NFL Week 14 Recap - The Fantasy Usage Model
Posted every Tuesday, The Fantasy Usage Model combines my expected fantasy points model with his film notes to recap the previous week's game. An explanation of this is here, but it basically turns targets, carries, air yards, goal line touches, and other variables into expected fantasy points. We have the sickest fantasy show ever on Tuesday nights going over this column. If you have time for 1 hour of fantasy content, make it this one.
Week 14 Fantasy Points vs. Expected
These are averages from Weeks 11-14. Best viewed on desktop/laptop. Watch our YouTube show on this column. People who viewed Stats vs. Film watched for over 30 minutes last week. It's our most engaging content. It's live on Tuesday night.
Some quick notes on players: Bijan Robinson is now the Falcons goal line RB ... While very clearly good, Keaton Mitchell is still under 7.0 expected half PPR in every game ... Stefon Diggs hasn't hit 14.0 expected half PPR since Week 7 with the Bills playing more balanced ... Panthers have given up on passing (last in neutral pass rate), rightfully so ... D'Onta Foreman rug-pulled Roschon Johnson ... Amari Cooper and David Njoku are very frisky with the Browns letting Joe Flacco cook (3rd in neutral pass rate) ... Courtland Sutton continues to 360 windmill dunk on my receiving TD model ... Negative game script hurt David Montgomery, especially after Jahmyr Gibbs two long-ish runs early ... Jayden Reed had a season-high 15.4 expected half PPR points without Christian Watson (hamstring). He's also good ... Throw out the Texans game (and perhaps the season if Nico Collins can't play long term) ... Zack Moss had 7.6 half PPR points on *wait for it* 20.2 expected half PPR points, thanks to 8 targets and 2 goal line opportunities. The tilt is real ... The Zay Jones pump up speech was intended for Evan Engram (18.1 expected half PPR), not Calvin Ridley, this week ... Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 10.0 expected half PPR points as a bowling ball, but Jerick McKinnon (7.0) was on the field for the 6-yard TD on a 3rd-and-4 when Mahomes checked into the favorable run look. This is a near even committee right now, with McKinnon probably more likely to ride a "hot hand" ... Rams are 1st in WR fantasy usage and RB fantasy usage. Shoutout Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. Dawgs ... Austin Ekeler (15.9 expected half PPR points) won the "hot hand battle" after Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller couldn't get it going. Shocking. That, of course, won't matter with Justin Herbert likely out for the season ... We'll see what Zamir White has in the tank, now that contract-year Josh Jacobs picked up an injury. As a reminder, the Raiders were scoreless in Week 14 ... Raheem Mostert is the primary goal line RB, while De'Von Achane was used in the 2-minute drills more often. Both can get there. Mostert likely finishes with more opportunities rest of season ... We witnessed a literal hospital ball from Joshua Dobbs. Justin Jefferson has to be beyond tilted right now, though the Vikings are currently the NFC #6 seed ... Ezekiel Elliott had 20.7 expected half PPR points as a rare 2023 bellcow RB. Dare I say he looks good on tape? ... Alvin Kamara (13.0 expected half PPR) lost work to Gyration King Jamaal Williams ... Wan'Dale Robinson is back in our PPR scamming lives ... Dalvin Cook started, but Breece Hall had the final laugh (15.4 expected half PPR) with Zach Wilson playing his best game of his career in rainy conditions. They passed like crazy ... The Eagles aren't good enough to give D'Andre Swift the very positive game scripts he needs. He has under 11.0 expected half PPR in 4-straight ... The Steelers are unserious until Kenny Pickett returns in 2-3 games ... Zach Charbonnet is a legit problem for Kenneth Walker's usage (9.9 expected half PPR), unless the Seahawks can get back to winning games ... Deebo Samuel looks outrageous (read: healthy) again. The 49ers are quietly 10th in neutral pass rate right now ... The Bucs are 28th in neutral pass rate this month, for some reason ... DeAndre Hopkins is boom-bust, but at least the offense is capable of booms again ...
