A lot of our offseason fantasy football research has been identifying trends for finding the actual league winning picks. Depending on the definition, there are about 10-20 players who really swing things each season, and they represent the playoff teams at a disproportional rate. In other words, find 1-2 huge hits, and you can win even if the rest of your team is average. This is what we went over with Ryan Heath (watch below), Jakob Sanderson, and Ron Stewart recently, and I have even more data to point us in the correct direction.

Research: Best Ball League Winners

This chart shows the upside hit rates by position throughout Best Ball Mania drafts. A "hit" is defined as a player who is in the top 5th percentile, in terms of his team's average points scored in the Underdog Fantasy regular season for that particular year. As a reference point, these were the 15 players who qualified last year in order of importance: WR Ja'Marr Chase (his teams averaged 1,665 regular season points), RB Saquon Barkley, QB Joe Burrow, RB Derrick Henry, RB Chuba Hubbard, WR Jauan Jennings, RB Alvin Kamara, RB Josh Jacobs, QB Lamar Jackson, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Courtland Sutton, QB Sam Darnold, WR Terry McLaurin, and RB Chase Brown. That's a good metric!

So what are the takeaways from the chart?

• WRs in Rounds 3-4 have a 2.8% upside hit rate, and this is the part of the draft where WR prices have gone up the most in recent seasons. There has been research on RPOs going to true alphas, not this next tier of real-life WRs. The fantasy community may also be forcing WRs up this high for perceived roster construction advantages, which is very much up for debate now that the RB dead zone window no longer exists in this range.

• TEs are rarely on these top 5th percentile players. It's happened just twice; 2023 Travis Kelce and 2021 Travis Kelce, although 2021 Rob Gronkowski and 2021 Mark Andrews just missed the threshold. Here are there respective yards per game and total TDs as a baseline of what is necessary to pull this off: 79YPG & 12TD, 94 & 11, 62 & 6 (this was driven by MVP Tom Brady correlation), and 80 & 9.

• 8 out of 10 upside hit QBs were top-120 picks. After looking at these hits, it's the dual-threat QBs in the Round 3-4 range or the pocket passers in the 73-120 range only. This makes sense. The dual-threats can provide such an advantage in half PPR by themselves, while a passer who gets their with passing TDs drags up multiple pass catchers, giving the entire roster more upside.

• There are more last-round WR upside hits than given credit for. Let's look at picks after 180th overall and change the upside hit definition to just top 16% teams (like you'll see below). There were 18 WR hits, 12 TE hits, 10 RB hits, and 5 QB hits.

Today's goal is to find the next group of players who will be on these top 5th percentile teams, and a great place to start is by looking in the first top-120 picks. Sure, there will be players we will tack onto winning teams, but most of the upside on a team happens early. Just check out this chart where I looked at the top 16% teams, which matches up with the regular season advancing of 2/12 teams. It's this range that's the focus.

25 Fantasy Football League Winners For 2025

I have 5 rookies, 2 "washed" RBs, and about 20 players who are at least good at football.

1. RB Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP: 5th): Only Saquon and Derrick Henry averaged more half PPR points per game last year (18.3), and there are multiple ways he can take another leap. David Montgomery could no longer be the "starter" and handle a 50/50 split of goal-line touches, or D-Mont could just miss significant time. In either scenario, Gibbs has 1st overall player in fantasy easily within his range of outcomes. There are reasons to believe an OL step back is likely--replacing All Pro C Frank Ragnow isn't easy--but 2nd-round IOL Tate Ratledge is a great athlete, Graham Glasnow is a veteran, and the flashes down the stretch from LG Christian Mahogany were sweet. With Jared Goff playing his best ball ever, this team is more equipped to overcome OC and C departures than ever. And if shit hits the fan, give the ball to Gibbs and see what happens.

2. RB Christian McCaffrey (ADP: 7th): Since his 2018 breakout, CMC is the owner of the 1st, 3rd, 12th, and 18th spots in single-season half PPR points among all RBs, WRs, and TEs. His bankability of elite fantasy production is unrivaled when he's on the field, and the 29-year-old was out there practicing all offseason coming off a season when he only handled 65 touches. We have 10 seasons of a RB averaging more than 18.3 half PPR points at his age or older since 2000, so it's certainly possible he bounces all the way back towards fantasy greatness. If you only play in one league and don't want the risk, I get it. If you're firing up more than a couple or aren't scared to compete, let's get aggressive for as long as he survives training camp healthy. 90% of teams are going to lose anyways. It helps that the 49ers are projected for the 3rd-most points this year on the easiest strength of schedule.

3. WR Nico Collins (ADP: 10th): Here are the WRs with more yards per route over the past two seasons: ... It's just him in the 3.0+ club right now, and Collins enters his prime just as his QB does. The competition for targets is relatively weak, and there's nothing but room for improvement in terms of play calling with new OC Nick Caley and a new OL coach. Collins has speed, size, and manufactured touch ability all in one. For much of 2024, he had the highest in-game miles per hour. At 6'4"!!! There is a little more injury risk with the WRs around him (Nabers' toe, Amon-Ra's knee surgery, Puka with Stafford's back, etc.), so ties are breaking towards him at the Round 1/2 turn.

4. WR Brian Thomas (ADP: 13th): The only WR to average more half PPR points from Week 12 on last year was Ja'Marr Chase, and he did so with Mac Jones at QB and Doug Pederson at HC. BTJ has the physical traits to be one of the best WRs in the NFL if he continues his development (primarily just finding the weak spots in zone defense). He's too big and fast for CBs to contain him vertically, and the Jaguars deployed him underneath late in the year to great success. The latter is where new HC Liam Coen was so good at during his stint with the Bucs, and if Travis Hunter is limited to just 66-80% snaps on offense, then there's nothing stopping the 23-year-old from solidifying himself as an annual Round 1 candidate. He was already the WR6 overall in yards per route as an early-declare rookie.

5. RB De'Von Achane (ADP: 14th): He's been a fantasy RB1 in back-to-back years to start his career, but they couldn't have happened in more different ways. Achane's rookie season was a home run derby (7.8 YPC), featuring scores from 25, 67, and 76 yards out. Last year, his rushing efficiency predictably dipped (4.5 YPC), but Achane had the receiving triple crown (78-592-6) among RBs. If we only took the 11 healthy Tua Tagovailoa games, Achane quietly averaged 19.3 half PPR points per game, which would've only trailed Saquon last year. Hopefully Tua can stay upright and the three new starters on the OL (LT Patrick Paul, LG James Daniels, and RG Jonah Savaiinaea) can gel because Achane has the potential to be the RB1 overall finisher if things break his way. On top of this, the Jonnu Smith trade opens up 20% target share (mostly underneath where Achane feasts) and the Jalen Ramsey trade puts the Dolphins in consideration for the very worst CB group in the NFL. What a win.

Update: He is dealing with a calf injury. If we get good news by your draft night, then awesome. Until then, I've moved Achane to the end of Round 2. Soft-tissue injuries at this time are no fun.

6. WR Tee Higgins (ADP: 24th): In the most pass-heavy offense in neutral situations (63% pass), Higgins averaged WR4 half PPR points on WR3 overall per-game usage. He's not a math-based regression candidate and nothing has changed, yet he's the WR13 in drafts. Higgins can pay off his ADP with less volume, and if something ever happened to Ja'Marr Chase, Higgins would be a Round 1 value. Joe Burrow is coming off his best season yet, and it's nearly impossible to take away this pass game with his smarts and these two WRs on opposite sides of the field. He's really no different than Drake London at the beginning of Round 2.

7. TE Trey McBride (ADP: 27th): This is the range in the draft where things really drop off, and McBride is the most unique click. After coming back from a minor injury in Week 4, McBride averaged 79 YPG on 9.7 targets per game... and nothing has really changed around him. It's the same QB, HC, OC, OL, and target competition, and that 13-game stint that I just referenced was during a very sustainable 7-6 record from the Cardinals. Perhaps Marvin Harrison takes such a big year two leap that McBride is impacted, but he's a simply more creative YAC player who should still dominate targets underneath. To me, it's more likely that McBride's volume stays relatively the same but his touchdowns positively regress. Nobody ran worse with scores last year (2 receiving touchdowns versus 9.0 expected receiving touchdowns).

8. QB Lamar Jackson (ADP: 32nd): In last year's MVP-caliber campaign, Lamar finished with 8.2 more fantasy points per game than the QB12. The QB1 overall's average points over replacement in previous seasons were 5.6, 8.5, 5.6, and 6.9, so what Lamar accomplished last year was special stuff. In fact, 30% of teams with Lamar last year came in 1st or 2nd place during the regular season, when the baseline for that metric is only 16.7%. The three primary reasons for his explosive season were 1) OC Todd Monken calling a better-schemed and more pass-heavy game plan in his first year calling plays, 2) the addition of Derrick Henry open throwing lanes, and 3) Lamar just getting more comfortable within the pocket. Nothing's changed off that, so I'll take this full round discount from last year's 24th overall per-game finish. He's at the very top of his game right now and has the momentary QB crown until Mahomes brings the deep ball back in my opinion.

9. I removed Omarion Hampton after the LT Rashawn Slater (patella) news.

10. WR Xavier Worthy (ADP: 43rd): The baseline assumption for all 21-year-old early-declare rookies should be their following season will look a whole lot better. That's Worthy, who already showed development during the NFL Playoffs compared to his first few games on the Chiefs. He averaged 74 receiving yards per game over his last 7 games once he was playing 80% of the snaps, and Worthy has the valuable role of being a manufactured touch option while also being the primary downfield threat. The Chiefs are more likely to throw deep this year now that they might have left tackle figured out, and Mahomes' splits with Worthy on the field last year were already drastic. Worthy has a chance to be a high-volume target without Rashee Rice early in the year, and I anticipate him running by plenty of safeties for long scores. I hate to say it, but Worthy is looking like a "Better In Best Ball" icon. I'm stunned his ADP hasn't moved off the initial Rice news.

11. QB Jalen Hurts (ADP: 45th): For a bit, Hurts was a 5th-round pick on Underdog. Preposterous. Over the past three seasons since the A.J. Brown trade, Hurts is averaging the 2nd-most fantasy points per game (23.0), only trailing Josh Allen. That's 5.7 more fantasy points per game than the QB12 over that stretch, so this is a real advantage and one that's highly consistent. On top of his historical numbers, Hurts is also playing better each year individually on tape. His play against the blitz was better in 2024, and his decision making is improving going into his age-28 season. We should expect him to get better, not worse, over the next few years. If they have to pass more because game scripts are tighter, Hurts is a stone-cold smash. I wrote about his development here.

12. WR George Pickens (ADP: 48th): His development over the first three years has been notable, and now Pickens has the QB play and offense to allow him to showcase his improved route running skills. He's never run digs or slants really, but Dak Prescott actually throws passes like that, which should allow Pickens to provide yards after catch numbers for his first time. More importantly, Pickens is already productive without that; Pickens has been the WR12 in yards per route over the past two seasons. Start doing the math on what that looks like when he goes from an offense that was 31st in pass attempts (1,005) to 3rd in pass attempts (1,251) over that same two-year sample. Things look good even with CeeDee Lamb healthy. What would happen if it was just Pickens for a stretch?

13. RB Kenneth Walker III (ADP: 50th): Last year's season was spectacular when healthy. Walker led all RBs in forced missed tackles at a true outlier rate, and he did so despite being 48th out of 50 in yards before contact per carry. He was breaking tackles in his own backfield without momentum. I can't stress how impressive that is. He also set career highs in receiving stats, something new OC Klint Kubiak has said he wants to continue: "I’ve seen the guy catch the ball well out of the backfield, which I think is really important for our backs that we utilize them. Obviously, whatever we can do to get him touches, throwing him routes out of the backfield, throwing him screens." The Seahawks OL remains problematic, but it should be better than 2024 when RT Abe Lucas missed time and the interior was a disaster. They snagged LG Gray Zabel in Round 1 and have a new C/RG brewing. If that gels at all in a very RB-focused Kubiak offense, Walker has the talent to be one of the most explosive RBs in the NFL.

14. RB Chuba Hubbard (ADP: 53rd): As the clear-cut starter from Weeks 3-16, Hubbard was the RB9 in half PPR points per game despite the Panthers scoring the 23rd-most points while allowing the most points on defense during that span. In other words, the Panthers were mid on offense and rarely had the game script needed to fully go to the moon. Carolina spent the offseason making some minor improvements on defense and sprinkling in a major upgrade at WR with Tetairoa McMillan. The entire OL returns as well, so Hubbard is in a likely better spot for fantasy than he was last year. His workload seems safe for two reasons; he has guaranteed money for the next two seasons, and he is coming off the RB9 season in PFF run grade, RB7 in yards after contact per carry, and the RB6 in 15+ yard carries. If he borders as a top-10 fantasy RB, then Hubbard is a great roster construction pick after snagging an elite WR or two in the first few rounds first. The Panthers want to run the rock.

15. RB Alvin Kamara (ADP: 56th): The 29-year-old's age is very largely priced in, arguably too priced in after his efficiency rebounded last year on a career-high carry total. Kamara was the half PPR's 10th overall player last year. What's new about 2025 is that the Saints OL looks improved and new coach Kellen Moore's has a history of playing with pace. Last year's teams who out-scored their preseason projections had better OLs and OCs than given credit for. That could be true here. Drafting LT Kelvin Banks at 9th overall puts 2023 1st-rounder Taliese Fuaga back to his college side at RT and pushes volatile 1st-rounder inside, where he has C Erik McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz to help out. Moore's pace has been top-8 in every season and is showing his team fast-break offenses from the NBA as an example this offseason. Are we really sure that 6th-round RB Devin Neal, Kendre Miller, Cam Akers, or CEH is actually going to steal work from Kamara this year? By the way, Kamara has $10M guaranteed in 2026 as well.

16. WR Jauan Jennings (ADP: 64th): Something we learned in our video with Ryan Heath is that first downs per route doesn't improve in these league winning WR seasons, meaning the previous season's FDRR stats are a leading predictor of who is bound to fully breakout the following year (with either more routes or better TD luck). There are a cluster of WRs in this Round 5-6 range who stand out, but Jennings' situation is by far the best. On tape, Jennings is a physical target with a knack for finding the soft spots in zone. He can run most routes well despite having mediocre speed, and Brock Purdy's continued development solidifies his floor. In 8 games when he played above 70% snaps, Jennings averaged 82 yards on a great 2.4 yards per route. If those metric's hold and Jennings can soak up an outlier rate of TDs in an offense projected for the 3rd-most points with the league's easiest schedule, then Jennings is a massive hit at this cost. I don't love the offseason vibes from Brandon Aiyuk either.

17. WR Stefon Diggs (ADP: 74th): Speaking of being very good in first downs per route run ... Is it bold to include a 31-year-old coming off a torn ACL? Probably. But Diggs dodged the PUP list from the jump, was out-running the other Patriots WRs in OTAs, and was the WR7 in ESPN's Open Score last year before his injury. Diggs isn't the same downfield speedster that he was with the Vikings and Bills, but he is still a nasty route runner with great hands and all the experience needed to handle this Josh McDaniels offense. I expect him to clean up on underneath and intermediate routes as a full-time player from Week 1 on. If there's a tangible Drake Maye 2nd-year breakout included, then Diggs can flirt with top-20 numbers in a pretty weak 7th round of fantasy drafts. He's been the WR17 in half PPR points per game over the past two years:

18. Rookie WR Matthew Golden (ADP: 78th): The Packers are on the brink of getting into that great offense tier. Having Jordan Love fully healthy would help, but the real problem with the offense has been the lack of a reliable outside target. Golden's 1st-round draft capital suggests he's their answer to that. He's been participating with the 1st-team offense early in training camp, and if Jayden Reed's lack of 2-WR sets in the previous two seasons are any indication, then Golden has a chance to inch towards a full-time role earlier rather than later. His college tape improved every month, then he lit up the NFL Combine. Golden's start-stop ability and overall body control are the standout trait. He has Post Bye Rookie Bump written all over him.

19. QB Patrick Mahomes (ADP: 85th): This is where Mahomes has finished since being a starter: QB1, QB8 while missing some games, QB4, QB4, QB1, QB8, and most recently QB11. The two years without Tyreek Hill have been his statistical worse, but Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, and Hollywood Brown are more in line with the quality of his WR play when he was the QB1 to QB4 for years in a row. The Chiefs are still extremely pass heavy, but they haven't thrown deep in recent years. This 3-WR set could win a 3x100 race across the league, so it feels promising that the downfield production rebounds in 2025. When pocket QBs at discounted prices rebound to a 40+ TD season, they are the best picks in best ball; Joe Burrow last year, Dak Prescott in 2023, Mahomes in 2022, Tom Brady in 2021, and Aaron Rodgers in 2020. If 1st-round LT Josh Simmons plays as well as his July training camp reviews, then Mahomes can join that club once again. He was under the most quick pressure on standard dropbacks last year while LT was a complete mess.

20. WR Rashid Shaheed (ADP: 113th): The 27-year-old is in the prime of his career with some signal in his profile that he can handle more than he's shown. On tape, Shaheed is a demon on vertical routes and snapping those off on deep out routes. That's why he's been a long-TD player for the Saints recently. In fact, over his last 9 healthy games, Shaheed is on a 57-941-9 pace, while averaging 16.6 yards per catch. Before a torn meniscus ended his season short last year, he was the WR17 per game despite not getting any easy completions. Enter OC Kellen Moore, who has weaponized the screen game more than the coaches Shaheed has played under previously. I think he'd be good in this area and would make him a more consistent asset. On top of the new fast-paced play caller, the Saints also have an improved OL which features top-48 picks at all five starting spots.

21. Rookie TE Colston Loveland (ADP: 125th): The Michigan early declare easily was one of my favorite prospects on tape. He at least moves like T.J. Hockenson or Dallas Goedert, but there are moments of his lateral ability looking like a certain ****** *****. Loveland ran translatable routes from inline, the slot, and as a wide receiver. He can be used in the underneath game, but more importantly has the athleticism to be an intermediate target. There's a reason the first skill position move coach Ben Johnson made was drafting him. He's a better version of Sam LaPorta, and there isn't an established top target to Johnson yet. His ADP was suppressed by an offseason shoulder surgery, but Loveland was out there from the get go in camp and immediately sent Cole Kmet to the 2nd team. Even if the Bears are closer to a league average offense, there's enough upside to dream about with Loveland. If the Bears take a massive leap, Loveland can be the late-round TE answer of 2025.

22. WR Darius Slayton (ADP: 194th): He's played in the NFL for too long to expect a full breakout, but Slayton can be specifically useful in best ball where we don't have to predict his long receptions. What we should feel confident about is that there will be more opportunities for them with elite bucket thrower Russell Wilson versus Daniel Jones' depleted arm. Slayton said the alert routes are back on the table, and I watched Russ lead George Pickens to the most catchable deep targets in the NFL last year. The Giants know Slayton is better than his per-game stats, which is why he signed a $22M guaranteed contract this past offseason. He'll join Malik Nabers, who is dealing with a toe injury right now, in 2-WR sets over slot-only Wan'Dale Robinson. The 28-year-old has 8 career games with 90+ yards and a score despite playing on terrible offenses.

23. Rookie RB Tahj Brooks (ADP: 206th): There is a time and place for 6th-round rookie optimism. That starts and ends once there's a clear path in place after initial training camp reports, and when that player has some traits to stand on. After Zack Moss's release (neck), only 30-year-old Samaje Perine stands in Brooks way to be the valuable handcuff to Chase Brown. Perine only has two games above 14 carries since 2018, so it'd be Brooks in the event of missed time. Brooks isn't a flashy ballcarrier, but he has a thick build (at least 214 pounds) with some nice lateral ability, even if he's slow. More importantly, Brooks was trusted in pass protection, handled a big workload at Texas Tech, and is a high character player. These prospects never do the three-cone drill at the NFL Combine anymore, but Brooks wasn't scared to compete. For that alone, I'm a fan. Especially in these tournaments where he's been largely undrafted to this point, Brooks is a Round 16-18 target.