here, but it basically turns targets, carries, air yards, goal line touches, and other variables into expected fantasy points.

Fantasy Usage Model - Week 13 Recap

Data only from Weeks 10-13. You can filter by team, position, or stat, and you can remove columns. Best viewed on desktop.

Week 14 Regression Candidates

• RB (Positive Regression) - Austin Ekeler (-3.9 half PPR over expected), Alvin Kamara (-3.7), Dameon Pierce (-3.6), Christian McCaffrey (-3.1), D'Andre Swift (-3.0)

• RB (Negative Regression) - Tony Pollard (+6.9), Josh Jacobs (+6.4), Ezekiel Elliott (+3.5), A.J. Dillon (+3.5)

• WR (Positive Regression) - Corey Davis (-4.2), Marquise Brown (-3.3), Deebo Samuel (-3.0), Nico Collins (-2.8)

• WR (Negative Regression) - Christian Watson (+11.9), Davante Adams (+7.7), Tyler Lockett (+5.4), Tee Higgins (+5.2), Darius Slayton (+3.7)

• TE (Positive Regression) - T.J. Hockenson (-3.1), Mark Andrews (-2.1), Pat Freiermuth (-1.8), Dalton Schultz (-1.6)

• TE (Negative Regression) - Cole Kmet (+2.6), Juwan Johnson (+1.4)

RB Situational Usage

All per game numbers from Weeks 10-13. "Dream Opps" are inside the 5-yard line opportunities plus "passing game targets", which are targets in obvious passing downs like the 2-minute warning, while trailing big, or on 3rd-and-long.

WR & TE Situational Usage

4.0 targets per game and 5 games this season to qualify. "EPA" is an efficiency stat. "CPOE" is completion percentage over expected. "TDOE" is touchdowns over expected. "aDOT" is average depth of target. "Deep Perc" is percentage of targets traveling 15+ yards downfield. "Deep Catch Rate" is how often those deep targets are caught. "Sideline Perc" is percentage of targets near the sideline, where targets are less valuable.