Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:
1. Josh Allen - Bills vs. DEN (27.25 team total, -7.5 spread)
Week 8 was a masterclass with spread and RPO concepts. Week 9 was a disaster thanks to DC Loa Anarumo mixing looks and forcing Allen to hold onto the ball longer. Week 10 shouldn't be an issue with DC Vance Joseph calling a more vanilla defense. Allen is still tied for 1st in fantasy points per game despite some costly turnovers. The Bills offense is 4th in points per drive despite being 7th-worst in percentage of drives ending in a turnover. That's basically the same as last year.
2. Joe Burrow - Bengals vs. HOU (27.25, -7.0)
I don't see any lingering effects of the calf, and neither do Burrow's numbers. In his last 4 games, Burrow is averaging 283 yards and 2.5 passing TDs on 7.2 yards per attempt with a few scrambles mixed in. The only issue now has been a heavy reliant on short, outside throws rather than finding a bunch of deep targets. The Texans have shootout potential on offense and the No. 24 passing EPA defense. This is a good spot for the Bengals, who are 2nd in projected points this week, assuming Ja'Marr Chase (back) and Tee Higgins (hamstring) are okay.
3. Dak Prescott - Cowboys vs. NYG (27.75, -16.5)
According to Sports Info Solutions, the Giants play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. Well, Dak Prescott happens to have the highest success rate, most EPA, and 2nd-most yards per attempt against Cover 0, Cover 1, and 2-Man this year. Seems good!
4. Lamar Jackson - Ravens vs. CLE (22.25, -6.0)
Lamar absolutely diced up the Browns on very limited volume in Week 4. In fact, it was the most run-heavy game plan of the Ravens' season to date. Cleveland remains elite on defense with No. 1 or No. 2 marks in every category but rushing EPA allowed (7th), so it's not a surprise Baltimore's team total sits at 22.25 points despite being at home. Lamar will need to keep some of his goal line zone reads for scores to get back into the QB1 overall discussion. It's been all Gus Bus in recent weeks.
5. Justin Herbert - Chargers vs. DET (22.75, +3.0)
The Lions play with a middle of field open look at the 2nd highest rate with a lot of zone defense underneath. Herbert has been 23rd in success rate against these defensive coverages on a slightly negative EPA. Those are worrisome splits with the Chargers missing their Pro Bowl C and top-2 field stretchers. The good news is the Lions are still missing starters in their own secondary and have an offense capable of running through Herbert's defense. He'll need someone to step up with an explosive (Quentin Johnston Challenge) to get into the elite QB1 tier. Los Angeles probably doesn't have the juice right now until Herbert starts playing like an MVP candidate. It's been weeks since we've seen that.
6. Jared Goff - Lions @ LAC (25.75, -3.0)
The Chargers are dead last against fantasy QBs, and the Lions are 4th in projected points. It's likely Detroit runs more in the red zone with David Montgomery returning, but this is a bright spot for yards and big plays through the air. Goff is also returning two interior linemen from injury. It's good timing with the Chargers having three strong pass rushers now (4th in sack rate).
7. Geno Smith - Seahawks vs. WAS (26.0, -6.5)
I'm tired, too. Geno has been busting seemingly every week. Yet here we go again. The Seahawks' primary trouble has been the 3rd-highest rate of negative passing plays inside the red zone. They have the size and play caller to perform well there, so I think that's just something that'll regress. This week, they get a Commanders defense that's 30th against the pass and suddenly without their top EDGE rushers. Smith's backup RT will at least be facing backup EDGE rushers, while DK Metcalf should be able to eat against a tiny, poor-coached secondary. If this ranking feels aggressive, I'd encourage a bet on the Seahawks' 25.75-point team total. That's 4th-highest on the week.
8. C.J. Stroud - Texans @ CIN (20.5, +7.0)
With Dameon Pierce out and Devin Singletary struggling, we finally saw the Texans #LetStroudCook last week. Did it work? I hear it did. Hopefully Stroud becomes a top-10 pass attempt QB the rest of the way because his aggressiveness and accuracy downfield is special. The Bengals experienced DC is worrisome, but this game has the 2nd-highest over under of the week for a reason.
9. Kyler Murray - Cardinals vs. ATL (21.0, +1.5)
He's completely off the injury report and should be fully unlocked over a year removed from a torn ACL. The Cardinals are actually trying to win right now, and the Falcons over-achieving defense took a hit last week when they lost stud DT Grady Jarrett. Arizona is getting some respect in the betting markets with a 20.75-point team total, which is around league average. We should expect the Cardinals to be well ahead of their No. 31 neutral pass rate now, but we're certainly in the wild west here. Just remember that with NFL scoring down, Kyler doesn't have to be his peak self to be fantasy relevant right now.
10. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars vs. SF (21.5, +3.0)
11. Brock Purdy - 49ers @ JAX (24.5, -3.0)
As mentioned previously, the Jaguars DC has openly said they're selling out to stop the run and daring teams to pass it. So far, opposing offenses have obliged. Purdy will be without All Pro LT Trent Williams against an emerging DL, but he's at least healthy in the skill group with potentially more pass attempts than normal. The Niners are 6th in projected points despite Purdy's regression with turnovers. Purdy was getting lucky with avoiding interceptions for months, a remarkable feat because Kyle Shanahan fuels deep-middle throws that have high odds of big plays and interceptions.
12. Russell Wilson - Broncos @ BUF (19.75, +7.5)
The Bills' yards per pass attempt have gone from 6.8 to 7.6 without CB1 Tre'Davious White, and they're missing All Pro LB Matt Milano over the middle, too. The Broncos prefer to be balanced on offense, but they might not have a choice here with the Bills offense projected for the most points on the week. Russ is the QB14 this year because he's leading the NFL in touchdown rate (6.9%). His yardage should go up in negative game script here, especially out of the bye.
13. Sam Howell - Commanders @ SEA (19.5, +6.5)
Washington is letting Howell cook, handing him the 2nd-highest neutral pass rate of the month. This is just a tough spot for him. Traveling to Seattle is never fun, and with S Jamal Adams on the field, the Seahawks' yards per pass attempt allowed has gone from 6.3 down to 5.3. This is a feisty secondary in general. At least, Howell's sack avoidance has improved in recent weeks, which is surprising because the Commanders have put two OL starters on IR in the last three games.
14. Gardner Minshew - Colts @ NE (22.5, -1.5)
15. Baker Mayfield - Bucs vs. TEN (19.75, -1.0)
16. Taylor Heinicke - Falcons @ ARI (22.0, -1.5)
Coach Arthur Smith said he wants to see Heinicke again before the Falcons go into their bye, so his in-game bench odds are lower than expected. This is a great spot if Drake London (groin) is back in the lineup, as the Cardinals defense remains a mess and now have the QB on offense to create shootouts. Atlanta's 22.0-point team total is above average.
17. Kenny Pickett - Steelers vs. GB (21.0, -3.0)
18. Joshua Dobbs - Vikings vs. NO (19.0, +2.5)
19. Will Levis - Titans @ TB (18.75, +1.0)
20. Mac Jones - Patriots vs. IND (21.0, +1.5)
21. Derek Carr - Saints @ MIN (21.5, -2.5)
22. Deshaun Watson - Browns @ BAL (16.0, +6.0)
His arm talent is fine after launching multiple accurate deep passes last week, but the general feel for the offense seems to be lacking. This week, things get tougher against Baltimore's No. 1 fantasy QB defense, and Watson will be doing so without both of his starting OTs now that Jedrick Wills (knee) is on IR. Only the Tommy DeVito Giants have a lower team total this week.
23. Bryce Young - Panthers @ CHI (17.5, +4.0)
24. Jordan Love - Packers @ PIT (18.0, +3.0)
25. Tyson Bagent - Bears vs. CAR (21.5, -4.0)
26. Zach Wilson - Jets @ LV (18.75, -1.5)
27. Aidan O'Connell - Raiders vs. NYJ (17.25, +1.5)
28. Tommy DeVito - Giants @ DAL (11.0, +16.5)
I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.
Christian McCaffrey - He's averaging 25.1 half PPR on 19.2 expected half PPR this year. Seems good. Jacksonville has allowed the most receptions to RBs this year, too. 17.25 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Austin Ekeler - He's had at least 20.0 half PPR points in 3-of-5 healthy games, even with the Chargers offense taking a step back with injuries (most importantly to C Corey Linsley). The Lions are 3rd-best against fantasy RBs this season, but with Josh Palmer injured too, Ekeler is a favorite for 20+ touches regardless of the matchup. 13.45 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Jonathan Taylor - Last week was a massive success. 74% snaps, 5 targets, the lone goal line opportunity, and 16.2 expected half PPR points with Zack Moss officially being demoted to backup duties. The Colts project for an above-average 22.5 points against the Patriots' injured defense.
Breece Hall - The Jets remain a total mess, so Hall will have to rip off big plays to maintain RB1 production. He's been the RB8 on RB18 usage this month as the clear starter thanks to some long scores. Hall's odds of hitting one are up. The Raiders are 5th-worst against fantasy RBs, allowing 118 rushing yards per game. 86.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Josh Jacobs - The vibes are immaculate with interim HC Antonio Pierce, who is an #EstablishIt lobbyist and Jacobs truther. Last week's 33% neutral pass rate was the lowest of the season, leading to 19.4 expected half PPR points. Even if they're forced into more passes, rookie Aidan O'Connell is more likely to check down to Jacobs than Jimmy G. He's the RB4 in usage this month, and his vision on tape last week was elite stuff. 90.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Travis Etienne - He's the RB3 on RB6 usage this month, but this is a tough matchup. The 49ers are only allowing 64 rushing yards per game to RBs on the 3rd-highest neutral pass rate, meaning opposing offenses are choosing to pass the ball against this iffy secondary. Keep in mind San Francisco added EDGE Chase Young at the trade deadline, too. Jacksonville's 21.5-point team total is lower than normal. Etienne's usage is still way too strong to not remain fairly optimistic. 14.85 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Tony Pollard - Can he find the end zone with Dallas projected for 27.5 points on a 16.5-point spread? That's between you and The Lord. 14.05 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Joe Mixon - Cincy has the highest team total (27.5) of the week, and Mixon is the RB7 in usage this month with 19.1 expected half PPR points in his last 4 games. With Burrow healthy, Mixon's odds of a TD are way up. Adjust. 90.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Aaron Jones - The Packers are a mess because of their inexperience, so it's Jones' time to be the clear cut foundation. He had a season-high 20.0 expected half PPR points with the lone goal line carry over the thumping AJ Dillon. Jones' matchup with the Steelers, who just added run-stuffing DT Cam Heyward, isn't kind. Neither is the Packers' 18.0-point team total. 12.55 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Kenneth Walker - This is no longer an elite workload for Walker, as Post-Bye Rookie Bump Zach Charbonnet is playing almost all of the passing downs and mixing in for carries as well. That said, Walker is still the favorite for goal line carries and 14+ touches weekly on a team projected for 26.0 points at home against a Commanders defense that traded two quality EDGE players. Game script is on his side as 6.5-point favorites. Give me the higher on his RB16 usage from this past month. 10.85 half PPR points in Pick'em.
David Montgomery - Jahmyr Gibbs deserves more touches than what he was seeing early in the season, but there are still two skillsets that are quite predictable. Montgomery should be at full health as the locked-in goal line back on a team projected for 25.5 points (5th highest). He's also more trusted in pass protection, so a few dump-off targets can't be ruled out. Gibbs will probably eat into some of Montgomery's early-down carries between the 20s now. In their healthy games together, Montgomery has 18.7 expected half PPR points to Gibbs' 9.4. Things seem headed towards closer to 11-14 half PPR points a piece with high-leverage plays (big screens, goal line carries, explosive runs) likely deciding who sneaks back into the RB1 mix. The Chargers have been good against the run (3.6 YPC) but have allowed the 2nd-most RB receptions per game (7.25). 69.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Alvin Kamara - Last week's 11.3 expected half PPR points were half of his typical usage for a few reasons. Taysom Hill's red zone package is a threat. Jamaal Williams' first-half usage was new. And the Vikings' unique blitzing defense is forcing throws at the 6th-highest rate in neutral situations while holding RBs to the 4th-fewest receptions because they have to stay in to pass protect. From HC Dennis Allen via Coachspeak Index: "I think in a perfect world scenario, those snaps are getting evened out a little bit. And, yeah, it is a 17-game season and you want to keep guys healthy throughout the year, and we have other good players in the backfield. Obviously, Alvin’s still a huge part of what we do offensively and is gonna be a major factor. But, I think with a lot of these positions, the ability to kind of have a little bit of a rotation where guys can kind of spell other guys, I think is important." 13.65 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Jahmyr Gibbs - See RB12 David Montgomery. 62.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Derrick Henry - The Titans have been more run heavy without Ryan Tannehill, and they've remained steadfast in giving The Big Dog his carries even with Post-Bye Rookie Bump threat Tyjae Spears available. He's the RB6 on RB21 usage this month, with 14.6 expected half PPR points in the two games with Will Levis. This week, the Bucs are a tough test, as offenses have the 2nd-highest neutral pass rate against Tampa Bay's pass funnel. They've allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to RBs on 3.8 YPC without a single rushing score. 12.75 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Saquon Barkley - The Giants have the lowest team total of the entire season (11.0), but Barkley projects for 25-40 touches as the entire offense. That's not even an exaggeration. He's the RB9 on RB2 usage this month with awful QB play. This would be a lot more fun if the Giants weren't running him into the ground with a long-term contract. Shame! 13.05 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Rhamondre Stevenson - The Colts have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to RBs, and Stevenson is heating up. He's now the RB14 on RB19 in usage this month and ripping off nice plays on tape. The Patriots should begin phasing Zeke out now that their season is over, and Stevenson's 6 targets last week weren't a coincidence with Kendrick Bourne out. New England's 21.0-point team total is league average.
Bijan Robinson - He's the RB25 on RB25 usage this month removing the headache game, as Arthur Smith continues to trust (and compliment) Tyler Allgeier in short-yardage situations which has meant Allgeier dunking on Bijan with inside the 5-yard line opportunities this year, 8 to 1. Robinson has looked good, aside from last week's fumble, so he at least has a chance for big plays against the Cardinals' No. 30 fantasy RB defense. They've allowed 13 total TDs to RBs, so it's not a bad matchup for the BYU product. 12.55 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Rachaad White - He had a season-high 23.5 expected half PPR points with both goal line opportunities converting into TDs last week, but this is another animal with Tennessee. The Titans are a slight pass funnel, yet have only allowed just 2.9 RB receptions per game (2nd-fewest). That's where White's stayed afloat this year, so he'll have to break this matchup trend to stay hot. He's the RB10 on RB12 usage this month. 12.65 half PPR points in Pick'em.
D'Onta Foreman - Khalil Herbert (ankle) was eligible to return from IR and was a full participant in practice, but he's still not expected to play. Neither is Justin Fields. Foreman has 11.8 expected half PPR points as a starter in what has been a 3-RB committee. The Panthers are 31st against fantasy RBs on by far the worst rushing EPA allowed, so Foreman is in a good spot for at least one more week. Roschon Johnson and Darrynton Evans will mix in behind him.
James Conner (Questionable) - The Cardinals team captain is eligible off IR, and my read on the situation is this team is trying to win and establish a culture. That means plenty of Conner if he's healthy. Full practices will be key here, but he's a clear buy low with Kyler Murray making this offense watchable again. Conner had 14.9 half PPR points on 13.6 expected half PPR points in his 3 healthy games in a worse environment this year. The Falcons' run defense takes a big hit without DT Grady Jarrett. 9.95 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Najee Harris - Don't tell anyone, but Najee looks pretty solid right now! He's the RB18 on RB17 usage this month with the offense healthier. The Steelers host the iffy Packers, who have the highest neutral run rate allowed on defense. Harris is the favorite for early-down and goal line carries, while Jaylen Warren has between 6.0 and 10.1 expected half PPR points in every game this year as an explosive passing down complement. Game script and matchups lean Harris this time around. 10.05 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Javonte Williams - He's a positive game script hammer playing in Buffalo as 7.5-point dogs. It's not an ideal environment, though the Bills are allowing 4.6 YPC to RBs and remain Matt Milano-less. Williams is the RB20 on RB13 usage this month with 11.5 and 20.0 expected half PPR points in his two most recent games, both wins. He has 9.0 expected half PPR points in his four losses. 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Chuba Hubbard - It's not really working, but Hubbard has 15.4 and 13.8 expected half PPR points in his two games as the starter over expensive backup Miles Sanders. On a short week, we shouldn't expect many changes to the offense. Hubbard has a chance to establish it against the Bears, who have allowed 152 more receiving yards to RBs than the 2nd-worst defense in that category. It's a sign of despair that the Panthers only project for 17.5 points against Chicago on Thursday Night Football.
Gus Edwards - The Ravens have the best ground game in the NFL by a wide margin, and Gus Bus is finishing off drives and 42-yard runs with physicality and an underrated jump cut. The emergence of Keaton Mitchell is the new wrinkle here. Edwards (6'1"/238) won't lose the goal line role to Mitchell (5'8"/191), but Mitchell could eat into some of the early-down work after dressing up as De'Von Achane for Halloween last week. Realistically, Mitchell threatens Justice Hill (5'9"/197) more. Edwards is only the RB20 in usage this month even with huge positive game scripts, so there's not a lot of room to lose touches here, especially in full PPR. I love Gus Bus. I also think he's a sell high before facing an elite Browns defense. 52.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Alexander Mattison - He's averaging 12.2 half PPR points in 4 games without Cam Akers (IR), but those were with Kirk Cousins, not dual-threat QB Josh Dobbs. Mattison faces the Saints' No. 4 fantasy RB defense this week on a below-average 19.0-point team total. Remember, Mattison's 3.9 fantasy points below expected per game are among the worst in the NFL. 8.75 half PPR points in Pick'em.
James Cook - A 27.25-point team total against the Broncos (32nd vs. fantasy RBs) is still not enough to have a ton of faith in Cook, now that the Bills are 31st in RB usage this month while using a 2-RB rotation with the threat of Committee Lenny at any point. Cook is the RB28 on RB35 usage this month. 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jerome Ford - Only the Giants with Tommy DeVito project for fewer points than the Browns this week. Ford has lost the goal line job to the thicccccer Kareem Hunt (5 to 0 on inside the 5-yard line opportunities since the bye), so he'll have to make his way with explosives and receptions. Those will be harder to come by with both starting OTs out long term. Hopefully Pierre Strong gets completely phased out here. 9.15 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Brian Robinson - The Commanders are 2nd in neutral pass rate this month and only project for 19.5 points in Seattle, who just addressed with their iffy run defense by trading for star DT Leonard Williams at the deadline. Robinson is TD-or-bust, even if Chris Rodriguez isn't involved right now. He's the RB21 on RB36 usage this month. 8.95 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Tyler Allgeier - See RB17 Bijan Robinson.
Devin Singletary - Dameon Pierce (ankle) was a DNP on Wednesday. Singletary busted on 10.9 expected half PPR points as the clear starter last week, after the offense bailed on the run after getting stuffed early. Houston should #LetStroudCook right now, but at least Singletary profiles as the potential goal line back. Mike Boone and fill-in kicker Dare Ogunbowale back him up.
Jaylen Warren - See RB20 Najee Harris.
Zack Moss - See RB3 Jonathan Taylor.
Kareem Hunt - See RB26 Kareem Hunt. 5.05 half PPR points in Pick'em.
Tyjae Spears - See RB14 Derrick Henry.
AJ Dillon - See RB11 Aaron Jones.
Ezekiel Elliott - See RB16 Rhamondre Stevenson.
Miles Sanders - See RB22 Chuba Hubbard.
Zach Charbonnet - See RB11 Kenneth Walker. 41.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Keaton Mitchell - See RB23 Gus Edwards.
Joshua Kelley - See RB2 Austin Ekeler.
Antonio Gibson - See RB27 Brian Edwards. 29.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jamaal Williams - See RB12 Alvin Kamara.
Rico Dowdle - See RB7 Tony Pollard.
Justice Hill - See RB23 Gus Edwards.
Roschon Johnson - See RB18 D'Onta Foreman
Jaleel McLaughlin - See RB22 Javonte Williams.
Samaje Perine - See RB22 Javonte Williams.
Keaontay Ingram - See RB19 James Conner.
Latavius Murray - See RB25 James Cook.
Ja'Marr Chase (Questionable) - Tee Higgins (hamstring) had a setback, was ruled out, and deemed "week to week". That's really tough for the Bengals, who've been firing with a healthy Burrow. Now Chase can go into true Sicko Mode. Chase averaged 16.6 expected half PPR points and more slot work in the 4 games Higgins was banged up. Tyler Boyd averaged 7.7 over that same span as a distant No. 2 option. Both have upside while hosting the feisty Texans. 86.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Stefon Diggs (Questionable) - It's never fun to go up against CB1 Patrick Surtain with a healthy safety duo, but the Broncos have been exposed more times than not this season (32nd in passing EPA still). Even when Allen struggled last week, Diggs still scored late with a 2-point conversion to top things off. He's the focal point of the offense no matter what. 86.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
CeeDee Lamb - He's the WR1 on WR1 usage this month with the offense putting Lamb outside for more advantageous matchups. Prescott has lit up man coverage, which the Giants play at a league-high rate, and Lamb is their best man beater. Lamb should light up Adoree Jackson (concussion) and the rookie CBs, provided the defense doesn't score a couple touchdowns themselves. 77.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Keenan Allen - No Big Mike. No Josh Palmer. No Quentin Johnston (figuratively). If the Chargers are hanging with the high-scoring Lions, it's because Allen is going off. He'll see some rookie NCB Brian Branch and backups on the perimeter with multiple Lions starters on IR. The Lions play middle of field open coverage (read: 2 high safeties) with zone underneath at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. That screams underneath passes to a veteran like Keenan. 80.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - The Chargers are 29th against fantasy WRs, with big games allowed to semi-slot WRs Tyreek Hill (39.0 half PPR), K.J. Osborn (10.1), CeeDee Lamb (15.2), and Rashee Rice (14.5) in particular. The only downside right now is David Montgomery's red zone dominance in the offense. Amon-Ra's expected points have dropped from 15.0 to 11.3 with Montgomery healthy this season. That's also likely not that sticky. Carry on. 83.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Pittman - No Josh Downs, nor Andrew Ogletree, opens up more targets for Pittman whomstth is already the WR11 on WR18 usage this month. The Patriots are just 25th against fantasy WRs this season thanks to injuries across the defense, and Indy's 22.5-point team total is above average once again. The potential downside here is the Colts' tanking neutral pass rate (27th) now that Jonathan Taylor is fully healthy. 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Diontae Johnson - He's the WR10 on WR10 usage this month, with 20.1 and 12.1 expected half PPR points in his last two contests. The Steelers are still frustrating but are at least moving the ball now, and even Diontae is scoring TDs. A miracle! The Packers defense put two starting DBs on IR this month, and CB1 Jaire Alexander (DNPx2) hasn't practiced this week with a new shoulder injury. The downside here is teams facing Green Bay are choosing to run the ball at the highest rate in the NFL. Truth is, the defense is bad in both phases. 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DK Metcalf - "Fool me twice, can't get fooled again" - George Bush. That's where we are with Metcalf, who is the WR37 per game this year while running poor in the red zone yet again. It'd make more sense if the 6'4"/230 superhuman was going nuts in the end zone, but here we are. The Seahawks' 26.0-point team total is ripe for positive regression, and that's what Metcalf is. He's been the WR44 on WR6 usage this month. Come on. 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Evans - It's an eruption spot for the Bucs passing offense with the Titans run defense stronger than their secondary, one that happened to just trade away star S Kevin Byard and could be without CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (DNPx2). Tampa is 11th in neutral pass rate this month and can inch towards top-5 based on matchup. 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Garrett Wilson - This month, Wilson is the WR15 on WR3 overall usage, and it's certainly felt that way. At least Zach Wilson is giving his alpha a chance to alpha, and the Raiders are primed to get alpha-ed in the secondary. 4-of-5 "elite WRs" Las Vegas has faced has scored double-digit half PPR points this year. 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Marquise Brown - He averaged 7-81-0.5 in his first 6 games with Kyler Murray last season before they were injured and DeAndre Hopkins entered the fold. Those are upside WR2 numbers, and we've seen this Cardinals team at least move the ball with backups and this promising coaching staff. The betting markets have the Cardinals with a league-average 21.0-point team total. It's go time. 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandon Aiyuk - All 4 weapons are healthy this week, so the bust odds are higher than normal. That said, Jacksonville has openly admitted they are selling out to stop the run, which has led opposing offenses to pass the ball at the 5th-highest rate in neutral situations. Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell and FS Andre Cisco are both on the injury report right now, too. 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeAndre Hopkins - He's the WR8 on WR17 this month, thanks to some long TDs in Will Levis' debut. The good news is Levis will keep giving Hopkins chances, especially with Treylon Burks (concussion) out. Tampa Bay is 31st against fantasy WRs on the 2nd-highest neutral pass rate, and CBs Carlton Davis (DNPx2) and Jamel Dean (concussion) are on the injury report. 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett - The Commanders have allowed eight (8) different WRs score 15.0+ half PPR points, and most of them are downfield threats like Metcalf and Lockett, who is the WR27 in usage this month. It's a clear start week for the entire offense. 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Olave - He scored a TD and caught more underneath targets last week, but he remains the WR28 on WR8 usage this month. Long reception regression is his calling card right now, and the Vikings' heavy-blitz defense will open up opportunities downfield. Hopefully Carr can hit him this time around. The Vikings are 20th against fantasy WRs. 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tank Dell - This assumes Nico Collins (limited-DNP) is out with a new calf injury and Robert Woods (DNP-limited) is also banged up. That'd leave Stroud with Dell, Noah Brown, and John Metchie. Dell has been an inconsistent big play threat with higher odds of hitting home if the Texans' season-high 61% neutral pass rate from last week continues. The Bengals provide shootout potential.
Chris Godwin - The big play ability has been harder to find post knee surgery, but Godwin can still win underneath for a team in a pass-heavy matchup. This month, he's the WR35 on WR15 usage and remains one of the biggest positive regression candidates in the TD department. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Calvin Ridley - Because the Niners offense is so good and their run defense is so threatening, offenses facing San Francisco have the 3rd-highest neutral pass rate allowed. Ridley has a talent advantage on the perimeter, where star LB Fred Warner doesn't roam. Ja'Marr Chase (100 yards), Jordan Addison (123), Amari Cooper (104), Marquise Brown (96), and Puka Nacua (147) have popped up against the No. 27 fantasy WR defense recently. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Christian Kirk - 49ers slot CB Isaiah Oliver is 8th-worst in snaps per reception out of 128 qualifiers. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Davante Adams - A new play-caller attached to a Day 3 rookie QB opted for a season-low 33% neutral pass rate last week, which obviously tanked Adams' production. They were also winning by a million, something we can't expect moving forward. Adams' task is difficult this week against stud CB1 Sauce Gardner, but AOC has targeted Adams on 27% of his targets this season while having a "short dropback" on a shocking 85% of his attempts. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jordan Addison - No Justin Jefferson. No K.J. Osborn. And even T.J. Hockenson (ribs) is on the injury report. Addison has a tough individual matchup with CB Marshon Lattimore and the Saints' No. 11 fantasy WR defense here, but at least Dobbs will know more of the playbook. The rookie had 8.3 expected half PPR points last week (WR36 equivalent) when Dobbs was scrambling and hitting his TEs, rather than throwing to the perimeter. 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Terry McLaurin - The Commanders are 1st in neutral pass rate this month, leading McLaurin to a WR12 ranking in usage. Things are easier for McLaurin and Jahan Dotson if Curtis Samuel (limited x2) is out again because the Seahawks' secondary is now pretty nice, allowing just 5.3 yards per attempt with Jamal Adams (and CB Devon Witherspoon) in the mix. 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Courtland Sutton - The Broncos being TD dogs to the Bills likely means more volume than normal for Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, who are both outside the top-50 in expected points this month. Sutton has been getting home with an outlier level of TDs, but he's also the better player straight up. Buffalo isn't the same without CB1 Tre'Davious White and LB Matt Milano. In fact, their yards per pass attempt is up to 7.6 without them. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Deebo Samuel - In the 4 games together, Aiyuk has 10.1 expected half PPR points to Deebo's 10.0, but Aiyuk has been the more efficient player and is healthier right now. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Drake London - He was a full participant on Thursday after missing last week with a groin injury. 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amari Cooper - The Browns' 16.0-point team total is intimidating, even if Deshaun Watson's shoulder looked completely fine on tape last week. The Ravens are 5th against fantasy WRs, and CB1 Marlon Humphrey should be back to full health now. Downfield shots will be harder to hit without both starting OTs, too. Cooper is a dog, however. 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Boyd - See WR1 Ja'Marr Chase.
Gabe Davis - He was rug pulled with Allen uncomfortable against a disguising Bengals defense, but the Broncos are far more vanilla. In fact, Denver is 32nd in passing EPA and 25th in sack rate. Allen should be comfortable here with a week-high 27.0-point team total. 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy - See WR25 Courtland Sutton. 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Pickens - 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Demario Douglas - 10.8 and 8.2 expected half PPR points without Kendrick Bourne (IR) as the new PPR scam. That's equivalent to WR34 usage. This week, the Colts are likely without rookie CB JuJu Brents (quad), but Douglas has been limited in practice (ankle). 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zay Flowers - Baltimore is 27th in WR usage this month because the ground game is balling. Cleveland has the lowest neutral pass rate allowed on defense and funnels targets towards the sideline. It's a lot to ask of a rookie with CB1 Denzel Ward looming, especially when Flowers is the WR52 in expected half PPR points this month. 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Thomas - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Noah Brown - He's the WR20 on WR39 usage this month, and Nico Collins is trending the wrong way this week.
Christian Watson - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - He's more involved now than before, but JSN still is averaging 6.3 expected half PPR points in his three most recent games with Metcalf. The Commanders are also so bad on the perimeter that JSN may be overlooked over the middle and underneath. 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jahan Dotson - Curtis Samuel is back. Dotson had 12.4 and 10.0 expected half PPR points without him, equating to WR15 usage, but those days are likely over. Seattle is just a tough defense in the secondary. 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashid Shaheed - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandin Cooks - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jakobi Meyers - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Romeo Doubs - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Quentin Johnston - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Khalil Shakir - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Reynolds - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trenton Irwim - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Curtis Samuel - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Odell Beckham - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Wilson (Questionable) - He's been limited with a shoulder in practice after missing last week. 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Elijah Moore - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jayden Reed - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
JuJu Smith-Schuster - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darius Slayton - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandon Powell - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jameson Williams - 16.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jalen Guyton - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mark Andrews - He's hit 12.3, 16.8, and 17.8 expected half PPR points in his last three games but Gus Bus has been the TD scorer. That could change at any time with Andrews popping up as the very clear top pass catcher again. In Week 4 against Cleveland, Andrews had a 5-80-2 on a 26% target share. He's also been the only TE to move the needle at all against the Browns, who invite the run in neutral situations and throws to the sideline when forced to throw. That's typically not a good formula here. Andrews is just that dude. 47.5 yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Kincaid - He's the TE4 on TE4 usage (11.9 exp half PPR) this month with Dawson Knox sidelined, and the Broncos are allowing the 3rd-most points per game to TEs. Kincaid has great TD odds with Buffalo projected for 27.25 points, too.
Sam LaPorta - He's averaging 11.1 half PPR on 9.7 expected half PPR this year, but the Lions are getting back goal line hammer David Montgomery this week. The Chargers have allowed 4 TEs to reach 6+ receptions this season, however, and Detroit has a very strong 25.5-point team total.
Taysom Hill - He's the TE2 on TE1 usage (15.2 exp half PPR) this month while operating as the Saints' red zone wild cat QB. Will the Saints trust him against the Vikings' unique defense? There's uncertainty here, but obviously upside.
Dalton Schultz - This was shocking to me, but the Bengals have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to TEs. Schultz is up to the TE5 on TE6 usage (11.1 exp half PPR) this month, and the Texans are coming off an electric game where they had their highest neutral pass rate of the season. Stroud is throwing the ball over the middle more than anyone right now. I've heard that's where TEs live.
Evan Engram - Zay Jones (knee) is still not ready to return. That's the primary good news for Engram's status because the 49ers are on deck. They're 5th against fantasy TEs with absolute unit Fred Warner playing over the middle where Engram gets a lot of designed plays. He's the TE11 on TE10 usage this month. 47.5 yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle - Expected half PPR points: With both Aiyuk and Deebo (5.0), with just one of them (9.8). We're back to splitting reps between 4 studs, and this time without LT Trent Williams against emerging EDGE Josh Allen. As always, Kittle can go nuts. He also has more bust odds than the NFL's elites because of circumstances.
Jake Ferguson - He's coming off a season-high performance, where he was making yards-after-catch plays just after making a leaping TD grab up the seam the week prior. Ferg Daddy aka Fergie aka A$AP Ferg looks like a TE1 moving forward, especially with the Cowboys projected for the most points this week. 36.5 yards in Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson (Questionable) - He's been limited (ribs) in practice, but if healthy, Josh Dobbs is a TE's best friend. Hockenson had his highest usage of the year with him last week and Dobbs targeted his TEs in Arizona heavily, too. The Saints have allowed just 3.7 receptions per game to TEs, but Cole Kmet at least them for 2 scores last week.
Trey McBride - Since Zach Ertz's (IR) injury, McBride has a team-high 34% target share, including a Week 8 performance that led to the most expected half PPR points of any TE in any week this year. The Cardinals with Kyler are now projected for 21.0 points, which is the highest it's been this year. McBride is an underrated fantasy asset with some upside.
Logan Thomas - He's averaging 7.0 targets, 5.5 catches, and 55 yards in the Commanders' 4 losses. They're 6.0-point dogs to the Seahawks this week.
David Njoku - Expected half PPR: First 5 games (4.6), last 3 (12.1). The difference is the Browns project for 16.0 points this week, only ahead of the Giants. I've liked the Njoku designed screens, which may provide a floor for him in an impossible matchup. Baltimore has allowed 33.7 yards per game to TEs this year. Sheesh. 33.5 yards in Pick'em.
Kyle Pitts - He's the TE18 on TE13 usage this year, but at least Drake London (limited on Wednesday) is banged up and the Falcons' team total is up to 22.5 points against the Cardinals. Pitts just needs to come down with his downfield targets.
Cole Kmet - He's had 9, 0, 79, and 55 yards with Tyson Bagent, scoring 2 TDs over that span (both well designed plays). Kmet is a fine option, sitting at TE15 on TE14 usage this month. The Bears have a 20.75-point team total against Carolina, who have allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs because they've been so bad against the run.
Hunter Henry - He had a season-high 10.1 expected half PPR points last week with Kendrick Bourne sidelined. Henry is the primary red zone target, and New England's 21.0-point team total is respectable at home against the Colts. Indy is 9th-worst against fantasy TEs, too.
Jonnu Smith - He's up to TE13 on TE15 usage this month.
Cade Otton - He's up to TE14 on TE13 usage this month.
Kylen Granson - No Josh Downs (knee) helps a lot.
Luke Musgrave - 26.5 yards in Pick'em.
Gerald Everett - 27.5 yards in Pick'em.
Irv Smith - TD-or-bust with a history of busting.
Noah Fant - TD-or-bust with Seattle's 26.0-point total.
Tyler Conklin - Season-high 11.0 exp half PPR in Week 9.
Juwan Johnson - 23.5 yards in Pick'em.
The fantasy football defenses of Week 10 are the Cowboys (vs. NYG), Ravens (vs. CLE), Bucs (vs. TEN), Jets (vs. LV), Raiders (vs. NYJ), Seahawks (vs. WAS), Steelers (vs. GB), and Saints (vs. MIN).
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.