NFL Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:
Week 17 QB Rankings
Jalen Hurts - Eagles vs. ARI (29.25 team total, -10.5 spread)
Josh Allen - Bills vs. NE (26.75, -12.0)
Dak Prescott - Cowboys vs. DET (29.75, -6.0)
Brock Purdy - 49ers at WAS (31.25, -13.0)
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs vs. CIN (25.5, -7.0)
Lamar Jackson - Ravens vs. MIA (25.0, -3.0)
Justin Fields - Bears vs. ATL (20.5, -3.0)
Matthew Stafford - Rams at NYG (25.0, -5.5)
C.J. Stroud - Texans vs. TEN (24.5, -5.5)
Baker Mayfield - Bucs vs. NO (22.75, -3.0)
Jared Goff - Lions at DAL (24.0, +5.5)
Jordan Love - Packers at MIN (21.75, +1.0)
Kyler Murray - Cardinals at PHI (18.75, +10.5)
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins at BAL (22.0, +3.0)
No Jaylen Waddle, playing on the road, and seeing the No. 2 passing EPA defense all work against Tua.
Gardner Minshew - Colts vs. LV (23.25, -3.0)
Geno Smith - Seahawks vs. PIT (22.25, -3.5)
Derek Carr - Saints at TB (19.75, +3.0)
Tyrod Taylor - Giants vs. LAR (19.5, +6.0)
Will Levis (Questionable) - Titans at HOU (19.0, +5.5)
Jaren Hall - Vikings vs. GB (22.75, -1.5)
Joe Flacco - Browns vs. NYJ (20.75, -7.5)
An injured Amari Cooper and the No. 2 fantasy QB defense is the toughest challenge yet for Flacco.
Sam Howell - Commanders vs. SF (18.25, +13.0)
Jarrett Stidham - Broncos vs. LAC (20.5, -5.5)
Jake Browning - Bengals at KC (18.5, +7.0)
Aidan O'Connell - Raiders at IND (20.25, +3.0)
Taylor Heinicke - Falcons at CHI (17.5, +3.0)
Bryce Young - Panthers at JAX (15.5, +7.0)
Mason Rudolph - Steelers at SEA (19.25, +3.5)
Easton Stick - Chargers at DEN (17.0, +5.5)
C.J. Beathard - Jaguars vs. CAR (22.25, -6.5)
He was a DNP on Thursday with a shoulder injury. It's literally been head, shoulder, knees, and toes for Lawrence in recent weeks, and his play has really suffered. The Panthers' slow-paced offense has helped shut down fantasy QBs the entire year.
Bailey Zappe - Patriots at BUF (14.5, +12.0)
Trevor Siemian - Jets at CLE (14.5, +7.0)
Week 17 RB Rankings
I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.
Christian McCaffrey - The Commanders are top-10 in rushing yards allowed and top-8 in RB receptions allowed right now. That's very hard to do, but they are that bad without EDGE Chase Young, EDGE Montez Sweat, and LB Jamin Davis. The 49ers project for 31.25 points this week. Lol. 121.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kyren Williams - He's averaging 4.0 more expected points than any other RB this month. The usage is impossible to fade, especially against the Giants (3rd-most rushing yards allowed). 115.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jonathan Taylor - He had 16.0 expected half PPR points on 18-of-21 RB carries in his return from a thumb injury. We'll see if Zack Moss (out) joins the party this week, but this should be Taylor's backfield in a must win game for the Colts at home against the Raiders. Las Vegas has been stout recently, but they are still 9th-worst against fantasy RBs over the entire season. 99.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Rachaad White - He's the RB4 on RB5 usage this month and had 15 carries with 3 receptions in New Orleans back in Week 5. An above-average 22.75-point team total at home provides the RB1 floor that's difficult to find. White's receiving chops give him plenty of upside, too. 91.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Saquon Barkley - He's the RB12 on RB17 usage this month despite being eliminated from the NFL Playoffs. In fact, Barkley had an elite 18.4 expected half PPR points last week. His chances of a big game are enhanced by pivoting to Tyrod Taylor, something the betting markets like. The Giants' 19.5-point team total is higher than usual. The Rams are the best fantasy RB defense this year (somehow). 85.5 total yards in Pick'em.
James Cook - He's the RB2 overall on RB19 usage this month, but things weren't as straight forward last week (11.6 expected half PPR points) as they were in previous games. Fellow thicc dude Leonard Fournette handled the lone inside the 5-yard line rep and the two-minute drill, while Cook was the featured early-down player between the 20s. The Bills project for the 4th-most points of the week, but it's a difficult individual matchup for Cook. The Patriots are 1st in rushing success rate and 2nd in rushing EPA allowed this season. Cook had 13-56-0 rushing and 3-46-1 receiving in his matchup with Belichick earlier this season. 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bijan Robinson - The rookie had a season-high 22.4 expected half PPR points while being peppered with targets, and I don't see things turning back with the season on the line even if Robinson is bottom-3 in short-yardage success rate. He's just too dynamic out in space, which is the Bears weakness defensively. They've allowed 196 more receiving yards to RBs than the 2nd-worst defense. 73.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jahmyr Gibbs - The Cowboys are 31st in rushing success rate allowed without DT Johnathan Hankins (questionable), and Detroit isn't afraid to pound the rock of course. Gibbs took advantage of David Montgomery's concussion check last week after the veteran handled a bulk of the 1st and 4th quarters. Both RBs can get there, as Gibbs is the RB7 on RB20 usage this month while Montgomery is the RB18 on RB20. Gibbs gets the advantage right now in potential negative game script (6-point dogs). 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Isiah Pacheco - He surprisingly cleared concussion protocol on a short week, saving us from a potential "CEH Week". The Chiefs have the 5th-highest team total of the week. 82.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Devin Singletary - It's bounce back time. Singletary couldn't get it done with Case Keenum against the Browns. He can get it done with C.J. Stroud against the Titans, who don't have superstar DT Jeffery Simmons or DT Teair Tart. Without Simmons, Tennessee is 27th in rushing success rate allowed. Don't worry about last week's playing time either. He was only subbed out because of scoreboard. 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Alvin Kamara - The Bucs are 5th-best against fantasy RBs, and they had DT Vita Vea and LB Devin White last week. Kamara was held to a legendary PPR scamming 84 yards on 11 carries and 14 targets back in Week 4 because of Tampa's speed at LB. Kamara (the RB14 on RB12 usage this month) has been in more of a committee since the bye week, splitting some short-yardage work with Jamaal Williams. 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.
D'Andre Swift - The Cardinals are the only team to allow 400+ carries to RBs, and that trend likely continues with the Eagles sitting as 10.5-point home favorites. Swift has 17.8 and 14.7 expected half PPR points in his last two outings, including a 20-touch game in a high-scoring win last week. 83.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Breece Hall - He's coming off the 2nd-highest expected points total of any RB, WR, or TE, after the Jets opened the game with a 90% neutral pass rate. Many of those were check downs to Breece. It's impossible to overstate the difference between the Commanders (+0.06 EPA per play allowed) and Browns (-0.16), however. We need the receptions or things can regress very quickly on a short week. This is Thursday Night Football after all. 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.
De'Von Achane - Raheem Mostert (knee) was ruled out, leaving Achane and power back Jeff Wilson as the remaining top options. The Dolphins have been conservative in their Achane usage, even last week when Mostert left the game. This contest is an important one for seeding, so it's certainly possible Achane sees 15-25 touches here. It's also possible that Wilson handles a bulk of the between-tackles and short-yardage touches given his experience and physicality. The Ravens are a very challenging matchup for both. 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Zamir White - Josh Jacobs (quad) can't play again, and White has been solid on 15.7 and 10.8 expected half PPR points in his two spot starts. It's clear coach Antonio Pierce wants to establish the run, whether you know it or not. 89.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ty Chandler - Pass protection was a hinderance to a full workload with Alexander Mattison back (7.2 expected half PPR points), but the path to upside still exists this week. The Vikings have a top-10 team total while chilling at home against the clown show Packers defense. Shout out Kevin O'Connell. 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ezekiel Elliott - He's the RB13 on RB4 usage as the Patriots' starter without Rhamondre Stevenson (IR). The PPR scamming is real, as is his 83% snap rate. Even on a 14.25-point team total in Buffalo, Zeke is an RB2 in fantasy. 79.5 total yards in Pick'em.
David Montgomery - See RB7 Jahmyr Gibbs. 65.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Derrick Henry - The Big Dog has averaged 16.3 half PPR points on 14.2 expected half PPR points in his last five games without signs of being replaced by rookie Tyjae Spears. He'll get a chance at redemption against the Texans, who just shut him down to 3.0 half PPR points on 13.6 expected points. We'll see if EDGE1 Will Anderson (DNP), EDGE2 Jonathan Greenard (DNP), DT Sheldon Rankins (DNP), or DT Maliek Collins (DNP) can suit up. 66.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tony Pollard - There aren't enough AI tools being demoed on X (formerly Twitter) to understand how Pollard isn't scoring these damn TDs, but the reality is he's too small and not explosive enough post-surgery to be effective in short-yardage situations. He's bottom-3 in success rate in these spots, and they've even recently subbed him out in some pass protection snaps for a fullback or Rico Dowdle (out). The Lions happen to be 2nd-best against fantasy RBs, but that doesn't feel overly sticky with DT Aliem McNeil on IR. Pollard is the RB27 on RB14 usage this month. 73.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kenneth Walker - He's had 9.9, 10.9, and 11.0 expected half PPR points in his latest games, losing the two-minute drill and some work to Zach Charbonnet. Walker has been a stud on his touches, however, and this is a totally fine matchup. The Seahawks have a 22.25-point team total at home against the No. 20 fantasy RB defense. He's a boom-bust RB2 versus the Steelers. Both teams need wins here. 79.5 total yards in Pick'em.
James Conner - The haters don't want to admit he's 1st in yards after contact per carry this season and is coming off half PPR points totals of 22.5, 16.4, and 19.7. Conner is a monster still, even if the Cardinals are bad. A matchup with the Eagles' No. 4 fantasy RB defense is the next test, but he's overcome the Steelers, 49ers, and Bears recently. 72.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Travis Etienne - He's the RB23 on RB23 usage this month with the Jaguars offense tanking with injuries. Trevor Lawrence is out. 85.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Aaron Jones - He's the RB2 overall in usage this month, earning 17.7 and 20.2 expected half PPR points since returning from injury. Jones will see plenty of targets if Jayden Reed (limited) and Christian Watson (DNP) remained sidelined. 72.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Chuba Hubbard - He's the RB15 on RB13 usage this month, and Bryce had his first game with a positive EPA last week. Typically the Jaguars are a tougher matchup for RBs because they are a pass funnel, but this Panthers staff is last in neutral pass rate by a wide margin. I don't see them going away from Hubbard on the ground. 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Gus Edwards - He has 16.2 and 10.6 expected half PPR points in his last two games without Keaton Mitchell stealing early-down work, and since Week 4 when he was the clear starter, Gus Bus has averaged 12.1 half PPR points. Game script is slightly favorable (3.5-point favorites) at home against the Dolphins, who have been the 2nd-best rushing success rate and 4th-best rushing EPA defense since Jalen Ramsey returned. This will be a fun, likely high-scoring game. 40.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Joe Mixon - His expected points have dropped to 13.5 and 12.6 with Jake Browning regressing and Chase Brown remaining involved. A date with the Chiefs' 4th-best success rate defense isn't likely to help. 43.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Javonte Williams - He's the RB31 on RB21 usage.
Austin Ekeler - The pending free agent is in a Chargers waste land with the potential for a youth-based benching at any moment. Ekeler has 6.7 and 12.4 expected half PPR points without Justin Herbert, while winning hot hand battles with Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller. The saving grace here is the Broncos are the 2nd-worst fantasy RB defense.
Brian Robinson - He was limited in practice with a hamstring but was left off the injury report. It'll be Robinson on early downs with Antonio Gibson on passing downs again.
Najee Harris (Questionable) - 66.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Warren - 66.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jerome Ford - 64.5 total yards in Pick'em, but he continues to lose the goal line carries to Kareem Hunt.
Jeff Wilson - I've played some 2x "anytime TD" scorchers in Pick'em.
D'Onta Foreman
Tyjae Spears
Kareem Hunt - 34.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Khalil Herbert
Kenneth Gainwell
Tyler Allgeier - 33.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Antonio Gibson
Alexander Mattison
AJ Dillon
Justice Hill
Chase Brown
Roschon Johnson
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Leonard Fournette
Zach Charbonnet
Jaleel McLaughlin
Week 17 WR Rankings
CeeDee Lamb - The Lions are 25th against fantasy WRs and Lamb is the WR1 overall in usage this month. This is a layup drill spot. 97.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyreek Hill - This is a difficult matchup in Baltimore for Tua (2nd in passing EPA allowed) and Tyreek (9th against fantasy WRs), but without Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek projects for an outlier amount of touches here. If there's a unit built to slow down the Dolphins' unique ground game, it's the Ravens with their speedy LBs and physical CBs. Just ask the 49ers last week. The best game plan is feed Tyreek (duh). 93.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
A.J. Brown - The Cardinals are 32nd in passing EPA allowed and can't rush the passer. It's go time for AJB and the nearly 30-point projected Eagles. 80.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Justin Jefferson - Offenses facing the Packers have run the ball in neutral situations at the league's highest rate, but when the Vikings do pass it here, it's going to Jefferson. No T.J. Hockenson. Potentially no Jordan Addison (DNP-limited). And CB1 Jaire Alexander was suspended for going rogue on the coin toss. Jefferson has 11.1 and 13.5 expected half PPR points in his two healthy games with suspect QB play. He's delivered on both. 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Nico Collins - The underrated alpha has 14.1, 10.9, and 19.2 expected half PPR points in his last three games with C.J. Stroud. Guess which one was the game without Tank Dell? This is a potentially blowup spot against a brutal Titans defense that's missing half their starters (no exaggeration). Even Noah Brown is dealing with a lingering injury. 69.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - We don't see the Lions in projected negative game script, but when we do, we want to fire up the Sun God. He's the WR12 on WR9 usage this month with both Lions RBs seeing a bulk of work. 78.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Puka Nacua - The Giants are 28th against fantasy WRs and could be without CB1 Deonte Banks (DNP) and DT1 Dexter Lawrence (DNP). Stafford should dice them up. The rookie is the WR7 on WR6 usage this month, and on tape, I believe he's a real life top-12 NFL WR. This is very, very real production. 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - He's the WR10 on WR5 usage this month now that he's healthier. 68.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Deebo Samuel - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandon Aiyuk - 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Evans - No Saints CB1 Marshon Lattimore severely lowers the ejected risk, and you can't name 12 better WRs on the planet than Evans right now. 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashee Rice - He's the WR16 on WR8 usage this month, in one of the worst stretches of Mahomes' career. What if the Chiefs get hot against the Bengals' No. 28 passing EPA defense, one that's missing star DT D.J. Reader? The upside here is very real. 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Pittman - He was a full participant on Thursday, and he averaged 16.1 expected half PPR points in his last three healthy games. The Raiders defense is league average across the board after running hot in recent weeks. 76.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Stefon Diggs - Oh boy. It's been a complete bottoming out for Diggs this month. He's suddenly the WR66 (!!!) on WR29 usage. Perhaps the run-first identity flips here. The Patriots are the best run defense in the NFL but are 20th in passing EPA allowed. Offenses facing Belichick have opted into a more pass-heavy game plan, and Diggs has specifically tortched them. He has 7 TDs in his last 5 games against New England. 68.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Olave - He's limited with his ankle still, but this is an elite spot in a must-win game if he's able to manage it. The Bucs are 28th against fantasy WRs as a top-5 pass funnel. He's been the WR14 on WR16 usage this month. 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DJ Moore - He'll see some CB1 A.J. Terrell with FS Jesse Bates looming over top, but Moore could be without teammates Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. This will be one of the highest target and air yards shares of the week. Give me the volume and his skills versus the bad matchup. 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Davante Adams - The veteran has averaged 10.8 half PPR points on 11.9 expected half PPR points since Week 9 when run-first GOAT Antonio Pierce took over. Those are roughly WR3 numbers, and he's produced them in boom-bust fashion. The Raiders get the run-funnel Colts this week. Offenses facing Indy have run the ball at the highest rate in the NFL. 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeVonta Smith - His expected half PPR points have dropped from 12.1 without Dallas Goedert to 8.3 in the last three games with him back in the lineup. That's been a multi-year trend. That said, this is an "everyone gets home" matchup with the Cardinals' No. 32 passing EPA defense. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeAndre Hopkins - The entire Texans DL isn't practicing due to injuries, so Hopkins should have an extra half second to work downfield. He's the WR27 on WR7 usage this month as a boom-bust WR2. This is a revenge game, too. 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ja'Marr Chase (Questionable) - He's been DNP-limited in practice after missing last game with a shoulder injury. Chase hasn't been the same without Joe Burrow (duh), averaging just 8.6 expected half PPR points in his last 5 healthy games. The Bengals only project for 18.75 points against the Chiefs' top-10 defense. We're not sure how bad Chase's injury is even if he suits up.
DK Metcalf - The Steelers are still without both starting safeties and have had up-and-down CB play throughout the year. We've seen physical rookie CB1 Joey Porter Jr. shadow opposing top receivers at times this year, which would make sense in some spots here. To his credit, Porter is the CB3 in snaps per reception only trailing certified dawgs Jaylen Johnson and Jalen Ramsey. This should be a great matchup to watch. Metcalf is the WR5 on WR27 usage this month. 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Godwin - He's the WR24 on WR14 usage since his wife tilted online. That worked. This week's matchup is solid, as New Orleans has been lit up in the slot where Godwin plays 34% of his snaps. 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jayden Reed - He's been limited with toe and chest injuries, but this is a beautiful matchup if he's cleared, especially if Christian Watson (DNP) and Dontayvion Wicks (DNP) can't go. Offenses facing the Vikings pass the ball in neutral situations at the highest rate and they often get shelled underneath given Minnesota's strategy of bringing heavy pressure with blitzes (get the ball out quick) or by dropping 8 defenders into coverage (lots of checkdowns). Both play into Reed's strengths. 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Garrett Wilson - This is as bad of an environment of any player this entire season. 3rd-string QB with multiple backup linemen against the No. 2 fantasy WR defense on a short week. He's the WR34 on WR11 usage this month. 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett - He's the WR38 on WR23 usage this month, so regression potentially works in his favor. If Porter travels with Metcalf, Lockett's individual matchup is crystal clear. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Pickens - The talent is undeniable, but the volume remains concerning. Pickens hasn't eclipsed even 10.0 expected half PPR points in 9-straight games with the Steelers running the ball in neutral situations at the 4th-highest rate. 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Terry McLaurin - When Sam Howell was benched for Jacoby Brissett, the betting markets made the Commanders project for 2 more points on the week. It's a QB upgrade by every metric and eye test. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Calvin Ridley - He's the WR28 on WR3 usage this month, as his roller coaster season continues. Ridley has cleared 15.8 expected half PPR points in 4-straight games, partially because of decreased target competition, a failure to run the ball, and an inconsistent defense. The looming question here is Trevor Lawrence's (out) ability to throw the damn ball. He's been inaccurate recently and hasn't practiced this week with a right shoulder injury. 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandin Cooks - He's still a low-volume deep threat on just WR55 usage, but Cooks can still play on tape and this is a beautiful spot to take advantage. Detroit is 24th in passing EPA and 25th against fantasy WRs. S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is out and CB Cameron Sutton (DNP) is questionable. 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Noah Brown - He's the WR28 in usage and gets Stroud back in an elite matchup. Brown is an upside play for sure. 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Romeo Doubs - This assumes Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are out, while Jayden Reed plays through injury. Doubs had his best game (15.9 half PPR on 8.0 expected half PPR) since Week 1 last contest without them available. 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Adam Thielen - The veteran has settled in as the WR40 on WR25 usage this month, but there were signs of Byrce Young life last week. A designed pass funnel Jaguars defense makes things easier, too. Jacksonville is 25th against fantasy WRs. 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - The rookie is in our fantasy lives down the stretch, sitting as the WR37 on WR34 usage this month. He's been asked to play outside more, which elevates his ceiling in this offense now that big plays are easier to find (see: game winning catch vs. PHI). 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zay Flowers (Questionable) - He went DNP-DNP-limited with a calf injury, so this assumes he's not at full strength if he's able to suit up. This month without Mark Andrews, Flowers is the WR26 on WR17 usage. He'd see some of CB1 Jalen Ramsey this week if active. The Dolphins are 3rd in passing EPA, 5th in passing success rate, 4th in rushing EPA, and 2nd in rushing success rate since Week 8 when Ramsey returned. It's a mean defense for real. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Drake London - He's the WR41 on WR41 usage this month, and London will see PFF's No. 1 overall CB in snaps per reception in coverage this week. 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tee Higgins - This assumes Ja'Marr Chase (DNP-limited) can play. Higgins averaged 7.0 expected half PPR points in his last 4 games with Chase in the lineup. An 18.75-point team total also works against Higgins, even after his huge game. 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy - Courtland Sutton (concussion) is out, so it'll be Brandon Johnson and maybe Marvin Mims (hamstring) alongside Jeudy. It'll also be the first game with Jarrett Stidham, which is a 2ish point downgrade for the Broncos team total. Jeudy hasn't reached 10.0 half PPR points since Week 8 so expectations need to be held in check. 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Demario Douglas - He's had 5.8 and 11.1 expected half PPR points in one of the worst offenses since returning from injury. Douglas is one of the best PPR scams going right now if your Full Point Curious. 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Elijah Moore - Amari Cooper is out, so Moore will be the top option in an actual revenge game after busting with the Jets last year. Moore was pushed into an outside role last time he wasn't playing alongside Amari, meaning he'll see some Sauce Gardner. I don't love that for Moore. Still, not having Amari opens up targets in general. 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Odell Beckham - This assumes Zay Flowers battles through a calf injury, but Odell faces the same issue of Miami ranking top-5 in every category since Jalen Ramsey's return in Week 8. Odell is the WR50 on WR31 usage this month while playing 60ish percent of the snaps. They may not have the luxury of resting him here. 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Diontae Johnson - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jordan Addison (Questionable) - He went DNP-limited-limited but expects to play in what essentially is an elimination game. Addison gets inexperienced Jaren Hall at QB.
Curtis Samuel - Quietly, Samuel is the WR32 on WR24 usage this month. 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jakobi Meyers - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Demarcus Robinson - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gabe Davis - He's been held to under 42 yards in all 8 games against the Patriots, but the Bills at least could pass the ball more in this outing given New England's elite rushing defense. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Quentin Johnston - Keenan Allen (heel) and Joshua Palmer (concussion) haven't practiced. There's literally nobody left to compete for targets with Alex Erickson and Jalen Guyton rounding out the starting lineup. Sheesh. Johnston is the WR41 on WR53 usage this month. 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cedric Wilson - He's had 6.5, 2.7, and 8.5 expected half PPR points with Tyreek and Waddle dealing with nagging injuries. Wilson will step into big snaps this week in a pivotable game for AFC seeding. They definitely need him to ball.
Brandon Johnson - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jahan Dotson - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jameson Williams - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Downs - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Boyd - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashid Shaheed - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
K.J. Osborn
Michael Wilson - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darius Slayton - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonathan Mingo - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Justin Watson - 20.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cedric Tillman
Rashod Bateman - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DJ Chark - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeVante Parker - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Greg Dortch - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rondale Moore - 26.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Alec Pierce - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Treylon Burks - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Parker Washington
Khalil Shakir - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Marvin Mims (Questionable) - Had a hamstring setback in practice.
Week 17 TE Rankings
Travis Kelce - This has been Kelce's worst 4-game stretch (8.4 half PPR points per game) since Week 1 of 2018. The Chiefs are at least projected for the 5th-most points on the week at home against a bad and injured Cincy defense. This is a great bounce back spot for the veteran. Just don't expect the contested catch and yards after catch ability of his prime. 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trey McBride - Marquise Brown (heel) went to injured reserve. In the meantime, McBride has been the TE4 on TE3 usage this month. The Eagles' defense has been worse through the air, especially up the spine and in the slot. It's an ideal matchup in negative game script. 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle - The 49ers project for a weekly-high 31.0 points. 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
David Njoku - He's the TE2 on TE2 usage this month, as the Browns continue running the most plays per game on the highest neutral pass rate. A matchup with the Jets sets up worse against WRs (1st) compared to TEs (19th). 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Evan Engram - Without Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, Engram is suddenly the TE1 overall on TE1 overall usage this month. If Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is available, Engram has rare volume as the Jaguars' new manufactured touch player underneath. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jake Ferguson - He's the TE8 on TE5 usage this month, and the Cowboys have an absurd 29.75-point team total at home against a hit-and-miss Lions defense that's 26th in passing success rate allowed. Detroit has allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to TEs without playing many stud TEs. 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Sam LaPorta - He's the TE3 on TE11 usage this month, including his massive 3-TD game. This is a mediocre matchup against Dallas (7th vs. TEs) because the Cowboys' run defense is so bad. While Detroit should be able to score points here, they just may come on the backs of the RBs. 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dallas Goedert - It hasn't fully translated since injury, but Goedert is the TE8 in usage this month on an offense projected for 29.25 points this week. He returned to an 88% route rate last game, too. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Isaiah Likely - A home matchup with a 25.25-point team total works in Likely's favor. The Dolphins, who have LB Jerome Baker on IR, have been middle of the pack against the position with better outside CB play than they have up the middle. Likely is the TE5 on TE10 usage this month, taking advantage of a broken play for a long score. He's also a very explosive athlete in general. 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz - The Titans are an "everything funnel" due to injuries, trades, and releases on defense. Schultz is playable again with C.J. Stroud expected back after inconsistent weeks with Case Keenum. Houston has an above-average 23.25-point team total. He's been the TE10 on TE7 usage this month, largely without Tank Dell.
Kyle Pitts - Hey now! Pitts is the TE9 on TE16 usage this month. Perhaps Arthur Smith is feeling pressured to feature his former top-10 picks. On top of that, the Bears are 5th-worst against fantasy TEs. 5 different TEs have put up 10+ half PPR points against Chicago since Week 8, including a 10-104-1 game from Njoku. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gerald Everett - The Broncos refuse to put defenders over the middle of the field (bold), so they've remained the worst defense against TEs. In fact, Denver is the only defense to allow 10 TDs and one of two defenses to allow 1,000 yards to the position. That said, Everett is just the TE17 on TE9 usage this month without Justin Herbert. Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer aren't practicing.
Tucker Kraft - The final ranking will depend on Luke Musgrave (DNP), Christian Watson (DNP), Jayden Reed (limited), and Dontayvion Wicks (DNP) being available or not. Kraft has been the TE12 on TE12 usage this month with most of his teammates sidelined. The Vikings have been 10th-best against the position, partially because their pressure rates force TEs to stay into block on occasion. 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Taysom Hill - The Saints have pivoted towards more snaps from Jimmy Graham, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, and Jamaal Williams, so Taysom's usage has tanked to TE19 this month. He can always be more involved based on matchup, but the floor doesn't exist. He's had 7 and 8 touches in his last games against the Bucs.
Darren Waller - He doesn't look like himself anymore after years of soft-tissue injuries, but the Giants have a higher-than-normal 19.5-point team total against the Rams this week. Tyrod Taylor is likely better than Tommy Cutlets, too. Tyrod is the QB1 in PFF's Big Time Throw Rate for example (small sample warning). 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Kincaid - He's the TE23 in usage this month because Dawson Knox is a better blocker and the Bills are far more balanced under OC Joe Brady. Kincaid hasn't been a super star on tape either, so we're in TD-or-bust range now. Thankfully the Bills have the 4th-best team total of the week at 26.25 points. 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chigoziem Okonkwo - Don't get too excited about last week. His TD was on a trick play from Derrick Henry's arm, and Okonkwo was stuck on 70% snaps. That said, the Texans are 3rd-worst against TEs. He had a 3-36-0 line against them two weeks ago. 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Hunter Henry (Questionable) - He was limited all week with a knee injury.
Tyler Conklin - He's on the New York Jets and is playing the Cleveland Browns, but Conklin is at least the TE7 in usage this month while playing more without C.J. Uzomah. 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Logan Thomas - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Higbee - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonnu Smith - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cade Otton - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Pat Freiermuth - 21.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kylen Granson - 20.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Juwan Johnson - 19.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tanner Hudson - 19.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Noah Fant - 18.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Gesicki
Week 17 Fantasy Defenses For Sickos
The fantasy football defenses of Week 17 are the Browns (vs. NYJ), Rams (at NYG), Bills (vs. NE), 49ers (at WAS), Jaguars (vs. CAR), Texans (vs. TEN), Broncos (vs. LAC), Chiefs (vs. KC), and Bears (vs. ATL).
Underdog Fantasy "Battle Royale" DFS
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.