NFL Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:
Week 16 QB Rankings
Jalen Hurts - Eagles vs. NYG (28.25 implied points, -13.5 spread)
Josh Allen - Bills at LAC (28.25, -11.5)
Justin Fields - Bears vs. ARI (23.75, -4.0)
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs vs. LV (25.75, -10.0)
Lamar Jackson - Ravens at SF (21.0, +5.0)
Brock Purdy - 49ers vs. BAL (26.0, -5.0)
Dak Prescott - Cowboys at MIA (24.25, +1.5)
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins vs. DAL (25.75, -1.5)
Matthew Stafford - Rams vs. NO (25.0, -4.0)
Jared Goff - Lions at MIN (24.75, -3.0)
Kyler Murray - Cardinals at CHI (19.75, +4.0)
Baker Mayfield - Bucs vs. JAX (21.75, -1.0)
Geno Smith - Seahawks at TEN (22.0, -2.5)
The Titans are without FS Kevin Byard (trade), CB Kristian Fulton (IR), star DT Jeffery Simmons (ankle), DT Kyle Peko (IR), and DT Teair Tart (release) right now. This is an "Everything Funnel" with all of these departures. A full participation to start the week is all we need to trust Geno.
Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars at TB (22.25, -1.0)
Nick Mullens - Vikings vs. DET (21.5, +3.0)
Jordan Love - Packers at CAR (21.25, -5.0)
Jayden Reed (toe) and Christian Watson (hamstring) missed practice.
Joe Flacco - Browns at HOU (21.5, -2.5)
Texans could be without EDGE Will Anderson, FS Jimmie Ward, LB Blake Cashman, and CB Tavierre Thomas (IR) this week, while Flacco is without three OTs and G Joel Bitonio (DNP) up front. Coach Kevin Stefanski has let it rip with Flacco possibly because the OL can't run block due to injuries, ranking 2nd in neutral pass rate this month. Flacco may not get pushed by the Texans offense this week, however. It's a neutral matchup.
Gardner Minshew - Colts at ATL (22.0, +1.0)
No Michael Pittman (concussion) is a big loss.
Taylor Heinicke - Falcons vs. IND (23.0, -1.0)
Derek Carr - Saints at LAR (21.0, +4.0)
Jake Browning - Bengals at PIT (19.5, -2.0)
The Steelers defense is without star SS Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) and FS Damontae Kazee (suspension), but Browning will be without Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder). It's hard to imagine the yards-after-catch explosives will keep up at the rate they have. We'll see if Browning's strong poise can hold up in Pittsburgh against T.J. Watt. A 19.5-point team total suggests the results will be mixed.
Ryan Tannehill - Titans vs. SEA (19.5, +2.5)
Will Levis (ankle) is questionable.
Russell Wilson - Broncos vs. NE (20.5, -6.5)
Sam Howell - Commanders at NYJ (17.0, +3.0)
LT Charles Leno and C Tyler Larsen left with injuries left week and aren't practicing this week. That's a bad formula with Howell converting his pressures into sacks at alarming levels. The Jets are 8th in sack rate.
Bryce Young - Panthers vs. GB (16.25, +5.0)
Trevor Siemian - Jets vs. WAS (20.0, -3.0)
Zach Wilson (concussion) didn't practice Wednesday.
Case Keenum - Texans vs. CLE (18.75, +2.5)
Mason Rudolph - Steelers vs. CIN (17.5, +2.0)
This offense has the worst vibes in the league right now, but at least the Bengals defense is bad, too. It got worse after placing star DT D.J. Reader on IR this week.
Aidan O'Connell - Raiders at KC (15.75, +10.0)
Easton Stick - Chargers vs. BUF (16.0, +12.0)
Tommy DeVito - Giants at PHI (15.25, +12.0)
Bailey Zappe - Patriots at DEN (14.0, +6.5)
Week 16 RB Rankings
I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.
Christian McCaffrey - The Ravens are 5th-best against fantasy RBs, allowing just 3 rushing TDs. That is literally the only flaw here. 118.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kyren Williams - He's averaging 5.2 more expected half PPR points than any other RB, WR, or TE this month, and if Kyren hadn't fumbled twice last week, it'd be even higher. The Rams have the 6th-highest team total of the week as home favorites. 111.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Rachaad White - He's the RB5 on RB14 usage this month. 105.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Raheem Mostert- He's the RB4 on RB8 usage this month as the clear goal line back on a Dolphins team projected for the 3rd-most points (26.25). The Cowboys are 32nd in rushing success rate, while really missing DT Johnathan Hankins and LB Leighton Vander Esch (IR). I'm on higher than 69.5 total yards in Pick'em.
James Cook - He's the RB2 on RB10 usage this month with OC Joe Brady completely leaning into the ground game and RB pass game. Cook gets another beautiful matchup with the Frankenstein Chargers. Buffalo has the highest team total of the week (28.0). 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bijan Robinson - The Colts are 3rd-worst against fantasy RBs this season, and Arthur Smith is fully feeling the pressure. If we can't get Bijan going with the Falcons projected for 22.75 points at home, then what exactly are we doing here? Bijan, please don't fumble this time around. 85.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Alvin Kamara - He's the RB7 on RB6 usage this month. 83.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Isiah Pacheco - In his last 3 healthy games without Jerick McKinnon, Pacheco had 13.5, 18.9, and 19.4 expected half PPR points. If Pacheco regains the pass game role, this is an elite workload on a team projected for the 5th-most points. If this is a two-back committee like it was early in the year, Pacheco is a boom-bust RB2 in an excellent home matchup with the Raiders, who allowed 23.4 half PPR points to Pacheco just in Week 12. 92.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Breece Hall - This is not a fun ranking after what happened to the Jets QBs and OL last week, but the Jets have a respectable 20.25-point team total against the tanking Commanders defense. Since trading their star edge rushers, Washington has allowed an opposing RB to score 19.0+ half PPR points in 6-straight games. Hopefully the Jets' elimination from playoff contention doesn't work against Hall's workload because this is an eruption spot. 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jonathan Taylor (Questionable) - He's averaging 14.9 half PPR points on 15.0 expected points in his healthiest six games, which are fringe RB1/2 numbers. It's unclear how healthy Taylor and Zack Moss (shoulder) are right now, however, and the matchup is mid. The Falcons are 3rd-best against fantasy RBs because of their own ball-hog offense. No DT Grady Jarrett helps things out there.
Travis Etienne - He's the RB16 on RB7 usage this month with Trevor Lawrence, who has about a 50% chance to clear concussion protocol this week. 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ezekiel Elliott - Things aren't pretty in New England (14.0 team total), but Zeke has had 12.4, 20.7, and 16.3 expected half PPR points as the clear starter without Rhamondre Stevenson (questionable). The Broncos are a great matchup if Mondre misses again, as they were exposed yet again over the middle just last week. 101.5 total yards in Pick'em.
De'Von Achane - He's the RB12 on RB18 usage since returning from injury, and this is a great matchup for him (see: RB4 Raheem Mostert). 74.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jahmyr Gibbs - He's the RB13 on RB24 usage this month while riding the wave of game scripts. While mega explosive behind a healthy OL, this is a challenging matchup because of the Vikings' aggressive defense. Minnesota forces RBs into pass protection, resulting in the 6th-fewest fantasy points to RBs. It's possible David Montgomery's pass pro gives him more snaps than normal here, but Gibbs' trustworthiness has grown throughout the season. 72.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kenneth Walker - The Titans released DT Teair Tart and haven't had super star DT Jeffery Simmons (knee) in recent weeks, so this isn't the pass funnel we're used to. In fact, Raheem Mostert (22.5 half PPR) and Devin Singletary (19.0) just popped off against them. 77.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Chuba Hubbard - He's the RB9 on RB5 usage this month despite the Panthers only averaging 10.75 points as a team over that span. Since then, new play caller Thomas Brown has called the most run-heavy game plan in neutral situations, so it's time to take Hubbard serious as an upside RB2 option even in this horrid offense. Green Bay, 4th worst in rushing yards allowed, was picked apart over the middle last week. 86.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ty Chandler - It's over for Alexander Mattison, even if he's healthy enough to return. He is. Chandler was a walking big play on 17.7 expected half PPR points last week, and coach Kevin O'Connell said as much in his post-game conference. The Lions without DT Aliem McNeil don't scare me much.
Devin Singletary - CJ Stroud has been ruled out, so the Texans only have a 18.75-point team total against the daunting Browns. Singletary does (tentatively) have a rare workload right now after out-snapping Dameon Pierce last week, 75% to 5%. He had 21.7 expected half PPR points and nearly a walk-off TD run. 82.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Aaron Jones - Without AJ Dillon and while coming off his own injury, Jones was thrusted into 17.7 expected half PPR points last week. In fact he had 17 touches on just 29 snaps!!! The Packers simply need him right now, and this is a great matchup to cash in. Carolina is 4th-worst against fantasy RBs on the most rushing EPA. Dillon is expected to return.
Tony Pollard - He's the RB11 on RB9 usage this month. 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Joe Mixon - He's the RB6 on RB3 usage this month. 70.5 total yards in Pick'em.
David Montgomery - He's the RB20 on RB23 usage this month while running into a few rare negative game scripts. Montgomery lost a goal line TD to Gibbs last week because that happened to be Gibbs' drive. Things should even out over time. The matchup is negative in general (MIN is 6th-best vs. fantasy RBs), but Montgomery may be asked to play more snaps in general for his pass protection experience. Minnesota wants to bring pressure at outlier rates. 61.5 total yards in Pick'em.
D'Andre Swift - The Giants have allowed the 3rd-most RB rushing yards, and the Eagles are 11.5-point home favorites on the 2nd-highest team total of the week. This is a total eruption spot if he can make the most of his touches. Swift is only the RB42 on RB27 usage this month. 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Saquon Barkley - The Giants are eliminated from the playoffs, projected for the 2nd-fewest points, and stand no chance against the Eagles DL. Barkley has been the RB19 on RB22 usage this month with Tommy Cutlets stealing some of his rushing production. 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Derrick Henry - The Titans are eliminated from the playoffs and have some incentive to give more touches to rookie Tyjae Spears. 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Josh Jacobs (Questionable) - This is a place holder and about where I'd have Zamir White after he had 15.7 expected half PPR points in last week's wild blowout win. A lowly 15.75-point team total in Kansas City is not a situation worth investing into, even if the locker room vibes are high.
James Conner - In 5 games since returning from injury, Conner has averaged 13.5 expected half PPR points with major swings depending on game script. A closely projected game with the Bears bodes well for the underrated runner. The Cardinals' 20.0-point team total is higher than normal, even with the Bears playing better defense of late. 60.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Javonte Williams - He's averaging just 10.3 half PPR points despite 13.3 expected points since the Broncos' Week 9 bye. It's been a struggle in creating explosive plays, potentially after returning quickly after a very serious knee injury. New England is a brutal matchup here, as they're both 1st in rushing EPA and rushing success rate this season despite their own injuries. 77.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Austin Ekeler - The veteran is an expiring contract on an eliminated team, and he's coming off a season-low 6.7 expected half PPR points while two other backs mixed in. The Chargers' team total is at 16.0 points against the Bills, who just put clamps on the Cowboys. It's unclear how much Los Angeles wants to even play their veterans right now. 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Warren - 66.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Najee Harris - 66.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Roschon Johnson - Without D'Onta Foreman, it should be Khalil Herbert on some early downs and Roschon on most of the rest.
Jerome Ford - 63.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Gus Edwards - 46.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Antonio Gibson - Only securing 6.7 expected half PPR points in last week's start was disappointing but also not overly surprising. Gibson is an expiring contract with a rookie bulldozer behind him on the depth chart. He'll still play most passing downs but the goal line role is up for grabs on a team projected for just 17.0 points against a very strong Jets defense. 49.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Khalil Herbert
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Tyler Allgeier
Chris Rodriguez
Tyjae Spears - 45.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Chase Brown
Kenneth Gainwell
Zamir White
Zach Charbonnet - 47.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kareem Hunt
Justice Hill
Rico Dowdle
Jamaal Williams
Week 16 WR Rankings
Tyreek Hill - 104.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
A.J. Brown - He has a 3.4 yards per route run against man coverage, something the Giants roll out at top-5 levels without CBs to make it effective. This is an eruption spot against the No. 30 fantasy WR defense. I'm on higher 72.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
CeeDee Lamb - The Dolphins asked CB Jalen Ramsey to shadow Garrett Wilson last week because CB2 Xavien Howard (DNP) didn't play, so it's possible we deal with the very rare shadow. Lamb's usage in general (WR1 overall this month) and ability to slide into the slot at least helps his chances if a shadow emerges. 87.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 77.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Stefon Diggs - The Chargers are 30th against fantasy WRs, with elite WR1s going especially off against them: Tyreek Hill (39.0 half PPR), Justin Jefferson (24.4), Davante Adams (20.1), CeeDee Lamb (15.2), Amon-Ra (26.5). This is a great spot to get Diggs back in the mix after a RB-heavy approach based on matchups last week. 69.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Justin Jefferson - 80.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Deebo Samuel - 75.5 total yards in Pick'em.
DJ Moore - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Evans - This is a pass-funnel Jaguars defense, one with the potential of FS Andre Cisco and CB Tyson Campbell returning. Evans is the WR19 in usage this month with Chris Godwin playing healthier. 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashee Rice - He's the WR6 on WR8 usage this month and the Chiefs just placed Skyy Moore on IR, so the playing time is fully locked in. 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Puka Nacua - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DK Metcalf - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Garrett Wilson - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandon Aiyuk - 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Olave - 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Davante Adams - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Waddle - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Calvin Ridley - 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeAndre Hopkins - 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amari Cooper - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Drake London - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tee Higgins - Ja'Marr Chase is out. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeVonta Smith - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Courtland Sutton - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Godwin - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Nico Collins (Questionable) - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Downs - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zay Flowers - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Diontae Johnson - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Terry McLaurin - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dontayvion Wicks
Romeo Doubs
Jordan Addison - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandin Cooks - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Joshua Palmer - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Adam Thielen - 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Pickens - 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gabe Davis - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Odell Beckham - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Curtis Samuel - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Parker Washington
Noah Brown - This assumes Nico Collins (calf) is in. 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Boyd - This assumes Ja'Marr Chase is out. 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Demario Douglas - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jakobi Meyers - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonathan Mingo - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashid Shaheed - Targets take a hit with Chris Olave back. 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Elijah Moore - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Alec Pierce - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jahan Dotson - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jameson Williams - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Quentin Johnston - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darius Slayton - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darnell Mooney - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Week 16 TE Rankings
Travis Kelce - He's the TE7 on TE5 usage this month, and the tape is just 10-20% worse in his age-34 season. A home matchup with the Raiders is a nice spot to buy the "dip", however. He just had 91 yards on 7 targets against them earlier this year with a 4-TD game back in 2022. 71.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trey McBride - He's the TE1 in usage this month with Marquise Brown (heel) isn't improving. Now the Cardinals have a solid-enough 20.5-point team total against a beatable Bears defense. McBride is a total stud on tape. 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Sam LaPorta - He's the highest-scoring rookie TE in fantasy history and has more games to extend the gap. LaPorta is a freak in a plus matchup, with most offenses leaning into more pass concepts against the Vikings. 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle - Usage is always an issue when everyone is healthy (TE17 this month), and the matchup is equally problematic here with the Ravens' No. 8 fantasy TE defense in town. That said, he's still George Kittle and the Niners project for 26.0 points this week. 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Evan Engram - Trevor Lawrence is in. Zay Jones is out. That's the perfect runout. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
David Njoku - No TE is getting the schemed up touches Njoku gets in this pass-heavy offense (TE2 overall usage this month), and the Texans are 29th against fantasy TEs. This is a fine spot again, even if the Texans are unlikely to make this a shootout. 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jake Ferguson - He's the TE8 on TE6 usage this month with the Cowboys ranking 5th in neutral pass rate and heading into Miami as underdogs (rare). The Dolphins are without LB Jerome Baker (IR) and have been without S Jevon Hollard (questionable), so the matchup could be very strong with Ramsey seeing some Lamb. 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson - He's the TE6 on TE7 usage this month, and Justin Jefferson looked like himself last week. In six healthy games with Jefferson, Hockenson is averaging 9.9 half PPR points with his lone spike coming with Kirk Cousins at QB. 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cole Kmet - He's the TE9 on TE9 usage this month with Fields back in the mix, and this is their highest team total (24.0 points) of their history together. The Cardinals are 31st in passing EPA allowed. 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tucker Kraft - Waiting on Jayden Reed and Christian Watson news after each missed Wednesday's practice. Kraft has looked solid on TE16 usage this month. 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dallas Goedert - The Giants are weirdly 4th-best against fantasy TEs, possibly because they are so bad defending WRs. Since returning from injury, Goedert is the TE14 in usage. 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Isaiah Likely - Even with Fred Warner and company, it's possible for athletic TEs to produce in negative game script against the 49ers. Just ask Trey McBride last week. Likely is the TE5 on TE13 usage this month thanks to a few coverage busts. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darren Waller - In a part-time role, Waller returned to a 23% targets per route run last week. He'll have opportunities for production as massive dogs to the pass-funnel Eagles, a unit with horrific LB, S, and slot CB spine. I regrettably will have higher on 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Taysom Hill - Things are dicey again after Taysom only had 12 snaps last week despite the Saints missing Olave. New Orleans is scheming end zone targets to Jimmy Graham now (with success), and Derek Carr is looking healthy again. 23.5 rushing and receiving yards in Pick'em, but that's a very fragile projection in general.
Kyle Pitts - The Falcons' team-total of 23.0 points means someone is doing better than normal in this offense, and the Colts are just 23rd against the position. Pitts is the TE18 on TE19 usage this month. 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Kincaid - He ran just 14 routes on 21 dropbacks last week, often being subbed out for the better blocker in Dawson Knox in a suddenly more balanced offense. Kincaid is just the TE18 in usage this month. He's TD-or-bust on the highest team total of the week. 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Conklin - He's better than you think! In fact, he's the TE10 in usage this month. 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz - CJ Stroud (concussion) is out and Nico Collins (limited) is trending in the right direction. That's the worst of both worlds for the catch-and-fall veteran.
Pat Freiermuth - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tanner Hudson - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cade Otton - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Gerald Everett
Tyler Higbee - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Logan Thomas - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Juwan Johnson - 19.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonnu Smith - 21.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Noah Fant - 19.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Week 16 Fantasy Defenses For Sickos
The fantasy football defenses of Week 16 are the Eagles (vs. NYG), Chiefs (vs. LV), Browns (at HOU), Bills (vs. LAC), Jets (at WAS), Broncos (vs. NE), Packers (at CAR), Bengals (at PIT), and Seahawks (at TEN).
Underdog Fantasy "Battle Royale" DFS
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.