NFL Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 14 Fantasy Football Recap Notes
Week 15 RB Rankings
Derrick Henry - 107.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB15 on RB23 usage this month.
The Ravens project for the most points this week ... as 15-point favorites. 15!!!!!! That just doesn't happen in the NFL. Part of the reason the spread is that substantial is because three Giants DTs are on injured reserve, including All Pro level DT Dexter Lawrence.
Joe Mixon - 106.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB4 on RB1 usage this month.
The Texans are 8th in projected points.
Saquon Barkley - 113.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB1 on RB8 usage this month.
Bijan Robinson
He's the RB9 on RB7 usage this month.
Chase Brown - 101.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB5 on RB4 usage this month and has been a league winner since Zack Moss had a fluky season-ending neck injury. The usage split has been 9.0 expected half PPR points with Moss to 21.2 expected without him. They just aren't using Khalil Herbert.
The Bengals are 4th in projected points.
Zach Charbonnet
He had a season-high 26.7 expected half PPR points in Week 14 and showed more speed than I remembered. He's a classic bellcow with pass-game and goal-line usage, assuming Kenneth Walker's calf injury lingers.
The Packers have allowed the 4th-most RB receiving yards.
Josh Jacobs - 90.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB3 on RB2 usage this month.
The Packers are 10th in projected points.
De'Von Achane - 87.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB6 on RB5 usage this month, coming off a season-high 27.0 expected half PPR points. Achane is The Greatest PPR Scam On Turf right now.
The Texans are 3rd-best in rushing EPA allowed since October. This will be a reception-based game. It helps that LB Azeez Al-Shaair is suspended.
Brian Robinson - 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB11 on RB21 usage this month, but Austin Ekeler (concussion) is on IR and Robinson should be fresh off the bye. The Commanders are 8th in projected points, and this is an eruption spot based on matchup.
James Conner - 91.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB19 on RB17 usage this month, coming off a season-high 18.1 expected half PPR points. The Cardinals are 6th in projected points, and rookie RB Trey Benson isn't trusted yet. Arizona is still in the playoff mix, which means more and more James Conner. It's a nice bonus to be 6-point home favorites against the Patriots.
Pass-catching RB2 Emari Demarcado went to IR.
Kyren Williams - 86.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB10 on RB19 usage this month.
The 49ers are 4th-worst in rushing EPA allowed since October and might not have EDGE1 Nick Bosa again.
Chuba Hubbard - 98.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB21 on RB6 usage this month. Since Week 8 when Bryce Young returned and has looked night-and-day on tape, Hubbard is averaging 14.8 half PPR points on 17.4 expected. That's a very real fringe RB1 baseline. Without Jonathon Brooks (ACL), there's little to worry about again. The Panthers are projected for league-average points this week (complementary), and this is an eruption spot based on matchups.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 92.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB7 on RB13 usage this month.
The Lions are 2nd in projected points, and the Bills have allowed the most receptions to RBs.
Rico Dowdle - 99.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB18 on RB20 usage this month, seeing 17.2 and 13.1 expected half PPR points over the last two weeks with Zeke getting fully benched.
This is an eruption spot against the Panthers, the league's worst run defense per EPA and fantasy points allowed.
Alvin Kamara - 112.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB22 on RB10 usage this month, but the Kendre Miller return did move the needle (negatively) last week. Kamara's expected half PPR points dropped to 13.6, and now there's a backup QB and an 18-point team total to work through. If the season is over (2nd fewest projected points this week), then it'd make sense to get Miller 6-12 looks every week.
David Montgomery - 75.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB8 on RB11 usage this month, coming off a season-high 20.1 expected HPPR.
The Lions are 2nd in projected points.
Isaac Guerendo (Questionable) - 77.5 total yards in Pick'em.
In 3 quarters of play, Guerendo scored on a solid 13.5 expected half PPR points. If fully healthy, Guerendo is a fringe RB1 in a high-scoring environment. I don't think we can guarantee he'll be fully healthy, and it always makes me nervous when a rookie doesn't practice much before the game. This is what Schefter said this morning. Hopefully we get more information during pre-game warm ups.
Aaron Jones - 79.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB17 on RB15 usage this month.
The Vikings are 7th in projected points as 7-point home favorites to the Bears, who've allowed the 3rd-most RB rushing yards.
Jonathan Taylor - 88.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB28 on RB9 usage this month.
Rachaad White
This assumes Bucky Irving (back) plays but isn't fully himself. He's the RB12 on RB22 usage this month largely with Irving in the lineup, and when he missed last week, White completely took over (14.6 expected half PPR points). In fact, White was playing more than Irving even before he left with injury.
James Cook - 66.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB13 on RB28 usage this month, coming off a season-low 4.7 expected half PPR points when the Bills hung 42 points. Well, good news is the Bills are 3rd in projected points this week.
The Lions have allowed the fewest RB carries and showed much better than expected last week with a bunch of backups.
Isiah Pacheco - 70.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's beginning to separate from Kareem Hunt, who also lost snaps to Samaje Perine. Pacheco had 10.3 expected half PPR points last week in a pretty forgettable Chiefs outing. They're 10th in projected points this week.
Tony Pollard (Questionable) - 87.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Bengals are 30th in rushing EPA since October and didn't have DT Sheldon Rankins last week.
He's the RB23 on RB18 usage this month, but in his last four games with Tyjae Spears, Pollard is averaging 8.6 half PPR points. I wonder if they lean towards the younger RB a bit more down the stretch with the Titans season fully Joever.
Rhamondre Stevenson - 67.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB34 on RB14 usage this month.
Breece Hall (Questionable)
He went DNP-DNP-full in practice with a knee injury after missing last week. That's an odd practice week but the full practice is a good sign at the very least. It'd make sense if Hall was active and didn't have his normal bellcow workload after seeing Braelon Allen and Isiah Davis run last week. We'll follow the news tomorrow morning.
Tyrone Tracy - 60.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB14 on RB16 usage this month, coming off a season-high 19.9 expected half PPR outing despite another awful Giants game. It's a dangerous game to play with the Giants projected for a pathetic 14.0 points at home, but Tracy is good and he's rarely come off the field at this point.
The Ravens have allowed the 5th-fewest RB carries and 2nd-fewest rushing yards because of game script (15-point dogs here). He'll need to win as a pass-catcher most likely. He is at least capable there.
Najee Harris - 72.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB16 on RB12 usage this month.
The Steelers are 5th-worst in projected points.
D'Andre Swift (Questionable) - 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Bears are 4th-worst in projected points, and the Vikings have allowed the 3rd-fewest RB carries.
Roschon Johnson (concussion) is out, while Swift is questionable again after DNP-DNP-limited practices.
Sincere McCormick
He took over the workload before complete garbage time, so McCormick is officially in play as a (bad) flex option. We'll see if Alexander Mattison (ankle) comes back, but the Raiders own the 1st overall pick and need to evaluate young talent. Pending free agent A-Matt is the opposite. That said, Desmond Ridder is a yikes for me and the Raiders haven't been able to run the ball with better QB play. They're 6th-worst in projected points this week.
Javonte Williams - 49.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Colts have allowed the 2nd-most RB carries and rushing yards.
Bucky Irving (Questionable)
He went DNP-DNP-limited (back), which is the same practice week as he had last week when he split reps then left the game with Icy Hot. Now the matchup is tougher, the team total is lower, and the Bucs are on the road. This is a step down in his projection.
Jaylen Warren - 49.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tank Bigsby
The Jaguars are 2nd-worst in projected points.
Nick Chubb
The Chiefs have allowed the 2nd-fewest RB carries.
Gus Edwards
Travis Etienne
Patrick Taylor
The 49ers are 5th in projected points.
Kimani Vidal
The Bucs have allowed the 2nd-most RB receptions.
Jerome Ford - 46.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kendre Miller
Braelon Allen
Isaiah Davis
Week 15 WR Rankings
Ja'Marr Chase - 86.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bengals are 4th in projected points. This is an eruption spot.
Nico Collins - 90.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Texans are 8th in projected points.
Puka Nacua - 87.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR2 on WR2 overall usage this month. He's a freak.
49ers SS Malik Mustapha is out and Nick Bosa is questionbale.
Justin Jefferson - 83.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Shoutout to regression for last week's game. The Vikings are 7th in projected points.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions are 2nd in projected points. This is an eruption spot with the Bills allowing more slot receptions than most teams, thanks to their 2-high shells and zone coverage. Bills S Taylor Rapp (DNPx2) is questionable to play.
He's the WR9 on WR21 usage this month. It's been like that all year.
Jauan Jennings - 68.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's played 3 normal games recently (no snow and no backup QB). In them, he's averaging 19.1 half PPR points on 15.5 expected points in a routinely elite efficiency offense. He's a very real option in a potential shootout with the 49ers 5th in projected points. An inconsistent ground game and the ghosting of Deebo Samuel help his cause.
Rams CB1 Cobie Durant is out.
Tyreek Hill - 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
With the Dolphins passing more, Hill has returned to WR6 on WR3 overall usage this month. They're 30th in rushing EPA.
Tee Higgins - 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bengals are 4th in projected points. This is an eruption spot.
Sometimes Ja'Marr Chase will fully take over, but he's still the WR12 on WR4 overall usage this month. Joe Burrow is publicly campaigning for him to stay.
A.J. Brown - 75.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The wheel is squeaky. There's nothing about the spreadsheets saying he should be ranked this high, but when the team is ready to force feed an elite player, I'm getting bullish.
Cooper Kupp - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
49ers SS Malik Mustapha is out and Nick Bosa is questionbale.
He's the WR8 on WR16 usage this month. Kupp still has it on tape, and Stafford is balling behind a healthier OL. This is a beautiful situation, even if Nacua has emerged as the primary and an in-motion player. Both can get home.
Courtland Sutton - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR5 on WR11 usage this month, and Bo Nix has his Post Bye Rookie Bump.
CeeDee Lamb - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR24 on WR31 usage this month, including the games where he's been visibly injured.
Brian Thomas - 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Jaguars are 2nd-worst in projected points, but that's been the case in other games when he's seen 16.6 and 16.2 expected half PPR points without Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis. Thomas was used from the slot and underneath last week, after looking like one of the league's best downfield threats the week prior. He's a super star on film. Hopefully the box score can replicate.
Drake London - 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's one of the biggest positive regression candidates, as he's just the WR34 on WR8 usage this month. This also is an eruption spot.
Davante Adams - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR7 on WR6 usage this month, and Rodgers looked the best he had all year last week in a difficult matchup.
The Jaguars are 5th-worst against fantasy WRs.
Terry McLaurin - 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Commanders are 8th in projected points, and Noah Brown (ribs/internal) is out for the season.
The Saints have multiple CBs on IR and traded Marshon Lattimore to Washington. It's a good individual matchup.
Mike Evans - 73.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot, with Sterling Shepard also questionable to play.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
This is an unsustainable rate, but it's a good sign that JSN has found a role with OC Ryan Grubb. He's averaging 18.8 half PPR points on 11.4 expected in his last 5 games. The target share with DK Metcalf is about even. He's just been more productive of late.
Jerry Jeudy - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cedric Tillman (concussion) and David Njoku (hamstring) are on pace to miss, but there is real weather concerns here. Let's say that's close to a wash in value. He's averaged 17.5 half PPR points on 12.6 expected half PPR points with King Jameis. That's WR3 on WR18 usage this month. Expect some negative regression here.
Calvin Ridley - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR27 in usage this month and is still very live for a spike week with his downfield role.
Garrett Wilson - 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He lit up Jalen Ramsey last week. Over the month, he's seen WR19 usage with very mixed results.
The Jaguars are 5th-worst against fantasy WRs.
Malik Nabers - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Giants are projected for 14.25 points this week. That's fewer points than they are in the spread (16.5-point dogs). I will make the case for Tommy DeVito being better than Drew Lock I guess. Nabers has grinded to a WR32 on WR7 usage this month. He was tackled at the damn 1-yard line last week on an impressive jump ball. His tape looked fine enough despite the hip injury.
The Ravens are 3rd-worst against fantasy WRs, ranking bottom-five in receptions, yards, and touchdowns.
DJ Moore - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR11 on WR12 usage this month.
The Bears are 4th-worst in projected points.
Ladd McConkey (Questionable)
This is an eruption spot.
The Chargers without J.K. Dobbins have abandoned the run. Over the last month removing last week, McConkey is the WR15 on WR22 usage. He's been phenomenal whenever on the field.
Adam Thielen - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's seen 16.0 and 14.8 expected half PPR points in the last two games with an emerging Bryce Young. The rest of the WRs aren't trusted, and Thielen is winning against man coverage while looking healthy. Thielen saw designed 1st-read targets and was trusted in these man coverage looks. The Panthers' league-average team total is enough to trust Thielen right now. It's been WR1 usage recently.
DK Metcalf - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's a positive regression candidate, if we believe he's at full health. He likely is. Metcalf is the WR34 in usage while losing some targets to JSN.
Jaylen Waddle - 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Things are opening up for Waddle with the Dolphins (smartly) abandoning the run. Last week's 9 targets on dropbacks with under 2.0 seconds were easily a season-high and reflect their inability to run the ball. Now Waddle quick game targets are their "run play" if you will. As you can see below, the Dolphins are passing the ball in neutral situations at an increasing rate. I like that decision.
Jordan Addison - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Vikings are 7th in projected points because they have the best play in football - the Sam Darnold deep ball, which has a 58% success rate when thrown 20+ air yards. Wild! Addison is getting 1-on-1 looks 30+ yards downfield every week because Justin Jefferson deserves more free safety attention. Sometimes he catches them (WR1 or WR2 weeks) and sometimes he doesn't (WR4 or WR5 weeks). It's a fun game to play if you can ride the ups-and-downs. There are more ups right now.
Zay Flowers - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Ravens project for the most points this week. This is an eruption spot, especially if Giants slot CB Dru Phillips (DNPx2) is out.
He's the WR28 in usage this month with Mark Andrews stepping up.
Jakobi Meyers - 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR26 on WR13 usage this month.
The Raiders are 6th-worst in projected points, and Desmond Ridder is a QB downgrade in general. That said, the Falcons are 2nd-worst in fantasy points allowed to WRs. They were just shredded by the Vikings.
Darnell Mooney - 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jameson Williams - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions are 2nd in projected points. He's the WR28 on WR35 usage this month. Boom. Bust.
Khalil Shakir - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bills are 3rd in projected points, and he's the WR27 on WR14 usage this month. The bad news is Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid's expected return. He's a better player than both right now for what it's worth.
Amari Cooper
He had his best game, by far, in last week's shootout (18.9 expected half PPR points). They get another one this week against the Lions' depleted defense. Buffalo is 3rd in projected points. On tape, Cooper has a valuable downfield role, but he is slower than he was even last year. Luckily Josh Allen is willing to throw it up. This is a boom-bust asset.
DeVonta Smith - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Keenan Allen - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bears are 4th-worst in projected points. Last week was Keenan's lowest usage (6.4 expected half PPR points) since Week 4. The emergence of Rome Odunze would be bad news for him. Truthfully, we need to stop with the Keenan option routes as a first read.
Marvin Harrison - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Cardinals are 6th in projected points, but he'll see some CB Christian Gonzalez.
He's the WR41 on WR23 usage this month and is still showing pros and cons to his game on tape. The lack of a vertical threat is hurting his production, and I'm surprised he isn't better at the catch point in traffic. There were a few nice crossing route wins, however.
Tank Dell - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Texans are 8th in projected points.
Elijah Moore
DeAndre Hopkins - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Chiefs are 10th in projected points, Browns CB2 Greg Newsome just went on IR. This is an eruption spot.
He's averaged 11.8 half PPR points on 11.5 expected in his normal games with the Chiefs.
Deebo Samuel - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The 49ers are 5th in projected points.
Josh Downs
He was a full participant on Thursday. He should avoid Pat Surtain in the slot. We'll see if Riley Moss (DNPx2) suits up.
Jayden Reed
The Packers are 10th in projected points, but they are running the ball in neutral situations at the highest rate in the NFL this month. The margins are thin with Reed largely only playing in 3-WR sets as a slot receiver.
Rome Odunze - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bears are 4th-worst in projected points, but they at least got Odunze schemed up better chances to win. He had a motion into an end zone TD, a screen, a jump ball TD in the end zone, and a nice conversion on an out route. Some of that wasn't happening under the previous play caller.
He's the WR17 in usage this month thanks to these red zone looks.
Christian Watson - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Packers are 10th in projected points.
Keon Coleman (Questionable)
The Bills are 3rd in projected points.
Xavier Worthy - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Chiefs are 10th in projected points, Browns CB2 Greg Newsome just went on IR. This is an eruption spot.
Xavier Legette - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He had the self awareness to cancel his Rod Wave concert after the dropped pass. That's a win to me. Less importantly, Legette is the WR30 in usage this month with Bryce Young playing better.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
The Saints are 2nd-worst in projected points.
Michael Pittman
Rashod Bateman (Questionable) - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Ravens project for the most points this week.
DeMario Douglas - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Quentin Johnston
Michael Wilson - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Week 15 QB Rankings
Josh Allen - Bills (26.25, +2.5) at DET
Lamar Jackson - Ravens (29.0, -15.0) at NYG
Jayden Daniels - Commanders (25.0, -7.0) at NO
Joe Burrow - Bengals (26.0, -5.0) at TEN
Jalen Hurts - Eagles (23.5, -5.0) vs. PIT
Brock Purdy - 49ers (25.75, -2.5) vs. LAR
Sam Darnold - Vikings (25.25, -7.0) vs. CHI
Kyler Murray - Cardinals (26.0, -5.5) vs. NE
Justin Herbert - Chargers (24.25, -3.0) vs. TB
Bo Nix - Broncos (24.0, -4.0) vs. IND
Jared Goff - Lions (28.75, -2.5) vs. BUF
C.J. Stroud - Texans (25.0, -3.0) vs. MIA
Anthony Richardson - Colts (20.0, +4.0) at DEN
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins (22.0, +3.0) at HOU
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs (23.0, -4.0) at CLE
Matthew Stafford - Rams (23.25, +2.5) at SF
Jordan Love - Packers (24.5, -2.5) at SEA
Geno Smith - Seahawks (22.0, +2.5) vs. GB
Baker Mayfield - Bucs (21.25, +3.0) at LAC
Drake Maye - Patriots (20.25, +5.5) at ARI
Caleb Williams - Bears (18.25, +7.0) at MIN
Bryce Young - Panthers (22.75, -2.5) vs. DAL
Kirk Cousins - Falcons (24.25, -4.5) at LV
Aaron Rodgers - Jets (21.5, -3.5) at JAX
Jameis Winston - Browns (18.5, +4.0) vs. KC
Russell Wilson - Steelers (19.0, +5.0) at PHI
Will Levis - Titans (21.0, +5.0) vs. CIN
Cooper Rush - Cowboys (20.25, +2.5) at CAR
Mac Jones - Jaguars (18.0, +3.5) vs. NYJ
Desmond Ridder - Raiders (19.75, +4.5) vs. ATL
Tommy DeVito - Giants (13.5, +15.0) vs. BAL
Jake Haener - Saints (18.0, +7.0) vs. WAS
Week 15 TE Rankings
George Kittle - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The 49ers are 5th in projected points.
Trey McBride - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Cardinals are 6th in projected points.
Brock Bowers
The Raiders are 6th-worst in projected points.
Travis Kelce - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Chiefs are 10th in projected points.
Jonnu Smith - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Sam LaPorta - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions are 2nd in projected points.
Mark Andrews - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Ravens project for the most points this week.
Hunter Henry - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Vikings are 7th in projected points.
Zach Ertz - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Commanders are 8th in projected points.
Pat Freiermuth - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Steelers are 5th-worst in projected points.
Tucker Kraft
The Packers are 10th in projected points.
Dalton Schultz - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jake Ferguson - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cade Otton
Dalton Kincaid (Questionable)
He practiced in full (knee).
The Bills are 3rd in projected points.
Stone Smartt
Juwan Johnson - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Saints are 2nd-worst in projected points.
Cole Kmet - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Isaiah Likely - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kyle Pitts
Jordan Akins
Noah Gray
Grant Calcaterra - 21.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Gesicki
Week 15 Defenses
Ravens - Tommy DeVito is a fantasy defense gift. NYG projected for 14.25 points.
Vikings - Caleb is taking sacks (because the WRs/TEs/scheme).
Eagles - The Steelers aren't the same without George Pickens. PHI DEF is great.
Commanders - Jake Haener draws the start with MVS as the top pass catcher.
Chiefs - Chris Jones against backup OL should lead to Jameis INTs/sacks.
Jets - Blindly fade Mac Jones with largely backup WRs.
Falcons - They seek their revenge on Desmond Ridder.