It all comes down to this. For transparency, here are my current 2025 fantasy football rankings. They align with all of my thoughts laid out below.

1. Leagues Will Be Decided By Round 3 Picks

I'm not seeing obvious busts or risky players in the first down rounds, but there's a big drop off after the 25th overall pick in my estimation. The teams who can survive that drop off will have a huge advantage. To me, the best picks by far are WR Tee Higgins (25th), TE Trey McBride (26th), QB Lamar Jackson (29th), and TE George Kittle (36th). The other players seem like landmines, and I have no confidence that they are even better than the players available in the next two rounds. I wrote about the entire top-36 here and have a video on them here, but I truly do not understand how Higgins can be available in this range after averaging 6.1-76-0.8 last year even with Ja'Marr Chase available the entire year. Higgins was a top-5 WR in fantasy points and expected points last year. Nothing has changed.

2. The Best Rookie Picks Are Emeka Egbuka and Matthew Golden

The more I watched of them as prospects, the more I liked them. They finished 13th and 14th overall on my NFL Draft Top 100 Board, well above consensus. Since then, everything is breaking their ways. Egbuka has watched Chris Godwin undergo a second procedure and miss all of camp, including even rehabbing with the team on the side field, and Jalen McMillan is out months after a preseason neck injury. The rookie is lighting up camp and preseason, and he was an extremely high floor prospect to begin with. This Bucs will have him in 2-WR sets immediately. In Green Bay, Golden has been a camp standout and a full-time player. There's some competition, but Jayden Reed and other receivers have missed time. Golden has the reliability to be a 2-WR set starter immediately, and his athletic upside is quite high, too. What's great about both situations is the HC/OC/OL infrastructure that's in place. I really would be surprised if either play face planted. Any time they are available in Round 6+, they are targets.

3. Robust RB Teams Beat Zero RB Teams

Let's make the definition as RB count through Round 5. I'll take 3 RBs over 0 RBs. I've written about this here, but long story short, the more the WR price tags go up, the better the RBs project in this Round 4-6 range when teams are building out their flexes. The RBs in this range straight up project for more points in the flex, and now they're going later than they were years ago. All of this is happening as the NFL transitions into more RB-heavy game plans with the influence of the two-high defensive shell. If you are scared of the olds reaching the age cliff, there's new RB talent to choose from: Ashton Jeanty, Bucky Irving, Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, etc. After this tier is up, the RBs head into full-blown committee roles, while the drop-off in WR talent is marginal as the elite target earners are gone by 30th overall.

4. The Round 6-8 WRs Go Nuts

This ties into the two previous blurbs, but there is so much talent in this range and it comes right after the RB talent drops off. I'll go rapid fire on each WR: Jakobi Meyers: WR23 per-game without Adams. Adds OC + QB. Jordan Addison: WR18 last year. Regression baked in post-suspension price. Stefon Diggs: Way ahead of ACL schedule. Little target comp. Emeka Egbuka: Scroll up. Matthew Golden: Scroll up. Josh Downs: 65 YPG, 2.4 YPRR, 30% TPRR in 7 games without AR15. Jayden Higgins: Post-Bye Rookie Bump candidate. Love Stroud. Darnell Mooney: WR34 last year, only dropping for minor shoulder injury. Michael Pittman: 101-1123-3 in 17 games before last year's Week 6 injury.

5. The Worst Rookie Picks Are The Round 2 WRs

The pre-draft narrative was the depth of the WR class wasn't very good. Well, the training camp reports on the entire 2nd round group have been highly suspect. Jayden Higgins is easily my favorite of the bunch, but he's not promised an early-season role and the Texans are at least giving Christian Kirk 2-WR-set love from the jump. Luther Burden has theoretical upside, but he's been a 2nd-stringer and slot-only player in an offense that will use 2-WR sets at a high clip. Even when he flips Olamide Zaccheus, will be only run 66% of routes? Maybe. Tre' Harris was a boom-bust prospect, who lost his early-season role to another rookie and he's been playing Z receiver in the preseason, which is the position Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen split up. Jack Bech lost out to another rookie and is playing on the outside, which is where he was at his worst on his college tape. There is typically hits out of this grouping, but this is not looking like the year. There's a chance that 3rd-rounder Kyle Williams is better than most of these cats. For what it's worth, I had Williams ranked ahead of all of them pre-draft. He can play.

6. The Best Rookie Picks In Round 10+ Rounds Are...

Colston Loveland: His fluidity in the route and catch point is outstanding. He looks like a receiver over the middle, and Ben Johnson agrees. Even in the preseason, they split him as the isolated receiver in a 3x1 set. They also manufactured an underneath target to him. Without an established top dog, Loveland emerges in December as one of the best tight ends in the NFL. Stay patient because he has to unseat Cole Kmet in 1-TE sets early on.

Cam Skattebo: The college legend was my pre-draft RB4. He is physical and can catch passes. His short-area burst is good, too. Where he wins is exactly where we want him to win for fantasy: goal line and as a receiver. Skattebo had 99th percentile receiving yards per game among drafted RBs since 2000, and the Giants already subbed Tyrone Tracy out at the goal line in the preseason, even with Skattebo out of the lineup. Over time, Skattebo should steal the valuable touches. I see flex value by Halloween. Buy the dip now that he's returned to practice (hamstring).

Mason Taylor: A clear top-50 prospect in the NFL Draft for his receiving capabilities, Taylor's ADP dropped multiple rounds with a camp ankle sprain, but he returned quickly and has an open route to real volume. The Jets are trotting out Josh Reynolds as the WR2 right now. They don't have a WR3. The idea is Taylor could be 2nd in targets with room for a big target workload if something ever happened to Garrett Wilson. Taylor moves well on tape.

DJ Giddens: His college tape showed some juice on the ground and capable receiving skills on pass downs. He'll spell Jonathan Taylor, but if JT were to have another ankle sprain for example, the Colts' offseason moves signal that it'll be Giddens in a very valuable role. The depth behind Giddens has dissipated throughout preseason games, and this Daniel Jones offense will be checking the ball down frequently. He'd be a top-30 RB weekly at least.

Tahj Brooks: The Zack Moss release paved his way onto the team, and it was clear from his preseason duties that the team is auditioning him for the Chase Brown role. That's between-tackles rushing and schemed-up receptions. Brooks handled himself well then and in camp. If Brown were to miss time, it won't be Samaje Perine. It'll be Brooks, who has the bellcow college history and size to handle major work. Dare I say he could be this year's Chase Brown if things break his way.

7. Ambiguous Backfields Stay Ambiguous

Jaguars: The OL underwhelms, and Liam Coen tries to keep all three backs fresh throughout the year. Travis Etienne scores the most fantasy points but finishes outside the top-24 RBs. He gets most of the pass-game work and about half of the early down work. Tank Bigsby originally gets early-down work as the 1b and vultures some goal-line work, but he offers nothing in the pass-game department and isn't good enough to ice Etienne or Bhayshul Tuten. The rookie plays more as the season progresses, but he's not as trusted as Bucky Irving was in this offense. Winner: The drafters who went outside in July and August instead.

Commanders: With Brian Robinson removed, the Commanders divvy up early-down work between all three players. Austin Ekeler, Bill Croskey-Merritt (41.5-inch vert), and Chris Rodriguez (5'11/217) all complement each other in different ways: receiving, speed, and size. The latter are too inexperienced to be thrusted in full-time roles on a contending team, and Ekeler is too limited on the ground to separate despite being the main pass catcher. As a reminder, Deebo Samuel will steal touches and Jayden Daniels can run things in himself, too.

Cowboys: Javonte Williams doesn't have the vision and speed to be an effective early-down player, but he can eat snaps in pass protection. That makes it difficult for unreliable 5th-round rookie Jaydon Blue to carve out a meaningful role with his receiving skills. Miles Sanders has some early-down explosiveness, but he mostly isn't a goal-line option for size and vision reasons. The Cowboys will pass like crazy, use a fullback, and sprinkle in WR Kavontae Turpin. Throw in the threat of 7th-round rookie Phil Mafah, and this is as messy as it gets. Just draft George Pickens in Round 4/5.

Texans: Joe Mixon's foot injury costs him all of September, and he's not the same player upon returning. The new staff uses Dameon Pierce and Nick Chubb evenly on early downs while Mixon attempts to heal. Pierce looks better as the sample size grows, but both backs lose the valuable receiving work to Woody Marks and Dare Ogunbowale. Instead of this part of the offense being the focus, OC Nick Caley leans into his two best players: C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins. Heavily.

8. The Chiefs And 49ers Are The Best "Expensive" Stacks

Everything comes down to cost, and right now, the Chiefs are priced as if last year is the default outcome. If we go back to 2018-2022, the Chiefs will destroy in best ball. The best teams historically have been the stacked teams in offenses with 40+ passing touchdowns. That was the Bengals last year, the Bucs with Tom Brady, and so on. When these teams hit, the QB brings along two or more pass catchers, and it's very difficult to match. Getting Patrick Mahomes in Round 8, Travis Kelce in Round 9, and then his top WR (Xavier Worthy or Rashee Rice) in Round 4/5 is super enticing, as it still allows for flexibility with any combination of players in the first three rounds. As a bonus, Isiah Pacheco was one of my four players I projected to climb in ADP on June 5th. He's gone from 87th up to 71st overall. I still like him at the new prices with the depth chart behind him looking very weak.

The 49ers are also bouncing back with suppressed ADPs. Any time Christian McCaffrey is available in the back half of Round 1 seems like a gift if our goal is to increase our odds of coming in 1st place in our leagues. That happens often, despite CMC's full health status this training camp. George Kittle is Kittle. But the real fun is taking shots on mid-round WRs. Jauan Jennings has been my favorite click after he had a 41% target share without Deebo Samuel last year. That equated to a strong 82 YPG in his 8 games above 70% snaps. Ricky Pearsall has climbed ahead of Jauan recently. He was only fine last year in his return from gunshot, but his chemistry with Brock Purdy is reportedly night and day from last year when Pearsall was very underwhelming against zone. I mix in Isaac Guerendo in the 130s, and even Brandon Aiyuk is a target in the 120s after everyone knows his season will start sometime around Halloween instead of near Labor Day. Long story short, the 49ers are top-5 in points with the easiest schedule on deck. Don't fade Shanahan.

9. The Giants Are Late-Round Winners

This team seems underrated. Their DL is elite. Their OL is healthier with better depth. And the QB room was upgraded thrice in one offseason. Russell Wilson has been memed into underrated territory himself. He can still throw a great deep ball, and he's accurate underneath, too. Jaxson Dart will push him because he was an over-analyzed prospect who checks boxes in mobility, accuracy, arm strength, and even analytically. The QB play should be competent, so anyone using 2024 Giants numbers to project this unit is off target. Darius Slayton is my most-drafted player this year. He's a deep ball winner coming off a $22M guaranteed contract extension offseason. Daniel Jones wouldn't and couldn't throw deep. Both QBs can. Theo Johnson is also a great pick in the last round. He was a full-time player as a rookie before a foot injury ended his season. He's fully healthy and will once again be a full-time player. That's hard to find. Typically when an elite athlete with elite size is running all those routes, there's excited. That's okay for us. More Slayton and Johnson for me at least. My favorite season-long win total: Giants o5.5.

10. NFL Scoring Is Up Again

There are three reasons for this. First, the rule change. The new kickoff rule is incentivizing some returns, which is likely to increase scoring across the league as some drives have a chance to start near the 50. There also could be more fumbles on the receiving side of this if kickers can master the skip kick. A fumble is an immediate red zone trip, too. The second reason is the bottoming out of the two-high shell. It's been an effective switch by defenses, but the trend of smaller LBs and DTs reaches a breaking point as more teams establish the run with better efficiency. Down come the safeties, and up comes the scoring. Lastly, the top QBs are all in their primes. That's not an exaggeration. Patrick Mahomes (29 years old), Lamar Jackson (28), Josh Allen (29), Joe Burrow (28), Jayden Daniels (24), Justin Herbert (27), and Jalen Hurts (27) were my top-7 QBs after watching their games this offseason, and look at all their ages. Good luck defending them now.

11. NFL Standings Predictions

• AFC North: BAL (13-4), CIN (9-8), PIT (8-9), CLE (4-13)

• AFC East: BUF (11-6), MIA (7-10), NE (7-10), NYJ (5-12)

• AFC South: HOU (11-6), JAX (8-9), IND (6-11), TEN (5-12)

• AFC West: KC (12-5), DEN (11-6), LAC (9-8), LV (7-10)

• NFC North: GB (11-6), DET (10-7), MIN (9-8), CHI (9-8)

• NFC East: PHI (13-4), WAS (9-8), DAL (8-9), NYG (8-9)

• NFC South: TB (9-8), CAR (7-10), ATL (7-10), NO (4-13)

• NFC West: SF (11-6), SEA (9-8), LAR (8-9), ARI (7-10)

• Championships: BAL beat KC. PHI beat GB.

• Super Bowl: Ravens 27, Eagles 24.

12. NFL Awards Predictions

• MVP: Patrick Mahomes (+700) over Lamar Jackson

• OPOY: Ja'Marr Chase (+850) over CeeDee Lamb

• DPOY: Nick Bosa (+1500) over Will Anderson

• OROY: Travis Hunter (+1000) over Ashton Jeanty

• DROY: Adbul Carter (+225) over Mike Green

• CPOTY: Christian McCaffrey (+370) over Aidan Hutchinson

• COTY: Liam Coen (+1200) over Ben Johnson

• POTY: Lane Johnson over Trent Williams