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Rookie RB1 Ashton Jeanty: OC Chip Kelly's NFL offenses ranked 1st, 7th, 11th, and 4th in rush attempts, and there's nobody worth noting behind Jeanty on the depth chart. His workload will immediately be among the highest in the NFL, noting the Raiders are still a slightly below-average offense most likely with a win total of 7.0. Jeanty has more ceiling than given credit for as a pass catcher as well. Our film breakdown of him is here.
RB2 Omarion Hampton: Not only does he get Round 1 draft capital, but the Chargers are a fantastic landing spot for him once he fully buries Najee Harris. OC Greg Roman had Los Angeles 12th in rush attempts last year despite a poor set of backs, so even if Harris starts out hot, there should be some FLEX appeal early. Harris' lack of speed will be impossible to ignore next to Hampton, who could play passing downs on top of his downhill rushing style. Expect the Chargers OL to have better injury luck this upcoming season, too. Our film breakdown of him is here.
WR1 Travis Hunter: While he can play corner at a high level, the Jaguars said they were searching for touchdowns before the draft, mortgaged the future for Hunter, and then said he's playing receiver first. It also makes sense for their roster. Hunter should be a near full-time player on offense, and his skill set plays well if he has to take some breathers on occasion. He's one of the best screen players I've seen, and OC Liam Coen was the best screen caller in the NFL last year. Hunter's upside as he continues to learn real route running is untapped, and Trevor Lawrence's career numbers will be improved upon now that he has two elite-level prospects at receiver. Expect the 3-WR sets to be Brian Thomas (X), Hunter (Z), and Dyami Brown (slot) with all of them able to switch positions. Our film breakdown of him is here.
WR2 Tetairoa McMillan: It's not a surprise that the NFL loved the 6-foot-4 fluid X receiver who averaged 108 and 110 yards per game before declaring early. He's an incredible prospect worthy of his top-8 draft capital. McMillan is instantly the best receiver on the roster and Bryce Young's new best friend. They actually pair well together, as Bryce's best throws are in that 5-20 yard range where McMillan's skillset translates best. The Panthers will want to establish the run, but he has a path to WR2 or WR3 production from the jump. Expect the 3-WR sets to be McMillan (X), Xavier Legette (Z), and Adam Thielen (slot). Our film breakdown of him is here.
RB3 Kaleb Johnson: His Round 3 draft capital isn't as great as some of the Round 2 backs, but Johnson is an excellent fit for the Steelers offense, one we expect Aaron Rodgers to sign up for soon enough. It's a wide zone system with plenty of OL investments, improved WR play, and Rodgers to direct it all. While risky, Pittsburgh looks like an average to above average offense with a win total of 8.5. Johnson is a much better runner than what Jaylen Warren showed last year, so he's likely to win the touchdown job pretty early in the season even if Warren mixes in on passing downs. Najee Harris was 59th overall in best ball points last year in this role. Our film breakdown of him is here.
RB4 TreVeyon Henderson: Being drafted at 38th overall is a nice win for Henderson, despite never being the clear 1a in his college offenses. That'll be the debate here once again. Henderson can play all three downs, but can he handle 15+ touches per game or be the go-to option at the goal line? Those are two different things. Rhamondre Stevenson has 30ish pounds on him and is under contract with $17M guaranteed, so this will very likely be a tandem approach where Henderson steals more work over time. The Patriots did crush the draft and have an ascending high-ceiling QB with a better play caller in house, so we should largely throw out any 2024 team stats. Our film breakdown of him is here.
RB5 RJ Harvey: Let the steam begin. Aside from getting confirmation that Hunter is going to actually play offense, there was no bigger rookie winner than Harvey versus pre-draft expectations. He went 60th overall after being ranked 100th overall in consensus, and he went to the "joker" role that Sean Payton has been hunting for since signing with the Broncos, who have a 9.5 win total. Harvey has the jitterbug gene, which you see in his forced missed tackles numbers, and he created the occasional explosive in the pass game. His speed and final-year production are that of a real NFL player. The risk is that he's a 24-year-old rookie and has 10th percentile weight. Will he be the featured back or just the top option in a 3-back committee in Denver? The competition is weak with just Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime. Our film breakdown of him is here.
RB6 Quinshon Judkins: The Browns surprisingly made Judkins the official RB3 in the draft class when they took him 36th overall to be their new version of Nick Chubb. He's nowhere near the athlete Chubb was, and this team is still in rough shape up front, at QB, and with their pass-catching depth, however. In fact, their win total sits at just 5.5, which makes it more difficult to churn fantasy points if he's not playing passing downs. That'll likely be the case with Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson as the other top options. Expect plenty of carries, but there is worry that these could be low-value touches while the team rebuilds. Our film breakdown of him is here.
WR3 Matthew Golden: The Packers are the perfect fit for his emerging skill set. He's a burner who plays well with an aggressive and capable downfield QB like Jordan Love, and he's a crafty YAC threat who plays well with creative play caller Matt LaFleur. Golden should be a full-time player and the alpha in a room full of secondary options, and this offense sits within the top-10 in a lot of metrics already. Their 9.5 win total is amongst the highest with a contributing rookie asset, and Golden's flawed profile should come with one bit of context. In the era of transfers, we should expect some players like Golden to struggle to get looks in September with a new team before reaching their potential late in the year. If we look at Golden's last 8 games, he looks like the normal 1st rounder with speed (82 YPG). If we look at the entire season, he looks like a total outlier (62 YPG). That difference will pop up more as more Houston-level recruits end up at the blue bloods. Adjust. Our film breakdown of him is here.
RB7 Cam Skattebo: There was pre-draft fear that the NFL wasn't a fan, but the Sun Devil super star went 105th overall at the top of Round 4. We'll take it. Skattebo has bellcow ability if he can prove quick enough because he touched the ball heavily in college, has requisite size, and was a stud receiver out of the backfield. While we can respect what 5th-rounder Tyrone Tracy accomplished as a rookie, it's Skattebo who has more all-around upside and the floor is fairly high with just Devin Singletary ($6M guaranteed) as the other option. The Giants offense will be dramatically better because of their QB room improvements even if their win total is at 5.5. There's a chance Skattebo is the clear starter by the end of the year. Just don't expect starter-level volume early. It'll be a real competition. Our film breakdown of him is here.
TE1 Colston Loveland: He's a total stud. The Bears sat back at 10th overall, knowing they'd miss out on Ashton Jeanty because they were loving Loveland. There were times where the pass-catching TE looked like a legit WR on tape, despite being 6-foot-6 and nearly 250 pounds. Optimism around this new OL, HC Ben Johnson, and 2nd-year Caleb Williams has shot the Bears' win total to a league-average 8.5. This should be a fun offense that has a history of scheming up touches for TE Sam LaPorta, who doesn't have the same pop as Loveland does to me. LaPorta was just 131st in best ball points last year while playing through injuries, but he's flashed more upside than that and there's not a confirmed stud WR in the room like there was in Amon-Ra St. Brown. Our film breakdown of him is here.
WR4 Jayden Higgins: His Early Round 2 film grade was confirmed by Houston after selecting him 34th overall to be Nico Collins' long-term running mate. His path to snaps is obvious, especially if 1-year-rental Christian Kirk is a slot-only receiver. Their battle for 2-WR set snaps will be the difference in Higgins being a bench stash to someone we can hold out FLEX hopes for. His fit in the offense is nice, as they won't routinely ask him to get in and out of breaks and instead let him run more runaway routes on play action shots to showcase his quality build up speed. Expect a bounce back season from CJ Stroud with better OL coaching and communication, and better injury luck at WR. Our film breakdown of him is here.
WR5 Emeka Egbuka: Everything about his profile screamed long-time NFL starter with some inside and outside versatility. He earned the Round 1 draft capital we expected, but Egbuka might have to wait his turn to fully break out even if he is the starting slot receiver. The front office said Egbuka's selection was a reflection of his own skillset, not Chris Godwin's injury recovery timeline nor Mike Evans' age. While those are two potential pathways to real targets, Egbuka is likely a distant tertiary option as a rookie in an offense that may regress without OC Liam Coen. As a reference point, rookie 3rd-rounder Jalen McMillan was 165th overall in a similar role with most of his production coming after Godwin was removed from the lineup. Our film breakdown of him is here.
TE2 Tyler Warren: There's no getting around it. The Colts were the worst realistic landing spot for Warren. The RPO nature of this offense will hide his in-development blocking and should keep him on the field for near full-time snaps as a rookie, but there is real target competition in a run-first offense without QB solved. Warren's strengths as a manufactured touch player are harder to project with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor handling everything on the ground and with Josh Downs and company handling things in the screen game. The Colts were 27th in pass attempts last year. We'll see if Warren's route running on intermediate routes is good enough to be a leading target. Our film breakdown of him is here.
WR6 Kyle Williams: It was unclear if the NFL was on board with Williams as much as the media was, and I'd say we got close enough with a 69th overall selection. I'll side with it being a good landing spot because we were lucky enough to land in New England, who has an emerging QB, capable play caller, and nobody of note on the pass-catching depth chart. It's unclear if Stefon Diggs will be ready for September (ACL), and I'll take my chances on Williams being the best rookie-contract receiver on the roster from Week 1. His release package, YAC ability, and straight line speed (4.40 forty) on vertical routes were impressive on tape, and I think they fit this offense perfectly. If he's good, he's getting the rock. It's the exact type of situation to target. Our film breakdown of him is here.
WR7 Tre Harris: The Ole Miss product snuck into Round 2 (55th overall) and lands in a great offense for his skillset. He was mostly stuck on the vertical plane where his length and speed showed up time after time. That'll be helpful attached to a rocket launcher QB who plays in a play-action based offense. But Harris did at least flash on his breaking routes on the occasion he was asked to run them. Harris has more skills than Quentin Johnston and more speed than Mike Williams, so he has a path to 2-WR sets by the end of the year. He'll likely be in a committee role early on, however. Our film breakdown of him is here.
TE3 Mason Taylor: The targets behind Garrett Wilson are completely up for grabs with a new coaching staff coming in. Taylor doesn't have elite traits, but he is extremely reliable and showed some nice juice near the 1st-down marker on tape. The Jets will need him in a full-time role early on based on their lackluster depth chart, and this Lions-based staff just had a lot of success with Sam LaPorta, who is pretty close in style and draft capital (42nd overall). Justin Fields is the primary drawback here, but New York at least has a stud starting 5 across the offensive line to keep him relatively upright and on schedule. Our film breakdown of him is here.
QB1 Cam Ward: He may not have been an S-Tier 1st overall selection, but Ward projects to the Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott tier of QBs eventually. His arm talent is on par with the rest of the top-12 QBs at the very least. His loose playing style needs to be reigned in to reach his potential, and for fantasy purposes, he needs to run more than he did in the pros. He's athletic enough to do so. What's impossible to ignore is the Titans' offensive supporting cast and unproven play caller. The Titans' win total is only at 5.5 for a reason. Ward needs to have some magic to sneak into top-15 fantasy status. Our film breakdown of him is here.
WR8 Jack Bech: This new staff doesn't have attachments to contract-year Jakobi Meyers or sprinter Tre Tucker, so a 58th overall pick on Bech does move the needle. His route running from inside and outside is that of a potential volume sponge, and he has underrated catch-and-run traits. There's a ceiling to chase here, but it's an interesting skillset overlap with Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, who both do similar things to varying degrees of success. In an offense that projects for top-10 carries, it's a bit hard to make the math work for targets as a rookie unless he overtakes Meyers earlier than expected. Our film breakdown of him is here.
WR9 Luther Burden: Whether we ever see Burden's 5-star traits is firmly up to him. He slid to 39th overall in the draft and will have to wait his turn to be a 2-WR set player after landing in a balanced offense with D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland already soaking up a lot of targets. Burden's option route work was only showcased in the slot, and he didn't play outside or run a variety of downfield routes in college. He profiles as a better in PPR type, but things will have to break his way to be a fantasy starter as a rookie. For reference, Odunze was 110th in best ball points as a rookie despite going a full round earlier. Our film breakdown of him is here.
TE4 Terrance Ferguson: The Rams traded down and made Ferguson their top draft pick in what is likely their last "all in" year with Matthew Stafford. He surprisingly went 46th overall after crushing the NFL Combine and showcasing some real straight-line speed on tape. There were also some really tough ball tracking moments on tape and generally needs some grooming. The Rams have some names in their TE room already--Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen--so it may take some time before he plays enough snaps to matter for fantasy football, however. And it'll be impossible to steal many looks away from Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Our film breakdown of him is here.