There are different scales of fantasy football sleepers. For those drafting one redraft league, anyone after the top 100 picks is suffice. For those reading this column in June who are drafting many teams on Underdog Fantasy, I have to dig deeper. I'm setting the sleeper bar for this column as players who are being drafted after 192nd overall, as that's the area where players are drafted under 50% of the time based on my previous research. These are essentially my targets in Round 16-18 in drafts right now.
1. Miles Sanders: Things went really sideways in Carolina, which is how he ended up signing a $1.1M guaranteed contract this offseason. But really how different is that from Javonte Williams' $2M guaranteed contract? It's not like either are bankably good, so the undrafted one is more appealing to me in best ball. Williams' and 5th-round rookie Jaydon Blue's value are both primarily on passing downs, and Sanders is more valuable on early downs. This report from Cowboys minicamp suggests its Sanders and Williams with the 1st-team offense right now.
2. Dylan Sampson: I had him as a late 3rd-round value, but Sampson slid to the 4th round and is firmly competing for a role with 2nd-rounder Quinshon Judkins and Jerome Ford, who is on an entirely tradable $1.8M contract. Sampson is much smaller than Judkins but could be a complimentary pass-catching back if Ford is traded like mentioned in this Athletic column.
3. Raheem Mostert: This is what Pete Carroll said at minicamp, "I love having multiple guys play. I’m not relying on one guy. Thunder and Lightning back in the day, whatever it takes to get it done. We’re going to let the guys play for their play time. Raheem, I love having him. He’s an experienced guy, he’s been a great speedster for years. We’ve defended him for years and he’s been a nightmare for us." His competition to be Ashton Jeanty's sidekick or clear-cut backup is Zamir White and Sincere McCormick, neither being backs this leadership brought in. That said, Mostert is on a $175k guaranteed contract, so tread lightly until we get more confirmation he's actually making the Raiders.
4. Darius Slayton: The 2-WR set starter signed a $22M guaranteed contract this offseason. Literally enough said at this point in the draft. He's my most-drafted player so far. If you need more convincing, the 28-year-old has 8 career games with 90+ yards and a score despite playing on terrible offenses.
5. Calvin Austin: The Steelers WR coach said he's the WR2. Enough said. We'll take last year's 3 games of 54+ receiving yards and a score with the QB upgrade of Aaron Rodgers, and figure the rest out later.
6. Dyami Brown: The late rookie-contract breakout signed a $10M rental contract with the Jaguars' new staff, probably because of his ability to win in the manufactured touch game that HC Liam Coen had so much success with the Bucs. Brown is going to struggle getting the ball if Travis Hunter is a full-time receiver, but if that's not true, Brown could be in line for more 2-WR sets than expected.
7. Jalen Coker: There are other potential team WR4s going well above Coker (Jalen McMillan, Jaylin Noel, Pat Bryant, etc.), and Coker showed some real traits as a rookie last year. He's great against zone coverage to start, and he has a big catch radius to work with against man coverage. Coker has inside-outside versatility, meaning he has contingent value on any of the top Panthers receivers. Coker also has to be the receiver the Panthers want to win instead of the aging (and very productive!) Adam Thielen.
8. Tre Tucker: A battle for WR2 duties on the Raiders has no clear winner right now. 2nd-rounder Jack Bech would be the highest-upside option available, but he might be a slot in the NFL which is where Jakobi Meyers has historically been effective. That might leave 24-year-old former 3rd-rounder Tre Tucker and 4th-round rookie Dont'e Thornton for the speed-based roles on the outside. Tucker has been largely ineffective on a ton of NFL routes, but Geno Smith can sling it and 3rd-year players with better draft capital are better picks than 4th-round rookies on average. Tucker at least had two games last year with 7 receptions and over 80 yards last year.
9. Ray-Ray McCloud: A receiver projected for a similar role who had 7 games of 6+ targets and 46+ yards should be in the Round 18 mix, especially on those Michael Penix stacks. Unfortunately in those games last year, McCloud scored 0 touchdowns. That's the difference of being usable or not.
Bonus. Josh Reynolds: Ties goes to connections, and Reynolds has deep ties to this Jets coaching staff dating back to all of their days together with the Lions. He's reportedly ahead of Allen Lazard in minicamp, and Reynolds could be a sacrificial X type to compliment the versatile Garrett Wilson. The 30-year-old signed a fully-guaranteed $2.75M contract this offseason. Perhaps he catches a few timely long touchdowns from aggressive thrower Justin Fields.
10. Theo Johnson: As a 4th-round rookie, Johnson played 84% snaps in 12 games before a broken foot. He's healthy now, and the only thing that's changed from last year is improved QB play. He's a free full-time player in an ascending offense, and Johnson also comes with elite athleticism and theoretical upside. He's one of the best sleepers in best ball, regardless of position.
11. Chig Okonkwo: In his last 7 healthy games in his 3rd NFL season, Okonwko graduated to 72% snaps and a 44 receiving yards per game average. That's not ground breaking, but it is enough to be worthy of a late-round dart throw, especially with 1st-overall QB Cam Ward providing more upside in Tennessee than they've had in years. Okonkwo has the athleticism for long scores at the very least, and this WR depth chart is disgusting. He's a great Round 17-18 selection.
12. Juwan Johnson: The 29-year-old played 6 games after Taysom Hill's major knee injury. In them, Johnson averaged 74% snaps and 45 yards per game, despite playing with rookie QB Spencer Rattler. We'll see if Tyler Shough can play the guitar, but Johnson is playing so many more snaps than the other available players this late in drafts. He's also finished as the TE1 overall in Week 17 before and signed a fully-guaranteed contract for 2025 and 2026.
13. Ja'Tavion Sanders: The Panthers used multiple TEs during his rookie season, partially because Sanders has size issues in the blocking game. That said, Tommy Tremble underwent back surgery and Sanders is suddenly competing with 5th-round rookie Mitchell Evans right now (who I think is actually pretty nice himself). Sanders may be forced into playing more than the 54% snaps he had last season.
Bonus: Orande Gadsden: Like Mitchell Evans mentioned above, Gadsden had some pre-draft sleeper appeal to me. He likely went too late to be taken seriously today, but if there are more positive news like we had from Jim Harbaugh here, then he can get onto the radar. For now, Gadsden is a receiving-first stacking partner on Justin Herbert teams for uniqueness and correlation reasons. He's on my watch list this August.
14. Daniel Jones: In New York, DJ's top receivers were Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson, Richie James, and Sterling Shepard, and it's easy to argue his collection of Colts skill players are vastly better than what he's had previously. Jones can run, giving him a weekly ceiling as well. In fact, he has 12 top-12 finishes at QB over the last 3 seasons, including 4 games as a top-3 QB. Reading between the lines, the Colts coaching staff was favoring Jones in the QB competition from the get go.
15. Jaxson Dart: I really liked him as a prospect, giving him a firm Round 1 grade despite the consensus disagreeing with me. On top of that, Dart can actually run, both as a scrambler and designed rusher. If his odds to start were greater, than he'd be my most drafted player. But Russell Wilson is the early-season plan, and I don't think Russ is as cooked as others believe. I can see this being close to a full half season for each with nothing coming from Jameis Winston. That makes both Dart and Russ viable as Round 18 selections--and I'd take the late-season production from Dart first--but it does make them a tier below from Daniel Jones and Tyler Shough, who likely play more than half the season. What does make Dart (and Russ) fun is that Darius Slayton and Theo Johnson also make this short list of targets. We have a potential low-drafted correlation team!
16. Tyler Shough: He's probably looking at 12+ games as the starter, if not all 17. Any QB projected for as many games as he has deserves a selection. It's that simple.
17. Anthony Richardson: It sounds hypocritical to be in on both Colts QBs, but I do so for different reasons. Right now, Jones projects for too many games started to be ignored this late. Richardson projects for way too high of a weekly ceiling in the event he does start games to be ignored this late, especially as his ADP heads towards undrafted territory. Richardson will need a Jones injury or benching to see the field again (no guarantee), but if he does start, then he's back to upside QB2 territory unlike other shaky QBs in this range who simply don't have the weekly upside.