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NFL Playoffs Best Ball Strategy For Underdog Fantasy (2022-23)

Dec 9th 2022

Hayden Winks

Underdog Fantasy has dropped my favorite fantasy sports game — NFL Playoffs Best Ball. You draft today for points only scored in the NFL Playoffs, with the final tournament prizes being handed out based on Super Bowl scoring. If your team doesn't have Super Bowl players, you won't win the top prizes.

These are quick 6-person drafts with 10 rounds, so 60 players are drafted. The starting lineup consists of 1QB, 1RB, 2WR/TE, and 1 RB/WR/TE flex spot with 5 bench spots. The general guide for roster construction is 1–2QB, 3–4RB, 4–6WR/TE. Cool? Cool.

NFL Playoffs Best Ball Strategy

Rankings are mostly a useless exercise in this format because we are contingent-based drafting the entire time. In other words, each pick we make eliminates chunks of the player pool if we’re maximizing for projected points in our hypothetical Super Bowl matchups. For example, if we draft Stefon Diggs in Round 1, we should prioritize drafting his Bills teammates (and NFC counterparts) in this draft in an attempt to get as many points in a Buffalo hypothetical Super Bowl. Because the Underdog Fantasy payouts are based on Super Bowl scores, we really should only be focusing on maximizing upside in the Super Bowl.

Of course, there’s one caveat to this — the bye week. If we fully stack the Chiefs and Eagles, then we aren’t going to advance past the first round of the tournament. If stacking both teams together, we'll need a full starting lineup for the first round.

NFL Playoffs If Favorites Win Out

Current Odds Of Going To The 2022–23 Super Bowl

One minor edge is to look at odds of winning the conference (not the Super Bowl) because the Super Bowl loser will still give us the fantasy points we need in the Super Bowl. Here are the implied odds of winning the AFC or NFC based on Circa’s Sportsbook along with the average draft positions on Underdog Fantasy:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (38% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: NFC contenders (SF, DAL, MIN, etc.) ... Highly projected players from Round 1 (Saquon, Walker, Jefferson, Dalvin, DK, Godwin, Evans) for bye week purposes ... Won't face BUF or CIN until the AFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Low-seeded AFC teams (LAC, BAL, JAX) ... Have to be careful with PHI stacks due to byes

  • QB2 Patrick Mahomes (2.6 ADP)

  • WR/TE3 Travis Kelce (8.5) --> Kinda possible to QB/WR stack now

  • RB3 Jerick McKinnon (16.4)

  • WR/TE14 JuJu Smith-Schuster (28.0)

  • RB12 Isiah Pacheco (39.9)

  • WR/TE22 Kadarius Toney (42.8)

  • WR/TE30 Marquez Valdes-Scantling (55.6)

  • Largely undrafted: WR/TE33 Mecole Hardman, RB22 Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR/TE53 Justin Watson, WR/TE58 Skyy Moore

2. Philadelphia Eagles (36% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: AFC contenders (BUF, CIN, etc.) ... Highly projected players from Round 1 (Ekeler, Keenan, Herbert, Etienne, Kirk, Andrews, Tyreek, Waddle) for bye week purposes ... Won't face SF until NFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Low-seeded NFC teams (SEA, NYG, DAL) ... Have to be careful with KC stacks due to byes

  • QB3 Jalen Hurts (4.4 ADP)

  • WR/TE4 A.J. Brown (9.9) --> Possible to QB/WR stack

  • WR/TE9 DeVonta Smith (15.7)

  • RB6 Miles Sanders (22.0)

  • WR/TE15 Dallas Goedert (30.7)

  • Largely undrafted: RB18 Kenneth Gainwell, WR/TE39 Quez Watkins

3. Buffalo Bills (33% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: NFC contenders (PHI, SF, DAL, MIN, etc) ... Won't face KC until AFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Playing MIA first and likely CIN second

  • QB1 Josh Allen (1.2 ADP) --> The clear 1.01 imo

  • WR/TE2 Stefon Diggs (6.7) --> Difficult to QB/WR stack. Do you want to enter a Bills' SB without Allen? Your NFC QB better be good imo.

  • WR/TE11 Gabe Davis (19.4)

  • RB8 Devin Singletary (26.5)

  • RB11 James Cook (35.9)

  • WR/TE20 Dawson Knox (38.4)

  • WR/TE24 Isaiah McKenzie (46.2)

  • Largely undrafted: WR/TE52 Cole Beasley, RB25 Nyheim Hines

4. San Francisco 49ers (33% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: AFC contenders (KC, BUF, CIN, etc.) ... Won't face PHI until NFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Playing SEA first and likely MIN second

  • RB1 Christian McCaffrey (3.0 ADP) --> By far the top RB

  • WR/TE7 Deebo Samuel (12.5)

  • WR/TE10 George Kittle (17.1)

  • WR/TE12 Brandon Aiyuk (23.3)

  • QB6 Brock Purdy (27.0)

  • RB15 Elijah Mitchell (53.1) --> great dart throw

  • Largely undrafted: WR/TE42 Jauan Jennings, QB15 Jimmy Garoppolo

I'd argue there is a tier break here.

5. Cincinnati Bengals (18% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: NFC contenders (PHI, SF, DAL, MIN, etc.) ... Won't face KC until NFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Playing BAL and likely BUF second

  • WR/TE1 Ja'Marr Chase (5.1 ADP)

  • QB4 Joe Burrow (8.5) --> Possible to QB/WR stack

  • WR/TE7 Tee Higgins (13.4) --> ADP riser

  • RB4 Joe Mixon (18.6)

  • WR/TE19 Tyler Boyd (39.4)

  • Largely undrafted: RB17 Samaje Perine, WR/TE33 Hayden Hurst

6. Dallas Cowboys (17% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: AFC contenders (KC, BUF, CIN, etc.) ... Won't face MIN (or likely SF) until NFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Playing TB first and likely PHI second

  • WR/TE5 CeeDee Lamb (10.5 ADP)

  • RB5 Tony Pollard (20.2)

  • QB5 Dak Prescott (24.7)

  • RB10 Ezekiel Elliott (33.4) --> Undervalued

  • WR/TE21 Dalton Schultz (38.9)

  • WR/TE26 Michael Gallup (50.6)

  • Largely undrafted: WR/TE40 T.Y. Hilton, WR/TE52 Noah Brown

I'd argue there is a tier break here.

7. Los Angeles Chargers (9% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: NFC contenders (PHI, SF, DAL, MIN, etc.) ... Won't face CIN/BUF until AFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Playing JAX first and likely KC second

  • RB2 Austin Ekeler (16.0 ADP)

  • WR/TE13 Keenan Allen (26.7)

  • QB7 Justin Herbert (31.6) --> Possible to QB/WR stack

  • WR/TE17 Mike Williams (38.4) --> Questionable to play. Thanks, Staley.

  • WR/TE32 Joshua Palmer (58.1) --> Will rise a bit.

  • Largely undrafted: WR/TE37 Gerald Everett

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: AFC contenders (KC, BUF, CIN, etc.) ... Won't face MIN (or likely SF) until NFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Playing DAL first and PHI/MIN/SF second

  • WR/TE16 Chris Godwin (34.1 ADP)

  • WR/TE18 Mike Evans (37.8)

  • QB9 Tom Brady (48.8) --> Possible to QB/WR stack

  • RB14 Leonard Fournette (50.3)

  • Largely undrafted: RB20 Rachaad White, WR/TE48 Russell Gage

9. Minnesota Vikings (7% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: AFC contenders (KC, BUF, CIN, etc.) ... Won't face PHI/TB/DAL until NFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Playing NYG first and likely SF second

  • WR/TE6 Justin Jefferson (11.2 ADP)

  • RB7 Dalvin Cook (25.4) --> RB is bad, so I like this

  • QB8 Kirk Cousins (42.9) --> Possible to QB/WR stack

  • WR/TE23 T.J. Hockenson (43.9)

  • WR/TE31 Adam Thielen (57.0)

  • Largely undrafted: WR/TE38 K.J. Osborn, RB23 Alexander Mattison

I'd argue there is a tier break here, enough where I'll only list odds to make playoffs rather than win the Super Bowl.

10. Baltimore Ravens (6% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: NFC contenders (PHI, SF, DAL, MIN, etc.) ... Likely won't face BUF until AFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Playing CIN first and likely KC second

  • WR/TE25 Mark Andrews (46.4)

  • QB10 Lamar Jackson (51.2 ADP) --> Seems questionable to play

  • RB16 J.K. Dobbins (56.2)

  • Largely undrafted: WR/TE51 Demarcus Robinson, RB28 Gus Edwards

11. Jacksonville Jaguars (5% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: NFC contenders (PHI, SF, DAL, MIN, etc.) ... Won't face CIN (or likely BUF) until AFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Playing LAC first and likely KC second

  • RB13 Travis Etienne (45.1 ADP)

  • WR/TE28 Christian Kirk (51.5)

  • QB11 Trevor Lawrence (53.9)

  • Largely undrafted: WR/TE35 Zay Jones, WR/TE41 Evan Engram

12. Seattle Seahawks (4% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: AFC contenders (BUF, KC, CIN, etc.) ... Won't face MIN until NFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Playing SF first and likely PHI second

  • Great additions for KC/PHI bye teams

  • Largely undrafted: WR/TE50 DK Metcalf, RB24 Kenneth Walker, QB17 Geno Smith

13. New York Giants (3% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: AFC contenders (BUF, KC, CIN, etc.) ... Won't face SF until NFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Playing MIN first and likely PHI second

  • RB10 Saquon Barkley (33.3 ADP) --> Great addition for KC/PHI bye stacks

  • Largely undrafted: QB12 Daniel Jones

14. Miami Dolphins (3% odds of going to the Super Bowl)

Teams to stack with: AFC contenders (KC, BUF, CIN, etc.) ... Won't face CIN or BUF until AFC Championship when it's hardest to advance in the tournament

Teams to not stack with: Playing BUF first and KC second

  • WR/TE27 Tyreek Hill (51.4 ADP) --> Great addition for KC/PHI bye stacks

  • Largely undrafted: WR/TE34 Jaylen Waddle, QB13 Tua Tagovailoa (very questionable), RB24 Raheem Mostert, RB26 Jeff Wilson