Mispriced Fantasy Football QBs Based On Their Pass-Catchers

Jul 24th 2022

Hayden Winks

Sometimes we just don’t make sense. Today I’m looking into the market’s player biases by looking at each QB’s ADP versus all of his teammates. In theory, the QB’s ADP should line up with where his pass-catchers are going in drafts, but that isn’t always the case for reasons that often can be summed up by “Man, that dude just isn’t fun.” Well, if you’re trying to make some stone cold cash, then we should take advantage of this.

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1 Pass Catcher Ahead Of The QB

  • Josh Allen (Stefon Diggs)

  • Patrick Mahomes (Travis Kelce)

  • Lamar Jackson (Mark Andrews)

  • Kyler Murray (Marquise Brown)

  • Jalen Hurts (A.J. Brown)

  • Aaron Rodgers (Allen Lazard)

  • Justin Fields (Darnell Mooney)

  • Matt Ryan (Michael Pittman)

  • Trevor Lawrence (Christian Kirk)

The dual-threat QBs being in here makes a lot of sense, but the in-pocket QBs that crack this list are puzzling. One of these are true: the QB is overpriced, or his secondary pass-catchers are underpriced. 

As for Patrick Mahomes, I think it’s the latter, where JuJu Smith-Schuster or MVS are going to breakout with Skyy Moore and Mecole Hardman also contributing. Aaron Rodgers’ ADP seems a little too high and the rest of his pass-catchers are probably a little too cheap all at the same time. Matt Ryan’s ADP seems fine (maybe a little high), but it’s evident that either Michael Pittman is going to the moon or the rest of the pass-catchers (Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce) are going too late. Trevor Lawrence’s ADP is fine based on his upside, and the rest of his pass-catchers are too cheap. Marvin Jones, Zay Jones, and particularly Evan Engram are targets.

2 Pass Catchers Ahead Of The QB

  • Justin Herbert (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams)

  • Joe Burrow (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins)

  • Trey Lance (Deebo Samuel and George Kittle)

  • Russell Wilson (Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy)

  • Dak Prescott (CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz)

  • Matthew Stafford (Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson)

  • Kirk Cousins (Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen)

  • Tua Tagovailoa (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle)

  • Daniel Jones (Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay)

  • Baker Mayfield (DJ Moore and Robby Anderson)

  • Deshaun Watson (Amari Cooper and David Njoku)

  • Marcus Mariota (Kyle Pitts and Drake London)

I think most QBs should have two pass-catchers going ahead of them, so there’s not much to discuss here. The only potential notes are 1) the gap between Trey Lance and his pass-catchers shouldn't be as wide given his rushing projections, and 2) Marcus Mariota is largely going undrafted, projects for 25+ rushing yards per game, and has two top-75 pass-catchers. I get that we’re concerned that Mariota won’t get the entire season, but that is sooooo baked in. Enough so where it’s unique to even draft him, let alone stack him with two total studs.

3 Pass Catchers Ahead Of The QB

  • Tom Brady (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage)

  • Derek Carr (Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow)

  • Mac Jones (Jakobi Meyers, DeVante Parker, and Hunter Henry)

  • Jameis Winston (Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry)

  • Zach Wilson (Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, and Corey Davis)

  • Ryan Tannehill (Treylon Burks, Robert Woods, and Austin Hooper)

  • Carson Wentz (Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel)

  • Davis Mills (Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, and John Metchie)

  • Seahawks QB (DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant)

It makes sense for the QBs we have playing time concerns with to be on this list, but it’s tough to make the math work for the full-time QBs to be ranked behind three of their pass-catchers. This especially so for Tom Brady and Derek Carr, who have multiple top-five round pass-catchers in ADP. Brady is a heavy favorite to be a better pick than Russell Gage. Carr is a heavy favorite to be a better pick than Hunter Renfrow. That, or Mike Evans/Davante Adams are severely mis-priced.

4 Pass Catchers Ahead Of The QB

  • Jared Goff (Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson, Jameson Williams, and D.J. Chark)

  • Steelers QB (Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, and George Pickens)

There really is no reason for a team to have four pass-catchers ahead of its QB, so this column was a long way to say Jared Goff is severely underdrafted. Two top-100 picks and then two more top-70 receivers, yet Goff goes 191st overall as the QB26 behind potential WR4s and RB3s. Goff could be the QB2 on an elite QB1 team, and he certainly is a stacking QB3 option. Goff’s pass-catchers, offensive line, and coaching staff seem pretty stable. The floor is far lower with the Steelers QBs, but the upside is similar to this Goff discussion. If Kenny Pickett (or Mitchell Trubisky) start most of the season, they will smash this ADP by 50ish spots, plus are extremely easy to correlate for best ball playoff weeks. As a bonus, both Pickett and Trubisky are going undrafted more times than not.