Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:
1. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs vs. PHI (24.25 team total, -3.0 spread)
Andy Reid is 21-3 coming off a bye week, and the Chiefs had areas of potentially improve upon with some self scouting. This is very likely a very Mahomes-led game plan (as usual) with the Eagles better against the run than the pass. In fact, offenses facing the Eagles have the highest neutral pass rate, leading to a No. 28 ranking against fantasy WRs. He had 3 passing TDs on his highest postseason completion rate and 44 rushing yards against Philly in the Super Bowl. Ever heard of it?
2. Jalen Hurts - Eagles @ KC (21.75, +3.0)
Hopefully Hurts' knee is acting better coming off the bye because his QB designed rushing has taken a dip this season. Removing QB sneaks (which he's always good at), Hurts' designed rushing yards per game has dropped from 25 to 15 per Sports Info Solutions. That trend is live to turnaround against a rushing defense that's 30th in EPA allowed. The Chiefs defense is strong through the air, so a more balanced offensive approach could await for a typical pass-heavy offense. It's also possible this new play-caller has fixed some issues coming out of the bye.
3. Lamar Jackson - Ravens vs. CIN (24.75, -3.5)
The fantasy production hasn't been at an elite level this year because the offense isn't featuring his legs as much. From 2019-22, Lamar averaged 48 rushing yards on 7 QB designed runs per game per Sports Info Solutions. This year, that's down to 26 yards on 5 QB designed runs. That said, the Ravens are at least passing the ball more in neutral situations with new OC Todd Monken, and the Bengals defense is in a tough spot on the road on a short week with injuries. Even without all that, Cincy is 30th in success rate allowed.
4. Josh Allen - Bills vs. NYJ (23.25, -7.0)
The OC firing seemed panicked with dumb turnovers actually at fault, but it's hard to see the offense changing much in the middle of the season. New OC Joe Brady has his hands full with Allen's struggles against this studly Jets defense. Allen is averaging 206 passing yards with a 4-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio in his last four games against them, with 58 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs. A larger portion of QB runs wouldn't be a surprise with the Bills under a lot of pressure.
5. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins vs. LV (30.0, -13.5)
The Dolphins have the highest team total (30.0) this week, by far. Miami is back at home against a bad defense that hasn't played this offense before. In Mike McDaniel games outside the division, the Dolphins average 8.6 yards per attempt on 6.5% passing touchdowns, compared to 6.3 YPA on 3.5% TDs in the 10 games inside the AFC East. The Raiders haven't faced McDaniel yet.
6. Dak Prescott - Cowboys @ CAR (26.5, -10.5)
The Cowboys are more pass-heavy now than they've been since 2022, and it's certainly working. Dak is on fire with an upgraded pass-catching group and less-potent ground game. Carolina has been so bad against the run (and on offense) that they've been really good against fantasy QBs, but Prescott is on a legit MVP run right now (especially against bad teams). Their team total sits at the 5th-highest of the week.
7. C.J. Stroud - Texans vs. ARI (27.0, -5.0)
It's still a balanced offense in neutral situations, but at least the ground game worked fairly well last week while Stroud continues to host a downfield dart party. The Cardinals are 5th-worst in passing EPA allowed and the betting markets are ready to fire, giving the Texans (yes the Houston Texans with a rookie QB) the 3rd-highest team total of the week. Stroud, who is unquestionably a top-10 NFL QB already in my opinion, is returning his X-receiver in Nico Collins this week, too.
8. Justin Fields - Bears @ DET (20.25, +7.5)
2-of-3 Fields games with at least 130 rushing yards came against this Lions defense last year. Detroit has improved their front seven this season, but negative game script breeds scrambling production, the Lions will score points at home, and dual-threat Lamar hung 38 points on them earlier this month. Before his injury, Fields looked more composed to me behind a better OL and with a true No. 1 WR. As long as his throwing thumb injury is healthy (full practice on Friday), Fields' odds of career best passing numbers down the stretch of the season are fairly high. He has more upside and lower floor than this tier of QBs.
9. Sam Howell - Commanders vs. NYG (23.5, -9.5)
This is a great spot for Howell to continue on as a frisky QB1-2 option. The Commanders are 1st in neutral pass rate, and the Giants are so bad against the pass that offenses facing New York pass the ball at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL. Howell is very aggressive against man coverage (10.5 aDOT per Sports Info Solutions) and has the WR vs. CB advantage with a struggling Adoree Jackson and rookie CBs in the secondary. Washington's team total is parked at an above-average 23.5 points for a reason.
10. Brock Purdy - 49ers vs. TB (26.75, -12.0)
As usual, the Niners' team total is elite (4th highest) but this week they host a notorious pass funnel. Offenses facing Tampa pass at the 2nd-highest rate in neutral situations, leading to the 5th-most fantasy points to QBs. Purdy was on fire last week with a fully healthy supporting cast, and this team isn't as run-heavy as they've been in previous seasons. In fact, they're 12th neutral pass right now.
11. Jared Goff - Lions vs. CHI (27.75, -7.5)
The Lions own the 2nd-highest team total of the week, but once this team gets to the red zone, they have one of the highest run rates in the NFL, especially with David Montgomery back. Goff still has 3 games of 300+ passing yards and is capable of dicing up a Bears defense that's 31st in passing EPA allowed. In two games last year, Goff had 255-3-0 and 236-1-0 passing lines as the team dropped 41 and 31 points. The addition of EDGE1 Montez Sweat should at least improve the Bears' league-worst sack rate down the stretch.
12. Joe Burrow - Bengals @ BAL (21.25, +3.5)
In 2021, Burrow had a legendary 525-4-0 passing game against Baltimore. In his games since then it's been a relative struggle, throwing for 217-1-1, 215-1-0, 222-2-1, and 209-1-0. The NFL has relatively slowed this offense down by forcing an outlier amount of short, outside throws, especially with downfield threat Tee Higgins missing from the offense. It's harder for Burrow to reach the elite QB1 tier with a dink-and-dunk approach. Baltimore ranks 1st against fantasy QBs, 2nd in passing EPA, 3rd in sack rate, and 5th in neutral run rate. All of that has sent Cincy's team total to just 21.25 points.
13. Kyler Murray - Cardinals @ HOU (22.0, +5.0)
He had 3 QB designed runs in his rebut, adding multiple vintage scrambles in the process. It was unfortunate, though predictable, that this QB-sneaked coaching staff subbed in the bigger and healthier Clay Tune for tush push opportunities. Kyler's debut could've been bigger if his accuracy and comfortability in the pocket was at his usual level, but he missed Marquise Brown on a would-be touchdown. This week's matchup isn't the cake walk it appears on paper. Houston hit a home run with EDGE1 Will Anderson and returned CB1 Derek Stingley last game. It's impressive that Arizona's team total is at 22.0 points. That's promising for their fantasy appeal down the stretch.
14. Justin Herbert - Chargers @ GB (23.5, -3.0)
No C Corey Linsley, WR Mike Williams, WR Joshua Palmer, WR Jalen Guyton, TE Gerald Everett. This is a decimated skill group for the Chargers, who've played into their opposing defense's weaknesses throughout this season. The Packers are awful against the run typically, so a more balanced game plan wouldn't be a surprise here.
15. Matthew Stafford - Rams vs. SEA (24.0, -1.5)
He fully practiced this week, and the betting markets are optimistic giving the Rams a 24.0-point team total (7th highest). Seattle is improving in the secondary, but Stafford was an upside QB2 before his thumb injury. He's the sneaky play of the week.
16. Joshua Dobbs - Vikings @ DEN (20.0, +2.5)
17. Geno Smith - Seahawks @ LAR (23.75, -1.0)
18. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars vs. TEN (23.5, -7.0)
19. Jordan Love - Packers vs. LAC (20.5, +3.0)
20. Russell Wilson - Broncos vs. MIN (22.5, -2.5)
21. Bryce Young - Panthers vs. DAL (16.0, +10.5)
Throw The Ball Challenge.
22. Baker Mayfield - Bucs @ SF (14.75, +12.0)
23. Will Levis - Titans @ JAX (16.5, +7.0)
24. Aidan O'Connell - Raiders @ MIA (16.5, +13.5)
25. Kenny Pickett - Steelers @ CLE (16.0, +1.0)
26. Zach Wilson - Jets @ BUF (16.25, +7.0)
27. Dorian Thompson-Robinson - Browns vs. PIT (17.0, -1.0)
28. Tommy DeVito - Giants @ WAS (13.5, +9.5)
I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.
Christian McCaffrey - The Bucs are averaging 70 scoreless rushing yards per game to RBs, as a notorious pass funnel. CMC, last time I checked, can catch passes. 17.65 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Austin Ekeler - It's just him and Keenan. 16.65 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Josh Jacobs - In 3 Aidan O'Connell starts, Jacobs is averaging an elite 20.8 expected half PPR points. He's done it with 26 and 27 carries in wins with this new RB-dominant coaching staff (37% neutral pass rate). He's also posted an 8-81-0 receiving game with AOC in a loss, something he'll need to showcase as major road dogs to the high-scoring Dolphins. 87.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Travis Etienne - He had a season-low 8.2 expected half PPR points against an elite rushing defense last week, and things don't get much better here against the pass-funnel Titans. Etienne had 7-for-17 and 17-for-32 rushing lines (2.0 YPC) without a score against Tennessee last year. 14.75 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Tony Pollard - Oh boy, the Panthers are 2nd worst against fantasy RBs and Dallas is 5th in projected points if you can stomach the pain. Pollard has been stuffed at the goal line and hasn't shown the big-play burst while playing in a new rushing system. We've also seen the Cowboys pass more recently. 13.55 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Brian Robinson - The Commanders are 1st in neutral pass rate this month, but luckily B-Rob had two broken-play long receptions last week. They weren't designed looks, so it's hard to trust that production. In fact, Robinson is just the RB36 in usage this month. This week's matchup with the Giants is very solid, as they're 2nd-worst in rushing yards and and 2nd-worst in rushing touchdowns to RBs. Washington has a 23.5-point team total as 9.5-point favorites. That's the game script he needs. No Antonio Gibson (toe) helps. 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Javonte Williams - He's running really hard on tape and is now the RB2 overall in usage this month, with the Broncos defense allowing the offense to stay in neutral situations. Denver is 3rd-lowest in neutral pass rate, and Russ is flicking dumpoffs to Javonte on early downs even if he's not a full-time player. This week, Javonte is 2.5-point home favorites against the Vikings, though Minnesota has held RBs to just 3.6 YPC this season. 13.75 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Devin Singletary - The Cardinals are 3rd-worst against fantasy RBs, and Houston's team total is 3rd-highest this week. Singletary has been better this year, especially after last week's game with 19.5 expected half PPR points. Singletary was able to stay patient on a few inside runs but more importantly broke the Bengals contain on the perimeter for explosive runs. Dameon Pierce (ankle) is out after not practicing all week. 89.5 total yards in Pick'em.
D'Andre Swift - This is an eruption spot with the Chiefs allowing 4.6 YPC to RBs and looking especially bad with LB Nick Bolton (elbow) out. His fill-in starter, Drue Tranquill, is only 234 pounds and was exposed at times in his recent starts. In fact, the Chiefs YPC allowed goes from 3.6 up to 5.5 with Tranquill on the field per Sports Info Solutions. A run-heavy approach out of the bye wouldn't be a surprise. 12.55 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Breece Hall - He's averaging 16.0 half PPR points on 13.6 expected half PPR in his 5 clear starts, and there's a chance he'll see more pass-game involvement with Michael Carter (15 passing downs per game) released. As usual, a worrisome 16.5-point team total awaits Hall, but at least the Bills have allowed the most EPA per play since Week 5 when Matt Milano exited with a season-ending injury. 11.05 fantasy points in Pick'em.
De'Von Achane (Questionable) - I wish he was more than limited all week coming off his knee injury, but the Dolphins are projected for the most points on the week (29.25) against the Raiders, who are allowing 4.5 YPC and the 7th-most fantasy points to RBs. Vegas has been gassed by speedsters Jahmyr Gibbs (189 yards) and James Cook (159), too... Raheem Mostert has slowed down with explosives recently, but in their last 3 games together, Achane averaged 15.1 expected half PPR points to Mostert's 12.7. 67.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jahmyr Gibbs - With both active and balling, the Lions deployed Monty and Gibbs in an even committee, as they rotated drives throughout the game. Monty started the game. Gibbs started the second half. Both had elite cutback explosive runs and goal line opportunities, and OC Ben Johnson gave them the types of touches that play to their strengths. Detroit's OL is healthier now, too, leading to the 2nd-highest team total (28.25) of the week. The Bears are only allowing 3.1 YPC to RBs after spending the offseason and trade deadline adding front-seven meat. I still like the Lions odds. 72.5 total yards in Pick'em for Gibbs.
David Montgomery - See RB5 Jahmyr Gibbs, but it's #RevengeGame SZN. 62.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Raheem Mostert - See RB8 De'Von Achane. 69.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kenneth Walker - He's dipped to RB22 usage this month with Post-Bye Rookie Bump Zach Charbonnet playing in the 2-minute drill and rotating in for drives himself, but Walker is still a big-play freak with a 3-to-0 touch advantage inside the 5-yard line this month. Walker's big play odds are up against a Rams defense allowing 4.3 YPC to RBs. Seattle's 23.5-point team total is above average. 11.45 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Saquon Barkley - The first Tommy DeVito game wasn't supposed to happen, so the offense literally only gave Saquon the ball. Since then, DeVito is throwing the ball, lowering Saquon's expected half PPR points to 11.7 and 12.6 in the last two unwatchable weeks. Things look a bit better this week against the Commanders without Chase Young and Montez Sweat, but no RT Evan Neal and possible no LT Andrew Thomas (limited x3) up front. 12.45 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Aaron Jones - The Chargers were just lit up on the ground against Detroit (6th worst against fantasy RBs) and are particularly bad against receiving backs (2nd most receptions allowed). In the two games since being unleashed post-hamstring, Jones has 20.0 and 15.3 expected half PPR points with A.J. Dillon occasionally mixing in. The Packers' below-average 20.5 team total and his lack of burst right now keep him out of the RB1 discussion right now. He was limited in practice all week with that lingering hamstring injury. 11.95 fantasy points in Pick'em.
James Conner - He played 63% snaps, 42% routes, and was the goal line back in his return, but the rushing TDs went to Kyler Murray (zone read keeper) and tush push QB Clayton Tune instead. Bad luck. Conner had a couple of nice runs in a better-coached offense, so there's RB2 upside in good matchups. The Texans are league average or better in all rushing metrics. 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Joe Mixon - Even with last week's season-low usage, Mixon is the RB10 on RB10 expected half PPR points this month because Burrow is simply playing better. A Ravens matchup is rough (league average 21.25 team total), as he's had 95, 56, 68, and 88 total yards with one touchdown in his games against them in the last two years.
Derrick Henry - The Titans 16.75-point team total is 6th worst, and the Jaguars DC has said they sell out to stop the run. Jacksonville's commitment to the bit has led them to the 5th-fewest rushing yards allowed and the most RB receptions. That plays against Henry's strengths of course. He's been the RB22 on RB18 usage this month, mostly with Will Levis at QB. 11.65 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Rachaad White - The Bucs team total, while playing in San Francisco, sits at 15.0 points. The good news is White is a great receiving back in check-down mode and he's up to RB7 usage this month. 73.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Gus Edwards - The Bus remains the lead and goal line back, but Keaton Mitchell continues to earn more schemed-up work. Mitchell's touches were two draws, one screen, one wheel route, and one end-around carry, so there's no evidence they fully trust him. That said, the results are impossible to argue with, at least in the context of Justice Hill is still playing on offense. Expect Edwards to be the goal-line hammer, while Mitchell has a zero-floor role with the upside of long scores. It's worth noting the Ravens are more pass heavy in October and November than they were in September.
Isiah Pacheco - A goal line bailout is always possible, but the Eagles are allowing 53 rushing yards per game and 3.5 YPC to RBs this year. It's by far the best fantasy RB defense. 11.25 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Darrell Henderson - The Seahawks are 5th-worst against fantasy RBs, though they just added DT Leonard Williams. Henderson will operate as the starter and favorite for receiving work, while thiccccccc Royce Freeman is the better pure rusher and threat at the goal line. Having Stafford back is huge, while Kyren Williams (ankle) is one week away from availability. Henderson had 14.9 and 9.9 expected half PPR points with Stafford to Freeman's 5.3 and 6.5. 59.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Khalil Herbert - Assuming he's healthy, Herbert and D'Onta Foreman (limited x3) will battle for early-down work while Roschon Johnson can mix in on passing downs. It's very likely to be a full-blown committee with unclear goal line odds, especially with the Lions ranking 2nd-best against fantasy RBs.
James Cook - He's the RB23 on RB32 usage this month while losing almost every single goal line touch to Latavius Murray. Cook's explosiveness keeps him in the mix, though ex-OC Ken Dorsey was more run heavy than previous Bill play callers. 9.25 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Najee Harris - He's the RB15 on RB13 usage this month with the offense at least having a pulse before the red zone. In fact, the Steelers are 4th in EPA per carry and 4th in success rate since their Week 6 bye. Of course, the Browns are somewhat of a problem. They're daring teams to run the ball (45% neutral pass rate) while allowing 4.0 YPC to RBs at the very least, but Pittsburgh projects for just 16.0 points. This remains a near-even committee, with Warren coming off a season-high 12.9 expected half PPR points. 8.75 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Jaylen Warren - See RB23 Najee Harris. 8.55 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Chuba Hubbard - ESPN Analytics have the Panthers and Bucs run blocking as the worst, and it certainly feels that way. Hubbard is the RB40 on RB19 usage this month, while playing ahead of Miles Sanders. The Panthers offense (only projected for 15.75 points) has virtually no shot against the Cowboys, so Hubbard will need to PPR scam his way into relevancy here. Carolina is coming off a season-high 67% neutral pass rate. 51.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jerome Ford - He's the RB25 on RB28 usage this month, but things trend negatively with Day 3 rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson filling in for the injured Redacted QB. The Browns' team total has dropped to just 18.0 points, and the Steelers added stud DT Cam Heyward a few weeks ago. With him on the field, Pittsburgh is allowing 2.8 YPC on 32 attempts (small sample alert). Ford's the pass catcher and explosive ground game option, but Kareem Hunt (RB20 on RB30 usage) consistently vultures at the goal line because he's a more physical rusher. 9.75 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Alexander Mattison (Questionable) - Before leaving last week's game with a concussion, Mattison lost drives and a goal line opportunity to the more-explosive Ty Chandler. This is back to a committee backfield, this time with a dual-threat QB and a lower team total. Mattison went from DNP to limited to full in practice this week, so he's likely ready for a real role, but some teams have been cautious coming off speedy concussion recoveries. This is a spot to avoid if possible, pending last-minute reporting.
Royce Freeman - See RB31 Darrell Henderson. 49.5 total yards in Pick'em.
AJ Dillon - See RB12 Aaron Jones. 40.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ty Chandler - See RB31 Alexander Mattison.
Rico Dowdle (Questionable) - See RB10 Tony Pollard.
D'Onta Foreman (Questionable) - See RB27 Khalil Herbert.
Kareem Hunt - See RB27 Jerome Ford. 6.55 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Miles Sanders - See RB30 Chuba Hubbard.
Tyjae Spears - See RB18 Derrick Henry. 42.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Keaton Mitchell - See RB24 Gus Edwards.
Jerick McKinnon - See RB26 Isiah Pacheco.
Zach Charbonnet - See RB15 Kenneth Walker.
Tyreek Hill - In Mike McDaniel games outside the division, the Dolphins average 8.6 yards per attempt on 6.5% passing touchdowns, compared to 6.3 YPA on 3.5% TDs in the 10 games inside the AFC East. The Raiders haven't faced McDaniel yet. 90.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
CeeDee Lamb - He's the WR1 overall on WR1 overall usage this month with the Cowboys passing more and using Lamb on the perimeter, allowing him to work more downfield. On tape, Lamb is very clearly better this year than he was last year. Meanwhile, the Panthers are without CBs C.J. Henderson (concussion) and Jaycee Horn (hamstring). 82.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - The Bears are 31st in passing EPA allowed. 84.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Keenan Allen - This could be a more balanced approach because the Packers are so bad against the run, but he's the WR6 on WR12 usage this month with Herbert playing some of his worst ball. Don't expect the other TEs or WRs to step up. It's just Keenan and Ekeler right now. 85.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ja'Marr Chase - 80.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - He'll see rookie CB Devon Witherspoon in the slot with Stafford (full practices) back. The betting markets are optimistic, given the Rams' 22.75-point team total while playing at home. He's averaged 12.0 expected half PPR points on 9.5 targets in 4 games with his starting QB. 83.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
A.J. Brown - They've been 3rd in passing EPA allowed, but at least the Chiefs play man defense at the 6th-highest rate where AJB shreds. He had a 6-96-1 receiving line in the Super Bowl when Kansas City was using single high coverage more often. 85.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Stefon Diggs - The Jets are 1st against fantasy WRs, but at least Diggs popped up for 10-102-1 back in Week 1. In his previous games against them, Diggs had 3-37-0 and 5-93-0 receiving lines. It's notable that his 73.5 receiving yards in Pick'em is far less than normal. I don't think there will be major schematic changes with a new OC halfway through the season.
Davante Adams - A 32% target share with AOC is a recipe for targets as 13.5-point dogs. He had 13 of them in a close win last week. 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Waddle - See WR1 Tyreek Hill, noting Waddle is the WR21 in usage this month. 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandon Aiyuk - Offenses facing the Bucs have the 2nd-highest neutral pass rate, leading to a 29th overall ranking against fantasy WRs. Aiyuk has obvious upside appeal, but it's at least worth noting he's coming off a season-low 4.9 expected half PPR points with the entire skill group back and sits at WR42 in usage this month. 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DK Metcalf - Only converting 1-of-11 contested catches has been the difference in the red area and downfield this season, but Metcalf remains a big-play threat on WR6 overall usage this month. He had a 3-47-1 receiving line in a blowout loss against the Rams back in Week 1. Things should be way better now, especially if they return their starting RT Abe Lucas (limited x2). Metcalf also isn't listed on the injury report again. 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Nico Collins - This assumes he is ready to go (limited x2) and future Hall of Famer Noah Brown (DNP x2) is out. The big-bodied outside WR1 in this offense has averaged 14.0 half PPR points, and the Cardinals play single-high coverage more than most, meaning there are big plays available for an offense that's 4th in WR usage. Arizona is 29th in passing EPA allowed. 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tank Dell - He's coming off a season-high 22.2 expected half PPR points in last week's shootout. This is an eruption spot against an inexperienced and talent-empty secondary. No Noah Brown (DNPx2) would be big. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Puka Nacua - The rookie absolutely lit up the Seahawks (10-119-0 on 15 targets) back in Week 1 but that was without S Jamal Adams and CB Devon Witherspoon. In 4 games with Stafford and Kupp, Nacua is averaging 11.9 expected half PPR points on 9.3 targets. 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DJ Moore - The biggest difference between Moore's status with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent has been more downfield opportunities, as his aDOT went from 12.9 yards downfield to 9.9 with the backup. 7.5-point dogs in a dome with some Lions' backups in the secondary, Moore has upside again. Detroit is 22nd against fantasy WRs. 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Terry McLaurin - The Giants play the most man coverage in the NFL, and McLaurin leads the team with a 1.9 yards per route run against single-high coverage compared to Curtis Samuel's 1.4 and Jahan Dotson's 1.2. The Commanders' 61% neutral pass rate this month has helped McLaurin rank 9th in fantasy usage. New York is 30th against fantasy WRs, and Adoree Jackson (DNP x2) and Deonte Banks (limited x2) are on the injury report. 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Adam Thielen - The Cowboys are 2nd against fantasy WRs, but at least the Panthers are passing more and Dallas plays zone coverage at the 3rd-lowest rate. Carolina is a D-II team against zone this year, with Thielen's yards per route dropping from 2.4 against man to 1.6 against zone. 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Marquise Brown - His day looks a lot different if Kyler doesn't miss him in the end zone. With Kyler back, the Cardinals project for a respectable 22.0 points on the road against a hit-and-miss No. 25 passing EPA secondary, though they just returned CB1 Derek Stingley. Michael Wilson (questionable) seems very iffy to play, too. 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeVonta Smith - His target share without Dallas Goedert has been 39% this year and was 27% last year per Sports Info Solutions. With him this year, Smith sits at 18%, so this is a big deal. He'll still need big plays to pay off with the Eagles run-first red zone offense, and the Chiefs are far worse against the run than the pass. That said, Smitty posted a 7-100-0 game on 9 targets in the Super Bowl. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Courtland Sutton - He's the WR13 on WR24 usage this month as the Broncos' best skill player by a wide margin. Denver's bottom-5 neutral pass rate makes him more volatile than others, but Sutton is a machine in the red zone right now. The Vikings are 25th against fantasy WRs while opposing offenses pass at the 6th-highest rate. I like his chances in man coverage. He's averaging a team-high 2.4 yards per route with 5+ pass rushers. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Evans - Dog, the Bucs project for fewer than 15.0 points this week! That said, it's typically the RBs and TEs that get completely shut down, while the 49ers rank 21st against fantasy WRs. 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Deebo Samuel - It's been awhile, but Deebo is averaging a respectable 12.4 half PPR points in his 6 healthy games. Last week, Samuel had RB touches, screens, end arounds, and real targets. 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Christian Kirk - No Zay Jones (limited x2) and Jamal Agnew (DNP x2) means Kirk remains an upside WR3 in this dink-and-dunk offense behind a poor OL. The Titans are a pass funnel and just 26th against fantasy WRs on the 28th passing EPA allowed. 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeAndre Hopkins - Jacksonville dares offenses to pass on them, and Hopkins is their lone option with Treylon Burks (DNP x2) dealing with a concussion. Hopkins is the WR12 on WR13 usage this month thanks to a few unsustainable deep touchdowns on the mega-arm of Levis. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Garrett Wilson (Questionable) - He's been limited all week with an elbow injury and has "hurdles to clear". Sounds like a legit injury to me. 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amari Cooper - Dorian Thompson-Robinson wasn't ready in his first start (one without a lot of lead time), so he should do better here. That said, the Steelers are a tough draw for an inexperienced Day 3 rookie. Cooper is a total baller still, and Pittsburgh is at least missing star S Minkah Fitzpatrick while ranking 27th against fantasy WRs this year. 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Boyd - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashee Rice - He's a Post-Bye Rookie Bump candidate after running a route on 56% of routes before the bye, compared to Justin Watson (72%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (64%), and Skyy Moore (31%). It'd be a great week to implement him into a bigger role against the Eagles' league worst fantasy WR defense, aside from the fact he's earned it. Rice's 2.2 yards per route run removing screens and jet sweeps lead the Chiefs WR group. 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Calvin Ridley - It's not good when George Pickens in Matt Canada's offense is running more routes over the middle. That said, the Titans perimeter CBs are rough. 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Godwin - He had a season-low in usage last week while battling an illness and hasn't been a big-play threat for much of this season. A pass funnel defense does keep a potential PPR scam alive, despite a 14.75-point team total in San Francisco. 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zay Flowers - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Diontae Johnson - Pat Freiermuth returns to the lineup, and the Steelers are getting their ground game going. Both of those work against Diontae's typical high-end volume. Now he'll make the most of a matchup with CB1 Denzel Ward and the No. 1 passing EPA defense. 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jordan Addison - Justin Jefferson (limited x3) is out, while K.J. Osborn (full) returns. It'll be a tough matchup against CB1 Patrick Surtain on the road, as a large chunk of Addison's targets have been near the sideline.
Tyler Lockett (Questionable) - He's the WR24 on WR24 usage this month in a totally fine matchup with the Rams, but Lockett didn't practice at all this week and was called day-to-day by Pete Carroll. He's legit questionable. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - See WR35 Tyler Lockett. 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandin Cooks - With more pass attempts available, Cooks is up to the WR14 on WR40 usage this month after a season-high 12.9 expected half PPR points. His big-play ability is popping with Dak's newly-found aggressiveness, but the Panthers are 2nd in zone defense rate while using two-high shells at the 7th-highest rate. Cooks' yards per route drop to 0.9 against two-high zone defense. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Christian Watson - He's the WR41 in usage this month, but Watson has to be better than 2-of-13 on contested catches to win in his shot play role. At least Jordan Love is playing a bit better and the Chargers are trotting out the worst back seven rotation in the NFL right now. 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Romeo Doubs - He's the WR37 on WR36 usage this month. 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jahan Dotson - He's averaging just 6.6 expected half PPR points in games with Curtis Samuel. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Curtis Samuel (Questionable) - See WR20 Terry McLaurin.
Quentin Johnston - No Gerald Everett. No Jalen Guyton. Donald Parham is also playing with an injury. It's truly now or never for QJ, who has been one of the worst WRs in the NFL this season. The Chargers have no choice but to give him targets today. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jayden Reed - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jakobi Meyers - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gabe Davis - This is a bad matchup for Gabe. He's posted 32, 31, and 33 receiving yards against the Jets, who have two stud outside CBs. That's why they are 1st against fantasy WRs. 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Pickens - The Steelers are 29th in plays and 23rd in neutral pass rate this month. If Pickens' wasn't a sideline monster, then he'd be completely unplayable. The Browns are usually okay with prayer targets near the sideline. Beating CB1 Denzel Ward on the perimeter isn't a game I like to play. 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy (Questionable) - He popped up on the injury report with a hip injury, going from unlisted to limited to full. It shouldn't be an issue for him. The Vikings' man coverage does play against Jeudy's strengths as a receiver. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tutu Atwell - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trenton Irwin - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Reynolds - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Odell Beckham - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Gallup - 20.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonathan Mingo - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Justin Watson - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashod Bateman - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darnell Mooney - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Elijah Moore - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Travis Kelce - OMG. Taylor Swift's parents are expected to meet Kelce's parents at Monday Night Football. Do you really believe he's NOT hanging 100 yards and a score??? He's averaged 14.1 half PPR points on 12.3 expected half PPR points this year. 75.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson - He has a 40% target share with Josh Dobbs at QB, who also targeted his Arizona TEs at a 31% rate. With Justin Jefferson likely another week away, it's go time again.
Mark Andrews - His 21% targets per route run are down compared to previous years, and his average depth of target is at a career-low 7.3 yards downfield. It's a product of a new offense with better target competition, but we're also seeing the Ravens pass more in neutral situations this month. In recent games with the Bengals, Andrews has 5-73-0, 5-45-1, 8-89-1, and 8-125-1 receiving lines, while Cincy has allowed 71+ yards to TE1s in each of their last 3 games. 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trey McBride - The second-year breakout has an elite 32% target share without Zach Ertz, leading to 20.2 and 8.6 expected half PPR points in his two starts without Clayton Tune tanking. McBride's athleticism is flashing on tape, and Kyler looked functional in his return. He's already lightyears better than the Cardinals' No. 2 and No. 3 WRs, so a healthy target rate is expected, especially against the Texans who've allowed the most receptions per game (7.1) to the position. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Kincaid - He's the TE5 on TE6 usage this month with at least 11.0 half PPR points in every game since his Post Bye Rookie Bump. Because of their outside CB strength, the Jets have been a mini funnel towards TEs this season, allowing the most TDs (6) to the position. 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz - In the last 6 games, Schultz is averaging 12.7 half PPR points on 10.0 expected half PPR points, eerily similar to Mark Andrews' numbers this year. Now the Texans' team total has adjusted all the way up to 26.5 points (3rd most this week), and Noah Brown and Robert Woods haven't practiced this week.
Jake Ferguson - The positional leader in expected receiving TDs, Ferg Daddy aka A$AP Ferg aka Fergie aka Turd Ferguson is the TE3 on TE3 usage this month. The Cowboys offense is balling through the air on an increased neutral pass rate. Ferguson is flashing on tape imo and should ride the Cowboys' 26.25-point team total to another strong finish. 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Sam LaPorta - He's the TE10 in usage this month with the ground game and Amon-Ra taking over games. That's the threat with goal line hammer Monty back in the lineup, but the Lions have the 2nd-highest team total of the week and the Bears are 8th-worst against fantasy TEs. He's the TE7 in yards per route this season. 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle - He's averaging just 5.1 expected half PPR points in the 5 games with Aiyuk and Deebo healthy (compared to 9.8 with one missing), but as we saw last week, Kittle's big play ability is always hard to fade. There is little separating the TE2 from the TE9 in my rankings. Kittle just happens to see the least volume by a considerable margin for reasons beyond his control. 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Evan Engram - His average depth of target is 3.7 yards downfield, 2nd lowest at the position. It's what's wrong with the Jaguars offense in my opinion and reason for concern this week. The Titans are worst downfield against WRs, while allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to TEs. Engram has been a consistent TE1-2 borderline player without a ceiling this year with Zay Jones (questionable) sidelined. 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cole Kmet - He's averaging 9.5 half PPR points on 8.0 expected half PPR points this year as a borderline TE1 who has run hot on TDs (after doing so last season). Compared to DJ Moore, Kmet was fine with checkdown-artist Tyson Bagent (20% targets). The return of Fields opens up more seam-stretching opportunities. He has a 19% target rate with QB1.
David Njoku - No Deshaun Watson really hurts his upside paths, but Njoku (TE4 usage this month) is also a yards after catch monster with a lot more designed targets to him in the screen game. We discussed this on Stats vs. Film this week. 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Logan Thomas - The Commanders pass-heavy ways will be challenged as 9.5-point favorites against the Giants non-existent defense. Thomas has been a TE1 in blowout losses and a TE2 in wins. This month, he's the TE15 in usage. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Luke Musgrave - It's been impossible to overcome the injuries and QB misfires during his rookie season, but Musgrave remains a big play threat and the Chargers have allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs this season. 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Mayer - The Raiders lost FB Jakob Johnson recently and have since pivoted to more 2-TE sets, allowing Mayer to be on the field more. Still, his 67% route share from last week isn't enough to be a fantasy TE1 option yet. 17.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Conklin - He's the TE17 on TE17 usage this month. 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cade Otton - He's the TE13 on TE14 usage this month, but the Bucs project for 15.0 points this week. Rough! 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Higbee - The return of Matthew Stafford helps, but he's the TE28 in usage this month with Puka and Kupp seeing all the looks. 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Pat Freiermuth - He was a full participant coming off a hamstring injury.
Donald Parham (Questionable) - Gerald Everett is out, but Parham only was DNP-limited-limited in practice.
The fantasy football defenses of Week 11 are the Cowboys (vs. CAR), Commanders (vs. NYG), Steelers (vs. CLE), Browns (vs. PIT), Bills (vs. NYJ), Jaguars (vs. TEN), Dolphins (vs. LV), Lions (vs. CHI), and 49ers (vs. TB).
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.