Fantasy Usage Model - Week 14 NFL Recap

Dec 13th 2022

Hayden Winks

Posted every Tuesday, The Fantasy Usage Model combines my expected fantasy points model with his film notes to recap the previous week's game. An explanation of this is here, but it basically turns targets, carries, air yards, goal line touches, and other variables into expected fantasy points.

Fantasy Usage Model - Week 14 Recap

Data only from Weeks 11-14. You can filter by team, position, or stat, and you can remove columns. Best viewed on desktop.

Week 15 Regression Candidates

  • RB (Positive Regression) - D'Onta Foreman (-6.2 half PPR over expected), Travis Etienne (-5.5), Dalvin Cook (-4.6), Michael Carter (-4.4), Alvin Kamara (-4.4), Jonathan Taylor (-4.0).

  • RB (Negative Regression) - Pierre Strong (+9.0), JK Dobbins (+8.6), Tony Pollard (+7.4), Josh Jacobs (+6.5), Miles Sanders (+6.1), A.J. Dillon (+4.8).

  • WR (Positive Regression) - Marquise Brown (-5.3), Mike Evans (-3.7), Nico Collins (-3.6), Christian Kirk (-2.7), Jaylen Waddle (-2.5).

  • WR (Negative Regression) - Mike Williams (+12.3), Christian Watson (+9.9), Jerry Jeudy (+8.9), D.J. Chark (+4.4), Brandon Aiyuk (+3.1), Gabe Davis (-1.3).

  • TE (Positive Regression) - Mark Andrews (-3.0).

  • TE (Negative Regression) - Evan Engram (+5.0), Austin Hooper (+2.2).

RB Situational Usage

All per game numbers from Weeks 11-14. "Dream Opps" are inside the 5-yard line opportunities plus "passing game targets", which are targets in obvious passing downs like the 2-minute warning, while trailing big, or on 3rd-and-long.

WR & TE Situational Usage

4.0 targets per game and 5 games this season to qualify. "EPA" is an efficiency stat. "CPOE" is completion percentage over expected. "TDOE" is touchdowns over expected. "aDOT" is average depth of target. "Deep Perc" is percentage of targets traveling 15+ yards downfield. "Deep Catch Rate" is how often those deep targets are caught. "Sideline Perc" is percentage of targets near the sideline, where targets are less valuable.