Grading The Biggest NFL Free Agency Moves

21 hours agoHayden Winks

These are just quick thoughts after posting the longer video versions on YouTube and whatever social media platform is trending. To make them work for social, I guess they need to come with a letter grade, too.

I'm starting with QB, WR, RB, TE, OL. I'll get to DEF later on.

Dolphins Sign QB Malik Willis for $22.5M/Year (Grade: B-)

This is far from the once-rumored $30M+. It's essentially a 2-year, $45M deal with a team option afterwards. That's a rightful step up from Justin Fields' contract last year, yet below Sam Darnold's Seahawks deal. Fair. Willis is a small sample king in ways Fields never was. The ex-Packer was 1st in EPA per dropback, 1st in completion percentage over expected, and 11th in success rate over the past three years. It was a lot of vertical-based throws with the bonus of being fantastic in the zone read and scramble department. If he hits, there is league-average starter upside for bridge QB money. The hard part will be that he has just this year to figure it out. The 2027 NFL Draft could be littered with QB talent up top, and the rest of the Dolphins' roster is in such peril due to the $90M+ dead money already on the Miami books for this season. Willis' upside makes them at least interesting in their very clear rebuild. It's also a good sign that the GM and HC who spent time with Willis in Green Bay wanted him.

Falcons Sign QB Tua Tagovailoa for $1M (Grade: A-)

The Dolphins take $99M on the chin, while the offsetting language in his deal means the Falcons get him for the veteran minimum. That's a $10M discount from the other backup QB contracts out there, so it's impossible to argue with this contract. Impossible! On top of that, Tagavailoa puts real pressure on Michael Penix as a starter, plus gives them an insurance policy for September and beyond if Penix's 3rd return from an ACL tear doesn't go as expected. It caught my eye throughout the offseason that coach Kevin Stefanski never fully committed to Penix at any point. He then signs a QB who is a better stylistic fit for his quick-hitting offense on day one of free agency. I'd guess the Falcons start both in 2026, neither being the QB to lift them out of this postseason drought. Tua's body has just collapsed over the year, and I don't think he'll ever push the ball beyond the sticks with any consistency.

Cardinals Sign QB Gardner Minshew for $6M (Grade: D)

It's just a one-year deal and a major upgrade to last year's contract of $1M. Why? Unsure. This is almost identical to Jacoby Brissett's current deal, but reports quickly surfaced that it'll be Brissett as the starter with Minshew as the backup. Yes, in 2026. I don't get moving on from Kyler Murray for this to be the answer. Not even Malik Willis? Really? They could end up being the Ty Simpson team in Round 2, but this organization looks as hopeless for 2026 as anyone.

49ers Sign WR Mike Evans for $16M (Grade: A)

The initial report were "up to" figures, but the real money comes in a lot more team friendly. It's essentially a 1-year, $16M contract with team options afterwards. That plays into the year-by-year nature of Evans at his age-33 season. Evans isn't running by people quite as often (his YAC per catch dropped from 3.5 to 1.1 last year), but he runs the full route tree before dunking on people in the end zone. The fit couldn't be more ideal. Kyle Shanahan is the X-receiver GOAT coach, dating back to Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Pierre Garcon, and most recently Brandon Aiyuk before he joined F1. The Niners can't trot out Ricky Pearsall as their WR1 and be Super Bowl contenders. This should look good until the electrical substation ends our fun. Hopefully Evans can buy enough time for George Kittle to regain his legs.

Colts Re-Sign WR Alec Pierce for $29M/year (Grade: C+)

The leader in yards per target (11.9) over the last two years is adding more routes to his tree (particularly the dig route), but Pierce isn't the well-rounded WR that typically gets paid this way. He's only behind 4 WRs in total guarantees, next to Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Garrett Wilson. He's definitely closer to that Tee Higgins or Terry McLaurin range in terms of role and theoretical upside. This money is a cap-inflated version of those deals, so the move in isolation isn't quite as crazy as it seemed on the surface.

How we got here was more noteworthy. The Colts could've tagged Pierce for $27M if they hadn't transition tagged Daniel Jones for $38M, and I probably would've played hard ball with DJ instead of Pierce, who fits basically everyone's offense. Now the Colts will have that $38M tag set as a baseline for a long-term extension. The Michael Pittman trade opened up the necessary $24M to fit both deals for the time being, but that's a real loss. It's hard to say the Colts future is as bright as what the 2025 first 10 weeks showed. That's a hard bar to clear to be fair.

Steelers Trade for WR Michael Pittman, Extended for $19M/year (Grade: B)

The Colts were probably going to release him to save the $24M they saved by trading him, so getting Day 3 pick swaps is a net win for them. The Steelers don't get credit for this year's deal, but they did pull off a rarity with the extension: Pittman's extended APY of $19M is actually less than the contract they inherited, despite the salary cap going way up. That's in line with the Wan'Dale Robinson bag, and Pittman is a better player. He also should make Aaron Rodgers happy (if that was their goal), as an underneath and intermediate option who can complement the vertical nature of DK Metcalf's game. Pittsburgh upgraded their WR2 situation was a must this offseason. Mission accomplished.

Titans Sign WR Wan'Dale Robinson to $19.5M/Year (Grade: C+)

That's $38M guaranteed, so essentially a 2-year deal. On the surface, the Titans had the 2nd-most money to spend and didn't have enough weapons for Cam Ward. The money short-term isn't going to matter in this stage of the rebuild, but the opportunity cost is real. This is more than Michael Pittman ($19M/yr), Rashid Shaheed ($17M), and a lot more than Jalen Nailor ($12M). Robinson isn't the intermediate and vertical threat that they are, which are the parts of Ward's game worth building around. On top of that, Robinson does play the same role as 2025 4th-round explosion Chimere Dike, and it doesn't help solve the massive holes at X and Z receiver. This elevates the floor of the Titans in 2026, but the ceiling will be found when they make a move to address their No. 32 deep catch rate.

Raiders Sign WR Jalen Nailor for $12M/Year (Grade: B-)

This is essentially a 2-year, $23M contract with a 3rd-year team option. Nailor is a tad better than that to me. He has some wiggle underneath and can work downfield for a slot receiver. His size keeps his upside in check, but it wouldn't be a surprise to have Nailor compete for No. 3 targets. What's harder to square is the fit with the rest of the depth chart. The Raiders "WR1" is a slot TE in Brock Bowers. Their actual WR depth chart is filled with slot or Z receiver types. Nobody at X. Nailor is essentially admitting that power slot Jack Bech isn't on track as a 2025 2nd-round pick. That's a tough pill to swallow.

Chiefs Sign Kenneth Walker for $14M/Year (Grade: A-)

This is only a 2-year deal and is equivalent to the James Cook deal in RB terms, but its' only Isaiah Likely or Jalen Nailor money compared to other skill guys. I'd rather have Walker, who played behind bad OLs with the Seahawks. The Chiefs have two maulers at C and RG, so expect a ton of explosives. Kansas City was 31st in 15+ yard runs since 2022 (41), and Walker is the RB3 with 59 of them over that same span. Patrick Mahomes has never played with someone like him, and I trust Eric Bieniemy to keep improving Walker's decision making. It'll be refreshing for the Chiefs to run more under center with more gap scheme runs, and the timing for that change aligns with Mahomes' return from a torn ACL. As a bonus, this signing means it'll be an EDGE, X WR, RT, or DB with that 9th overall pick. That's way better value than a RB.

Saints Sign Travis Etienne for $13M/Year (Grade: B+)

The $52M in total value is the highest in the NFL, but I'm assuming most of that is non-guaranteed. Assuming this is about a 2-year guaranteed contract, this is normal starting-RB money. He's reached 1,399 scrimmage yards in 3-of-4 seasons as a volume sponge. Etienne has improved his vision each year, even if he's not quite as explosive as he could've been before some early-career injuries. The Saints didn't have anyone scary at RB before this, and the Alvin Kamara restructure days before free agency are a sign that he could be sipping Pina Coladas in retirement very soon. Etienne should put up numbers behind an OL that is filled with early-round picks and a new veteran guard. More on LG David Edwards below.

Bucs Sign RB Kenneth Gainwell for $7M/Year (Grade: A-)

This is sandwiched between Javonte Williams, Tyler Allgeier, and Rico Dowdle. All of those backs are largely early-down guys, while Gainwell is priced this way because he's an electric pass-game role player. The Bucs are upgrading from Rachaad White in their eyes, while giving Bucky Irving a snap-share break after an injury-filled years. Gainwell was not just used in the check-down and screen game either. Aaron Rodgers trusted him with at-line checks and out of the slot. He won't get the same volume in Tampa Bay as he did in Pittsburgh based on the skill-position talent gap, but Gainwell should be efficient on a per-snap basis.

Cardinals Sign RB Tyler Allgeier for $6M/Year (Grade: B)

This is a great value across two seasons. It's not a long-term commitment, but Allgeier has been a starter for a season before being one of the most efficient RB2s in football. He's a stud in short yardage, ranking 9th in success rate on runs with 3-or-fewer yards to go, while Bijan Robinson was 39th behind the same OL. Allgeier has the potential to show his singles and doubles rushing style with more volume, as James Conner clearly took a paycut after a dislocated ankle to be the backup. The signing by itself is a good one, even if I'm very, very, very worried about the QB and OL situation in Arizona. I'll have more concerns with his fantasy value later on.

Steelers Sign RB Rico Dowdle for $6M/Year (Grade: B)

This is the same contract as Tyler Allgeier. Dowdle has better total stats but is also older. It's all a wash. The fit here is worth getting into, however. The Steelers have an entirely new coaching staff, and they opted to let pass-catcher Kenny Gainwell walk in exchange for the downhill Dowdle. That's absolutely an indictment on 2025 3rd-rounder Kaleb Johnson. It's also an indictment that new staff would rather have Jaylen Warren in the pass-game role rather than the early-down role he had for the first ever last season. This move will matter more for fantasy football debates than changing Super Bowl odds. The contract value backs that up.

Giants Sign TE Isaiah Likely for $13M/Year (Grade: B)

The fit with Likely and Jaxson Dart is my favorite part. A lot of Likely's production came in the Lamar Jackson scramble drill because he can out-run a lot of the defenders matched up with him from the slot. The scramble drill is one of Dart's biggest assets. It's a weird comparison given the size differences, but Likely is a cheaper replacement for slot WR Wan'Dale Robinson and it allows the Giants to use different personnel. Likely will play more than the 50% snaps he was getting with the Ravens, but it'd be a surprise if he cleared the 75% mark with the much-larger Theo Johnson available for blocking snaps.

Chargers Sign TE Charlie Kolar for $8M/Year (Grade: A-)

This is essentially the Dawson Knox role as the TE1 in the blocking game and clear TE2 in the receiving game. That'll belong to Orande Gadsden, who doesn't have the body to block like Kolar can at 6'6"/265 with 94th percentile 34.5" arms. At only 27 years old, there is room for sneaky upside here, too. He's been a clear TE3 to date, but Kolar has a career 10.0 yards per target on a 71% success rate. Those are elite marks, even in a small 41-target sample. There is a lot of overlap between the Ravens and Chargers, so this is a high-floor move no matter what.

Raiders Sign C Tyler Linderbaum for $27M/Year (Grade: C-)

There are two sides to this: price and fit. The price is absurd, point blank. The previous top contract at C belonged to Creed Humphrey, who is better than Linderbaum, at $18M, so this was an increase of $9M! This was higher than the franchise tag the Ravens declined and in line with many quality tackles. This is a full reset of how centers will be valued moving forward, or a contract that will be ignored by the rest of the NFL. We'll see.

The fit is another thing. The Raiders had the most cap space ever, by far, and any dollar spent now is largely meaningless given the state of their roster. Vegas also had an insulting interior offensive line, spoiling any shot of Geno Smith or Ashton Jeanty having a good season. That can't happen again, especially with a rookie QB coming in. Linderbaum is a very real step to getting serious in the trenches. That absolutely matters!

Chargers Sign C Tyler Biadasz for $10M/Year (Grade: A-)

This 3-year, $30M deal was very savvy given it anticipated a massive overpay for Tyler Linderbaum. The Chargers took advantage of the Commanders' mistake of releasing Biadsz instead of getting a pick for him, and they got him in the building immediately. A retirement at center opened up an already humongous hole on the interior for Los Angeles, and Biadsz gives this unit average center play. If they can surround him with real talent at each guard spot, then this OL goes from miserable to solid. We saw the dividends of a similar upgrade with the Bears in 2025.

Lions Sign C Cade Mays for $8M/Year (Grade: B+)

He wouldn't be a fit for everyone given his size and lackluster mobility, but Mays' mauling style fits Dan Campbell and this more gap-schemed offense. Detroit's OL fell apart following retirements, injuries, and free agency losses, so getting help from LT to RG was required. Mays was a key part of Rico Dowdle's big season with the Panthers and even has some experience at guard, too. This all coming at 30% of the cost of Linderbaum is an obvious win.

Browns Sign LG Zion Johnson for $16.5M/Year (Grade: D)

This feels like a lot given what he played like during his rookie contract, and even just last year when the Chargers couldn't block anyone. Johnson is a former 1st-round pick and has played 1,000 snaps in 4-straight seasons, while the Browns started the offseason without a sure-fire starter at any position. Johnson is a step closer to fielding a real OL for whoever is quarterbacking. The harder part to square is if Johnson is better than David Edwards ($15.5M) or even veteran Isaac Seumalo ($10.5M).

Saints Sign LG David Edwards for $15.5M (Grade: B-)

The guaranteed money isn't reported yet, but assuming it's the normal 2-year guaranteed, this is a fine contract for an average starter. Edwards is coming off a 1,000-snap season and enters his age-29 season, so this is a super high floor signing as he slides between LT Kelvin Banks and C Erik McCoy. The entire OL is set for Tyler Shough and Travis Etienne. That's refreshing after years of looking to the draft to solve their consistent issues.

Patriots Sign LG Alijah Vera-Tucker for $14M (Grade: A)

This is a pretty significant injury discount, as the top guards make $20M annually with ease even before the salary cap blew up this offseason. Vera-Tucker is a Pro Bowl talent when healthy. It's just been a string of unfortunate injuries, but a pre-season torn bicep is the type of injury that shouldn't prevent him from having a normal upcoming offseason at least and he came back from his torn achilles the year before with great success. The fit is a good one, as the trade of C Garrett Bradbury signaled that 2025 3rd-rounder Jared Wilson is pivoting back to center after starting at guard as a rookie. Will Campbell being placed next to a high-upside veteran rather than a fellow rookie will really help him out.

Panthers Sign EDGE Jaelan Phillips for $30M/Year (Grade: C)

This is a 4-year, $120M deal with $80M guaranteed. That's essentially a 3-year, $90M deal with a 4th-year team option for a 27-year-old coming off a great season. Phillips was EDGE8 in true pressure rate according to Brandon Thorn's grading, and he can stay on the field against the run, too. The Panthers have completely overhauled their defense with massive swings in free agency, which comes at few discounts but does ultimately moves the needle. Phillips' contract is in line with Josh Hines-Allen, Nik Bonnito, and Brian Burns. That's real high-end company, and those players don't have the injury history Phillips has.

Commanders Sign EDGE Odafe Oweh for $25M/Year (Grade: C)

It costs a lot to find an upside edge rusher in free agency! Oweh was on pace to sign a forgettable contract as a former 1st-rounder while on the Ravens (0.36 sacks per game), but he went nuts on the Chargers. 10.5 sacks in 13 games including the playoffs. Over the entire season, Oweh was EDGE10 in Pass Rush Win Rate! His speed is evident on tape, and he enters the prime of his career at 27 years old. The Commanders needed him with veterans hitting free agency.

Bengals Sign EDGE Boye Mafe for $20M/Year (Grade: A-)

Once again, it costs a lot to find an upside edge rusher in free agency! But Mafe has flashed real upside in a part time role. Last year, he was EDGE8 in Pass Rush Win Rate per ESPN's player tracking on a Super Bowl defense. Mafe will go from that to being the best player on the Bengals defensive line (No. 32 in PRWR last year), so we'll see if his efficiency can keep up on more snaps. At 27 years old, there is at least some hope this is the Trey Hendrickson storyline all over again. Mafe has the speed to be a real EDGE1. I liked this contract more than going for Odafe Oweh at $5M more annually, and he has a lot more pass-rush upside than Kwity Paye at $16M per year.

Raiders Sign EDGE Kwity Paye for $16M/Year (Grade: C)

Trading Maxx Crosby was smart and aligns with the Raiders' long-term rebuild timeline. Paye also aligns, as a 27-year-old former 1st-rounder. Crosby is one of the best run defenders at the position, and that's exactly what Paye provides at this point. That's EDGE10 in Run Stuff Win Rate per ESPN. Unfortunately, there isn't the pass-rush upside that comes along with it. Paye will start and eat snaps for a team desperate just for that. They are also not one step closer to finding the upside necessary to really take a leap as a team.

Patriots Sign EDGE Dre'Mont Jones for $12M/Year (Grade: B+)

Coming soon.

Titans Sign DT John Franklin-Myers for $21M/Year (Grade: B+)

There are a lot of defensive tackles ranging from $20M to $31M (Chris Jones), so this is not a resetting deal at all. Franklin-Meyers was the only pass-rushing option in his prime (29yo) at the position this free agency, and the Titans absolutely needed another starter next to All Pro DT Jeffery Simmons after trading away their nose tackle. JFM is a better fit for Robert Saleh's scheme than T'Vondre Sweat, as was EDGE Jermaine Johnson who was the return for Sweat. It's easy to see how much say Saleh has on this roster. It'd be a complete shock if the Titans are anywhere near ranking 28th in EPA allowed again.

Panthers Sign LB Devin Lloyd for $15M/Year (Grade: A-)

This is a mature offer. It's not even a fully guaranteed second season, and the per-year value comes in $6M less than Fred Warner without adjusting for exploded cap space. There was a world where teams were pricing in the volatility of interceptions too much, but this is not that. Lloyd is a great athlete who has vastly improved in zone coverage throughout his career. Carolina has been beyond desperate for LB play recently, so the fit is tailor made.

Raiders Sign LB Quay Walker for $13M/Year (Grade: C)

He is a former 1st-rounder with rare athletic traits at 26 years old. There is hypothetical upside here for a team absolutely desperate for it. But Walker's tape was just soooooo inconsistent. He can get lost in zone coverage and then can get exposed in the run fit. When Walker is pointed in the correct direction, he'll make some big plays. I just value the consistency and mental side of the position more than the Raiders do here.

Raiders Sign LB Nakobe Dean for $12M/Year (Grade: B)

When healthy, Dean is an impact player. He plays a lot bigger than his size and is a very fun blitzer to help chip away with the massive void Maxx Crosby leaves behind. Dean was also valued as a leader for Vic Fangio's defense and allowed Zach Baun to have a versatile role in this zone-heavy defense, so there's some versatility included. Dean will be more trusted than Walker on passing downs, but Dean is more of a mixed bag against the run and has an extensive injury history (lisfranc, patella tendon, hamstring). What I do like is that Dean and Walker played together at Georgia, so there's some familiarity built in with this young duo.

Giants Sign LB Tremaine Edmunds for $12M/Year

Coming soon.

Jets Sign LB Demario Davis for $11M/Year (Grade: B-)

That's $15M guaranteed, so it'll be $15M for one year or $22M for two years. Keep in mind, Davis is 37 years old!!! Unc still absolutely had it last year, but this is a new team and Davis once again finds himself on a rebuilding team. The Jets could be bringing in a LB at 2nd overall, so this could be a mentorship program as much as he is providing the team with top-10 tackles.

Titans Sign CB Alontae Taylor for $19M/Year

Coming soon!

Rams Sign CB Jaylen Watson for $17M/Year

Coming soon!

Titans Sign CB Cordale Flott for $15M/Year

Coming soon!

Steelers Sign CB Jamel Dean for $12M/Year

Coming soon!

Vikings Sign CB James Pierre for $4M/Year

Coming soon!

Bengals Sign S Bryan Cook for $13M/Year

Coming soon!

Bears Sign S Coby Bryant for $13M/Year

Coming soon!

Cowboys Sign S Jalen Thompson for $11M/Year

Coming soon!

The Re-Signings on Offense

The Bucs getting TE Cade Otton, who can play every down and in every role at the position, for just $10M/year is one of the best moves of a busy day. That's sandwiched between part-time players Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar. Great value. ... The Giants preventing veteran RT Jermaine Eluemunor from hitting the open market is a win. He was a leader for a quality OL, and it's hard to find competent tackle play. Keeping Jaxson Dart's OL in tact is smart business at just $13M per year. Compare that to the $18M/year extension RT Tytus Howard received after the Browns traded for him. ... Rashid Shaheed will continue providing special teams and downfield WR value for the Seahawks, who essentially gave Shaheed the contract Kenneth Walker received on the open market. Remember that when discussing NFL Draft positional value. It matters. ... We all understand Travis Kelce re-signing, I'd hope. ... The Commanders are lucky that Marcus Mariota didn't get a bridge QB offer. Instead, he's back at $7M, which is actually a pay cut from the year before (even though I thought Mariota played his best ball ever).