Underdog Fantasy's Best Ball Mania III is 35% filled, which is enough to start thinking about how ADPs have changed since the beginning of the tournament. Today's column will highlight the players who have fallen in ADP since mid-May because you will have an advantage over the people who were drafting these players earlier on in the tournament when their prices were higher. I wrote about if I think these players will continue falling in ADP, or if this is the time to buy low.
As you will see, there is some urgency to get into the Underdog Fantasy lobby right now before these ADPs correct. You can use promo code 'UNDERBLOG' for a $100 first-time deposit match.
Kamara is due in court on August 1st, but things are tentatively trending towards his suspension coming in the 2023 season. Even if he gets popped for six games in 2022, Kamara’s ADP drop from 18th overall to 34th overall would cover most of the loss, especially with almost all of the money on Underdog Fantasy being handed out based on Week 17 scoring. … While Kamara’s ADP has fallen most (-84%), Thomas isn’t far behind with the sixth biggest percentage-based drop (-49%). His is injury related, so his potential rebound won’t be as sudden as Kamara’s. Still, Saints’ reporter Nick Underhill is relatively confident Thomas is on track to return before Week 1, and I’m expecting a slight uptick in his ADP late in August once he’s cleared to fully practice. If you draft him now, it could be at the cheapest price tag of all of Best Ball Mania III.
No team has collectively fallen like the Browns, and it’s not even close. At this point, the Deshaun Watson suspension risk is baked into the price tags, especially with floor-stabler Jimmy Garoppolo in play if Watson is in fact out for the year. Deshaun Watson (-68%), Amari Cooper (-58%), David Bell (-30%), Donovan Peoples-Jones (-17%), Nick Chubb (-17%), and David Njoku (-3%) have all fallen in ADP. We could get Watson news as soon as Monday, so prices could bounce back quickly.
Why has he fallen 42% since mid-May? Seriously, why? I need answers. Meanwhile, JuJu Smith-Schuster (+9%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+20%), Skyy Moore (-12%), and Mecole Hardman (+11%) have all danced around in an ascending fashion.
Mark Andrews (-20%) and Lamar Jackson (-19%) have both dropped in ADP despite some pessimistic reports on the Ravens’ running backs. If the Ravens can’t run the ball as well as we originally thought, the Ravens pass-catchers all could be underpriced.
Chris Godwin (-39%) and Tom Brady (-16%) have fallen in ADP, but now is the time to buy. Godwin’s ACL/MCL is now properly priced in, especially since we mostly expect him to be himself by the time fantasy playoffs roll around. Meanwhile, Mike Evans (+28%) and Russell Gage (+37%) have flown up draft boards. I’m still fine with Evans in Round 2, but there’s no way I’m drafting Gage in the same round as Godwin.
Stefon Diggs (+32%), Gabriel Davis (+25%), and Jamison Crowder (+13%) are all up in ADP, but Josh Allen’s ADP is down 38%. Why? I’m not sure. The cheapest way to viably stack the Bills is drafting Allen in Round 3, seeing if Davis falls to Round 5, and then aiming to stack Dawson Knox (down 8% in ADP) with Isaiah McKenzie (up only 2%) later on. Allen to Knox is one of my favorite pairings in best ball.
DK Metcalf (-44%), Tyler Lockett (-20%), Kenneth Walker (-17%), and Noah Fant (-5%) have all fallen in ADP because the QB musical chairs hasn’t been kind to these skill players. The last chance for a QB upgrade over Drew Lock and Geno Smith is Jimmy Garoppolo, which isn’t all that exciting. Still, if that happens, these players are too cheap, and I really don’t see them falling much further at this point. These price tags are free-rolling a Garoppolo signing/trade or a better-than-expected season out of the current QB depth chart.
Earlier in the offseason, I called Gibson the most overrated RB in the NFL, but now he’s going in a range I like and there’s a big advantage in drafting players who are 53% cheaper. Folks in May were drafting him in Round 4 and 5. Now we can get him in Round 6 or Round 7 after the elite QBs and upside WR2s are off the board. Gibson is a dog to get a large receiving workload now which means his ceiling is relatively capped, but we should expect a player who played a different position in college to still be ascending in year three of his NFL career. Gibson also could be healthier than he was in 2021.
There is a 0% chance of anyone reading this taking this advice, but here I go anyway. T.J. Hockenson (-15%), Jameson Williams (-29%), D.J. Chark (-6%), and Jared Goff (-1%) have all fallen in ADP for no good reason. I still think Williams’ ADP is trending south, as most are closing their eyes to the numerous reports of Williams being a long-term PUP candidate, but the rest of the squad comes in at a reasonable price, particularly D.J. Chark. If I need a third or fourth team to stack, Chark with Goff and Jamaal Williams is now one of my favorites. This coaching staff and offensive line are sick, and it’ll be more fun for us to watch Hard Knocks while our bags get pumped.
It’s all FUD when it comes to Pittsburgh this year, but after watching even more Big Ben from last year, let me tell you …. It can’t get worse. Diontae Johnson (-19%), Pat Freiermuth (-5%), and George Pickens (-22%) are down in price, while Chase Claypool (+1%) and Kenny Pickett (largely undrafted) haven’t moved. In these massive field tournaments, I think there’s an edge in drafting a first-round QB who isn’t being drafted often. Pickett in Round 18 after drafting a few of his pass-catchers seems pretty sharp while it’s widely assumed the Steelers are screwed this year. What if … hear me out … the first round QB is decent?!?
In terms of median outcomes, yes, I’m worried about Burks as a rookie while he transitions positions in an offense I’m expecting iffy things from. But there’s no denying his upside given his performance at Alabama and his 1st round draft capital, so there’s a price point in which I’m in. That price point is right now, after his ADP has fallen 29% since mid-May. Burks has enough truthers to prevent his ADP from dropping too much further, and all it would take for his ADP to vault up is one positive training camp report or one big play in the preseason. The odds of his ADP ascending a bit are high, so now is the time to sprinkle in some shares … even if he’s an incredibly boom-bust prospect.
Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd haven’t budged much in ADP this entire offseason, but Burrow’s ADP is down 19% since the launch of BBMIII. Now is a good time to get some Bengals stacks, especially with the Dawson Knox bring back.
I haven’t drafted any Dolphins this offseason yet, but the prices have fallen to the point where I’m more interested. Tyreek Hill (-17%), Jaylen Waddle (-17%), Tua Tagovailoa (-6%), and Mike Gesicki (-10%) have all dropped by a round, so Miami stacks look better than ever. It also helps that their Week 17 opponent is the cheapest team in the NFL to stack, with DeVante Parker, Hunter Henry, and Mac Jones sitting in the double digit rounds.
The Jets will probably be bad on offense, but at least they are getting cheaper and cheaper. Elijah Moore (-8%), Garrett Wilson (-22%), Corey Davis (-16%), and Zach Wilson (-20%) are as cheap as they’ve been all offseason. The same is true for their Week 17 opponent, the Seattle Seahawks. It’s a reasonable last-second game stack.
Courtland Sutton (+37% in ADP) and Tim Patrick (+23%) are up so much that I think we have to consider fully fading their prices now. Instead, it’s best to stack Russell Wilson (-6%) with Jerry Jeudy (+1%) and/or Albert Okwuegbunam (-13%).
And the players we could be thinking about fading now because their ADPs have climbed up the board: