Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:
1. Jalen Hurts - Eagles vs. SF (22.25 implied points, +2.5 spread)
Josh Allen (on a bye) and Hurts are averaging about 3 more fantasy points per game than all other QBs, but the gap is shrinking this week with the Niners' No. 4 fantasy QB defense coming to town. It's impossible to overstate how huge the potential return of RT Lane Johnson (limited) would be given the matchup and Hurts' compromised agility with his own knee problem. That said, offenses facing San Fran have chosen to pass the ball in neutral situations at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL this season, so a return to more passes is expected. Philly is typically higher than 23rd in neutral pass rate, which is where they sit this month. Hopefully A.J. Brown (limited) and DeVonta Smith (limited) are on the injury report for precautionary reasons.
2. Dak Prescott - Cowboys vs. SEA (27.75, -9.0)
The best player in the NFL this month, Dak has now jumped to QB3 overall in fantasy points in 2023 with the offense finally having juice on the perimeter. Dallas is 3rd in neutral pass rate and 1st in passing EPA this month, though they've faced some soft defenses. Seattle is middle of the pack defensively, ranking 14th in passing EPA and sack rate on top-5 plays allowed. This is a favorable spot again with Dak completely on fire. 21.45 fantasy points in Pick'em.
3. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins @ WAS (29.5, -9.5)
Miami projects for the most points on the week (29.5) against the ghost of the Commanders defense. They're 32nd versus fantasy QBs, 32nd in passing EPA allowed, and their mid position in sack rate will drop without EDGEs Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Tua's relative struggles recently will be far more alarming if he can't push the ball downfield without mistake here, but a bounce back game is fully expected assuming Tyreek Hill (limited) is fully healthy. The Commanders, who just fired their DC, have not faced Mike McDaniel before:
4. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs @ GB (24.5, -6.5)
Mahomes is no longer an "elite fantasy QB" (like Allen and Hurts) but rather a strong mid-QB1. The Chiefs' team totals have dropped in 2023 because of even worse WR play, an aging Kelce, a vastly improved defense, and a slightly more balanced game plan (8th in neutral pass). That trend is likely to continue in Week 13 against the Packers' No. 8 fantasy QB defense, one that is forcing offenses to run against them in neutral situations at the 2nd-highest rate. December weather in Green Bay is in play as well. Mahomes will need to scramble around and continue finding Post-Bye Rookie Bump candidate Rashee Rice to move the needle like the true elites. The Chiefs have an above-average 24.25-point team total.
5. C.J. Stroud - Texans vs. DEN (25.5, -3.5)
Stroud remains a lethal downfield passer, but this will be a slightly stiffer test, as the Broncos have deployed a relatively successful bend-don't-break secondary in recent weeks on the backs of CB1 Patrick Surtain and FS1 Justin Simmons. Since Week 5 when Simmons returned from injury, Denver is 12th in passing EPA and 16th in passing success rate allowed, while continuing to get gashed on the ground. Stroud will be without LG Tytus Howard (knee) again, but his pocket awareness and downfield eyes have been A+ despite a fluctuating OL all season long. The Texans have the 4th-highest team total of the week because Stroud is a total stud. He's fantasy football's QB2 this month, while the Texans have improved to 4th in neutral pass rate against some of the biggest pass funnels:
6. Brock Purdy - 49ers @ PHI (25.0, -2.5)
Offenses facing the Eagles have the 2nd-highest neutral pass rate because their secondary is worse than their defensive line. That's good news for Purdy, who Kyle Shanahan has allowed to pass more in neutral situations compared to the Jimmy G era. In fact, the 49ers are 6th in neutral pass rate this month. Despite playing in Philly (with potential for weather), this is a good spot for fantasy points. The Eagles are 30th against fantasy QBs and the Niners have the 5th-highest team total of the week. Purdy will be seeking revenge after destroying his elbow against them last January.
7. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars vs. CIN (23.75, -8.5)
The Bengals have allowed the most yards per pass attempt (8.1) on the 3rd-worst passing success rate, so it's fair to say this is a great home matchup for the surging Jaguars. Lawrence is coming off two of his highest EPA games in his career while putting Calvin Ridley in better spots to win (tight formations, more underneath routes, etc.). More importantly, the OL is holding up better and gets a below-average pass rush here. Jacksonville's 23.75-point team total (7th) feels a little light to me.
8. Sam Howell - Commanders vs. MIA (20.5, +9.5)
He's on pace for the 6th-most pass attempts in NFL history, thanks to a 6-game streak of 42+ attempts. Well, more are coming as 9.5-point home dogs to the Dolphins. In fact, Howell is averaging 295 passing yards on 43.5 attempts in his 8 losses this season. Miami is stepping up on defense with CB1 Jalen Ramsey back, but they also just ruled EDGE1 Jaelan Phillips (achilles) out for the year. The Commanders' 20.5-point team total is enough for fantasy QB1 expectations given the absurd volume projection. I'm sprinkling in some highers on 25.5 completions in Pick'em.
9. Russell Wilson - Broncos @ HOU (22.0, +3.5)
10. Jared Goff - Lions @ NO (25.25, -4.0)
11. Justin Herbert - Chargers @ NE (23.0, -6.0)
Keenan Allen is playing through a new quad injury, and the Patriots could double team him as they've done with other No. 1 options. On top of that, there is consistent rain in the weather forecast.
12. Jordan Love - Packers vs. KC (18.0, +6.5)
13. Kenny Pickett - Steelers vs. ARI (23.25, -5.5)
14. Gardner Minshew - Colts @ TEN (21.75, -1.0)
15. Kyler Murray - Cardinals @ PIT (17.75, +5.5)
This has turned into a pass-heavy, downfield offense with very mixed results. Kyler is 37th out of 38 QBs in completion percentage over expected (-6%), only beating UCLA Bruin Dorian Thompson-Robinson. If Trey McBride (DNPx2), Marquise Brown (DNPx2), and Michael Wilson (DNPx2) are all out here, this is nothing but a tanking team with a QB struggling to get his feet wet. Things won't be easier in Pittsburgh, especially with S1 Minkah Fitzpatrick returning to full practices and DT1 Cam Heyward back in the lineup.
16. Baker Mayfield - Bucs vs. CAR (21.25, -5.5)
17. Matthew Stafford - Rams vs. CLE (21.5, -3.5)
18. Geno Smith - Seahawks @ DAL (18.25, +9.0)
15.55 fantasy points in Pick'em.
19. Derek Carr - Saints vs. DET (20.75, +4.0)
20. Will Levis - Titans vs. IND (20.75, +1.0)
21. Desmond Ridder - Falcons @ NYJ (18.25, -3.0)
22. Bryce Young - Panthers @ TB (15.75, +5.5)
23. P.J. Walker - Browns @ LAR (18.0, +3.5)
24. Jake Browning - Bengals @ JAX (14.75, +8.5)
25. Bailey Zappe - Patriots vs. LAC (17.0, +6.0)
26. Tim Boyle - Jets vs. ATL (15.75, +3.0)
I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.
Christian McCaffrey - Tough rushing matchup, but I'm expecting pass-catching designs against a poor Eagles LB group. 108.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Zack Moss - He averaged 19.4 half PPR on 17.6 expected half PPR points in 4 games as the clear lead back. 97.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Travis Etienne - Major positive regression candidate (7.8 HPPR on 14.3 expected HPPR per game this month) against a Bengals defense that's 27th in rushing success rate allowed. The Jaguars are 8th in team total this week. 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kyren Williams - The big plays were there. The goal line and receiving reps were there. Only difference is that Royce Freeman is in the mix now, instead of it only being Kyren. The Rams are hammering teams with duo runs against light boxes right now. Kyren is a perfect scheme fit with that, coming from pro-style Notre Dame. We'll monitor Myles Garrett (shoulder) practice reports.
Isiah Pacheco - This assumes Jerick McKinnon (DNP, groin) misses again. Pacheco had an elite 18.9 expected half PPR points last week on a season-high 26 routes. The Chiefs have the 6th-highest team total (24.5 points) against a run-funnel Packers defense:
Rachaad White - He's the RB4 on RB5 usage this month and even played on 52-of-60 snaps last week despite a late addition to the injury report. The Bucs' team total is higher than normal this week against the miserable Panthers, who are 3rd-worst against fantasy RBs. Congrats to those who were on White this year (not me). 91.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Alvin Kamara - This assumes Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Michael Thomas (IR) are all out. This will be a hell of a game plan in New Orleans. I expect Kamara to go back to his old role after being scaled back in recent weeks. There's just no way the Saints can keep their 51% neutral pass rate up from this last month with this week's WR group.
Tony Pollard - The Cowboys have the 2nd-highest team total of the week (27.25) against the visiting Seahawks run funnel (4th worst against fantasy RBs). That said, Dallas is 2nd in neutral pass rate this month with Dak playing like an MVP. Pollard is the RB21 on RB16 usage this month. This is a relatively good spot for his TD streak to continue. 87.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Austin Ekeler - The RB14 on RB3 usage this month, as his efficiency has evaporated since the high-ankle sprain. Ekeler is clearly battling injuries in a contract year. I feel for him, but it's time to #adjust. The Chargers offense (23.0 team total) is mid-adjacent right now, too. 88.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bijan Robinson - He's had 15.8 and 14.6 expected half PPR points in his last 2 games as the clear 1a, bringing him up to RB7 on RB14 usage this month. This is trending towards a huge Post-Bye Rookie Bump campaign after a slow fantasy start. The Falcons' 18.25-point team total (20th) and a stout Jets defensive line are the only things in his way. That said, the Jets have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to RBs. 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jahmyr Gibbs - He's averaging 14.5 expected half PPR points in his last 4 games with David Montgomery. The Lions are utilizing a drive-by-drive rotation, with Gibbs being more involved in negative game scripts like last week. They're 4.0-point favorites over the Saints this week on the 5th-highest team total (25.25). Gibbs and Montgomery have enough volume to warrant RB1 rankings. 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
David Montgomery - He's the RB8 on RB27 this month, and his usage would be way higher if he didn't break off a 75-day rushing TD on one of his drives and wasn't game-scripted out of touches last week. When push comes to shove, the Lions favor Monty at the goal line still. 74.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Rhamondre Stevenson - He's the RB5 on RB12 usage this month, trending towards last year's RB1 finish despite an unwatchable surrounding. The offense can only run the ball and throw the ball to their RBs, especially Bailey Zappe. Stevenson played 53-of-68 snaps in Week 12 coming off their bye, leading to 15.5 expected half PPR points despite scoring 7 points as a team. Now, the Chargers have allowed the 2nd-most receptions to RBs.
Raheem Mostert - Waiting on De'Von Achane (questionable) news, but Mostert is the RB11 on RB24 usage this month. The Dolphins have the highest team total of the week at 30 points.
Javonte Williams - He picked up a mid-game injury, but it's still a bit concerning that Samaje Perine was the goal line back last week over Javonte, who is one of the least efficient RBs in my fantasy points over expected metric while coming off that significant multi-ligament knee tear. That said, Williams' usage was RB1-worthy before Week 12. He's the RB24 on RB7 usage this month as a positive regression candidate, assuming the goal-line role returns. The Broncos' 22.0-point team total is slightly above average. 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Devin Singletary - The Broncos have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs, and even since the Week 3 Dolphins massacre, Denver remains 31st in rushing success rate allowed. Singletary still had 15.6 expected half PPR points last week with Dameon Pierce only handling some invaluable early-down carries. Singletary was the goal line and 2-minute drill back.
Derrick Henry - He's averaging just 11.7 expected half PPR points in 5 Will Levis starts and is the RB26 in both usage and production this month. Henry gets decent game script (1-point dogs at home) against the Colts this time around, and the Titans have leaned more run-heavy recently in neutral situations. 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Zach Charbonnet - This assumes Ken Walker is out. The Post-Bye Rookie Bump candidate has had 16.4 and 11.4 expected half PPR points with Walker injured, as an upside RB2 candidate. He had decent tape in Week 12 but had few rushing lanes against the Niners. A similar spot awaits against the Cowboys, though they are 31st in rushing success rate allowed. 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Warren - Over the last month, Jaylen Warren is 1st in PFF rushing grade. Najee is holding his own, however, ranking 9th. The offense is 30th in neutral pass rate over that span as a run-first unit that's playing better ball in general. The Steelers' 23.25-point team total is their highest of the year and 7th-highest across the league this week. Arizona is 5th-worst in rushing success rate allowed and 2nd-worst against fantasy RBs on the most carries. This is an "eruption spot" for both Najee and Jaylen. 77.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Najee Harris - See RB19 Jaylen Warren.
De'Von Achane (Questionable) - We'll need full practices to feel more comfortable. More on this later in the week. That said, it's possible some of his explosiveness and agility aren't at full strength right now. Achane needs those attributes to make up for his lack of size and volume. The Dolphins' 30-point team total obviously gives him paths to upside. Nobody is more boom-bust.
Breece Hall - The receptions are there. The big play ability is there on occasion. But Tim Boyle and a 15.75-point Jets team total are unserious. Hall is the RB29 on RB23 usage this month with the wheels falling off, and across the entire year, Hall is PFF's RB28 out of 35 qualifiers in rushing grade. His broken tackle rate is 25% down versus last year. This week's matchup is mid. The Falcons are without DT Grady Jarrett, but their slow playing style has led to a No. 2 ranking against fantasy RBs.
D'Andre Swift - He's dropped to RB23 on RB18 usage this month, and the Eagles only project for 22.25 points against the 49ers' elite front-seven. Offenses facing the Niners have chosen to pass in neutral situations at the 3rd-highest rate, which explains why the 49ers have allowed the fewest RB carries by a wide margin this season. Everything is working against Swift here. 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
James Conner - This doesn't matter too much for fantasy purposes, but it's really dope to see Conner rank 1st in broken tackles forced and yards after contract per carry this year (min. 100 carries) per PFF. What a stud. It's unfortunate that he's losing routes to Michael Carter right now, which explains why Conner sits as the RB30 in usage this month. Conner has a "revenge game" against the Steelers, who will likely run through the Cardinals OL.
Brian Robinson - Volume is a concern. Washington is 3rd highest in neutral pass rate this month, and the Commanders are 9.5-point underdogs to the Dolphins this week. B-Rob is often game scripted out of touches with Antonio Gibson back in the mix. In fact, he's only averaging 9.8 expected half PPR points in his last 4 games with Gibson. 55.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Chuba Hubbard - He's the RB31 on RB29 usage this month, but Hubbard did at least average 12.1 expected half PPR points in his games with OC Thomas Brown for what it's worth. Last week, Hubbard handled both inside the 5-yard line opportunities while rotating relatively evenly with Miles Sanders.
Jerome Ford - He's averaging just 10.5 expected half PPR points in 6 games without Deshaun Watson (equivalent to RB28), and the Browns' team total has tanked to 18.0 points this week. Ford continues to lose goal-line work to the more powerful Kareem Hunt (questionable).
AJ Dillon - He's averaged just 10.8 expected half PPR points in games without Aaron Jones, and Dillon has been one of the least efficient RBs for years. A below-average 18.0-point team total awaits with the Chiefs stud defense on schedule.
Joe Mixon - With Jake Browning's offense playing just 41 snaps last week, Mixon set a season-low with just 6.7 expected half PPR points. If not for a big play on an underneath pass in the 4th quarter, Mixon would've been close to a goose egg. This week, Cincy has the lowest team total (14.75). The lone positive is the Jaguars have allowed the most RB receptions this year. 69.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kareem Hunt - TD-or-bust on a bad offense.
Miles Sanders - See RB24 Chuba Hubbard.
Antonio Gibson - See RB25 Brian Robinson.
Tyler Allgeier - See RB9 Bijan Robinson. 36.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jamaal Williams - See RB5 Alvin Kamara.
Royce Freeman - See RB3 Kyren Williams.
Samaje Perine - See RB15 Javonte Williams.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - See RB5 Isiah Pacheco.
Tyjae Spears - See RB19 Derrick Henry.
Rico Dowdle - See RB10 Tony Pollard.
D'Ernest Johnson - See RB3 Travis Etienne.
Ezekiel Elliott - See RB12 Rhamondre Stevenson.
Dameon Pierce - See RB17 Devin Singletary.
Jeff Wilson - See RB14 Raheem Mostert.
Kenneth Gainwell - See RB23 D'Andre Swift.
Jaleel McLaughlin - See RB15 Javonte Williams.
Trey Sermon - We are one injury away from the most hilarious outcome.
Tyreek Hill (Questionable) - Commanders CB Emmanuel Forbes isn't practicing, not that he's been good. This is a nuclear upside spot assuming he is healthy. Tyreek has been DNP-limited in practice with a new ankle injury. 97.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
CeeDee Lamb - The Seahawks have some studs in their secondary, but things haven't completely gelled entirely. Seattle is 22nd against fantasy WRs, and Lamb has career-high volume during this elite Cowboys stretch. Dallas is 3rd in neutral pass rate this month on the 2nd-most projected points this week. 84.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - The WR4 on WR4 usage this month. This is straight forward. 81.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
A.J. Brown - He's been limited in practice (thigh), but this is an underrated fine matchup because the Niners are 17th against fantasy WRs with opposing offenses lean pass heavy out of necessity. In this game last postseason with Goedert available, Brown had a 32% target share before the game was completely out of hand. 73.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Keenan Allen (Questionable) - He's played through injuries before, but Keenan opening the week with DNPs (quad) is not a good thing. In fact, it's bad. On top of that, there are rainy conditions and the chance that Belichick double teams him. I'm on lowers here: 89.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Pittman - The WR14 on WR9 usage this month, and Pittman now sees the No. 31 passing EPA defense, one that's typically been a pass funnel. The absence of Jonathan Taylor can't hurt Pittman either. 72.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Evans - He's the WR6 on WR7 usage this month, and Chris Godwin (neck) is uncertain to play. 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Waddle - The Commanders are 31st versus fantasy WRs and 32nd in passing EPA allowed. Tyreek Hill is also on the injury report. 69.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Olave (Questionable) - He's expected to play after leaving last week with a concussion. Without Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed, Olave's inconsistent volume is no longer a prime issue. Olave is the WR9 on WR13 usage this month. 69.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Deebo Samuel - He's averaged 12.6 HPPR on 10.9 expected half PPR points in 8 healthy game, while still seeing RB and screen usage despite many mouths to feed. He'll be a key matchup advantage against a bad spine of the Eagles defense, one that could be without DT Fletcher Cox and LB Zach Cunningham. 65.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Brandon Aiyuk - He's only averaging 8.5 expected half PPR points in games with Deebo healthy, so the floor is always a concern. That said, Aiyuk is a dog and the matchup is friendly. The Eagles are dead last against fantasy WRs on the 2nd-highest neutral pass rate allowed. They are also banged up at multiple spots, so it's not a surprise to see the 49ers favored despite being on the road. 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Nico Collins - The Texans are 1st in WR usage this month with their neutral pass rate now sitting at 4th-highest in the NFL, allowing Collins to be the WR11 on WR15 usage. Things will get a bit more challenging against stud CB1 Patrick Surtain this week, who will likely split time with Collins and Dell. Last year against Denver, Collins had a 4-58-0 line on 8 targets with Davis Mills at QB. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tank Dell (Questionable) - He's been DNP-limited-limited (calf) in practice with reports suggesting he'll play through his minor injury. Meanwhile, Noah Brown (knee) is expected to return after being limited-limited-DNP. The Texans are resting their starters in practice it appears. 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeVonta Smith - Always efficient on a per-target basis, Smitty is now averaging 10.0 expected half PPR points in games without Dallas Goedert, and there is likely more volume to be had as 3.0-point home dogs to the pass-funnel 49ers. He's the WR10 on WR34 usage this month as an upside WR2. 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Calvin Ridley - This is an "eruption spot" for the Jacksonville passing offense, with the Bengals allowing a league-worst 8.1 yards per pass attempt. More tight sets and underneath routes have unlocked Ridley recently. This Jaguars coaching staff must listen to Stats vs. Film. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DK Metcalf - He remains a positive regression candidate, as he's the WR24 on WR12 usage this month. Since the Week 5 bye, Metcalf is averaging 13.6 expected half PPR points as the Seahawks' clear best receiver. An effort to get the ball out quicker could help his consistency, as he's been better underneath in 2023 than he was earlier in his career. The Seahawks' low team total on a short week on the road is the primary concern. 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Courtland Sutton - He's up to WR16 on WR16 usage this month, while completely separating from the injured Jerry Jeudy. Sutton's risk is in the Broncos' 26th-ranked neutral pass rate, but things could get spicy against the vulnerable Texans in potential negative game script. The Broncos have an above-average 22.0-point team total. We know where the TDs typically go. 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Terry McLaurin - He's a massive positive regression candidate because McLaurin is just the WR47 on WR17 usage this month. There are paths to 50 pass attempts in catch-up mode against the Dolphins, even if we should be concerned by the presence of CB1 Jalen Ramsey (who is balling again). 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Adam Thielen - The Panthers put screen man Laviska Shenault (ankle) on IR, and Bucs CB1 Jamel Dean hasn't practiced. But everything else isn't looking great. Thielen is averaging just 10.0 expected half PPR points since their bye and sits as the WR54 on WR29 usage this month. Here's to hoping the Panthers have a New Coach Bounce in Week 13 against the pass-funnel Bucs. 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Puka Nacua - Elite CB1 Denzel Ward (shoulder) hasn't practiced this week and super-human EDGE1 Myles Garrett wasn't able to lift his arm late in last week's game. That'd make this Browns defense far more beatable. That said, the Rams offense feels a bit different with Kyren Williams back in the lineup. The Rams have been more run heavy this month, and Kupp's return (even through injuries) has dropped Nacua's expected half PPR points down to 11.9 per game. He's firmly a volatile WR2 now. So is Kupp. 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ja'Marr Chase - He had a season-low 5.6 expected half PPR points last week when the Bengals only ran 41 plays. We've officially entered the Garrett Wilson zone of desperation WR2 value thanks to an egregious environment, and the potential return of Tee Higgins (limited) won't help either. The lone saving grace (aside from his talent) is the Jaguars dare teams to pass the ball against them. In fact, offenses facing Jacksonville have the 5th-highest neutral pass rate. 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Downs - 14.9 expected half PPR points on an elite 32% target share in Week 12. 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeAndre Hopkins - Colts CB JuJu Brents hasn't practiced, but WR2 Treylon Burks (concussion) is expected to return. Burks has been one of the worst starting WRs in the NFL when healthy (again). 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandin Cooks - The Cowboys are an elite passing offense with enough volume for another WR behind Lamb to cook. Brandin has stepped up as a vertical option this month. In fact, he's the WR17 on WR45 usage while running pure on TDs. This Dallas offense projects for a lot of them, given their elite 28.5-point team total. Cooks is an upside WR3 as a full-time player. 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Christian Kirk - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Diontae Johnson - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Garrett Wilson - Tim Boyle is unserious football, especially with rain in the forecast. 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett - It's been a forgettable month for Lockett, who is the WR33 on WR31 usage. He's become a TD-or-bust player with more target competition and less yards after the catch ability. Not a great combination with the Seahawks' 19.0-point team total. At least game script works in his favor here. 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashee Rice - He had a season-high in routes and expected half PPR points (10.3) last week due to other injuries. Mecole Hardman (IR) isn't returning, but Kadarius Toney is. Rice had a season-high 3 targets on screens or jet sweeps, an area of the playbook Toney can steal from. Rice profiled better last week but is still a far better bet now than he was before his Post-Bye Rookie Bump. 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Pickens - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy - He went from DNP to limited to full with a groin. 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amari Cooper (Questionable) - He was limited on Thursday and claims he'll play. The Browns are turning to the ghost of Joe Flacco this week in a friendly affair with the Rams. Cooper is averaging 9.1 expected half PPR points (WR3 volume) without Deshaun Watson with very inconsistent results. It's also worth noting how injured this Browns OL is, too. OTs Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills are on IR, while the entire interior OL has been limited in practice. 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Godwin (Questionable) - He went full-limited-DNP (neck) in practice but is expected to play. I don't love the sound of that one. 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Marquise Brown (Questionable) - He played on after DNPs last week, but it's bad news that he didn't practice at all this week. Michael Wilson (out) and Zach Pascal (personal matter) have also not practiced. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jayden Reed (Questionable) - He returned to Friday's practice after 2 DNPs (chest). His ability to create after the catch could be handy against a feisty Chiefs CB group (6th-best vs. WRs) that could limit the traditional dropback game. Reed is the WR13 on WR38 usage this month. 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Christian Watson - 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Drake London - Everything works against London this week. He's only the WR37 on WR55 usage this month with the Falcons dead last in neutral pass rate, and London will see the Jets No. 1 fantasy WR defense and elite CB1 Sauce Gardner in coverage. 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tee Higgins - He returned to limited practice and "plans to play" on Monday Night Football. Higgins isn't a great pairing with Jake Browning's game. It's big-play-or-bust now. 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Curtis Samuel - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jahan Dotson - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - There was some hype after a really sick one-handed catch last game, but the rookie isn't flashing often and currently sits as the WR50 on WR46 usage this month despite already having his Post-Bye Rookie Bump. The optimistic angle here is an offensive goal of getting the ball out quicker (JSN is their screen player) and likely negative game script. He's much better in full PPR. 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Romeo Doubs - He's averaging 8.2 expected half PPR points with Christian Watson, who has skillset overlap. Doubs' matchup this week is difficult, too, as the Chiefs are 4th-best in passing EPA allowed. 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Elijah Moore - Joe Flacco created some of Elijah's best moments in the NFL (7, 5, and 9 targets), and Moore is due for some positive regression right now. He's the WR42 on WR28 usage this month. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zay Jones - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Justin Watson - He's the WR25 in usage this month and is coming off a 63% route game last week. The return of Kadarius could eat into a few snaps, but Watson is the best option down the field (somehow). Green Bay is stingy against fantasy WRs (7th best). 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeVante Parker - This assumes Pop Douglas is out. He's the only full-time WR right now because JuJu's knees can't handle it right now, sadly. 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Greg Dortch - He's had 10.2 and 11.4 expected half PPR points without Michael Wilson (out), but Trey McBride and Marquise Brown are playing. 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonathan Mingo - He's playing poorly on WR52 usage. At least the Bucs are a pass funnel and rookie WRs perform better late in the year. 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jameson Williams - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Treylon Burks - 31.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Quentin Johnston - 19.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jalen Tolbert - He's rotating with Michael Gallup as the X receiver in the offense. 20.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Alec Pierce - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Skyy Moore - He's wearing a big knee brace right now.
Josh Reynolds - 19.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Travis Kelce - Still the top TE by a margin, Kelce's dominance is showing some cracks. His missed tackle rate and average depth of target are the lowest they've been since Mahomes showed up, a trend that matches his thoughts on retirement and general soreness. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a good (not great) team total of 24.25 points against the run-funnel Packers. 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle - Only averaging 7.1 expected half PPR points in games with Deebo, Kittle will most likely have to dunk on my model (as usual) to pay off as an elite TE1. A matchup with the Eagles works in his favor, as they're weakest over the middle and have an offense capable of keeping this a game. 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jake Ferguson - He's the TE8 on TE4 usage this month with the Cowboys ranking 3rd in neutral pass rate. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Taysom Hill - He's the TE12 on TE3 usage this month, and if Chris Olave (limited), Rashid Shaheed (DNP), and Michael Thomas (IR) can't go this week, Taysom's package could not be bigger.
Sam LaPorta - He bounced back in a rare negative game script last week, but LaPorta has been used less in games with both RBs healthy (for multiple reasons). In fact, he's just the TE15 on TE13 usage this month. The Lions have the 3rd-highest team total (25.75 points) this week at the very least. 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trey McBride (Questionable) - He was DNP-limited-limited (groin) in practice but is expected to play through it. 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
David Njoku - He's up to TE9 on TE2 usage this month, and Joe Flacco profiles as a check-down artist where Njoku has shined via screens and check-releases. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Evan Engram - He's a slight positive regression candidate, while being TE23 on TE8 usage this month. The return of Zay Jones and the emergence of a new Calvin Ridley route tree work against Engram's odds of moving the needle. 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Pat Freiermuth - He's had 0.9 and 14.0 expected half PPR points since his return. We'll see if last week's break out was a product of the Bengals' two-high (bad) defense or a new play caller. Freiermuth is a decent player imo, so hopefully it's the latter. We know the Steelers need to throw the ball over the middle. 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Juwan Johnson - We'll monitor Chris Olave (limited) and Rashid Shaheed (DNP). Juwan, who I swear is good, had 9.3 expected half PPR points with them in-and-out of the lineup last week. It helps that the Lions are really bad at the 2nd and 3rd level. 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Logan Thomas - A garbage-time king, Thomas has fallen off recently as the TE21 on TE16 usage. The Dolphins are 9.0-point favorites over the Commanders, so Thomas is available to PPR scam again. He ran 34 routes in a similar game script just last week. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kyle Pitts - The Jets are far worse against TEs than WRs, but Pitts sits as the TE26 on TE25 usage this month with the Falcons now ranking dead last in neutral pass rate. 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gerald Everett - He only ran a route on 57% of Week 12 dropbacks, but Everett still had 8.0 expected half PPR points because he's the only pass-catcher with hands that can break 14 MPH aside from Keenan. If Bill Belichick sells out against Keenan, Everett is a sneaky upside TE2 play here. 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tucker Kraft - Without Luke Musgrave (IR), Kraft ran a route on 31-of-35 dropbacks last week (only 4.6 expected half PPR points though) and the Packers should pass a decent amount against the Chiefs, who are elite against fantasy WRs. Kraft was a reasonable receiving prospect. 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Hunter Henry - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Higbee - He always has 1-2 random games of greatness, and it's almost never worth chasing after they happen. Higbee is just the TE17 in usage this month. 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cade Otton - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Conklin - 22.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chigoziem Okonkwo - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonnu Smith - 18.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tanner Hudson - 20.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Donald Parham - 14.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Noah Fant - 12.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Noah Gray - 13.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The fantasy football defenses of Week 13 are the Falcons (vs. NYJ), Bucs (vs. CAR), Cowboys (vs. SEA), Jets (vs. ATL), Steelers (vs. ARI), Rams (vs. CLE), Chiefs (vs. GB), Jaguars (vs. CIN), Colts (vs. TEN), and Dolphins (vs. WAS).
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.