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Favorite Game: The Dolphins @49ers features a 46.5 total, which is 4th highest on this slate. This game is littered with playmakers on both teams and has the ability to be a shootout. It’s not the teams that ignite the game environment, it's the players in the game... For the Dolphins,Tyreek Hill is the most expensive piece to this game with a 7.7 ADP. He can be easily double stacked with Jaylen Waddle(20.7) and Tua Tagovailoa(33.1). A unique play for the Dolphins, is RB Jeff Wilson, who is going overlooked in drafts with a 35.7 ADP and is easy leverage off their passing attack... The 49ers have both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samual questionable with injuries as of right now. This has led to suppressed ADPs, with CMC at 16.8 and Deebo all the way down at 31.3. If they both play I believe their ADPs should be higher than what they are currently. George Kittle is the 3rd tight end off the board with a 22.4 ADP. We know the ceiling that Kittle poses, and he is the best chance to match a Klece/Andrews ceiling game. Brandon Ayiuk is a leverage play for the 49ers with a 35.7 ADP... This game is easily stackable because of the ADPs. Tua double stacks are easily attainable, and can have any 49er as a bring back option. You can stack this game up in almost any combination possible, which may lead it to being a bit chalky. So don’t be afraid to get unique with your stacks or the remaining spots on your roster.
Expensive Stack: Jalen Hurts(11.5) & A.J. Brown(12.2) is my favorite stack of the week. With A.J. Brown playing his former team, I for one am expecting heavy volume his way. The Titans own the 3rd highest Run Defense (per PFF) and own the #1 Rush DVOA in the NFL. It makes sense for the Eagles to attack them through the air and let Jalen Hurts run when needed.
Cheap Stack: Aaron Rodgers(35.9) & Christian Watson(32.4) This one is strictly about leverage. Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears and is QB15 in ADP. The Bears own the 28th worst Coverage Grade (per PFF) and the 31st worst Pass DVOA in the NFL. It’s a fun skinny stack to mix in your portfolio and did I mention he owns the Bears?
Player at ADP: Tyreek Hill(7.7) If it wasn’t for early week “Q tag” he had next to his name, I think Tyreek would be going in the Davante/JJ range, maybe even the #1 WR on the slate. The Dolphins own the 6th highest PROE (per ETR), so we know how they want to move the ball.
Late Round One-Off: Terry McClaurin(35.7) The recency bias is hitting hard with F1, but a GREAT matchup against the divisional rival giants has me in love with him as a leverage play. The Giants own the 31st worst Coverage Grade (per PFF) and the 27th worst Pass DVOA in the NFL. Wheels up for Terry F1 as a great leverage play.
Player Largely Undrafted: Isiah Pacheco(35.6) I love Pacheco as a leverage off of the whole KC-CIN game. He has taken the reins in the backfield and is on one of the best offenses in the league.
Player To Fade at ADP: Keenan Allen(25.9) If Mike Williams sits he looks a bit better, but I like WRs near him in ADP and think they offer more upside than Allen.
Favorite Game: Chiefs @ Bengals This game features the highest total on the slate at 52.5 points. Kelce is the consensus 1.01 and for good reason. He is lapping his peers in fantasy points per game and offers slate smashing upside. He is very difficult but not impossible to stack with Patrick Mahomes, who is a great pick independent of having Kelce. Juju Smith-Schuster, having only logged 28 snaps (38%) last game against the Rams, turned in a fantasy score of 5.3 points and now wears an ADP of 34.6... The Bengals are very easy to stack in drafts due to the strength of the slate providing value throughout the draft board. You can choose your own adventure on bring backs or no bring backs while diversifying the teammates you take with Joe Burrow... As a point of leverage against the field, I recommend mixing in low owned players from this game, such as Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Tyler Boyd, Isiah Pacheco, and Hayden Hurst. Allowing yourself access to a shootout with players that are largely undrafted by the field is an excellent way to separate yourself and create an efficient path to first place.
Players to Fade at ADP
Saquon Barkley (17.3) ... With better options behind him relative ADP as of Tuesday evening, Saquon is not someone I have made a priority to draft through my 30 completed drafts thus far. I prefer Ken Walker (20.7) and Travis Etienne (28.3) to Saquon this week.
Josh Jacobs (8.2) ... To be clear, I think Josh Jacobs is a top 5 play at running back this week against the Chargers at home. The concern however is that Jacobs is nursing a calf strain, and the team has already set expectations that he will be a “DNP” all week. While he just combined for 303 yards a week ago, he was a late injury report addition with a calf injury, and is apparently still bothered by this issue. Anecdotally, drafters do not like to click a player who has a combination of a [Q] tag and a DNP report under their name. I expect Jacobs to slide if there is any shadow of a doubt of him playing this week. You can likely draft Jacobs beyond his ADP in most lobbies until more optimistic news is released.
Low Ownership Stacks
Brandon Aiyuk as a bring back with the Dolphins
Trevor Lawrence paired with Jaguars and/or Lions
Justin Fields paired with Christian Watson
Jeff Wilson paired with a combination of CMC, Deebo, or Aiyuk.
ADP Risers and Fallers Each week we track the ADP trends of the Battle Royale contest from the first draft until the last. All the data is available in our free discord channel. Shoutout to Chris (@beisbol) and Chad (@ChadMaschke) for collecting and compiling all the data each week.
Battle Royale Positional Overview
QB: This is hands down the deepest QB pool we’ve had on a main slate this season. As a result, the prices of many elite talents are suppressed (Lamar, Tua, Fields) and many other viable options are going almost entirely undrafted (Geno, Cousins, Rodgers). By my count there are at least 15 playable options so don’t be afraid to pass on some mid-tier draft “value” and get weird with late-stacks. Unique points, scored in unique combinations, are the ultimate separator in large-field contests. Justin Fields is currently the best price-adjusted play on the slate.
RB: Much like QB, RB is incredibly deep this week so I’m largely focused on waiting and scooping “value” as it falls. Nick Chubb is the biggest decision point on the slate. He’s undoubtedly in a “smash spot,” as the kids like to say, but his price reflects that. My cardinal rule with Chubb is “he can always break a slate, but I’ll never be overweight.” Regardless of his talent and matchup - one of the most efficient rusher/tackle breaker verse the 2nd worst run defense/worst tackling team in football - the price tag is too rich for a non-pass catching back who only plays ~55% of snaps AND is playing alongside a QB who hasn’t played football in nearly 2 years. This is by far my favorite position to wait on. So Chubb, “that’s gonna be a no for me dawg.”
WR: Part of my stance on Nick Chubb is derived from the state of the WR position this week. The reason I call him the biggest decision point on the slate has less to do with him and more to do with the WRs you pass on to obtain him. The replacement value of passing on Chubb is infinitely greater at RB than that offered at the WR position by passing on the elite 1st/2nd round WRs. ... In my eyes, there’s a distinct tier of “break the slate” WRs and for the most part I’m struggling to thrust any non-WR not named Kelce, Ekeler and Andrews over that group. That group being: Adams, Jefferson, Hill, Chase, AJB and ARSB. I’m taking as many of these 9 players as possible and then mixing RBs and stacks off them with the rest of my picks each draft. I’ll be overweight the high-ADP WRs and underweight every other high-ADP player not named Kelce.
TE: If it’s not first-round Kelce or third-round Andrews, it’s a last-round dart throw. This is the most top heavy position on the slate and Kelce is deserving of the 1.01 pick in basically every draft because of that. He’s the highest VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) target on the slate. In an ideal situation, Mahomes falls back to the Kelce drafter but it’s very rare, for good reason. Outside of that dream scenario, TE is just a hunt for touchdowns so I’m looking to back-stack them with my QB or utilize them as runbacks in good game environments. Cole Kmet is the one last-round dart throw I may windup overweight too with Justin Fields now practicing in full.
Below “The Winks Lineᵀᴹ” Favorites
“The Winks Lineᵀᴹ” represents the tier break between players being drafted at a near 100% frequency (estimated based on ADP and positional limitations) and those who are not.
For instance, in 6-player drafts, only 6 QBs can be selected (no one can select multiple) so “The Winks Lineᵀᴹ” line for the QB position is set between QB6 and QB7. QBs with an ADP of QB6 and above are, in theory, drafted at a distinctly higher frequency than those below it and vice versa. The cut-off for QB is near exact because it is the only true “onesie” position on the slate because the other 3 are flex eligible. For the other positions, we set “The Winks Lineᵀᴹ” between: RB12-13, WR18-19, and TE6-7, in terms of ADP. Theoretically this makes sense because those thresholds represent the maximum at each position that can be drafted in a given draft but in actual practice given the fluidity of the flex position and the changing dynamics of any given slate, “The Winks Lineᵀᴹ” will fluctuate.
TL;DR Players who fall below “The Winks Lineᵀᴹ” at a given position will be lower owned and represent leverage over the field making them the ideal late-round one-off draft targets (re: sleepers). These are some of our favorites:
Justin Fields- This won’t last after he practiced in full on Thursday. I fully expect him and Lamar’s ADPs to flip by Saturday so go get it while the getting is good.
Geno Smith - The Seahawks are 2nd in PROE over the last 5 weeks and SEA draws an Aaron Donald-less LAR defense. As a bonus, this is a highly concentrated offense where both the pass-catchers are free on a team that plays with tempo.
Jared Goff- Don’t look now but the Lions have the 2nd highest team total on the slate and they’re playing at home vs a bad Jags team. At some point Goff’s pass-catchers will stop falling down at the 1 and those Jamaal scores will funnel in other directions.
Dameon Pierce - Old enough to remember when he was setting the league on fire and was gamescript proof. The Texans franchise has never wanted to win a game more than this one this Sunday.
David Montgomery - Re: Hayden’s sicko charts. The Packers are 29th in run DVOA and have given up close to 30 pts per game over the last 3 weeks. Bet on the volume in a highly concentrated offense with Fields likely to return. He’s DFS cash game viable for good reason.
D’Andre Swift - The ultimate bet on talent in one of the best games on the slate. Usage uptick last week and first week he hasn’t been on the practice report since ‘Nam.
Tyler Boyd - All the leverage over 100% owned Chase and Higgins. When the field zigs, sometimes we have to zag. Counter to common perception, his advantaged metrics uptick with Chase on the field.
Mike Williams - This one is trending in the wrong direction but I’m not giving up hope. He’s an elite talent in a great situation and represents some afternoon swap equity if he doesn’t play.
Terry McLaurin - Buy the dip. Flat out elite football player who Heinicke has tunnel vision for. He’s his first read. Every. Time.
Cole Kmet - If Fields returns, who else is going to throw to? But for real, he’s played 90% snaps every week since Week 3 and is 2nd on the team in targets behind a dude who just got placed on IR.
Greg Dulcich - Russell Wilson can’t keep this up forever, right? Bet on the elite usage, route running and draft talent. If DEN ever starts scoring touchdowns again, he’s as good a bet as any.