Underdog Fantasy has dropped my favorite fantasy sports game — NFL Playoffs Best Ball. You draft today for points only scored in the NFL Playoffs, with the final tournament prizes being handed out based on Super Bowl scoring. If your team doesn't have Super Bowl players, you won't win the top prizes. These are quick 6-person drafts with 10 rounds, so 60 players are drafted. The starting lineup consists of 1QB, 1RB, 2WR/TE, and 1 RB/WR/TE flex spot with 5 bench spots. The general guide for roster construction is 1–2QB, 3–4RB, 4–6WR/TE. Cool? Cool.

NFL Playoffs Best Ball Strategy

Rankings are mostly a useless exercise in this format because we are contingent-based drafting the entire time. In other words, each pick we make eliminates chunks of the player pool if we’re maximizing for projected points in our hypothetical Super Bowl matchups. For example, if we draft Lamar Jackson in Round 1, we should prioritize drafting his Ravens teammates (and NFC counterparts) in this draft in an attempt to get as many points in a Baltimore hypothetical Super Bowl. Because the Underdog Fantasy payouts are based on Super Bowl scores, we really should only be focusing on maximizing upside in the Super Bowl. Of course, there’s one caveat to this — the bye week. If we fully stack the Chiefs and Lions, then we aren’t going to advance past the first round of the tournament. If stacking both teams together, we'll need a full starting lineup for the first round.

Anyways, here are my uploadable rankings where you might have to change column "ID" to "id" for it to work.

Odds Of Going To The 2024–25 Super Bowl

One minor edge is to look at odds of winning the conference (not the Super Bowl) because the Super Bowl loser will still give us the fantasy points we need in the Super Bowl. Here are the implied odds of winning the AFC or NFC along with the average draft positions on Underdog Fantasy:

1. Chiefs (36% Odds Of Making Super Bowl)

Already blessed with a bye, there takes some preparation to navigate the first round of advancement and it's just about impossible to pair with anyone from the NFC bye team (very likely the Lions). The teams best stacked with are the Eagles, Vikings, and Packers, plus the highest-scoring players in the Wild Card round. In general, the Chiefs are underpriced to me because of their higher odds of being in the Super Bowl and their ascending offensive roster. Xavier Worthy has turned a corner. Hollywood Brown's speed has led to a 2.6 YPRR in his first two games. Travis Kelce always balls out in the NFL Playoffs. And there's a backup plan at LT with LG Joe Thuney shutting down All Pro EDGEs when Donovan Smith wasn't in the lineup. The Chiefs also have quality last-round options at RB and W/T with Noah Gray, Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Samaje Perine... Avoid them with the Texans, Steelers, Chargers, and Broncos for scheduling purposes.

2. Lions (33% Odds Of Making Super Bowl)

They are on pace for the NFC's bye, but this team is slightly trending in the wrong direction because of their injuries, mostly on the defensive side. We'll see if they have enough talent to stop the 3 really strong NFC offenses. Anyways, the Lions are best paired with the Bills and Ravens -- it's just hard to imagine the Wild Card teams in the AFC making the Super Bowl -- and the highest-projected players in the Wild Card round... Avoid them with the Packers, Vikings, Commanders, and Falcons for scheduling purposes.

Galaxy Brain Strategy: Stack Chiefs-Lions with exactly 5 players after starting with Jahmyr Gibbs (Round 1), Patrick Mahomes (Round 2), and then whoever fits in the 2 W/T spots and then remaining FLEX spot. It's actually really easy to do, and Gibbs will significantly out-project the Chiefs' RBs and Mahomes will significantly out-project Goff. Here's an example draft using the ADP on December 26th:

1. RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs (5th overall)

2. QB1 Patrick Mahomes (10th)

3. W/T1 Travis Kelce (16th)

4. W/T2 Puka Nacua (20th)

5. RB2 Kyren Williams (26th)

6. W/T3 Hollywood Brown (32nd)

7. RB3 Kareem Hunt (41st)

8. QB2 Jayden Daniels (44th)

9. RB3 Bijan Robinson (53rd)

10. W/T4 Drake London (57th)

3. Bills (27% Odds Of Making Super Bowl)

The Bills are best paired with the Lions, Eagles, Vikings, and Packers, and there aren't many restrictions in making it happen. Josh Allen's projections are so high, especially with the Bills defense struggling against top teams, that there's really no point in drafting another QB. It's a blessing and a curse that his weapons are all in a full-blown rotation. Not even Dalton Kincaid is playing over Dawson Knox right now. In terms of projected points, it's James Cook, Khalil Shakir, and then everyone else. Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper will lose snaps to Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel. Cook will lose pass-game snaps to Ty Johnson and power situations to Ray Davis. I wish I had clearer answers for you... Avoid them with the Ravens and the No. 7 seed in the AFC for scheduling purposes.

4. Eagles (25% Odds Of Making Super Bowl)

Best paired with the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens, the Eagles offer elite players without much depth, so you'll know if you're stacking them within the first 15 picks. Jalen Hurts (3rd overall) and Saquon Barkley (4th) are basically impossible to stack, and Hurts will be extremely popularly stacked with A.J. Brown (9th) and DeVonta Smith (13th). That's totally okay, but it's pretty disastrous to have Hurts without one of the WRs. In general, the Eagles' roster is fantastic and they'll host all games aside from a potential NFC Championship game in Detroit (a dome without a healthy defense). I personally believe the Eagles are slightly underrated as a team with so much critiquing of their pass game, which is 8th in passing EPA per play from Weeks 6-15 when Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown were healthy. They're also 10-0 when Hurts, Brown, and Smith have been healthy this year... Avoid them with the Rams and Commanders for scheduling purposes.

5. Ravens (24% Odds Of Making Super Bowl)

This is a team ascending. Since Week 11 when they reshuffled their secondary to put All Pro Kyle Hamilton to free safety and Marlon Humphrey into the slot, they've been 1st in EPA and success rate on defense. Meanwhile, the offense's peak is the best in football. This is arguably the best team they've rostered, but their path isn't easiest as they'll have to go into Buffalo and Kansas City to reach the Super Bowl. They're best stacked with the Lions, Eagles, Packers, and Vikings... Avoid them with the Bills and Chargers for scheduling purposes.

6. Vikings (16% Odds Of Making Super Bowl)

The surprise team of the year will have to win on the road with a relatively boom-bust offense and defense. At their best, this is an explosive offense with the best downfield passing attack in football and a creative defense with the best blitz package in football. For fantasy purposes, it's a straight-forward operation with a clear first, second, and third read in the pass game and largely just one running back. It's just a matter of Sam Darnold not throwing that key interception. They're best stacked with the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens... Avoid them with the Falcons and Eagles for scheduling purposes.

7. Packers (14% Odds Of Making Super Bowl)

I'll buy this stock. The Packers are well coached on offense and built for the NFL Playoffs. They can run the ball with power and throw over the top to create leads and mount comebacks. Their defense is jelling under a new play caller, too. The Packers' upset odds on the road are easier to imagine with the Lions, Eagles, and Vikings seeming worse than the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens in the other conference. Those latter three teams are the ones to stack with. It's just a matter of picking the correct stacking partners for Jordan Love aside from Josh Jacobs. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs get the most playing time, but Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft are in the mix. Throw in a Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, or Emanuel Wilson if you're feeling spicy... Avoid them with the Rams and Lions for scheduling purposes.

Super Bowl Long Shot Odds

The rest of the playoff teams sit at below 8% odds of making the Super Bowl and are best only viewed as helpful pieces in the first three rounds of the tournament. For that reason, let's not waste our time here and just use the rest of these players and teams as supporting cast members for the Super Bowl favorites above.

• Rams (7%)

• Falcons (6%)

• Commanders (5%)

• Chargers (5%)

• Steelers (5%)

• Texans (5%)