We at Underdog Fantasy release our pick-by-pick data to the public just so we can learn about the fantasy football industry every offseason. For me (Hayden Winks), that's another excuse to come up with some ridiculous charts to complete today's objective: Create a 2024 fantasy football recap by finding out who were the best picks in all 18 rounds of drafts, and why they came up so clutch for fantasy football champions.
To quickly summarize the column, the 2024 fantasy football season was mostly dominated by RB1s and the truly elite WR1s because the TE position largely flopped, the elite QBs were often matched by some breakout QBs in different shapes and sizes, and the WR2s were straight-up out-scored by the WR4s. On top of that, two underlying player arch types also dominated drafts: 1) players changing teams and 2) the incoming rookies. You'll see those brought up a combined 11 times out of the 18 players I wrote up today.
He won the damn triple crown despite not participating in training camp for contract reasons and despite Joe Burrow's scary offseason wrist surgery. Neither mattered at all, as Burrow clearly played an MVP level with better athleticism than we've seen from. Chase's 51% advance rate was the best in the 5 years of the Best Ball Mania Era, and his fantasy points over replacement per game (+13.1) was the second best of the season only behind Saquon Barkley. Chase is undoubtably that the Spike Week King, too. Over the last 5 years, Chase owns the 2nd, 3rd, 7th, and 16th best single games in half PPR among all WRs, and only post-prime Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams are in the same conversation, which is great news for Chase moving forward. He will be the consensus 1.01 next year.
The worries were Barkley hasn't been "good" in years per non-contextualized analytics and that Jalen Hurts would steal a bunch of goal-line touchdowns. One proved true. Barkley only had 4 rushing TDs inside the 10-yard line, compared to Hurts' 13. But the former proved disastrously wrong. Barkley's speed fully rebounded with a healthy offseason and an upgraded OL that allowed him to get to the second level at rates he's never had before. Barkley had TDs of 72, 70, 68, 65, 39, 25, 23, 20, 19, and 18 yards. Those explosives and favorable game script with the Eagles' improved defense led to the 9th-ever 2,000 rushing yard season, a 48% advance rate, and a season-high 13.8 fantasy points over replacement per game. The WR thirst on Underdog Fantasy is real, but Barkley has a strong case to be the 1.02.
The worries for Henry were almost identical to Saquon's, but The Big Dog was also at the age cliff. Does the age cliff know what Henry looks like that, though? Does the age cliff know about yards before contact? Henry's impressive career with the Titans afforded him 1.0 yards before contact on average. This season with Lamar Jackson drawing attention on zone reads, it jumped to a career-high 2.3 which is more than double his previous career average for those who know multiplication. Henry's 12 TDs inside the 10-yard line were aided by the fact Lamar isn't the short-yardage threat that Hurts is, and the rest really is history. The cherry on top was a 165-yard, 1-TD game in the finals. For next year, it's hard to see him outside of the 2nd round, but that dang age cliff will be the big part of the discussion once again.
This takes a little nuance because he missed 5 games, but Higgins was dominant when active and hit a ceiling when it mattered most, even with Ja'Marr Chase owning the triple crown. Higgins was the WR28 in ADP and finished the regular season as the WR25 in total fantasy points over replacement. On a per game basis, that's WR9 production, which was more than enough to finish with an above-average 23% advance rate. But then he got really hot in the fantasy playoffs, ultimately finishing as the WR1 overall in Week 17 (34.6 half PPR points). In best ball tournaments, the Joe Burrow double, triple, or quadruple stack was beyond elite. The team that won the $1.5M prize took all the points Chase provided throughout the regular season to advance, then used Burrow-Higgins in the finals to win it all. That's the ping-pong effect of the best ball scoring system working to his advantage. And it was clear that if Chase would've been hurt at any point this year, Higgins would've had an even bigger season. Hopefully he remains in Cincinnati next year. If so, Round 2/3 turn at the very least.
This is the 3rd veteran RB who went from a bad to good environment who paid off in big ways. Jacobs (5'10"/223) beat Aaron Jones (5'9"/208) touch record, 337 to 304, and was Next Gen Stats' RB4 in percentage of his runs ending with positive yards over expected. It was clear based on the contract and scheme change that Jacobs was going to be a bellcow (at least to me), yet the ADP kept sinking. The Kyle Shanahan tree is becoming more power based rather than outside zone based in this era of the 2-high defense, and we've seen wins with Kyren Williams, Jordan Mason, Joe Mixon, and Jacobs because of it. It certainly helped that rookie Marshawn Lloyd couldn't get healthy or impress in limited practices, but Jacobs was too good in 2024 to have many doubts in 2025. He'll likely be a Round 2/3 turn pick on Underdog after finishing as the RB4 in fantasy points over replacement on a 30% advance rate... He was my most drafted player and a Round 2 ranking in my final update.
There was just a single "Elite TE" this year, and he wasn't drafted as such. Kittle was the TE7 in ADP and easily finished as the TE1 in fantasy points over replacement on a 23% advance rate, which was suppressed by the correlation of massive teammate busts in Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel. Of course, those injuries did help his target counts, which was the primary reason of concern heading into the year. Without them, he would've been drafted as the TE1 overall. Luck matters to a degree in fantasy football, but it helps to get lucky when the talent is at a Hall of Fame level and when the scheme is world class. Kittle's target competition in 2025 won't be terrifying with both CMC and Aiyuk coming off injury and Deebo likely playing elsewhere. If he's not the TE3 overall just behind the younger Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, I'd be quite surprised. Kittle's 23rd overall finish in fantasy points over replacement from last year likely puts him in the Round 3 discussion.
The highly productive and efficient 21-year-old early declare from LSU with 4.3 speed at 6'3"/210 turned out to be good. Actually, not good. Elite. By the end of the year even without Trevor Lawrence, Thomas not only was consistently burning CBs with his downfield speed, but the Jaguars were designing plays underneath for him. End arounds, jet sweeps, screens, mesh routes. You name it. Great. Then they got him going on fades and crossing routes out of the slot. There's a Top 10 WR discussion to be had with him already, if not higher than that. Thomas was the WR16 in fantasy points over replacement in the regular season, but he finished as the WR1 overall in the fantasy playoffs including a top-12 finish in the finals when he was the highest-rostered WR on Best Ball Mania finalist rosters. It's unclear who will be coaching the Jaguars in 2025 and if Evan Engram and Christian Kirk will be around still, but it's abundantly clear that Thomas is in the late Round 1 mix in drafts as a sophomore.
Everyone knew Bowers was an elite receiving prospect, but the Raiders' environment was murky at best. Things immediately cleared up when Davante Adams was traded at the end of September. From Week 5 on, Bowers was the TE2 only behind George Kittle despite playing for a 4-win team. His best outings were the 1st- and 3rd-best overall game by any TE this season if we remove theeee Taysom Hill game, and he sent the all time rookie receptions record, not just for TEs but for all positions. Bowers did so with a yards after the catch flair, while holding his own as a blocker and catch point artist as well. There's really nothing holding him back from a decade-long run as an "Elite TE" in fantasy and real life. We'll see who will sign up to coach the Raiders and throw the football to him with Tom Brady overseeing operations from a distance, but Bowers is a Travis Kelce like asset heading into his prime. There will be Round 1 buzz. Worst case, early Round 2.
The QB10 in ADP finished as the QB5 in fantasy points over replacement during the regular season, and then finished as the QB1 throughout the fantasy playoffs (30.9 points per game). Daniels was as advertised as a rusher, setting the all time record for most rushing yards by a rookie QB. And he did so on the 2nd-best success rate among QBs with 300+ rushing yards (only trailing Drake Maye ironically). Daniels' arm talent was on display and the concerns about throwing over the middle were quickly thwarted by ... Kliff Kingsbury's scheme??? Yuppp. Daniels should run away with the rookie of the year, and he should get more skill talent around him next year. We've added another elite athlete to the Elite QB discussion. Welcome to Round 3/4 of fantasy drafts with the likes of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts.
This was good process, decent results (RB29 in the regular season and RB21 in the playoffs), and a what could have been dream case if Dak Prescott and Zach Martin stayed healthy. Dowdle was a complete no namer entering the season with fine-enough explosiveness on limited tape the year prior, but the Cowboys only brought in Ezekiel Elliott and skipped out on the rookie RB class entirely. At some point, there had to be fantasy points scored by an ignored position. Dowdle proved to not just be a fine enough desperation plan for Dallas, but he was quietly the RB9 in rushing success rate on 4.7 yards per carry behind an injured OL with a backup QB. His issue was he became the 3rd player in NFL history to only have 1 rushing TD while eclipsing 1,000 rushing yards. That's the Cowboys for you in 2024. We'll see if there's a real market for him in free agency next year, but we'll always remember the Sklansky bucks we earned in a bad area of the draft.
There were reasons to critique Jeudy's overzealous route running during his rookie contract, but Jeudy began cleaning things up on tape in 2023 before being traded this offseason. Not only did the Browns trade for him, but they also extended him to a bigger than expected deal. That should've been notable. Once the season kicked off, Jeudy wasn't running his normal staple of underneath timing routes. He was told to cut the shit and just run fast down the field, increasing his percentage of posts, corners, daggers, and go routes where there's no time to waste at the line of scrimmage. Jeudy's ceiling was raised once GOAT Jameis Winston was named QB and Amari Cooper left town, but Jeudy's tape is undoubtably better even removing those two pluses. He's under contract without much target competition and money to spend in Cleveland, and if it is Kirk Cousins as his QB, then I'll once again have interest in Jeudy. He was the WR12 in yards per game and had a 30% advance rate in the regular season.
The 27-year-old signed a $26M guaranteed contract to join a 3-WR set team without much pass-catching depth. The bar for Mooney to walk into spike weeks was low, and Mooney far exceeding expectations on tape with improved route running. Like Jeudy, he was an over seller at the line of scrimmage as a Bear, but things got cleaned up in Atlanta with better coaching and a better role for him. Mooney was electric on Tank Dell like routes (go balls, comebacks, and outs), and that connection should be enhanced if Michael Penix's arm talent and mobility prove to be upgraded over Kirk Cousins in 2025. Mooney was the WR18 in fantasy points over replacement during the regular season despite being the WR64 in ADP. That led to a 28% advance rate as one of the best late-round WRs for those dominant robust RB teams.
On an awful 2023 Panthers team, Hubbard closed the year as the 106th overall player with a Week 6-17 run as the RB22 per game. It was impressive to see someone step up on that team, which made the early 2nd-round selection of Jonathon Brooks partially frustrating for all involved. Brooks' ACL tear was initially thought to put him on the Week 1 bubble, but things never materialized and the struggling Panthers were incentivized to slow play his return. Through Week 10 when Brooks was finally on track to return, Hubbard was already the RB12 per game on 5.1 yards per carry. An unfortunate re-tear of Brooks' ACL allowed Hubbard to finish the season strong with a 32% advance rate and the 2nd-highest appearance in the Best Ball Mania finals at the position. In all likelihood, Hubbard will once again have the backfield to himself with Brooks out for 2025. It's easy to make the case that he's a top 16 RB next year with Bryce Young showing real signs of life down the stretch of this season. Even that broke right for him in 2024.
He was an intriguing, yet flawed prospect. Irving is small, didn't test well at the NFL Combine, and then fell to the 5th round of the NFL Draft, but he runs bigger than his size and landed in a great spot with the benefit of some hindsight. Irving always had real odds of stealing carries from Rachaad White, who was a much better RB in passing situations than a strict ball carrier. What I couldn't predict was the Bucs OL going from a weakness to a complete strength under a relative no-namer new OC. Liam Coen demolished teams on the ground with All Pro LT Tristan Wirfs, 1st-round C Graham Barton, and RT Luke Goedeke up front, and Irving was mostly able to survive despite his 5'10"/195 frame. Irving's RB6 ranking in rush yards over expected per carry earned him more carries down the stretch, leading him to a 24% advance rate in the regular season and the 10th-highest Best Ball Mania finalist rate at the position. In Week 17, Irving capped off a late-round RB smash season with 190 total yards. We'll see if Irving is a 2nd- or 3rd-rounder next year. Some of that will be settled on if Coen is retained as the Bucs' play caller.
The loss of 2023 OC Dave Canales had us shook. What we didn't know is that Mayfield's improved in-pocket feel would stay, while new OC Liam Coen would provide even more schematic advantages in both phases. Mayfield easily set career highs in yards per game (267), yards per attempt (8.0), success rate (54%), touchdown rate (7%), and yards after the catch per completion (6.2), which is the ultimate sign things are going well. The Bucs ultimately finished the season with the 4th-most points in the league, and Mayfield contributed with his legs, nearly doubling his rush yards per game (19.3) during his age-29 season. Keep in mind that Chris Godwin and Mike Evans combined for just 20 of 34 possible games together. It's time to give Mayfield credit for this career turnaround. Going from QB22 in ADP to QB6 in fantasy points doesn't happen by accident. And if all that wasn't enough, how about Mayfield's QB2 overall finish in the Week 17 finals. What a story.
If you didn't expect a 29-year-old career role player who signed a $4M guaranteed contract to tie Tyreek Hill and beat Jaylen Waddle in receptions this year, then I guess you just don't know ball. (Kidding.) The Dolphins going from intermediate and downfield based in their pass game to unbelievably underneath based was somewhat predictable with their porous offensive line and the addition of De'Von Achane as a receiving weapon, but to make Jonnu a first-read target on a lot of plays over those receivers was completely unfathomable to me and well just about everyone. Smith is a great yards after the catch weapon, however, and the plays were in fact working (66% success rate). The Dolphins watched the Tyreek decline in 2024 and don't have the cap space to further add to the offense, so there's a chance Jonnu has a version of this season in 2025 as well. At the very least, Smith can be drafted in the Evan Engram or Jake Ferguson range as a low-end TE1, and that'd be a discount compared to his TE5 per-game finish in half PPR. What a smash at a TE24 price tag.
Once again, environment matters so much. Darnold's career numbers were pathetic, but they were also with Adam Gase's Jets and Matt Rhule's Panthers. He showed some flashes with Joe Brady in Carolina, and then paid his dues learning the Kyle Shanahan offense in 2023. Signing a prove it deal with QB whisperer coach Kevin O'Connell this past offseason will prove to be a multi $100M decision for the fellow Trojan. A J.J. McCarthy season-ending knee injury paved the way to be the starter, but let's be honest, Darnold's dominance all year would've kept the rookie on the bench all year. Darnold's pocket navigation improved throughout the season and he simply made far fewer dumb decisions to close out the year. The Vikings (easily) had the best downfield attack in the NFL, and there's not a more valuable play than a hurl from inside the pocket. Darnold can thank the scheme, a well-built OL, Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison for reaching QB10 in EPA per play, but we can't ignore his own progress in 2024. The Vikings were far too good in 2024 to let Darnold, a pending free agent, leave the building, especially with McCarthy needing a second surgery on that knee. If a QB has proven to be capable of getting hot enough to win a Super Bowl, then it's hard to move on from that upside. Darnold simply is the most improved player of 2024 and it can be argued it's one of the all time single season turnarounds in NFL history.
We added the Waiver Wire show to the YouTube channel this year thanks to Sam Sherman, and it was honestly a fun show to create but it lacked the juice of other seasons based on the available players. Kareem Hunt and Jordan Mason had real runs of RB1 flirtation, but the best WR pickup of the year was Jennings, who had not one but two opportunities for additions throughout the year. Jennings was physically tough and relied upon once the 49ers lost the speed of their offense. Brock Purdy made more tight-window, intermediate throws to the perimeter this year than in previous seasons, and Jennings more times than not came down with them. In Best Ball Mania, Jennings was only taken in 1-in-10 drafts despite those being 18 rounds with nearly 100 WRs being drafted on average. The teams lucky enough to draft him advanced 30% of their teams. It's hard to find super late round WR production, but Jennings proved to be the exception. He was the WR101 in ADP and finished the regular season as the WR8 in fantasy points over replacement. Unreal stuff (obviously aided by a season-ending Brandon Aiyuk injury, the disappearance/hospitalization of Deebo Samuel, the shooting of rookie Ricky Pearsall, and the IR stint of Christian McCaffrey).
WR Justin Jefferson and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
RB Jahmyr Gibbs and RB De'Von Achane
RB Kyren Williams and WR Mike Evans
QB Lamar Jackson and QB Josh Allen
RB James Cook and WR Terry McLaurin
RB Joe Mixon and RB David Montgomery
RB James Conner and RB Alvin Kamara
QB Joe Burrow and WR Jordan Addison
RB Chase Brown and TE David Njoku
WR Jakobi Meyers and WR Khalil Shakir
QB Jared Goff and TE Dallas Goedert
RB Zach Charbonnet and RB J.K. Dobbins
WR Adam Thielen and WR Josh Downs
WR Rashod Bateman and TE Hunter Henry
TE Cade Otton and WR Jalen McMillan
RB Tyrone Tracy and RB Jordan Mason
QB Bo Nix and WR Quentin Johnston
QB Russell Wilson and RB Kareem Hunt