NFL Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
Congrats to you for still knowing how to read in 2024. If you forgot how to read, good news! We're on YouTube as well.
Week 13 Fantasy Football Recap Notes
Week 14 RB Rankings
Saquon Barkley- 135.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Good luck to those facing him this week. Eruption spot. The Eagles are projected for the most points.
Alvin Kamara - 121.5 total yards in Pick'em.
No Taysom Hill (ACL plus), and Jamaal Williams only saw a few snaps last week in his return. That leaves Kamara with a ridiculous touch projection and all the red zone work, unless Rizzy gets Kendre Miller involved.
De'Von Achane - 92.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Dolphins are projected for the 7th-most points.
That's 19.7 half PPR points in games with Tua this season, not to mention the freaky stuff he did as a rookie. Achane's quickly becoming the best receiving weapon at the position, which ultimately gets us more fantasy points. He's the greatest PPR scam on turf (complementary), and now Raheem Mostert is not expected to play.
Chase Brown - 102.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB6 on RB3 overall usage this month and still hasn't lost touches to Khalil Herbert, despite the recent bye week.
This is an eruption spot. The Bengals are projected for the 3rd-most points.
Josh Jacobs - 94.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB1 on RB2 overall usage this month with the Packers becoming the most run-heavy team in neutral game scripts. It's also good news that Jordan Love looks healthy again. They will score plenty of points down the stretch. The Packers are projected for the 9th-most points this week.
The defensive players that matter who are hurt for Detroit:
DT: DJ Reader (Q), Levi Onwuzuriko (Q), Kyle Peko, Mekhi Wingo
EDGE: Aidan Hutchinson, Marcus Davenport, Josh Pascal (Q), James Houston, John Cominsky
LB: Alex Anzalone, Malcolm Rodriguez, Derrick Barnes, Jalen Reeves-Maybin
CB: Carlton Davis (Q), Ennis Rakestraw
S: Ifeatu Melifonwu
Bijan Robinson - 95.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB4 on RB7 usage this month.
This is the best rushing EPA defense, by far. And teams have stopped trying to run the ball against the Vikings because they have extra bodies in the lanes pre-snap.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 93.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB8 on RB22 usage this month.
The Lions are projected for the 2nd-most points.
James Conner - 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB19 on RB19 usage this month.
Zach Charbonnet - 94.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kenneth Walker (ankle) left late last week and finished this week of practices with back-to-back DNPs. It's not looking good for Walker, though this is a very important game for the Seahawks. Without Walker earlier this year, Charbonnet had 13.8 and 15.1 expected half PPR point usage (roughly RB1/2 numbers). He'll be the goal-line back and is capable on passing downs, too. I'd expect bellcow usage.
Kyren Williams - 83.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Coach Sean McVay said it's "the human being" as to why he believes in Kyren so much as the lead back. Even with Blake Corum getting a few more reps than normal, Kyren is clearly the top dog still because he's so trusted. The bigger issue for Kyren right now are his splits with both star WRs healthy. He's averaging 13.6 expected half PPR points with them compared to 18.1 in games with one or both out. The Rams are just passing the ball more in key situations.
Bucky Irving - 93.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He was DNP-DNP-limited (hip) in practice and is playing through ailments.
The new leader in RB usage is Tampa Bay. Irving had a takeover last week, setting a new season-high with 22.4 expected half PPR points. He made the most of them against the weak Panthers, but every week his tape has been nice. Irving won't get all of the goal-line or receiving work, but he does project for far more early-down touches now following his Post Bye Rookie Bump.The Bucs are projected for the 5th-most points.
James Cook - 82.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB7 on RB19 usage this month.
The Bills are projected for the 4th-most points.
Rico Dowdle - 87.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's coming off a season-high 17.2 expected half PPR points, completely dusting Zeke to a distant backup role. We're approaching "too big to fail" territory for the contract year back.
This is an eruption spot against the Bengals, who have a key DT on injured reserve.
Tony Pollard - 88.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tyjae Spears was active last week, but Pollard handled 73% of the snaps and 11.3 expected half PPR points in a blowout loss. That was the least ideal game script and he still profiles as an RB2.
David Montgomery - 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB9 on RB17 usage this month.
The Lions are projected for the 2nd-most points.
Najee Harris - 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Steelers are projected for the 8th-most points, and George Pickens (hamstring) is questionable. That'd help Najee's touchdown odds, as Pittsburgh does design red zone looks to their star receiver.
He's averaging 13.6 half PPR points on 15.9 expected points with castaway Russell Wilson. That would make him the RB13 on RB11 usage.
Aaron Jones - 86.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB21 on RB14 usage this month.
The Vikings are projected for the 6th-most points.
Isaac Guerendo - 92.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The 49ers are projected for the 9th-most points.
My pre-draft evaluation on him is here. In short, Shanahan will have to change his run game to fit his perimeter run strengths. I expect Deebo Samuel to play a little RB with Patrick Taylor around for some passing downs.
Isiah Pacheco - 66.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He rotated with Kareem Hunt last game, but Pacheco immediately looked better and now gets extended rest to get closer to a firm 1a role.
Tyrone Tracy - 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot based on efficiency (NO is last in rushing success rate since Week 5), but the Giants project for the 3rd-fewest points this week.
At risk of being bench for another fumble, Tracy split work early on before dominating snaps and touches in the second half last week (when the game was still competitive). Tracy is more likely to be the clear 1a than in an even split, pending another fumble.
D'Andre Swift (Questionable) - 74.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He went DNP-DNP-limited with a quad injury and is questionable. Roschon Johnson (concussion) is out, so it'd be Travis Homer and Darrynton Evans as the backups. Swift largely with Johnson and new play-caller Thomas Brown has been the RB30 on RB31 usage this month. His projection looks better than that if he's playing.
49ers EDGE Nick Bosa (hip) is doubtful.
Braelon Allen - 73.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Breece Hall (MCL) is out, potentially for multiple weeks in a totally lost season. Allen impressed early but has slowed down recently, even losing touches to Isaiah Davis last week. The Jets remain one of the worst offenses (5th-fewest projected points this week). Hall was the RB12 on RB26 usage this month for what it's worth.
Chuba Hubbard - 69.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Panthers project for the fewest points this week.
His 5.7 expected half PPR points from last week were his lowest since Week 1. Jonathan Brooks had an entire drive to himself, and then Hubbard fumbled the game away on their last play. This is a volatile projection, one that is meaningfully worse than his previous workload (RB5 usage this month).
Sincere McCormick
Last week, Zamir White (out) and Alexander Mattison (doubtful) didn't play. Ameer Abdullah started, but it was McCormick who finished the game as the clear top back. Afterwards, coach Antonio Pierce said he wants to get McCormick even more work. Abdullah is nothing more than a career special-teamer and pass-down RB3, so it makes sense to transition to the younger, more run-based back.
Rachaad White - 52.5 total yards in Pick'em.
It's not completely Joever for White, despite the rookie's emergence because Tampa Bay is still leading the league in RB usage this month. White still saw back-to-back goal line touches last week for example. Hosting the Raiders at home gives White some RB3 love during bye week hell. It is a full re-set, however. Irving has been too good on the ground to ignore.
The Bucs are projected for the 5th-most points.
Nick Chubb - 47.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB22 on RB27 usage this month, even without picking up receiving work or showing off his old explosive runs. Neither may come back, but Chubb is still the goal-line option for a very serviceable offense under Jameis Winston. The Browns project for the 4th-fewest points this week.
Jaylen Warren - 55.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's averaging 9.2 half PPR points on 10.6 expected with Russell Wilson.
Travis Etienne
The Jaguars project for the 2nd-fewest points this week.
He's averaging 7.3 expected half PPR points in his last 3 games with Tank Bigsby.
Kimani Vidal
The Chargers are projected for the 6th-fewest points this week.
Hassan Haskins was removed after a FB fumble early, so now the rookie just has to leap frog Gus Edwards (career-low 3.4 YPC) for a meaningful workload. Will that happen this week? I'm not sure. But we're at the point where it's definitely in the range of outcomes. I'm very confident Vidal is the better player, certainly as a pass catcher.
Gus Edwards
Kareem Hunt
Jonathon Brooks
Tank Bigsby
Jaylen Wright
Raheem Mostert is a long shot to play.
Ameer Abdullah
Isaiah Davis
Jerome Ford
Blake Corum
Ray Davis
Cam Akers
Tyler Allgeier
Devin Singletary
Trey Benson
Week 14 WR Rankings
Ja'Marr Chase - 77.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bengals are projected for the 3rd-most points.
Justin Jefferson - 85.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jefferson is leading in 20+ yard receptions (20), making him the most obvious positive regression candidate for more TDs (5).
The Vikings are projected for the 6th-most points.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 71.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions are projected for the 2nd-most points.
A.J. Brown - 77.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Eagles are projected for the most points. This is an eruption spot.
Dallas Goedert (knee) is out, but DeVonta Smith was a full participant.
Mike Evans - 69.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
His expected points are up to 13.7 without Chris Godwin. That was 10.5 previously.
The Bucs are projected for the 4th-most points. This is an eruption spot.
Raiders CBs Nate Hobbs (DNP) and Jakorian Bennett (IR) haven't played.
Tee Higgins - 72.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bengals are projected for the 3rd-most points.
Puka Nacua - 76.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR6 on WR5 usage this month. The Bills will make teams through underneath, however. It's a tough matchup.
Drake London - 68.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR27 on WR4 usage this month. Positive regression coming.
Vikings CB Stephon Gilmore (hamstring) is on the injury report. They've allowed the most fantasy points to WRs.
CeeDee Lamb - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR38 on WR13 usage this month while playing through an injury.
Cooper Kupp - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR11 on WR21 usage this month, with Puka getting a higher-than-ever portion of the manufactured plays called for him.
Calvin Ridley - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaguars CB1 Tyson Campbell (thigh) is on the injury report. The Jaguars have allowed the highest EPA per pass attempt, by far.
Jerry Jeudy - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Browns are projected for the 4th-fewest points, but who cares? Truly? He's the WR2 on WR7 usage this month. The increase in "runaway" routes has made the difference in Cleveland. No more wasted movement as a route runner. Just run, baby.
Cedric Tillman (concussion) is out.
Tyreek Hill - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR20 on WR16 usage this month with Tua.
The Dolphins are projected for the 7th-most points.
Jets CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring) is out.
Brian Thomas - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Last week was a season-high 16.6 expected half PPR points without Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis. He'll need them with the Jaguars projected for the 2nd-fewest points.
DK Metcalf - 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR23 in usage this month. Regression is coming soon.
Jauan Jennings - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Let's throw out the backup QB and snow games. We're back to Jennings as a clear focal point with Deebo Samuel struggling and with CMC on IR. He was a fringe WR1 in that role. Let's party again.
The 49ers are projected for the 10th-most points.
Keenan Allen
I'm projecting D.J. Moore and D'Andre Swift in. Roschon Johnson, out.
He's averaging 15.1 expected points with OC Thomas Brown, compared to 10.2 with Shane Waldron.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR9 on WR38 usage this month. In games with Metcalf, he's averaging 10.1 half PPR points on 10.5 expected, but those numbers include the down early-season production.
Jayden Reed - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Packers are projected for the 9th-most points, and the Lions have (easily) allowed the most WR receptions this year. Romeo Doubs (concussion) is out.
Davante Adams - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR30 on WR3 overall usage this month. With the struggling Aaron Rodgers, he's averaging 10.3 half PPR points on 14.3 expected.
The Dolphins have allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs.
Garrett Wilson - 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's averaging 10.8 half PPR points on 11.2 expected with Davante Adams. It hasn't been pretty for the most part.
The Dolphins have allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs.
George Pickens (Questionable) - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He left Friday's practice with a hamstring injury. That's never a good sign.
The Steelers are projected for the 8th-most points.
Jameson Williams - 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions are projected for the 2nd-most points.
Packers CB Jaire Alexander is out.
Jakobi Meyers (Questionable) - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR22 on WR9 usage this month and has been a WR2 in fantasy for months. That's further solidified with Raiders WR3 D.J. Turner (knee) on IR and in this matchup. The Buccaneers defense is getting lit up right now, and FS Jordan Whitehead went to IR.
Meyers went full-DNP-limited in practice (ankle) and is questionable. That's not my favorite practice trend to be honest. I've moved him down to account for the injury risk. The national insiders believe he'll play.
DJ Moore (Questionable)
He didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday (quad) but was limited on Friday. The Bears didn't call up another WR on Saturday, so Moore is likely good to go.
Darnell Mooney - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Vikings CB Stephon Gilmore (hamstring) is on the injury report. They've allowed the most fantasy points to WRs.
Deebo Samuel
He's the WR67 on WR54 usage this month. It also doesn't look right on tape, but he does better without a steady group of RBs.
The 49ers are projected for the 10th-most points.
DeVonta Smith - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was a full participant all week and should be ready for a majority of the snaps. It helps that Dallas Goedert is out.
The Eagles are projected for the most points.
Marvin Harrison - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR26 on WR31 usage this month. We had a length conversation about his film on Stats vs. Film.
Elijah Moore - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Browns are projected for the 4th-fewest points, but who cares? Truly?
He's the WR25 on WR18 usage this month.
Jordan Addison - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR19 on WR20 usage this month as the Post Route King.
The Vikings are projected for the 6th-most points.
Ladd McConkey (Questionable)
Last week was a season-high 16.2 expected half PPR points, and he's the WR5 in yards per route vs. man coverage across the entire season. He's a machine, and the the Chiefs pass defense can be had. We just don't know if he's truly hurt or will continue to battle through injuries. It's obvious on film that he's not 100%, despite the lit up box scores.
In practices, he was limited all week while dealing with AC joint (shoulder) and knee injuries. This one is a "real" questionable and is unfortunately played on SNF against the Chiefs. You'll need a Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, or other flex option to hold out any hope.
Xavier Worthy - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
This is what regression looks like on tape.
That's 260 yards and 5 touchdowns evaporated. Let's say they were all caught (we can't but let's play that game for X formerly known as Twitter), Xavier Worthy would be the WR6 in half PPR. WR6!!!
DeAndre Hopkins
He's averaging 11.9 half PPR points on 11.1 expected as a full-time Chief.
Jaylen Waddle - 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Dolphins are projected for the 7th-most points.
Christian Watson - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Packers are projected for the 9th-most points. Romeo Doubs (concussion) is out.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Malik Nabers (questionable) left Thursday's practice and didn't suit up on Friday with a new hip flexor injury. Seems important for a receiver, so I'm projecting him out until news suggests otherwise. Robinson will eat up a large chunk of those underneath targets, especially with TE Theo Johnson on IR. Still, the Giants are projected for the 3rd-fewest points.
Khalil Shakir - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bills are projected for the 5th-most points. I'm expecting Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman to play.
Adam Thielen - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He had a season-high 16.0 expected half PPR points last week, but the Panthers are projected for the fewest points.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR5 on WR71 usage this month, but the Saints are losing bodies out here.
Giants CB Deonte Banks (ribs) is on the injury report.
Parker Washington - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He had a season-high 18.5 expected half PPR points as the primary underneath option without Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis.
The Jaguars are projected for the 2nd-fewest points.
Amari Cooper
The Bills are projected for the 5th-most points.
Quentin Johnston
This assumes Ladd McConkey plays through his injuries.
Joshua Palmer
This assumes Ladd McConkey plays through his injuries.
Rome Odunze
Dontayvion Wicks - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Packers are projected for the 9th-most points. Romeo Doubs (concussion) is out.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tre Tucker
Jakobi Meyers is questionable (likely to play) and D.J. Turner is on IR.
Darius Slayton
Keon Coleman (Questionable)
He was limited all week (wrist) and is questionable again. This is the first time I think there's a chance he'll play. The Bills are projected for the 5th-most points.
Sterling Shepard
The Bucs are projected for the 4th-most points.
Xavier Legette - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Panthers are projected for the fewest points.
Van Jefferson
Mike Williams
The Steelers are projected for the 8th-most points. This assumes George Pickens isn't 100% with a new hamstring injury. Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin played more snaps than Big Mike last week, but Big Mike would be the logical Pickens replacement if he were to miss.
Michael Wilson - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Demarcus Robinson
Ray-Ray McCloud - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandin Cooks
Only 22-of-42 routes in his return, but that could increase.
Calvin Austin
KaVontae Turpin
Week 14 QB Rankings
Jalen Hurts - Eagles (29.25 team total, -12.0 spread) vs. CAR
Josh Allen - Bills (26.75, -4.5) at LAR
Joe Burrow - Bengals (27.5, -5.5) at DAL
Sam Darnold - Vikings (25.5, -5.5) vs. ATL
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs (23.0, -4.0) vs. LAC
Baker Mayfield - Bucs (26.5, -6.5) vs. LV
Jordan Love - Packers (24.0, +3.5) at DET
Kyler Murray - Cardinals (23.5, -2.5) vs. SEA
Brock Purdy - 49ers (24.0, -4.0) vs. CHI
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins (25.5, -6.5) vs. NYJ
Jared Goff - Lions (27.5, -3.5) vs. GB
Russell Wilson - Steelers (25.25, -6.5) vs. CLE
Geno Smith - Seahawks (21.0, +2.5) at ARI
Justin Herbert - Chargers (19.5, +4.0) at KC
Caleb Williams - Bears (20.0, +4.0) at SF
Nick Bosa (oblique) is out.
Jameis Winston - Browns (19.25, +6.5) at PIT
Challenge accepted.
Matthew Stafford - Rams (22.25, +4.5) vs. BUF
Will Levis - Titans (22.0, -3.5) vs. JAX
Cooper Rush - Cowboys (22.0, +5.5) vs. CIN
Derek Carr - Saints (22.75, -4.5) at NYG
Aidan O'Connell - Raiders (20.0, +6.5) at TB
Drew Lock - Giants (18.25, +4.5) vs. NO
Kirk Cousins - Falcons (20.0, +5.5) at MIN
Aaron Rodgers - Jets (19.5, +6.5) at MIA
Bryce Young - Panthers (16.75, +12.0) at PHI
Mac Jones - Jaguars (17.5, +3.5) at TEN
Week 14 TE Rankings
Brock Bowers - 71.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trey McBride - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Travis Kelce - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
David Njoku - 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
In 11 games with Joe Flacco and Jameis Winston, Njoku is averaging 13.8 half PPR points. That's the equivalent to the WR9 this year. WR9!!!
Jonnu Smith - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Sam LaPorta - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jake Ferguson
T.J. Hockenson - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Evan Engram - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tucker Kraft - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Pat Freiermuth - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cade Otton - 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Juwan Johnson - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Will Dissly
Cole Kmet - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kyle Pitts - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dawson Knox
Noah Gray
Mike Gesicki
Grant Calcaterra - 20.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Noah Fant - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chig Okonkwo - 21.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tommy Tremble
Tyler Conklin
Week 14 Defenses For Sickos
Eagles - Let's see if this new era Bryce can beat an actually good defense.
Steelers - Jameis leads a 500+ yard defense last week. Denver still is DEF2.
Vikings - Extra pressure for Kirk Cousins, who hasn't moved well recently.
Dolphins - No ground game, and Rodgers has crumbled vs. pressure.
Saints - Drew Lock with potentially backup OTs? That's a recipe.
Titans - They are super beat up on defense, but so are the Jags on O.
49ers - It'd be nice if Nick Bosa played. Still, Caleb takes sacks.