NFL Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:
Week 14 QB Rankings
1. Jalen Hurts - Eagles at DAL (24.5 team total, 3.5 spread)
2. Dak Prescott - Cowboys vs. PHI (28.0, -3.5)
3. Josh Allen - Bills at KC (23.0, +2.5)
4. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs vs. BUF (25.5, -2.5)
5. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins vs. TEN (30.5, -13.5)
6. Brock Purdy - 49ers vs. SEA (28.5, -10.5)
7. Justin Fields - Lions vs. DET (19.0, +3.0). No DT Aliem McNeil (IR) is a big deal for a Lions defense already struggling to stop Fields' rushing. 20.5 fantasy points in Pick'em.
8. Lamar Jackson - Ravens vs. LAR (23.5, -7.0). Pay attention to weather here. 18.4 fantasy points in Pick'em.
9. Justin Herbert - Chargers vs. DEN (23.25, -3.0)
10. Joshua Dobbs - Vikings at LV (21.75, -3.0). 16.8 fantasy points in Pick'em.
11. Jordan Love - Packers at NYG (21.75, -6.5)
12. C.J. Stroud - Texans at NYJ (19.25, -5.5). Pay attention to weather here.
13. Jared Goff - Lions at CHI (22.5, -3.0). 15.5 fantasy points in Pick'em.
14. Gardner Minshew - Colts at CIN (21.25, -1.0)
15. Russell Wilson - Broncos at LAC (20.75, +3.0)
16. Baker Mayfield - Bucs at ATL (18.25, +2.5). 15.5 fantasy points in Pick'em.
17. Geno Smith - Seahawks at SF (18.0, +10.5)
18. Derek Carr - Saints vs. CAR (21.5, -5.5)
19. Jake Browning - Bengals vs. IND (20.25, +1.0)
20. Desmond Ridder - Falcons vs. TB (20.75, -2.5). 13.5 fantasy points in Pick'em.
21. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars at CLE (17.0, +3.0)
22. Aidan O'Connell - Raiders vs. MIN (18.75, +3.0). 13.5 fantasy points in Pick'em.
23. Matthew Stafford - Rams at BAL (16.5, +7.0). Pay attention to weather here. 14.1 fantasy points in Pick'em.
24. Joe Flacco - Browns vs. JAX (16.75, -3.0). Pay attention to weather.
25. Will Levis - Titans at MIA (17.0, +13.5)
26. Mitch Trubisky - Steelers vs. NE (17.5, -6.0)
27. Zach Wilson - Jets vs. HOU (13.75, +5.5). Pay attention to weather here.
28. Bryce Young - Panthers at NO (16.0, +5.5)
29. Tommy DeVito - Giants vs. GB (15.25, +6.5)
30. Bailey Zappe - Patriots at PIT (12.5, +6.0)
Week 14 RB Rankings
I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.
Christian McCaffrey - The Seahawks are 5th-worst against fantasy RBs and just allowed 114 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, and 5 receptions to CMC just two games ago. In 2022, CMC also had 100+ rushing yards in each of his games against the Seahawks. This is an "eruption spot". 115.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Alvin Kamara - He's back up to RB6 in both usage and production this month, and the Panthers are 3rd worst against fantasy RBs this year. Kamara had 103 rushing yards on 23 carries in his last game against them, and the expected absence of Taysom Hill frees up more red zone work. 97.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Zack Moss - He busted, but Moss's 22.3 expected half PPR points on 95% snaps were season highs. That should even out, as we've seen with him earlier in the year, and this is a great matchup to cash in on a rare bellcow workload. The Bengals are top-10 in rushing production allowed on the 3rd-worst rushing EPA allowed. 93.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bijan Robinson - Since his Post Bye Rookie Bump, Bijan has 14.6 and 14.2 expected half PPR points, bringing his usage up to RB9 overall this month. The Falcons are now the most run-heavy offense (by far), and when they do pass, Bijan is very involved. Tampa Bay is surprisingly 4th-worst in rushing success rate allow and has LB Devin White (out), DT Vita Vea (DNPx3), and LB K.J. Britt (questionable) on the injury report. 92.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kyren Williams - He's had 21.8 and 26.3 expected half PPR points since returning from his injury (RB1 overall usage), but this is a far tougher test. The Ravens are 9th-best against fantasy RBs and the Rams project for just 16.5 points as a team. 92.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Saquon Barkley - He's averaging 14.5 half PPR points on 16.1 expected half PPR points this season and should be fresh off a needed bye. The Giants still only project for 15.25 points with DeVito under center, but they at least get the vulnerable Packers run defense (10th worst against fantasy RBs). Teams facing Green Bay opt for runs at the 2nd-highest rate in neutral situations. 20 touches are fully expected for Saquon. 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
De'Von Achane - It was a large chunk of Raheem Mostert in the 1st half last week, before Acahane was fully unlocked in the 2nd half (even at times with backups). It was great to see Achane healthy and able to handle a meaningful workload, as the Dolphins once again project for a league-high 30.5 points as 13.5-point favorites. The Titans are usual strong against the run but are without star DT Jeffery Simmons (knee) right now. Both Achane and Mostert can pay off with big scores, noting that Mostert has been 5th-best in short yardage success rate as the slight favorite for goal line opportunities. In their 4 healthy games together, Achane leads in expected half PPR points, 15.5 to 11.9. 70.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Raheem Mostert - See RB7 De'Von Achane.
Rachaad White - He's the RB10 on RB11 usage this month as one of the true bellcow backs, but this also isn't a great matchup. The Bucs project for just 18.25 points in Atlanta, where the Falcons have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to RBs. White managed just 36 rushing yards on 13 carries against them earlier this year, though saved his day with 6 receptions. This game environment is unfriendly for fantasy, as the Falcons are bleeding out the clock with runs. 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Josh Jacobs - It's been an up-and-down season for Jacobs, who is averaging 13.2 half PPR points on 16.9 expected half PPR points. This month, Jacobs is the RB19 on RB19 usage. Things look mediocre heading into Week 14, with the Vikings ranking 4th-best against fantasy RBs on an abnormally high 56% neutral pass rate allowed (meaning opposing offenses are choosing to pass). We'll see if things look different coming off the Raiders bye. 91.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Tony Pollard - He's the RB7 in usage this month on a team projected for 28.0 points, which is the 2nd most of the week. That said, the Eagles are the best defense against fantasy RBs, allowing 100 total yards per game on 3 total TDs, and Pollard was stuffed for 63 scoreless yards earlier this year. The only reason for underrated optimism would be positive regression with TDs. 86.5 total yards in Pick'em.
David Montgomery - He's averaging 17.1 half PPPR points on 14.7 expected half PPR with Jahmyr Gibbs as his complementary back. Those are RB1 numbers, especially when the Lions catch positive game script like they did last week. The Lions are 3.0-point favorites against a decent Bears run defense, but Detroit is 2nd in RB usage this month with a run-first identity. In fact, the Lions had a 40% neutral pass rate against Chicago just 3 weeks ago despite losing for most of the game. 70.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Javonte Williams - Things have been stale for Javonte, who finds himself as the RB25 on RB13 usage this month. It wouldn't be a surprise if he's hitting a wall late in the year after a lengthy multi-ligament rehab for his knee tear, but the Chargers are a good matchup, especially without EDGE Joey Bosa (IR). 85.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Joe Mixon - The Bengals found a QB2 hit with Jake Browning, who isn't running the same offense as Joe Burrow. Cincy went under center more and ran it with some success, with Mixon popping up for explosives in the screen game, too. Mixon converted his goal line opportunities, despite losing some between 20s work to rookie Chase Brown for the first time this year. Mixon is the RB8 on RB14 usage this month. The Colts defense is allowing the highest neutral run rate in the NFL this year, meaning teams are opting to run it against them. That'll help. 87.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Travis Etienne - Without Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars project for 13.75 points against the Browns. This string of bad luck (RB30 on RB10 usage this month) likely continues. Expect D'Ernest Johnson to continue mixing in. 83.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jahmyr Gibbs - Monty was subbed in at the goal line to kick off last game, but Gibbs will still rotate drives, play in obvious passing situations, and get some schemed up receptions as an upside RB1-2. It helps that the Bears have allowed the most receiving yards on the 3rd-most receptions to opposing RBs. There is upside here. 70.5 total yards in Pick'em.
James Cook - The Bills have been more RB focused under new OC Joe Brady. Cook is still losing snaps to multiple backs in this committee, but he's still seen 15.2 and 17.0 expected half PPR points in his last two contests. The Bills may opt for a somewhat balanced approach again here, as the Chiefs are 31st in rushing EPA allowed. 68.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Derrick Henry - He was a monster before being put into the concussion protocol last week, but the Titans claim he was never diagnosed with a concussion. If healthy, Henry could begin losing some touches to impressive rookie Tyjae Spears in a projected big loss to the Dolphins, who are 10th-best against fantasy RBs. 68.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Chuba Hubbard - Josh pointed out on Stats vs. Film that the Panthers returned to their power rushing style in Week 13, as they did back in Week 1 and for most of 2022. They found some success with it and may continue to do so after the outside zone scheme failed miserably throughout the year. Hubbard is lapping Miles Sanders on the ground and in pass protection, which is why Hubbard is now up to RB20 on RB24 usage this month. He set a season high with 19.8 expected half PPR points just last week when Byrce Young played some of his best ball of the entire year. 72.5 total yards in Pick'em.
D'Andre Swift - 69.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ezekiel Elliott - Rhamondre Stevenson (out) was the RB9 on RB5 usage this month before his multi-week injury, and when he left last week, it was all Zeke. The Patriots only have change-of-pace options in Ty Montgomery and Jamycal Hasty behind him right now, so a mini bellcow outing is expected for the veteran. That said, the Patriots are projected for 12.5 points on Thursday Night Football. Insane. 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Austin Ekeler - Things look tough. Ekeler has been the RB31 on RB8 usage this month while looking slower, less agile, and less involved. The Chargers are too injured to run the ball effectively, and designed targets to Ekeler aren't working as well this year. That said, this is the ultimate get right spot against the Broncos, who are still allowing the most fantasy points to RBs. 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Isiah Pacheco (out) has re-injured the same shoulder he had surgery on and may go on injured reserve. That leaves the Chiefs with CEH on early downs and Jerick McKinnon on passing downs, until one wins the job out right. The Chiefs average 20.1 expected half PPR points per game to all of their RBs combined, so there is room for both to be upside flex options. CEH was called the "number one" by coach Andy Reid this week, while McKinnon (groin) was able to get in full practices coming off his own injury. It seems like the Chiefs would rather have CEH win this battle, given he's 24 years old versus 31.
Jerome Ford - He's the RB23 on RB27 usage this month, and Joe Flacco is giving this offense some life. Jacksonville's defense dares offenses to pass against them by putting more defenders in the box, resulting in the 3rd-best rushing success rate allowed. That works against Ford, who continues to lose goal line reps to Kareem Hunt. That's because Hunt is converting 77% of his carries with 3-or-fewer yards to go compared to Ford's 35%. 69.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Warren - The Steelers had a ludicrous 36% neutral pass rate in Week 13 while giving up on the pass with QB Mitch Trubisky. The Patriots are 1st in rushing success rate and rushing EPA allowed and now know to sell out against the run even more. These will be hard earned yards for Najee Harris (RB26 usage this month) and Warren (RB31). On top of that, Najee didn't practice this week with a knee injury. 73.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Najee Harris - See RB28 Jaylen Warren. 61.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Breece Hall (Questionable) - Things have collapsed for Breece, who is the RB28 on RB22 usage this month. His straight-line speed is there. The broken tackle rate is down 25%, in part because of an injured OL and broken offense. Hall was subbed out for the ghost of Dalvin Cook in Week 13 following national reporters suggesting it would happen. With the Jets eliminated, there are no reasons for this team to risk Breece coming back from his multi-ligament knee tear. Consider this a lost season for the talented but compromised future bellcow. He went DNP-DNP-limited in practice. 74.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kenneth Walker (Questionable) - Both Walker and Zach Charbonnet went DNP-limited-full in practice this week, making them both likely to play. In their last 3 games together, Walker has 8.9 expected half PPR points to the rookie's 5.5. This is a terrible matchup against the 49ers, who just limited Charbonnet to 58 total yards earlier this month. 59.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Keaton Mitchell - In Week 12 before the bye, the Ravens deployed a full-blown 3-RB committee. Justice Hill led with 7.2 expected half PPR points thanks to a goal line opportunity, followed by Mitchell (5.7), and then Gus Bus (4.2). The hope is Mitchell steals Hill's job after his Post Bye Rookie Bump, but this is an uncertain backfield with a boom-bust projection. It'd be a surprise if the undersized Mitchell ends up with the goal line role even if his snap share goes up down the stretch. 59.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Gus Edwards - See RB27 Keaton Mitchell. 41.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jerick McKinnon - See RB24 Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
AJ Dillon - We'll see if Aaron Jones (knee) can practice this week. Dillon has underperformed on 11.1, 12.6, and 13.1 expected half PPR points in his absence. The Giants are 7th-worst against fantasy RBs, so Dillon's odds of a spike week are better than usual.
Alexander Mattison - He's the RB41 on RB34 usage this month, while Ty Chandler is the RB38 on RB43 usage. This is a split committee on a team with a dual-threat QB and three high-end pass catchers. No thanks. 63.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Roschon Johnson - He had 12.2 expected half PPR points as the lead back before last week's bye, but the Bears have D'Onta Foreman available this time to potentially muddy up touches again. It'd make sense if the Bears wanted to see the rookie down the stretch, however, and the Lions just put stud DT Aliem McNeil on injured reserve. 25.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Devin Singletary - He was held to just 5.6 expected half PPR points with Dameon Pierce rotating in quite evenly and stealing the lone inside the 5-yard line carry (again). This is a low-floor committee, especially with the Texans projected for just 19.25 points while playing in New York.
Dameon Pierce - See RB33 Devin Singletary.
Ty Chandler - See RB35 Alexander Mattison.
Dalvin Cook - This might be a "Dalvin Week" if those exist.
Khalil Herbert
Kenneth Gainwell
Joshua Kelley
Kareem Hunt
Zach Charbonnet (Questionable) - See RB25 Kenneth Walker.
Tyjae Spears - See RB19 Derrick Henry. 35.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jamaal Williams - Potentially no Taysom Hill helps.
Tyler Allgeier - 31.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Miles Sanders - See RB20 Chuba Hubbard.
Samaje Perine
Rico Dowdle
D'Ernest Johnson
D'Onta Foreman
Chase Brown
Week 14 WR Rankings
Tyreek Hill - The Titans have yet to play this version of the Dolphins offense, and teams that haven't seen it typically get absolutely smoked. On top of that, the Titans pass-funnel defense has allowed the 3rd-most WR receptions. It's another "eruption spot" for the distant MVP candidate. He's literally always open. Insanity. 104.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
CeeDee Lamb - The WR1 in usage this month, Lamb projects like a top-5 fantasy asset in this pass-heavy offense. That projection is aided by the Eagles' pass-funnel, struggling defense. In fact, Philly is averaging 3.8 more half PPR points to fantasy WRs than the 2nd-worst defense. They've particularly been exposed in the slot at times, where Lamb is splitting his time. 89.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
A.J. Brown - The Cowboys play the most man coverage in the NFL, and AJB is the WR3 overall in yards per route run against man coverage this season. He's had 7-66-1, 6-103-0, and 5-67-1 receiving lines against Dallas, with those games including CB1 Trevon Diggs. It's an "eruption spot" after new CB1 Daron Bland was exposed by DK Metcalf recently. 78.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Keenan Allen - Playing through injury against a feisty Patriots defense, Keenan had a rare down game on 10.6 expected half PPR points. Hopefully he's not running out of gas, but full practices will get me very confident again. He hung an 8-102-2 receiving line in his last game against the Broncos. 85.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Stefon Diggs - Nothing about this matchup is clean. The Chiefs are 2nd in passing success rate allowed, and the Bills only project for 23.5 points on the road here. But Diggs has performed best in 2-TE sets (Knox returns) and I don't see the Bills coming off their bye week without making Diggs a huge part of the game plan again. He's been the WR32 in usage this month. That can't continue without a full-blown Diggs meltdown. 71.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Deebo Samuel - He's averaged 14.1 half PPR points in 8 games with Brandon Aiyuk, while still seeing his signature screen and RB usage particularly against poor tackling defenses. The Seahawks are worse up the middle than they are at outside CB, even if CB Devon Witherspoon is an aggressive hitter. Deebo has 22.1 half PPR points per game in his 4 contests with the Seahawks since 2020. Pretty good! 69.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Michael Pittman - He's coming off a season-high 21.1 expected half PPR points, and the Colts offense is suddenly 4th in neutral pass rate this month. Pittman is a layup line receiver short and intermediate with underrated YAC ability for a tall player. The Bengals are 9th-worst in WR receiving yards allowed on the 2nd-worst passing success rate allowed. This is a great matchup with the Colts projected for an above-average 22.5 points. 74.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Evans - He's the WR4 on WR5 usage this month. Dog. This week, the Falcons have CB1 A.J. Terrell (concussion) and CB Jeff Okudah (ankle) on the injury report. 73.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Things have slightly slowed down in recent weeks with both RBs incentivizing the Lions to go with a more run-heavy approach. He's been the WR10 on WR7 usage this month as one of the most consistent players in all of fantasy. 74.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Davante Adams - He's the WR22 on WR9 usage this month, and this is a nice get right spot coming off the bye. The Vikings have allowed the 4th-most WR receptions this season on the 4th-highest neutral pass rate. Adams is a mismatch here, especially now that he's completely removed from the injury report. 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ja'Marr Chase - Jake Browning is good enough! The Bengals project for an above-average 21.5 points this week against a Colts defense still without CB JuJu Brents (and potentially two of their top LBs). Chase is the WR12 on WR25 usage this month as a boom-bust WR2. 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Justin Jefferson - He's back and completely off the injury report. Things just look a lot different with dual-threat Josh Dobbs, who is on the verge of a potential benching. The Vikings are 29th in WR usage this month and only project for 21.75 points in Vegas. 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandon Aiyuk - In 7 career games against the Seahawks, Aiyuk has just 8.7 half PPR points per game. And right now, Aiyuk is just the WR50 in usage this month with Deebo very much back at full health. Aiyuk doesn't need monster volume to get home, but the Seahawks are best on the perimeter compared to up the gut. The 49ers' 28.0-point team total is a good sign of him still paying off despite the iffy splits. 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Nico Collins - This month, Collins is the WR5 on WR6 usage, while Tank Dell was the WR7 on WR4 usage before his season-ending injury. Stroud is capable of winning difficult matchups by throwing vertical at all times. Collins' elite athleticism and size have turned him into a true alpha receiver on tape, but the Jets are the No. 1 fantasy WR defense headlined by CB1 Sauce Gardner. That said, there aren't "shadow corners" in 2023, so Collins will only see him on half of his snaps or so. I'm okay going into battle with Collins as long as Stroud is his QB, especially if Dalton Schultz (hamstring) is out again. Keep an eye out for the weather report here. 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DJ Moore - He's averaging 14.3 half PPR points on 9.6 expected half PPR points this season while running hot on TDs and deep targets. This is a good matchup against the Lions, whomsth are 30th in passing success rate allowed while playing with multiple backups. Just two games ago, Moore hung a 7-96-1 receiving line on 39% targets against Detroit in a close loss. 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Olave - He's the WR17 in usage this month without Michael Thomas and likely Rashid Shaheed (DNP) again, but it's unclear if Derek Carr (limited) will play through all of his injuries. It'd be nice if it was Full Send Jameis because the Panthers are a bit of a run funnel, which is why Carolina is somehow 7th best against fantasy WRs. 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Courtland Sutton - He's the WR21 on WR21 usage this month as the Broncos red zone and downfield alpha. This is a great matchup for him indoors against the Chargers' 3rd-worst fantasy WR defense, one missing EDGE Joey Bosa. 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Waddle - He's the WR28 on WR28 usage this month, and now the Dolphins have both of their RBs healthy. The good news is Waddle is very good and the Titans aren't. Boom-bust. 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeVonta Smith - He's averaged 12.1 expected half PPR points without Dallas Goedert compared to just 7.8 with him. His return works against Smitty, but I'd be surprised if Smith returned to his early-season woes. He's simply too good, and the Eagles defense is far worse in 2023 than it was during last year's Super Bowl run. That'll especially be true this week against the Cowboys. 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DK Metcalf - The 49ers just shredded the Seahawks defense, Seattle could be without both of their RBs, and offenses facing San Francisco already throw the ball in neutral situations at the 2nd-highest rate. All signs point to Metcalf seeing close to double-digit targets against a good, not great secondary. He's had 9, 13, and 9 targets in his last contests with his rival. 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandin Cooks - This is an "eruption spot" for one of the most efficient receivers in the game attached to my current MVP, Dak Prescott. Cooks is up to the WR15 on WR44 usage as the primary downfield target. The Eagles' brand name CBs have struggled all year, though they did shut down Cooks (1-7-0) last game while Lamb torched (11-191-0). Expect that to even out here. 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeAndre Hopkins - This is a boom-bust profile. Hopkins is seeing plenty of downfield targets, but Will Levis sprays passes and the Titans are just 28th in neutral pass rate. Hopkins will see some of CB1 Jalen Ramsey in Vic Fangio's two-shell defense, so this isn't an easy matchup on the surface. He's the WR27 on WR19 usage this month. That feels right. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashee Rice - He's coming off a season-high 11.6 expected half PPR points, largely as a manufactured touch player in this gimmicky offense. Rice is the WR24 on WR26 usage this month with more playing time, and the Bills are just 21st in passing success rate allowed with a ton of injuries at all levels of the field. 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jayden Reed - This assumes Christian Watson (DNP) can't play against the man-heavy Giants. Reed has the most yards per route run (1.6) against man coverage of the healthy Packers skill players, with Rome Doubs down at 0.6 YPRR. New York is not only 4th-worst against fantasy WRs, but they've also allowed a league-high 3 rushing TDs from WRs, something the Packers have made a priority with Reed all season long. It's time to go in on Reed's impressive tape. 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Garrett Wilson - His yards per target go from 4.9 to 6.5 with Zach Wilson, who is simply better than Tim Boyle. It's still not a big improvement, as the Jets still project for just 15.0 points at home against the Texans. There are weather concerns here, and CB1 Derek Stingley is really starting to emerge. 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Puka Nacua - Weather forecasts call for rain and 20-30 MPH wind gusts, in what could be a run-heavy game plan for both teams. The Ravens are already 2nd against fantasy WRs in normal conditions. Nacua is a stud, but this is the worst set up for him of the season. He's averaged 12.2 half PPR points on 11.4 expected half PPR points with Cooper Kupp, who isn't seeing any screens this year because he's lost a step physically. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Adam Thielen - The veteran was the WR7 in PFF grade before their Week 7 bye, but Thielen has been the WR55 since. His juice looks drained. Defenses have adjusted to the underneath option routes. And the Panthers are running the ball more. That said, Thielen is still capable of 10+ targets and did have a solid 7-54-1 receiving line against the Saints in Week 2. New Orleans is without CB1 Marshon Lattimore. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Romeo Doubs - The Packers are 4th in WR usage this month. No Christian Watson means it's a lot easier for Doubs to be the primary read on downfield looks. 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Downs - The rookie is one of the biggest positive regression candidates right now. He's been the WR72 on WR24 usage this month with the Colts ranking 5th in neutral pass rate. Shane Steichen has schemed Downs against LBs at elite rates, so a big game feels inevitable. This is a good matchup to take advantage. 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Godwin - It's a good sign that he was completely left off the injury report (neck) this week after playing his usual snaps in Week 13. Godwin scored a TD on a designed touch but has been lapped by Evans in terms of targets. He's only the WR51 in usage this month, a trend that should improve now that he appears healthier. His matchup against an injured Falcons defense is favorable. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zay Flowers - No Mark Andrews helps, but Zay is only the WR45 in usage this month with the Ravens successfully running it with multiple backs. Flowers also has to battle the weather and the Rams' 10th-ranked fantasy WR defense. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amari Cooper (Questionable)
Calvin Ridley - This assumes Trevor Lawrence is out, given the Jaguars 13.75-point team total. Christian Kirk (IR) being out helps Ridley's odds of some easier targets, but it's hard to see C.J. Beathard having Lawrence's aggressiveness and accuracy on Ridley's typical deep sideline targets.
Drake London - The Falcons' 36% neutral pass rate this month makes it very difficult for London to have a spike week. He's only the WR56 on WR59 usage this month, but the Bucs are a pass funnel. They've allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs this season, and London has 6-45-0, 6-120-0, and 4-35-0 receiving lines against them to start his career. 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - He's been one of the worst receivers this year, while clearly lacking the juice and balance that Kupp typically has when actually healthy. On top of it, weather and matchup work against Kupp. A full reset is in order. 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett - He's had 4.5, 6.9, 10.3, and 15.2 half PPR points against the 49ers recently, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is finally popping up with targets since their bye week. Lockett isn't seeing as many deep shots and has a career-low in yards after the catch this year. His projection would be better if the RBs can't suit up. 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Noah Brown - In his return from injury, Brown led the Texans in Week 13 routes. He'll fill in for Tank Dell in 2-WR sets and can operate down the field at times, but this is a significant downgrade. In Brown's 5 healthy games (some as the clear No. 2 receiver like he is now), he's averaging 11.4 half PPR points on just 7.4 expected half PPR points. A boom-bust profile likely emerges down the stretch, with this week's matchup certainly working against him.
Gabe Davis - He's the WR38 on WR38 usage this month, but the Chiefs are best on the perimeter and preventing deep passes. Josh pointed out that Kansas City has been far worse stopping the second option in the pass game at least. 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tee Higgins - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jakobi Meyers - He had a season-low 4.4 expected half PPR points coming off his injury, in what likely will be a more without 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Diontae Johnson - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Pickens - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - He's averaged 8.6 half PPR points on 7.2 expected half PPR points since his Week 5 bye, and this is a spot to get more involved as large underdogs to the pass-funnel 49ers. 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Elijah Moore - This assumes Amari Cooper (concussion) is in. Moore is a chaotic route runner with very inconsistent results, but at least Joe Flacco gives him shots, even downfield. Over the last two weeks, Moore has had 14.3 and 15.8 expected half PPR points with Amari banged up but those were a lot of prayers. He'll battle windy, rainy conditions in Week 14 (more on that later in the week).
Jordan Addison - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonathan Mingo - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Odell Beckham - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Quentin Johnston - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Alec Pierce - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jameson Williams - 19.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jalin Hyatt - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Boyd - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darnell Mooney - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Justin Watson - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zay Jones
Darius Slayton - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DJ Chark - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Robert Woods
Khalil Shakir - The return of Dawson Knox puts Shakir's playing time in jeopardy.
Dontayvion Wicks
Week 14 TE Rankings
Travis Kelce - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jake Ferguson - 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Sam LaPorta - 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Kincaid - Dawson Knox was a full participant all week and should be returning. Kincaid's TE11 usage from this last month likely takes a hit. We'll see how much 2-TE sets the Bills opt for again after pivoting to 3-WR sets during his absence. 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Isaiah Likely - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cole Kmet - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Evan Engram
David Njoku
Dallas Goedert - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kyle Pitts - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gerald Everett - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brevin Jordan - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Conklin - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Pat Freiermuth - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tucker Kraft - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Juwan Johnson - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cade Otton - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tanner Hudson - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Hunter Henry - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dawson Knox
Donald Parham
Michael Mayer - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Week 14 Fantasy Defenses For Sickos
The fantasy football defenses of Week 14 are the Packers (vs. NYG), Dolphins (vs. TEN), Texans (vs. NYJ), Steelers (vs. NE), Browns (vs. JAX), Saints (vs. CAR), Patriots (vs. PIT), and Ravens (vs. LAR).
Underdog Fantasy "Battle Royale" DFS
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.