NFL Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 11 Fantasy Football Recap Notes
Week 12 RB Rankings
Joe Mixon - 110.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB1 on RB2 overall usage this month, and pretty much the entire season. This is CMC-to-Frisco type of transformation.
The Texans are 7th in projected points.
De'Von Achane - 103.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's averaged 20.2 half PPR points on 17.5 expected points with Tua. Achane is the pass-game focal point, while also splitting the goal line role. Just wait for him to rip off his patented 40-yard score. It's been a minute since that's happened... It's coming soon.
The Dolphins are 5th in projected points.
Saquon Barkley
The Eagles are 6th in projected points vs. the Rams.
Derrick Henry
The Ravens are 4th in projected points vs. the Chargers.
Josh Jacobs
Remember when he couldn't score touchdowns? Well, this month he's the RB3 overall on RB15 usage. That's regression flipping on it's head. The Packers just having a healthy version of Jordan Love is great news for those touchdowns to keep rolling in for the explosive Jacobs.
The Packers are 7th in projected points, and they've been the most run-heavy offense in neutral situations this month.
Nick Bosa (hip) is questionable.
Kenneth Walker
It's been a quiet month (RB29 on RB17 usage), but let's not forget the early part of the year. The Seahawks are 9th in projected points, so odds are high that this is a rebound spot.
The Seahawks also started a new center and had RT Abe Lucas back from injury. This is probably the best Seattle's OL will play all year.
Christian McCaffrey - 111.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB10 in usage since returning (2 games).
The 49ers' lack of speed is hurting CMC's chance of a big play, especially with the OL playing mediocre without George Kittle (questionable). CMC's tape has been fine in my opinion, but he's not totally himself either out in space. Shanahan is still designing targets to him in the red zone, and those will eventually turn into scores. The 49ers just aren't as good right now. Their 22.5 points in Lambeau this week. It's been a long time since it's been so low.
Jahmyr Gibbs
The Lions are projected for the most points.
Brian Robinson
The Commanders are 2nd in projected points, and the Cowboys have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to RBs. When Washington gets inside the 5-yard line, they have one of the highest run rates in the NFL with B-Rob and Daniels both totalling 8 a piece. At the 10-yard line, B Rob's 15 carries are tied for 5th in the NFL despite only playing in 7.5 games.
Kyren Williams - 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
There are splits emerging with Williams' usage with the WRs being healthy. Williams is suddenly the RB12 in usage this month after putting up top-5 scores consistently. The good news is the Rams' OL is healthy again, and the offense could flirt with top-5 numbers as a whole. He won't get the targets of the other elite RB1s, but he should sneak into the end zone plenty down the stretch.
The emerging Eagles are 7th-best against fantasy RBs.
James Conner
He's the RB12 on RB7 usage this month and should be fresh off the bye.
David Montgomery
He's the RB17 on RB19 usage this month.
The Lions are projected for the most points, and the Colts defense has allowed the most RB carries and 4th-most RB rushing yards. Montgomery has the inside the 10-yard line carry advantage over Gibbs, 25 to 11. That's a league-leading 25 carries by the way.
Rhamondre Stevenson
With Drake Maye elevating the offense, Stevenson is the RB15 on RB5 overall usage this month. He's been a consistent RB2 without hype all year really.
Jonathan Taylor - 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB25 on RB13 usage this month, while Anthony Richardson has had his number called at the goal line a few times.
The Lions are 4th-best against fantasy RBs.
Isiah Pacheco (Questionable)
We'll see if he can get in a full practice and if reports are optimistic. Kareem Hunt has offered very little beyond handling a truly monster workload (RB3 overlal usage this month). His explosive play rate is horrific.
The Chiefs are 3rd in projected points, and the Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs this year. This is an eruption spot.
Najee Harris - 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Steelers are in the full Arthur Smith zone. Najee is the RB23 on RB8 usage this month, averaging 13.4 half PPR points on 16.8 expected points in his games with Russell Wilson. There weren't any concerns with his ankle on tape.
Tyrone Tracy
He has averaged 14.0 half PPR points on 11.8 expected points as the clear starter. Now we get his Post Bye Rookie Bump, though it comes with a QB downgrade.
Chuba Hubbard
Jonathon Brooks (ACL) should finally be active, but the rookie is likely kept on a touch count, potentially as the more-involved receiving threat. Hubbard has been too good of a rusher to be moved out of the starter role, and he's been so involved (RB6 overall usage this month) that he can afford to lose some work and keep RB2/3 value. Remember, Hubbard was just given a multi-year guaranteed contract extension.
The Panthers are last in projected points, and the Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs this year. What's the opposite of an eruption spot? Distasterclass spot?
Tony Pollard
Tyjae Spears (concussion) is questionable. In 3 games without him, Pollard averaged 12.5 half PPR points on 16.9 expected points. He's averaged 12.1 expected points with him, so his status does matter.
The Titans are 3rd to last in projected points, and the Texans are 5th-best against fantasy RBs.
Aaron Jones - 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Cam Akers acquisition is actually mattering for Jones, who is now the RB18 in usage this month. The efficiency has declined over the course of the season as well.
J.K. Dobbins
Gus Edwards' return is costing Dobbins some touches, and the Haasan Haskins goal line carries are starting to get annoying. Dobbins is the RB21 in usage this month, with a few of those games without The Bus active.
Rachaad White - 63.5 total yards in Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot.
Bucky Irving - 68.5 total yards in Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot on the ground, where Irving has been slightly better than White. Before the bye, Irving was the early-down rusher before White took over late as a receiver and goal line option.
Javonte Williams
Do you trust Sean Payton keeping Javonte as the lead back? I guess I do? I didn't think Audric Estime moved the needle in his lead back game before, not that Javonte has either. They are basically winging it.
Rico Dowdle
Pro: The bellcow role that we were promised came through in Week 11.
Con: The Cowboys are 4th to last in projected points.
D'Andre Swift (Questionable)
He did not practice (groin) on Wednesday.
Offenses don't run it against the Vikings. It's pretty much that simple when there are often 6 defenders crowding the line of scrimmage. Minnesota is 2nd best against fantasy RBs, allowing a league-low 168 carries.
Roschon Johnson was the goal line back under new OC Thomas Brown, but Swift was utilized in ways that play to his strengths, like the pitch touchdown with LT Braxton Jones lighting up the Packers safety.
Nick Chubb - 58.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Browns are 2nd to last in projected points, but at least the point spread is only at 3.5 and they are at home. Chubb needs normal game scripts to have a fighting chance.
Austin Ekeler
Last week's explosion in the pass game was scoreboard related, and the Commanders are 10.5-point home favorites.
Jaylen Warren - 54.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kareem Hunt
Gus Edwards
Audric Estime
Cam Akers
Roschon Johnson
Raheem Mostert
You can pray for some goal line opportunities still.
Week 12 WR Rankings
Puka Nacua - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Rams are 1st in WR usage, play at home, and have the 3rd-highest game total (49.0) of the week.
His at-snap motion rate is off the charts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 77.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions are projected for the most points.
Nico Collins - 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was a part-time player in his return (23-of-40 routes), but Collins was a full participant on Wednesday and should be back to full strength this week.
The Texans are projected for the 8th-most points.
Justin Jefferson - 83.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He only has one game above 20.0 half PPR points ... so far.
A.J. Brown - 79.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Eagles are projected for the 6th-most points. This is an eruption spot.
Cooper Kupp - 72.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
His 17.7 expected half PPR points in his healthy games makes him the most-used WR of the year.
DK Metcalf - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cardinals CB Sean Murphy-Bunting is the CB88 out of 89 qualifiers. Rookie CB Max Melton is CB82.
Tyreek Hill - 68.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's only averaging 12.3 half PPR points on 11.8 expected with Tua this year.
The Dolphins are projected for the 4th-most points. This is an eruption spot.
Terry McLaurin - 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot. The Commanders are projected for the 2nd-most points.
CeeDee Lamb - 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
10.0 half PPR points on 15.3 expected points with Cooper Rush.
Courtland Sutton - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR14 on WR7 usage this month with Bo Nix playing better. In fact, he's the QB12 in EPA per play since Week 6.
Zay Flowers - 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR13 on WR20 usage this month.
The Ravens are projected for the 3rd-most points vs. the Chargers.
Ladd McConkey - 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR15 on WR34 usage this month and has impressed me every step of the way coming out of his Post Bye Rookie Bump.
This is an eruption spot against a vulnerable Ravens defense at home.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR3 on WR9 usage this month, with his best game coming without DK Metcalf. With him last week, JSN was still very involved as the primary underneath target. Yahoo's Nate Tice made a good point that the evelated OL play will help JSN in particular because JSN will be targeted on more 3rd-and-4 plays instead of 3rd-and-12s where Metcalf's skills are more valuable.
By the way, OC Ryan Grubb is a difference maker.
Malik Nabers
He's the WR6 in usage this month but sits at WR39 in fantasy points. His efficiency dropped from -4% in the first four weeks to -40% over the last four games. That should even out down the stretch, even with Tommy DeVito. His career YPA is at 6.2 versus Daniel Jones' 6.5. I expect Nabers to be the easy button for Brian Daboll's play calling with the backup QB. If Calvin Ridley, CeeDee Lamb, and Brian Thomas can get home in bad offenses, why can't Nabers?
Calvin Ridley - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR11 on WR10 usage this month, even without the called back 50-yard touchdown last week. Ridley is too big to fail (over time) now that he's getting some screens and at-snap motion calls made for him, in addition to his downfield shots.
Jauan Jennings - 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
24.6 half PPR points on 17.3 expected points when he's been the 49ers' No. 1/2 receiver this year. He's the WR7 on WR4 usage this month.
The 49ers are "only" projected for 22.5 points this week and George Kittle is due back, so this isn't as clean of an environment as it was in previous matchups.
Mike Evans (Questionable) - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He needs to be fully practicing and completely left off the final injury report before having WR1 expectations. That's the case for all players coming off injury. When healthy, Evans should immediately ball out without Chris Godwin. The Bucs held the fort down without both WRs because OC Liam Coen is a g.
DeAndre Hopkins
He's the WR24 on WR33 usage this month as a full-time Chief.
The Chiefs are projected for the 5th-most points. This is an eruption spot.
George Pickens - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
There are weather concerns (30s degrees, snow/rain, and light wind). The Steelers' team total has dropped to 20.5 points, between the Colts and Patriots.
He'll see some CB Denzel Ward with the chance for a full shadow ban.
DeVonta Smith
He's the WR35 on WR53 usage this month. The Eagles are good (6th in projected points), but the touchdowns and targets often go elsewhere. He offers no floor right now. The ceiling is solid.
Marvin Harrison - 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Cardinals are projected for the 8th-most points.
He'll see elite athlete CB Tariq Woolen on the perimeter, who has the size to be a problem, too.
Deebo Samuel - 60.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's he WR45 on WR17 usage this month since being hospitalized with pneumonia. Samuel has been well below average in my model's efficiency all year and doesn't look quite as explosive on tape. That should get better as time passes on. In the meantime, a mini reset is warranted with the 49ers projected for just 22.5 points this week.
DJ Moore - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The new OC made it a point of emphasis to get him going:
Tank Dell - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR36 on WR31 usage this month, and King Collins is back. Dell is sadly at -18% fantasy points over expected this season while coming off injury. There seems to be fewer post routes to him. That's where his bread was buttered as a rookie.
The Texans are projected for the 8th-most points.
Jameson Williams
He's the WR20 on WR49 usage this month, pretty typical for his profile on this electric offense. The Lions are projected for the most points this week to nobody's surprise.
Josh Downs - 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He made the absolute most out of his 5 targets last week with Anthony Richardson, who had a league-high 10 designed QB runs last week. Downs' efficiency can't be that good every week, but he's clearly their best all-around receiver. His option route out of the backfield against a poor linebacker was evidence that the coaching staff knows this.
Jayden Reed - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Packers are projected for the 7th-most points.
Jakobi Meyers
He's the WR26 on WR29 usage this month. The most WR3 player ever.
Xavier Worthy
The Chiefs are projected for the 5th-most points. This is an eruption spot.
It was a point of emphasis early to keep him involved in the designed-touch department, and then he made a great grab against man coverage later on. If Mahomes hadn't missed him 3 times on deep balls this year, we'd be viewing him very differently in fantasy, even with his own crucial mistakes.
Cedric Tillman - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR8 on WR8 usage this month with Jameis Winston. He was missed on a few sideline passes last week, but things have been pretty good. This will be, by far, their biggest challenge yet. The Browns have the 2nd-worst team total with weather in the forecast (30s degrees, rain/snow, light wind). Tillman will see a good corner in Joey Porter with plus-level safeties roaming, too.
Quentin Johnston
He's coming off a season-high in usage (12.8 expected half PPR points), but QJ is still the WR51 in usage this month and has been reliant on somewhat fluky big plays. This is an elite matchup for him to keep that streak alive, but this is a dangerous game to play in general.
Rome Odunze - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bears were in 3-WR sets on 88% of their Week 11 plays, so Odunze is almost a full-time player now. It'd be nice if some of the designed routes went his way more often, but his talent eventually will show through. He's the WR27 in usage this month and the new play-caller seemed to find a better rhythm.
Romeo Doubs - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Packers are projected for the 7th-most points.
Jordan Addison - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR44 on WR40 usage. Addison has been a boom-bust downfield receiver in an excellent scheme. Will T.J. Hockenson beat him out in targets? That's the impossible question.
Keenan Allen - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's now the WR64 on WR30 usage this month. When's the last time he's forced a missed tackle?
Jaylen Waddle - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Dolphins are projected for the 4th-most points. This is an eruption spot, if you haven't completely written him off (which is fully understandable).
Xavier Legette
He's the WR40 on WR41 usage this month, and now it's his Post Bye Rookie Bump.
The Panthers just have the lowest team total of the week.
Michael Pittman
Jerry Jeudy - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Browns have the 2nd-worst team total with weather in the forecast (30s degrees, rain/snow, light wind).
Christian Watson
The Packers are projected for the 7th-most points.
Last week's production was so sick, but these were not easy plays being made. Watson remains a volatile WR4 without a floor while playing in a rotation. He's the WR41 on WR37 usage this month.
Noah Brown - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kayshon Boutte - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
47-of-48 routes in Week 11.
DeMario Douglas - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Elijah Moore - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
He's been a top-36 fantasy WR in 4 of his last 5 games. Some of the TDs have been flukey, but NWI does provide the Titans with a physical presence over the middle and potentially in the red area.
Wan'Dale Robinson
Ricky Pearsall
Tyler Lockett - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Alec Pierce
Rashod Bateman
Demarcus Robinson
Darius Slayton
Joshua Palmer
Devaughn Vele
Michael Wilson
Dontayvion Wicks
Jalen Coker
Adam Thielen returns.
Week 12 QB Rankings
Lamar Jackson - Ravens (27.0, -3.0) at LAC
Jalen Hurts - Eagles (25.5, -2.5) at LAR
Jayden Daniels - Commanders (27.5, -10.5) vs. DAL
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs (26.75, -10.5) at CAR
Anthony Richardson - Colts (21.25, +7.5) vs. DET
His 10 designed QB rushes were the most by a QB all season. Many of them were in highly-valuable locations.
Justin Herbert - Chargers (24.0, +3.0) vs. BAL
Kyler Murray - Cardinals (24.25, -1.0) at SEA
Geno Smith - Seahawks (23.25, +1.0) vs. ARI
Bo Nix - Broncos (23.5, -6.0) at LV
Jared Goff - Lions (29.25, -7.5) at IND
Brock Purdy - 49ers (22.75, +2.0) at GB
Jordan Love - Packers (24.75, -2.0) vs. SF
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins (26.75, -7.5) vs. NE
C.J. Stroud - Texans (24.25, -8.0) vs. TEN
Drake Maye - Patriots (19.25, +7.5) at MIA
Matthew Stafford - Rams (23.0, +2.5) vs. PHI
Baker Mayfield - Bucs (24.0, -6.0) at NYG
Sam Darnold - Vikings (21.5, -3.5) at CHI
Caleb Williams - Bears (18.0, +3.5) vs. MIN
Tommy DeVito - Giants (18.0, +6.0) vs. TB
Will Levis - Titans (16.25, +8.0) at HOU
Jameis Winston - Browns (16.0, +3.5) vs. PIT
Russell Wilson - Steelers (20.0, -3.5) at CLE
Bryce Young - Panthers (16.25, +10.5) vs. KC
Gardner Minshew - Raiders (17.5, +6.0) vs. DEN
Cooper Rush - Cowboys (17.5, +10.5) at WAS
Week 12 TE Rankings
Travis Kelce - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brock Bowers - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trey McBride - 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle (Questionable) - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cade Otton - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
This assumes Mike Evans (hamstring) is playing, perhaps not at full health.
David Njoku - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Hunter Henry - 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He has averaged 8.7 half PPR points on 10.0 expected with Drake Maye. He's been the TE5 in usage this month and is a positive regression candidate.
Sam LaPorta (Questionable)
The Lions are projected for too many points to be overly concerned with his lack of volume compared to the rest of the TE1/2 border.
Will Dissly
He's the TE14 on TE17 usage this month.
Jonnu Smith - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He had a season-high 15.6 expected half PPR points in Week 11, vaulting him to TE10 usage this month. The volume has paid off, so I get riding the wave.
T.J. Hockenson - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He only ran a route on 61% of Week 11 dropbacks after getting it done the week prior. His injury was serious enough to expect a slow-ish ramp up period.
Mark Andrews
Tucker Kraft - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zach Ertz
Dallas Goedert
Isaiah Likely
Cole Kmet - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Pat Freiermuth - 17.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz
Ja'Tavion Sanders
Chig Okonkwo
AJ Barner
Jake Ferguson (Questionable)
Noah Gray
Davis Allen
Week 12 Defenses For Sickos
