Fantasy football spike weeks are the key to winning best ball tournaments on Underdog Fantasy, so Hayden Winks looks at the data to see where big games come from. If you're new to the format, you can try our $5 Puppy drafts to prepare for Best Ball Mania IV: the largest fantasy tournament of all time ($15M). Use promo code "UNDERBLOG" to match your deposit up to $100.

QB Spike Weeks

Including the NFL Playoffs in 2022, there were 30 instances of a QB scoring at least 30 fantasy points, which typically means finishing as the QB1 or QB2 on the week.

• Patrick Mahomes (5 games)

• Jalen Hurts (5 games)

• Josh Allen (4 games)

• Joe Burrow (3 games)

• Lamar Jackson (2 games)

• Justin Fields (2 games)

• Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, and Tom Brady each had one.

In 2021, a similar trend showed up across 32 instances:

• Patrick Mahomes (6 games)

• Josh Allen (6 games)

• Justin Herbert (4 games)

• Lamar Jackson (3 games)

• Kyler Murray (3 games)

• Joe Burrow (2 games)

• Dak Prescott (2 games)

• Tom Brady (2 games)

• Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, and Tyler Huntley each had one.

So over the last two seasons, the top-7 QBs in current Underdog Fantasy ADP accounted for 69% of the QB spike weeks defined by 30+ fantasy points. And that includes the non-prime year of 2021 for both Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts, while including 3 games of the retired Tom Brady and 3 games of the injured Kyler Murray. If these top-7 QBs stay healthy, we could see about 60-80% of the QB spike weeks going to Elite QB this year.

TE Spike Weeks

Including the NFL Playoffs in 2022, there were 30 instances of a TE scoring at least 19 fantasy points, which typically means finishing as the TE1 or TE2 on the week.

• Travis Kelce (5 games)

• Mark Andrews (3 games)

• George Kittle (3 games)

• T.J. Hockenson (2 games)

• Dalton Schultz (2 games)

• Cole Kmet (2 games)

• Dallas Goedert, Evan Engram, David Njoku, Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill, Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett, Mike Gesicki, Tyler Conklin, Mo Alie-Cox, Jordan Akins, and Shane Zylstra each had one.

In 2021, a similar trend showed up across another 29 instances:

• Travis Kelce (6 games)

• Mark Andrews (4 games)

• George Kittle (2 games)

• Kyle Pitts (2 games)

• Rob Gronkowski (2 games)

• Dawson Knox (2 games)

• C.J. Uzomah (2 games)

• T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, Dalton Schultz, David Njoku, Tyler Higbee, Hunter Henry, Noah Fant, and Zach Ertz each had one.

So over the last two years, the current top-7 TEs in ADP have accounted for 53% of the TE spike weeks, defined by 19+ fantasy points. While Kyle Pitts (23 years old) and T.J. Hockenson (26) are heading into the primes of their careers, Travis Kelce (34), George Kittle (30), and Darren Waller (31) are at least in the age cliff zone. It wouldn't be surprising to me if the Elite TEs only made up half of this season's spike weeks.

RB Spike Weeks

Including the NFL Playoffs in 2022, there were 43 instances of a RB scoring at least 25 fantasy points, which typically means finishing as the RB1, RB2, or RB3 on the week.

• Josh Jacobs (4 games)

• Austin Ekeler (4 games)

• Christian McCaffrey (3 games)

• Miles Sanders (3 games)

• Saquon Barkley (2 games)

• Nick Chubb (2 games)

• Tony Pollard (2 games)

• Derrick Henry (2 games)

• Dalvin Cook (2 games)

• Kenneth Walker (2 games)

• D'Andre Swift (2 games)

• Jerick McKinnon (2 games)

• Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Cam Akers, Alvin Kamara, Rashaad Penny, Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, Samaje Perine, and Leonard Fournette each had one.

In 2021, a similar trend showed up across another 43 instances:

• Austin Ekeler (4 games)

• Jonathan Taylor (4 games)

• Derrick Henry (3 games)

• Joe Mixon (3 games)

• Rashaad Penny (3 games)

• Leonard Fournette (3 games)

• Nick Chubb (2 games)

• James Conner (2 games)

• Alvin Kamara (2 games)

• Cordarrelle Patterson (2 games)

• Saquon Barkley, Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, Javonte Williams, Elijah Mitchell, Damien Harris, AJ Dillon, Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Carter, Rex Burkhead, Myles Gaskin, Duke Johnson, and Justin Jackson each had one.

That means 41% of the RB spike weeks over the last two seasons came from top-11 RBs in current ADP. That goes up to 65% for the top-24 RBs in current ADP. Because of injuries, there are some random spike weeks from players who are being drafted well outside the top-100 overall picks.

WR Spike Weeks

Including the NFL Playoffs in 2022, there were 49 instances of a WR scoring at least 25 fantasy points, which typically means finishing as the WR1, WR2, or WR3 on the week.

• Justin Jefferson (6 games)

• Davante Adams (6 games)

• Tyreek Hill (3 games)

• Ja'Marr Chase (2 games)

• Cooper Kupp (2 games)

• Stefon Diggs (2 games)

• A.J. Brown (2 games)

• CeeDee Lamb (2 games)

• Amon-Ra St. Brown (2 games)

• DeVonta Smith (2 games)

• Jaylen Waddle (2 games)

• Mike Evans (2 games)

In 2021, a similar trend showed up across another 52 instances:

• Cooper Kupp (8 games)

• Davante Adams (6 games)

• Tyreek Hill (4 games)

• Deebo Samuel (4 games)

• Justin Jefferson (2 games)

• Ja'Marr Chase (2 games)

• A.J. Brown (2 games)

• CeeDee Lamb (2 games)

• Mike Williams (2 games)

• Mike Evans (2 games)

47% of these WR1 spike weeks over the last two years came from the top-16 WRs in current ADP. That's similar to the RB scores, but the difference is the second and third tier. 86% of these 25+ fantasy point games come from the top-36 WRs in current ADP.

Conclusion

Because best ball is a weekly game with big weekly payouts, we need to prioritize players who have paths to big games. Duh. There are random WRs who will pop off for 15-20 point games, which is helpful, but it's quite rare for a random WR to finish as a top-3 WR on the week. It's the position that can't be left alone in the first handful of rounds, adding more fire to my Golden Rule of Best Ball which is to have at least 4 WRs through Round 7. I also think this data suggests my Draft More Best Ball Teams With 6-8 WRs column could be onto something.

The next position to prioritize is Elite QB because they provide safe floors and an underrated share of the elite weekly scores. Last year, it was 69% of the spike weeks. It could be higher this year, as the entire tier is in the prime of their careers.

Finding RB value can come from anywhere on the draft board. The elite RB1s combine for nearly half of the RB spike weeks but about one third of the spike weeks come from RBs not drafted inside the top-24 at their position, usually because an insurance back got a start. Like I've said for years, it's viable to build zero, hero, and super hero RB teams on Underdog Fantasy due to the half PPR scoring. Find your favorite RBs and pick them at or after ADP. I don't decide my strategy pre-draft. I let the board fall to me.

TE is the spot I'm choosing to punt in hopes of finding late round spikes. 53% of the spike weeks in recent seasons have come from the top-7 TEs in ADPs, but Kelce, Waller, and Kittle are older than 31 years old, so there's a chance that the elite production dips off. Even if I'm wrong, the fantasy points over replacement at TE isn't as heavy as some suggest. I wrote about that here.