Fantasy Usage Model - Week 15 NFL Recap

Dec 20th 2022

Hayden Winks

Posted every Tuesday, The Fantasy Usage Model combines my expected fantasy points model with his film notes to recap the previous week's game. An explanation of this is here, but it basically turns targets, carries, air yards, goal line touches, and other variables into expected fantasy points.

Fantasy Usage Model - Week 15 Recap

Data only from Weeks 12-15. You can filter by team, position, or stat, and you can remove columns. Best viewed on desktop.

Week 16 Regression Candidates

  • RB (Positive Regression) - D'Onta Foreman (-7.9 half PPR over expected), D'Andre Swift (-4.9), Travis Etienne (-4.7), Alvin Kamara (-4.3), Joe Mixon (-4.3), Jamaal Williams (-4.1), Zack Moss (-3.8), Cordarrelle Patterson (-3.6)

  • RB (Negative Regression) - A.J. Dillon (+7.1), JK Dobbins (+6.9), Josh Jacobs (+5.9), Jerick McKinnon (+5.7), Miles Sanders (+5.4), Brian Robinson (+3.7), David Montgomery (+3.5)

  • WR (Positive Regression) - Marquise Brown (-5.3), Nico Collins (-5.2), Amari Cooper (-3.6), Mike Evans (-3.3), Curtis Samuel (-2.7), Drake London (-2.6), Christian Kirk (-2.3), Gabe Davis (-1.1)

  • WR (Negative Regression) - Jerry Jeudy (+7.0), A.J. Brown (+6.2), Christian Watson (+6.0), Rashid Shaheed (+5.9), Mike Williams (+5.1), Zay Jones (+3.6), DeVonta Smith (+3.3), D.J. Chark (+3.3)

  • TE (Positive Regression) - Mark Andrews (-3.8), David Njoku (-2.1).

  • TE (Negative Regression) - Darren Waller (+7.6), Juwan Johnson (+3.5), Evan Engram (+3.3), C.J. Uzomah (+3.2)

RB Situational Usage

All per game numbers from Weeks 12-15. "Dream Opps" are inside the 5-yard line opportunities plus "passing game targets", which are targets in obvious passing downs like the 2-minute warning, while trailing big, or on 3rd-and-long.

WR & TE Situational Usage

4.0 targets per game and 5 games this season to qualify. "EPA" is an efficiency stat. "CPOE" is completion percentage over expected. "TDOE" is touchdowns over expected. "aDOT" is average depth of target. "Deep Perc" is percentage of targets traveling 15+ yards downfield. "Deep Catch Rate" is how often those deep targets are caught. "Sideline Perc" is percentage of targets near the sideline, where targets are less valuable.