NFL Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint

Nov 22nd 2023

Hayden Winks

Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:

Week 12 QB Rankings

  1. Jalen Hurts - Eagles vs. BUF (25.75, -3.0). 22.6 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  2. Lamar Jackson - Ravens @ LAC (25.25, -3.5). 21.6 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  3. Dak Prescott - Cowboys vs. WAS (29.75, -11.0). 278.5 passing yards in Pick'em.

  4. Josh Allen - Bills @ PHI (22.75, +3.0). 21.0 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  5. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs @ LV (26.0, -8.5). 19.7 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  6. Justin Fields - Bears @ MIN (19.75, +3.5). 19.6 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  7. C.J. Stroud - Texans vs. JAX (23.5, +1.5). 18.9 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  8. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars @ HOU (25.0, -1.5). 18.6 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  9. Brock Purdy - 49ers @ SEA (25.0, -7.0). 251.5 passing yards in Pick'em.

  10. Jared Goff - Lions vs. GB (27.5, -7.5). 253.5 passing yards in Pick'em.

  11. Kyler Murray - Cardinals vs. LAR (22.25, 0.0). 18.9 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  12. Joshua Dobbs - Vikings vs. CHI (23.25, -3.5). 20.4 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  13. Justin Herbert - Chargers vs. BAL (21.75, +3.5). 17.6 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  14. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins @ NYJ (25.5, -10.0). 17.6 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  15. Gardner Minshew - Colts vs. TB (23.25, -2.5). 14.5 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  16. Jordan Love - Packers @ DET (20.0, +7.5). 233.5 passing yards in Pick'em.

  17. Sam Howell - Commanders @ DAL (18.75, +11.0). 257.5 passing yards in Pick'em.

  18. Baker Mayfield - Bucs @ IND (20.75, +2.5). 16.5 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  19. Matthew Stafford - Rams @ ARI (22.25, 0.0). 14.8 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  20. Desmond Ridder - Falcons vs. NO (21.75, -1.0). 13.0 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  21. Russell Wilson - Broncos vs. CLE (19.0, -2.5). 14.3 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  22. Geno Smith - Seahawks vs. SF (18.0, +7.0)

  23. Will Levis - Titans vs. CAR (20.0, -3.5). 13.5 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  24. Derek Carr - Saints @ ATL (20.75, +1.0). 14.7 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  25. Kenny Pickett - Steelers @ CIN (17.75, -1.0). 12.2 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  26. Bryce Young - Panthers @ TEN (16.5, +3.5). 11.5 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  27. DTR - Browns @ DEN (16.5, +2.5). 11.6 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  28. Tommy DeVito - Giants vs. NE (15.25, +3.0). 12.1 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  29. Aidan O'Connell - Raiders vs. KC (17.5, +8.5). 10.7 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  30. Jake Browning - Bengals vs. PIT (16.75, +1.0). 11.0 fantasy points in Pick'em.

  31. Mac Jones - Patriots @ NYG (18.25, -3.0) - Expected to start and maybe split reps.

  32. Tim Boyle - Jets vs. MIA (15.5, +10.0). 8.6 fantasy points in Pick'em.

Week 12 RB Rankings

I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.

  1. Christian McCaffrey - Seattle is 28th against fantasy RBs. 113.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  2. Jonathan Taylor - 104.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  3. Austin Ekeler - 83.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  4. Jahmyr Gibbs - It was a semi drive-by-drive rotation, with Gibbs and Montgomery each scoring a near goal-line TD. Gibbs shined in the 1st-half 2-minute drill, but Montgomery played in the 2nd-half 2-minute drill and was subbed in for the final goal-line TD. Gibbs' pass-game usage keeps him very slightly ahead of Montgomery but that gap is closing based on matchup (see: RB6 Montgomery). Obviously both are fantasy RB1s now that the Lions are 1st in RB fantasy usage. 79.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  5. David Montgomery - Offenses facing the Packers have the 2nd-highest neutral run rate, and the Lions had 40 RB carries to 28 pass attempts in a huge Week 4 win on a season-low 31% neutral pass rate. Montgomery had 32 of those carries and 3 rushing TDs, while Gibbs had 8 carries and 4 receptions. The gap has since closed, but Montgomery's north-south style is a scheme fit against Green Bay's No. 22 rushing EPA allowed defense. I love Montgomery as a one-off in Battle Royale when I'm not drafting ARSB-Goff-LaPorta. 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  6. Tony Pollard - He had a beautiful TD run in a huge win last week, and the nice setup continues as massive home favorites against a tanking Commanders defense that is 17th against fantasy RBs (and dropping). Pollard is averaging just 11.6 half PPR on a whopping 16.4 expected half PPR this year as a regression candidate for those brave souls. He's a great one-off play on Battle Royale teams without Dak-Lamb-Ferguson. 86.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  7. Travis Etienne - 89.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  8. Alvin Kamara - 88.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  9. Saquon Barkley - 95.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  10. Raheem Mostert - 82.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  11. Bijan Robinson - 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  12. Rhamondre Stevenson - No Dexter Lawrence (and no Leonard Williams) for the Giants is huge. 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  13. Zach Charbonnet - No Kenneth Walker means Charbonnet will carry the load and the goal line opportunities, while a combination of veteran pass-catcher DeeJay Dallas and rookie pass-catcher Kenny McIntosh (who is debuting here) also mixing in. Charbonnet can handle pass-game duties if they want to see if he can be a true bellcow like he was at UCLA and in Week 11 (16.4 expected half PPR on 85% snaps). The 49ers force passes at the 3rd-highest rate in neutral situations, leading to a No. 8 ranking against fantasy RBs. Charbonnet isn't likely to break off big runs, so he'll need catch-up mode receptions and a goal line opportunity to pay off in a bad matchup. Luckily the Seahawks run the ball at the 3rd-highest rate inside the 5-yard line. 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  14. Josh Jacobs - 85.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  15. Breece Hall - 82.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  16. Isiah Pacheco - 88.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  17. Derrick Henry - 82.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  18. D'Andre Swift - 77.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  19. James Conner - 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  20. Rachaad White (Questionable) - He was a late add to the injury report with a new knee injury, but he's practicing with the team and there wasn't a corresponding practice squad call up with another RB. If he can't go, it'll be a committee led by Chase Edmonds (passing downs) and Ke'Shawn Vaughn (early downs) with a chance for some Sean Tucker. Before this news, 83.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  21. Kyren Williams - Full practices after Darrell Henderson was released (and added to the practice squad). 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  22. Joe Mixon - 87.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  23. Javonte Williams - 72.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  24. AJ Dillon - With Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson injured, Dillon is a legit bellcow with free-agent pick-up Patrick Taylor as the lone backup right now. In 12 career games with at least 55% snaps (which is conservative here assuming his groin injury isn't serious), Dillon has averaged 14.7 carries and 2.6 targets, so an 18-touch outing can't be ruled out even if the Lions have been stouter against the run than pass this season. 63.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  25. Brian Robinson - This entire outlook depends on if Antonio Gibson (limited x2) is playing. Without Gibson, B-Rob becomes far less game-script dependent as he ran a route on 64% of Commanders' dropbacks last week while mostly trailing. With Gibson, Robinson can be funneled out of the game plan, especially as 11-point dogs, as Washington is 1st in neutral pass rate this month. Dallas is 8th-best in rushing yards allowed and 10th-best in RB receptions allowed. 68.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  26. Jaylen Warren - 70.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  27. Gus Edwards - 56.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  28. Khalil Herbert - No D'Onta Foreman (ankle). 68.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  29. Devin Singletary - 62.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  30. James Cook - 67.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  31. Jerome Ford - 52.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.

  32. Alexander Mattison - 59.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  33. Najee Harris - 60.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  34. Chuba Hubbard - 64.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  35. Ty Chandler - 47.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  36. Keaton Mitchell - 52.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  37. Kareem Hunt - 49.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  38. Jeff Wilson - It's just Mostert, Wilson, and recently added Darrynton Evans. 35.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  39. Ezekiel Elliott - 47.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  40. Dameon Pierce - Full practices, leading to a likely committee. 37.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  41. Miles Sanders - 40.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  42. Tyler Allgeier - 42.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  43. Antonio Gibson (Questionable) - He's been limited in practice after missing last week (toe). This is a "last call" divisional game, so I lean that he plays. Gibson has averaged 6.8 half PPR points on 5.4 expected half PPR points this season, while playing more in negative game scripts (like what's projected here). He's caught 3, 4, 5, 2, 5, and, 1 receptions in losses this year.

  44. Tyjae Spears - 45.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  45. DeeJay Dallas - He was active over rookie Kenny McIntosh last week, a sign that he'll be the No. 2 behind Charbonnet. That's especially true with the 49ers' pass rush being a threat to the tiny and inexperienced McIntosh.

  46. Rico Dowdle - He's averaging 4.5 half PPR on 5.1 expected half PPR points this year, as a primary garbage-time eater. Last week, he only had 3 RB touches before the game was completely out of hand.

  47. Latavius Murray

  48. Royce Freeman

  49. Zack Moss

  50. D'Ernest Johnson

Week 12 WR Rankings

  1. Keenan Allen - 86.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  2. A.J. Brown - 81.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  3. Tyreek Hill - 76.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  4. CeeDee Lamb - He's fully unlocked now that the Cowboys are 3rd in neutral pass rate and Lamb is seeing more outside looks, opening up more big plays. Lamb should feast on a bad secondary that ranks 31st against fantasy WRs and 30th in passing EPA allowed. This is an "eruption spot". 89.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  5. Stefon Diggs - 75.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  6. Amon-Ra St. Brown - This isn't an ideal matchup - offenses facing the Packers run the ball at the 2nd-highest rate in neutral situations - but Amon-Ra is the WR3 on WR5 usage this month and had a solid 5-56-1 receiving line in Week 4's big win. Just last week, Green Bay was torched by fellow slot WR Keenan Allen (10-116-1). 81.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  7. Mike Evans - 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  8. Brandon Aiyuk - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  9. Michael Pittman - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  10. Tank Dell - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  11. Cooper Kupp - 68.5 receiving yards in Pick'em. He went from DNP to limited to full. It sounds crazy, but Kupp should be largely counted on here.

  12. Adam Thielen - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  13. Zay Flowers - 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  14. Davante Adams - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  15. Puka Nacua - 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  16. Ja'Marr Chase - Garrett Wilson Challenge. 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  17. Nico Collins - 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  18. DeVonta Smith - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em. Bills secondary is so injured. Whatever you think it is, it's worse.

  19. DK Metcalf - He practiced fully and was left off the final injury report (toe). Metcalf has separated from the pack with a WR6 overall usage rating in the last month compared to Lockett's WR25 and JSN's WR51. No Kenneth Walker and a 7.5-point spread at home make Metcalf's volume odds as high as ever. In fact, the Niners are 21st against fantasy WRs while offenses choose to pass against them at top-5 rates in neutral situations. He's posted 10-136-2, 7-55-0, and 4-35-0 lines against them last year. I like his higher on 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  20. Chris Olave - 69.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  21. Deebo Samuel - 61.5 total yards in Pick'em.

  22. Jaylen Waddle - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  23. DJ Moore - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  24. Terry McLaurin - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  25. Calvin Ridley - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  26. Christian Kirk - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  27. Tyler Lockett - In 3 games against the Niners last year, Lockett had 6-39-0, 7-68-0, and 9-107-0 receiving lines on the same target share as Metcalf. The difference is Metcalf (14.2 expected half PPR points) has separated from Lockett (9.9) since the Week 5 bye. 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  28. Garrett Wilson - 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  29. DeAndre Hopkins - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  30. Chris Godwin - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em. Limited in practice.

  31. Courtland Sutton - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em. CB1 Denzel Ward (shoulder) is likely to miss. That's huge news for Sutton.

  32. Jordan Addison - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  33. Brandin Cooks - He's the WR22 on WR49 usage this month coming out of the bye, and the Commanders defense stinks. 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  34. Drake London - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  35. Amari Cooper - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  36. Josh Downs - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  37. Diontae Johnson - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  38. Marquise Brown (Questionable) - He went from limited to DNP to DNP, which typically isn't a good sign. But some Cardinals reporters speculate the team is being cautious and he'll suit up. If so, it's a good matchup. Before this news, 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  39. Demario Douglas - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  40. Gabe Davis - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  41. Christian Watson - The Packers have played 7 games with their top-3 WRs all healthy. Watson has been the least efficient (despite last year's insane numbers), but their usages are all very similar. Romeo Doubs (8.8 expected half PPR points) leads the way, followed by Watson (7.4) and Jayden Reed (6.2). A similar trend follows in their routes and targets, so even though Doubs has scored the most TDs and Reed is the most consistent, this is a good spot to hope regression hits on Watson. He's due for a long reception. He's due for TDs. And his odds of pulling that off are higher with Dontayvion Wicks (15 routes per game) sidelined. He also happens to be drafted the fewest times on Battle Royale among this trio.

  42. Romeo Doubs

  43. Jayden Reed

  44. Rashee Rice - No Kadarius Toney or Mecole Hardman opens up more snaps. 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  45. George Pickens - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  46. Odell Beckham - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  47. Jerry Jeudy - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  48. Rashid Shaheed - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  49. Jahan Dotson - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  50. Curtis Samuel - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  51. Justin Watson - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  52. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - In 5 games since his Post Bye Rookie Bump, JSN is averaging 6.6 expected half PPR points while remaining a distant third receiver without obvious paths to a ceiling. Geno takes the more downfield throw often, and JSN is stuck with underneath routes and doesn't have the athleticism to break off huge plays frequently. Perhaps Geno is forced into shorter throws against this pass rush, but JSN's profile isn't a great one at the moment. He's the WR51 in usage this month. 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  53. Khalil Shakir - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  54. Zay Jones - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  55. Greg Dortch - This assumes Michael Wilson is out and Marquise is limited after two DNPs to close the week.

  56. Rashod Bateman - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  57. Michael Gallup - He's been demoted to part-time duties and has been largely ineffective this season. That said, this Commanders defense is one of the worst in the league. We can't rule out a longer score. 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  58. Josh Reynolds - He ran a route on 29-of-40 dropbacks (73%) last week, but Reynolds' targets have disappeared recently. In fact, he has a 14% target share without Jameson Williams on the field and a 2% with him on the field, per Sports Info Solutions. They, of course, are in a rotation. 19.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  59. Jameson Williams - Sports Info Solutions credits Jameson with zero (0) receptions against man coverage, but thankfully the Packers play zone at the 9th-highest rate. That said, Green Bay has been restrictive on deep pass attempts this year. He'll need to break that trend on his typical 65% route rate. Jameson is playing better per the coaching staff. 22.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  60. Quentin Johnston - Jalen Guyton has been limited in practice.

  61. Jakobi Meyers

  62. Skyy Moore - No Kadarius Toney or Mecole Hardman.

  63. Tyler Boyd

  64. Rondale Moore - No Michael Wilson practices, and Marquise Brown went from limited to DNP. It's Moore and GOAT Greg Dortch possibly.

  65. Tutu Atwell

  66. Elijah Moore

  67. Jonathan Mingo

  68. K.J. Osborn - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  69. Jalen Tolbert - Over the last 3 games, Tolbert has run 70 routes to Gallup's 69. It's a near even rotation, with Tolbert actually out-targeting him 15-to-9 over that same span. Gallup has been the better player over the course of the year, however.

  70. Robert Woods

  71. Darnell Mooney - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  72. Darius Slayton

  73. Wan'Dale Robinson

  74. DJ Chark

  75. Trey Palmer - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  76. Marvin Mims

  77. Marquez Valdes-Scantling

  78. Jauan Jennings - 14.5 yards in Pick'em.

  79. Kalif Raymond - He ran 12 routes last week. 11.5 yards in Pick'em.

Week 12 TE Rankings

  1. Travis Kelce

  2. T.J. Hockenson - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  3. George Kittle - The 49ers are 12th in neutral pass rate, so Kittle's boom-bust nature has been less evident in 2023, especially with Purdy playing better than Jimmy G. The Seahawks have struggled against Kittle historically, allowing receiving logs of 4-93-2, 2-37-0, 9-181-2, 4-40-0, and 7-68-0 since 2021. 51.5 yards in Pick'em.

  4. Taysom Hill

  5. Jake Ferguson - He's the TE leader in expected TDs this season and is on a TD heater this month, allowing him to jump up to TE6 on TE5 usage this month. The Cowboys' week-high 29.0-point team total adds to his strong score odds. His 5.5 targets per game have room for growth given the wonkiness of the Cowboys' game flow to date. It also helps that Dallas is 3rd in neutral pass rate this month. Giddy up. 36.5 yards in Pick'em.

  6. Trey McBride - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  7. Dalton Kincaid - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  8. Dalton Schultz - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  9. Sam LaPorta - His expected half PPR points go from 11.3 with either one of the RBs missing down to 6.3 with both Gibbs and Montgomery healthy. That split is further hurt by a potential run-heavy game plan against the run-funnel Packers. He had 7.6 half PPR points on 5 targets against Green Bay in Week 4. 45.5 yards in Pick'em.

  10. Logan Thomas - He's a monster in garbage time, averaging 5.3 receptions and 52 yards in the 6 Commanders' losses. All things considered, Dallas has been worst at defending fantasy TEs (17th). I've been taking the higher on 37.5 yards in Pick'em.

  11. David Njoku - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  12. Evan Engram - 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  13. Cole Kmet - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  14. Isaiah Likely

  15. Kyle Pitts

  16. Cade Otton - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  17. Pat Freiermuth

  18. Tyler Higbee - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  19. Donald Parham - Gerald Everett has been limited.

  20. Jonnu Smith

  21. Hunter Henry - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  22. Tyler Conklin - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.

  23. Michael Mayer

  24. Tucker Kraft - No Luke Musgrave (kidney), but Kraft has a 0.5 yards per route run average as a rookie while operating as a more traditional inline blocking type. Kraft is a 3rd-rounder.

  25. Noah Fant - 15.5 yards in Pick'em.

Week 12 Fantasy Defenses For Sickos

The fantasy football defenses of Week 12 are the Patriots (vs. NYG), Dolphins (vs. NYJ), Cowboys (vs. WAS), Titans (vs. CAR), Broncos (vs. CLE), Steelers (vs. CIN), Chiefs (vs. LV), 49ers (vs. SEA), and Vikings (vs. CHI).

Underdog Fantasy "Battle Royale" DFS

To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.