Two players who play the same fantasy position can (and do) have completely different profiles based on age, how they're used in the offense, and what their stats say about them. These differences are why Josh Norris and I tend to lean on player evaluations on the Underdog Football Show. It's important to understand how players win because a certain type of player will fill your best ball roster better or worse than another. This column investigates if these different player archetypes are being targeted by a certain type of best ball drafter -- the Robust RBer vs. the Zero RBer.
The table above shows which player was the most-commonly drafted in each round, at each position, and by each type of build. “Robust RB” was defined as having at least three (3) RBs through Round 4, and “Heavy WR” was having at least three (3) WRs through Round 4. I’ll call Heavy WR “Zero RB” throughout the column because it’s close enough and is the more common title. Plus it's good for clicks.
This is very basic analysis, but when it came to player takes and/or luck last year, the robust RB bros scored more points at QB, at RB, and at WR independent of roster construction. The lone exception was at TE. Of course, the samples here are tiny and there was a lot of overlap in players, but this is something to consider when analyzing last year’s roster construction data, which certainly favored RB-early teams in the aggregate. The strategy itself may or may not be better in general, but the Robust RB teams simply landed on more of the high-scoring players compared to Zero RB.
Even if those averages are descriptive, the player archetypes below are worth studying for two main reasons. First, when you’re debating which player to select in each build, you have an idea of what’s often-duplicated. Two, you can use this info to know which type of player your league mates are about to draft at the turn, so you know if it's time to reach slightly. With that, let’s dig in.
Round 8: A.J. Dillon - 9th RB by Robust RBers vs. 4th RB by Zero RBers
Round 9: A.J. Dillon - 9th RB by Robust RBers vs. 3rd RB by Zero RBers
Round 10: Tony Pollard - 6th RB by Robust RBers vs. 2nd RB by Zero RBers
Round 11: Tony Pollard - 7th RB by Robust RBers vs. 4th RB by Zero RBers
Round 11: Latavius Murray - 6th RB by Robust RBers vs. 2nd RB by Zero RBers
Round 14: Damien Williams - 9th RB by Robust RBers vs. 2nd RB by Zero RBers
Round 16: Chuba Hubbard - 1st RB by Robust RBers vs. 5th RB by Zero RBers
Round 17: Darrynton Evans - 3rd RB by Robust RBers vs. 1st RB by Zero RBers
There’s no doubt that the Zero RB bros are trying to hoard the insurance backs in the middle rounds. Dillon and Pollard were clear bets against two to the top-10 backs last year, so it makes total sense as to why these teams would be targeting them. Latavius Murray – if we can remember – was the Saints’ insurance back when he was being targeted by the Zero RBers as a bet against Alvin Kamara.
Round 7: Chase Edmonds - 2nd RB by Robust RBers vs. 1st RB by Zero RBers
Round 10: Tony Pollard - 6th RB by Robust RBers vs. 2nd RB by Zero RBers
Round 11: Tony Pollard - 7th RB by Robust RBers vs. 4th RB by Zero RBers
Round 12: Nyheim Hines - 2nd RB by Robust RBers vs. 1st RB by Zero RBers
Round 15: James White - 5th RB by Robust RBers vs. 1st RB by Zero RBers
Round 16: Giovani Bernard - 7th RB by Robust RBers vs. 2nd RB by Zero RBers
Round 17: Giovani Bernard - 6th RB by Robust RBers vs. 3rd RB by Zero RBers
Round 17: Jerick McKinnon - 8th RB by Robust RBers vs. 3rd RB by Zero RBers
Round 18: Jerick McKinnon - 5th RB by Robust RBers vs. 2nd RB by Zero RBers
When the Zero RB bros aren’t drafting insurance backs, they’re targeting the pass-catching backs. It doesn’t matter if they were young, old, or somewhere in between. If the back is tiny and plays on third downs, they’ll be on more Zero RB teams. This is because Zero RB was a strategy built in the full-PPR streets. I have my doubt that these types have nearly as much value in half-PPR best ball, however.
Round 5: Mike Davis - 1st RB by Robust RBers vs. 1st RB by Zero RBers
Round 9: James Conner - 7th RB by Robust RBers vs. 4th RB by Zero RBers
Round 10: James Conner - 1st RB by Robust RBers vs. 1st RB by Zero RBers
Round 9: Leonard Fournette - 4th RB by Robust RBers vs. 9th RB by Zero RBers
Round 10: Leonard Fournette - 5th RB by Robust RBers vs. 8th RB by Zero RBers
Round 10: Melvin Gordon - 2nd RB by Robust RBers vs. 4th RB by Zero RBers
Round 11: David Johnson - 2nd RB by Robust RBers vs. 10th RB by Zero RBers
Round 12: David Johnson - 1st RB by Robust RBers vs. 7th RB by Zero RBers
Round 14: Phillip Lindsay - 2nd RB by Robust RBers vs. 8th RB by Zero RBers
Round 15: Phillip Lindsay - 1st RB by Robust RBers vs. 6th RB by Zero RBers
Round 17: Malcolm Brown - 5th RB by Robust RBers vs. 6th RB by Zero RBers
Round 18: Marlon Mack - 1st RB by Robust RBers vs. 10th RB by Zero RBers
For the most part, the people drafting the older/injured/bad running backs are the Robust RB bros. That sounds bad, but it could be argued that these backs’ ADPs have fallen far enough on Underdog Fantasy in particular that they are totally fine picks. The other angle here is that these backs profiled as potential goal-line backs, while the Zero RB bros were busy aiming for the passing-down types.
Round 5: Travis Etienne - 3rd RB by Robust RBers vs. 2nd RB by Zero RBers
Round 5: Javonte Williams - 5th RB by Robust RBers vs. 5th RB by Zero RBers
Round 6: Javonte Williams - 1st RB by Robust RBers vs. 1st RB by Zero RBers
Round 6: Trey Sermon - 4th RB by Robust RBers vs. 4th RB by Zero RBers
Round 7: Trey Sermon - 1st RB by Robust RBers vs. 2nd RB by Zero RBers
Round 8: Michael Carter - 1st RB by Robust RBers vs. 2nd RB by Zero RBers
Round 16: Kenneth Gainwell - 4th RB by Robust RBers vs. 6th RB by Zero RBers
Round 17: Kenneth Gainwell - 1st RB by Robust RBers vs. 2nd RB by Zero RBers
Round 17: Chuba Hubbard - 2nd RB by Robust RBers vs. 4th RB by Zero RBers
Round 18: Chuba Hubbard - 7th RB by Robust RBers vs. 13th RB by Zero RBers
To my surprise, Robust RB drafters drafted the rookie backs slightly more often than Zero RBers in most rounds, especially later in the draft. The only exception is Travis Etienne, and that is extremely marginal and possibly because he profiled as a pass-catching back. At the end of the day, everybody is on the rookie backs.
Round 4: Ja’Marr Chase - 6th WR by Robust RBers vs. 6th WR by Zero RBers
Round 5: Ja’Marr Chase - 10th WR by Robust RBers vs. 9th WR by Zero RBers
Round 7: DeVonta Smith - 2nd WR by Robust RBers vs. 7th WR by Zero RBers
Round 8: Jaylen Waddle - 3rd WR by Robust RBers vs. 4th WR by Zero RBers
Round 9: Jaylen Waddle - 5th WR by Robust RBers vs. 4th WR by Zero RBers
Round 9: Elijah Moore - 8th WR by Robust RBers vs. 1st WR by Zero RBers
Round 10: Elijah Moore - 7th WR by Robust RBers vs. 5th WR by Zero RBers
Round 10: Rondale Moore - 9th WR by Robust RBers vs. 1st WR by Zero RBers
Round 11: Rondale Moore - 9th WR by Robust RBers vs. 2nd WR by Zero RBers
Round 11: Rashad Bateman - 6th WR by Robust RBers vs. 9th WR by Zero RBers
Round 13: Terrace Marshall - 4th WR by Robust RBers vs. 4th WR by Zero RBers
Round 14: Amon-Ra St. Brown - 1st WR by Robust RBers vs. 5th WR by Zero RBers
Round 15: Amon-Ra St. Brown - 1st WR by Robust RBers vs. 7th WR by Zero RBers
Round 15: Dyami Brown - 2nd WR by Robust RBers vs. 1st WR by Zero RBers
Round 16: Dyami Brown - 5th WR by Robust RBers vs. 1st WR by Zero RBers
Round 15: Kadarius Toney - 6th WR by Robust RBers vs. 14th WR by Zero RBers
Round 16: Kadarius Toney - 2nd WR by Robust RBers vs. 17th WR by Zero RBers
Round 16: D’Wayne Eskridge - 9th WR by Robust RBers vs. 4th WR by Zero RBers
Round 17: D’Wayne Eskridge - 6th WR by Robust RBers vs. 1st WR by Zero RBers
Round 18: D’Wayne Eskridge - 9th WR by Robust RBers vs. 1st WR by Zero RBers
Round 17: Nico Collins - 3rd WR by Robust RBers vs. 5th WR by Zero RBers
Round 18: Nico Collins - 1st WR by Robust RBers vs. 1st WR by Zero RBers
Round 17: Josh Palmer - 7th WR by Robust RBers vs. 9th WR by Zero RBers
Round 18: Josh Palmer - 3rd WR by Robust RBers vs. 5th WR by Zero RBers
I thought more of the rookie WRs would be prioritized by the Zero RBers, but it’s at least somewhat split here. I could be convinced that early-breakout age or high dominator rating rookie WRs are particularly well liked by the Zero RB group – thanks, RotoViz. For example, Chase was liked slightly more by Zero RBers while DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle were more Robust RBers. Same with Dyami Brown (Zero RBers) versus Kadarius Toney (Robust RBers). I mean, just look at the difference on the Toney teams. It’s nuts.
Round 4: Julio Jones - 1st WR for Robust RBers vs. 3rd WR for Zero RBers
Round 5: Kenny Golladay - 1st WR for Robust RBers vs. 10th WR for Zero RBers
Round 5: Adam Thielen - 5th WR for Robust RBers vs. 6th WR for Zero RBers
Round 6: Odell Beckham - 3rd WR for Robust RBers vs. 5th WR for Zero RBers
Round 8: Brandin Cooks - 1st WR for Robust RBers vs. 3rd WR for Zero RBers
Round 10: Marvin Jones - 2nd WR for Robust RBers vs. 3rd WR for Zero RBers
Round 11: Nelson Agholor - 4th WR for Robust RBers vs. 8th WR for Zero RBers
Round 11: T.Y. Hilton - 2nd WR for Robust RBers vs. 9th WR for Zero RBers
Round 13: John Brown - 5th WR for Robust RBers vs. 10th WR for Zero RBers
Round 13: Breshad Perriman - 6th WR for Robust RBers vs. 8th WR for Zero RBers
Round 14: A.J. Green - 6th WR for Robust RBers vs. 4th WR for Zero RBers
Round 14: Tyrell Williams - 5th WR for Robust RBers vs. 8th WR for Zero RBers
Round 15: Tyrell Williams - 3rd WR for Robust RBers vs. 5th WR for Zero RBers
Round 17: DeSean Jackson - 4th WR for Robust RBers vs. 3rd WR for Zero RBers
Lmao. The brands here have never been stronger. The older WRs will, in fact, be going to the Robust RBers.
Round 6: Tyler Boyd - 10th WR by Robust RBers vs. 3rd WR by Zero RBers
Round 7: JuJu Smith-Schuster - 1st WR by Robust RBers vs. 2nd WR by Zero RBers
Round 7: Laviska Shenault - 7th WR by Robust RBers vs. 3rd WR by Zero RBers
Round 9: Elijah Moore - 8th WR by Robust RBers vs. 1st WR by Zero RBers
Round 10: Elijah Moore - 7th WR by Robust RBers vs. 5th WR by Zero RBers
Round 10: Rondale Moore - 9th WR by Robust RBers vs. 1st WR by Zero RBers
Round 11: Rondale Moore - 9th WR by Robust RBers vs. 2nd WR by Zero RBers
Round 11: Cole Beasley - 3rd WR by Robust RBers vs. 5th WR by Zero RBers
Round 12: Cole Beasley - 5th WR by Robust RBers vs. 2nd WR by Zero RBers
Round 14: Jamison Crowder - 3rd WR by Robust RBers vs. 1st WR by Zero RBers
Round 14: Amon-Ra St. Brown - 1st WR by Robust RBers vs. 5th WR by Zero RBers
Round 15: Amon-Ra St. Brown - 1st WR by Robust RBers vs. 7th WR by Zero RBers
It's not super strong, but I think it's true that Zero RBers like slot receivers more than Robust RBers, especially the young slot receivers.
Round 10: Trey Lance - 4th QB by Robust RBers vs. 2nd QB by Zero RBers
Round 11 Justin Fields - 2nd QB by Robust RBers vs. 1st QB by Zero RBers
In general, I think Zero RBers will be more willing to take on the risk of playing time for upside, as they're already understanding uncertainty by opting for the strategy in the first place. There were no better examples than last year's rookie QBs, and both Trey Lance and Justin Fields ended up on more Zero RB teams than Robust RB teams.