NFL Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
Thank you for digesting my fantasy football rankings, reading my matchup notes, and being patient with regression all year long. This can be a toxic place with a bunch of hindsight "gotchas", but everyone has been very engaging and (mostly) cordial. I truly am lucky to have your constant support, especially on YouTube where our average watch time is often over 30 minutes long. Because of it, I'll be at Underdog Fantasy for the foreseeable future building out a hopefully bigger NFL and fantasy content team as a new Director of Content. The first four years here have been super rewarding for me. I've learned a lot. And now I can keep the momentum rolling with Josh, producer Weaves, Rudman, Liz, and the rest of Underdog.
In the near future, I'll have Way Too Early 2025 Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Free Agency Predictions, and NFL Playoffs Best Ball Rankings. Then it's the NFL Draft, which we probably will cover in more detail than ever starting with being live at the NFL Combine. If that's not for you, then we'll be back in the normal fantasy football grind right after the draft with the launch of Best Ball Mania. I hope you won some leagues and are sweating out an Underdog Fantasy final this week... (Just don't expect the normal notes during the holidays from me.)
Week 16 Fantasy Football Recap Notes
Week 17 RB Rankings
Jahmyr Gibbs - 124.5 total yards in Pick'em.
That was a season high in usage (26.4 expected half PPR points) without David Montgomery.
The Lions project for the most 3rd-points of the week, and this is an EPA allowed eruption spot against the 49ers. It was interesting that the Dolphins went more run-heavy than normal against the 49ers just last week (and did so successfully).
Saquon Barkley - 126.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB11 on RB9 overall usage this month.
The Eagles project for the most 5th-points of the week, and this is an EPA allowed eruption spot against the Cowboys, who have been man handled on the ground at times.
Kyren Williams - 108.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB9 on RB7 overall usage this month.
The Rams project for the most 4th-points of the week at home against the Cardinals, who were gashed in overtime by Chuba Hubbard.
Jonathan Taylor
He's the RB1 on RB4 overall usage this month.
Now, it's the backup-DT-laden Giants in a must-win game.
Bijan Robinson - 107.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB4 on RB2 overall usage this month.
This could be a sloppy weather game. Bijan will get the rock plenty.
Chase Brown - 108.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB5 on RB5 overall usage this month.
The Bengals project for the most 6th-points of the week in a must-win game against the Broncos.
Josh Jacobs - 94.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB2 on RB1 overall usage this month, not including Week 16.
Teams don't typically run on the Vikings, but the Packers could be the exception.
Bucky Irving - 100.5 total yards in Pick'em.
It remained a committee, especially late in the game with Rachaad White favoring on passing situations, but Irving still managed a solid 13.6 expected half PPR points and made the most of them once again. This is a well oiled machine. He's the RB8 on RB11 overall usage this month.
The Bucs project for the most points of the week, and this is once again an eruption spot against the Panthers aka the worst run defense in the NFL.
Devon Achane - 100.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Is averaging 19.3 half PPR points in 11 Tua games good? He's the RB10 on RB3 overall usage this month. But now Tua is doubtful with the Dolphins potentially eliminated from the playoffs by the time they kick off.
Derrick Henry
He's the RB17 on RB15 usage this month.
The Ravens project for the most 8th-points of the week against a run-dominant Texans defense.
Tyjae Spears
Tony Pollard was ruled out, and Spears is coming off a season high in usage (15.0 expected half PPR points) in a game where Pollard left in the 4th quarter. In Pollard's 4 games this season by himself, he averaged 17.1 expected half PPR points.
James Cook - 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Bills project for the most 2nd-points of the week, who are using more committee members than any team in the NFL. That includes 3 RBs well before garbage time. Cook is the RB7 on RB27 overall usage this month, as a negative regression candidate.
Joe Mixon - 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB20 on RB13 usage this month.
The Ravens are one of the best, most physically dominant run defenses.
Aaron Jones - 87.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB16 on RB18 usage this month.
James Conner (Questionable) - 86.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He was unable to return with a knee injury last week, and now the Cardinals have been eliminated from the NFL Playoffs. That's a bad recipe for his Week 17 status. If ruled out, it's a race to see if Trey Benson (out Week 16) can play. They only had Michael Carter last week in relief, with DeeJay Dallas playing some FB and special teams.
Zach Charbonnet
This assumes Kenneth Walker is out with a new ankle injury. Despite being a Captain, Charbonnet was a distant option for the Seahawks last week after running hot in the weeks before. That's likely due to his oblique injury. The practice reports will tell the story. It's only pass-down backup Kenny McIntosh behind these two. In front of them is a porous offensive line.
Here is coach Mike MacDonald on it all:
Isaac Guerendo
He was limited all week with hamstring and foot injuries, but Guerendo is expected to play per Adam Schefter. He hasn't had a normal game yet, and neither did Patrick Taylor last week. Over that 3 game stretch, the starter has averaged 12.1 expected half PPR points. The 49ers aren't an elite offense right now, especially with LT Trent Williams, his backup, the LG, and maybe even the RT all out.
Breece Hall - 74.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Bills allow a near league-high amount of receptions to RBs. That feeds into Hall's strengths.
The Jets project for the 4th-fewest points of the week, but Hall reclaimed a big piece of the pie last week with 17.3 expected half PPR points. That was his most since Week 6.
Brian Robinson - 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Commanders project for the most 7th-points of the week, and Washington wants to use their RBs. It was just a disasterclass for B-Rob early last week, costing him any shot at favorable game script. His 4th-and-1 was stuffed. Then he fumbled twice. Not great. In fact, terrible. They only have Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez to turn to with Austin Ekeler on injured reserve still.
He's the RB23 on RB14 usage this month as a positive regression candidate.
Jerome Ford - 75.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Browns project for the 3rd-fewest points of the week, but Ford had 15.1 expected half PPR points last week with another explosive run (66 yards). D'Onta Foreman's goal-line fumble should give the Browns more incentive to give Ford that role moving forward.
J.K. Dobbins (Questionable)
His 21-day activation window was opened (knee) and he was able to get in a full practice on Friday. Albert Breer reports the Chargers are optimistic he'll play in an important game to clinch the playoffs. It's great timing for Dobbins, as Gus Edwards (ankle) is out. Dobbins had RB2 appeal behind a suspect rushing offense before his injury. He's a boom-bust start.
Tyrone Tracy (Questionable)
The Giants project for the fewest points of the week.
He's the RB19 on RB17 usage this month and played more throughout the game last week than the week prior.
Rachaad White - 63.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Bucs project for the most points of the week, so there is room for both RBs to pay off. He's the RB14 on RB19 overall usage this month.
Rico Dowdle - 77.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB15 on RB16 usage this month with multiple plus matchups sprinkled in.
The Cowboys project for the 2nd-fewest points of the week against the DL-dominant Eagles on the road.
Mike Boone
Chuba Hubbard (calf) was surprisingly placed on IR. Raheem Blackshear and Mike Boone are the top replacement options with Jonathan Brooks and Miles Sanders also injured. Since Brooks' injury, Blackshear and Boone have each played 7 snaps on offense. Blackshear has been on the active roster the entire time for special teams purposes, while Boone has a chance to leap frog him as the top early-down runner. Boone has entered the last two games on offense before Blackshear, and two prominent Panthers reporters have hinted at this being Boone's job foremost. I guess you could do worse than Boone in the flex. You can hopefully do better in the fantasy playoffs. Good luck!
Alexander Mattison - 61.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Raiders project for the 5th-fewest points of the week, but Mattison's 15.0 expected half PPR points last week cement him as the clear early-down favorite with Ameer Abdullah mixing in on passing downs aside him.
D'Andre Swift - 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB39 on RB25 usage this month.
A matchup with the Seahawks, now without their LT, works against Swift.
Rhamondre Stevenson - 60.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Patriots project for the 6th-fewest points of the week, and Stevenson has benching risk after Antonio Gibson closed out last week's game following Stevenson's 7th fumble (3rd lost).
Tank Bigsby
Since the Week 12 bye, here's what happened to the backfield. Travis Etienne led in usage in Week 13 (10.7 expected half PPR points. Then it was Bigsby (11.3). Then back to Etienne (13.9). And finally back to Bigsby last week (10.9). There is nothing hot about these hands.
Travis Etienne - 57.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Najee Harris
The matchup with the Chiefs is brutal.
Last week was the 2nd time all season that Jaylen Warren finished with more usage (11.9 expected half PPR) than Najee (5.1, which was a season low). Game script can largely explain that, but Warren was in the mix early, too. Harris is the RB24 on RB26 usage this month with his usage tailing off.
Jaylen Warren - 53.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kareem Hunt - 40.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He closed out the game with a lead and handled the lone goal line opportunity last week.
Isiah Pacheco - 52.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Antonio Gibson - 41.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ameer Abdullah - 46.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB25 on RB31 usage this month.
Raheem Blackshear
Kendre Miller
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Audric Estime
He has "earned" more opportunities, per coach Sean Payton, for what it's worth (next to nothing). The key here is if Jaleel McLaughlin will miss again. Javonte Williams isn't going anywhere on passing downs because of his pass protection. Estime could be the goal line back if that moves your needle. His 7.1 expected half PPR points don't fire me up, especially with Jaleel McLaughlin back.
Javonte Williams - 35.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB44 on RB30 usage this month.
Raheem Mostert
Week 17 WR Rankings
Ja'Marr Chase - 93.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bengals are projected for the 5th-most points, but he will see some CB Patrick Surtain. Chase moves around some and can still beat the best of the best. This is more of a "don't miss" type of game for us as fans.
Nico Collins - 91.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Puka Nacua - 85.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Rams are projected for the 3rd-most points.
Justin Jefferson - 87.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Vikings are projected for the 9th-most points.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions are projected for the 4th-most points.
Tee Higgins - 71.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bengals are projected for the 5th-most points.
Brian Thomas - 77.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Have you watched him play? There was an overthrow for a could-be long TD and he dropped an even longer could-be TD. And he still balled out in the box score.
Have you watched the Titans secondary recently? No CB1 L'Jarius Sneed, FS Quadree Diggs, LB Jack Gibbens, and others. Thomas just had 8-86-0 against them this month.
Mike Evans - 82.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bucs are projected for the most points, and TE Cade Otton is out.
Davante Adams - 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Jets are projected for the 4th-fewest points.
A.J. Brown - 68.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jalen Hurts (concussion) is out, so Kenny Pickett will start.
The Eagles are projected for the 7th-most points at home against the Cowboys, who are without CB1 Trevon Diggs. He had 5-109-0 against them earlier this year.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 72.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ladd McConkey - 71.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Only 14% of Patriots CB1 Christian Gonzalez has been in the slot.
Malik Nabers - 68.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's expected to play through his injury as usual. I haven't seen a decline in his game on tape with it.
The Giants are projected for the fewest points, but the Colts defense aren't world beaters, especially with CB1 JuJu Brents on IR. It should be Nabers vs. Kenny Moore in the slot. That's popcorn worthy.
Jauan Jennings - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
This is an ideal matchup at home, against the injured Lions, as underdogs, and potentially without their 3rd-string RB.
Courtland Sutton - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
It's a bounceback matchup against the Bengals, with the Broncos projected for an above-average 23.5 points.
Terry McLaurin - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Commanders are projected for the 8th-most points against the vulnerable Falcons.
There is weather to worry about. I moved him down a tier.
Keenan Allen - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
On non screens since Week 11, Allen has a 34% target share and a 2.1 yards per route. Let's give him some credit for winning on non-option routes now.
George Pickens - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was a full participant on Monday and gets the pass-funnel Chiefs at home.
Jordan Addison - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Vikings are projected for the 9th-most points in an important game with the Packers, who are playing better defense of late.
Jakobi Meyers - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Raiders are projected for the 5th-fewest points, but the Saints are really limping to the finish line.
Calvin Ridley - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
There is weather to worry about. I moved him down a tier.
He had a 7-59-0 receiving line on 12 targets against the Jaguars this month. They've allowed the most passing EPA this year.
Deebo Samuel - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Rams are projected for the 3rd-most points at home in a very-important game for the NFC West.
He had 4-37-0 at halftime before leaving with an injury against the Cardinals earlier this season.
Zay Flowers
He hasn't practice with a shoulder injury. Neither as Nelson Agholor (concussion).
The Ravens are projected for the 6th-most points, but Flowers will see plenty of CB Derek Stingley in coverage. It's at least notable that the Texans are missing multiple other starters in the back half including a solid FS (Pitre), SS (Ward), and LB (Al-Shaair).
Adam Thielen - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Panthers are 8-point dogs, so there should be more pass volume this time around, especially with Chuba Hubbard out. The Bucs are also really injured on defense and have been exposed at times, including against Thielen earlier this season (8-99-1 on 10 targets).
Drake London - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Falcons are dogs to the Commanders, who have CB1 Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) on the perimeter and not a whole lot else. London will play some slot and can individually beat Lattimore when lined up on him. The initial Michael Penix tape was somewhat promising.
There is weather to worry about. I moved him down a tier.
Jameson Williams - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions are projected for the 4th-most points.
DK Metcalf - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Downs - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Colts are projected for the 10th-most points, and Joe Flacco will start.
Garrett Wilson - 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Jets are projected for the 4th-fewest points against the Bills, but there is at least a little squeaky wheel.
Xavier Worthy - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Steelers CB1 Joey Porter (knee) hasn't practiced, but neither have either Chiefs OT. Right tackle Juwaan Taylor was at least limited.
D.J. Moore - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The last few matchups have been perfect for screens and underneath targets, but the Seahawks have answers on that defensively, so the Bears might operate a more normalized dropback game. Keenan Allen's target share dwarfs Moore's recently in that setting.
Marvin Harrison - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
If James Conner and Trey Benson can't go, then the Cardinals will have to pass more than normal, and it's a great secondary to go against for Harrison. There's no doubt that he's struggled on vertical routes and at the catch point this year, but here's to hoping those either convert this week or we see a plethora of breaking routes that show off his length and bend.
Jayden Reed - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Vikings are a matchup to convert screens and quick game on. That's better for Reed than the other WRs, especially if Christian Watson can't suit up.
Romeo Doubs - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jalen McMillan - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bucs are projected for the most points, and TE Cade Otton is out.
Jerry Jeudy - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Browns are projected for the 2nd-fewest points, and he'll see some CB1 Jalen Ramsey.
No David Njoku and Cedric Tillman help his case.
There is weather to worry about. I moved him down a tier.
Khalil Shakir - 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bills are projected for the 2nd-most points. This is an eruption spot on the inside with the Jets missing a LB, SS, and slot CB. Hopefully the Bills don't run too much.
There is weather to worry about. I moved him down a tier.
Darnell Mooney - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) hasn't practiced. He'd see a lot of Mooney on the outside if active.
There is weather to worry about. I moved him down a tier.
DeVonta Smith - 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Eagles are projected for the 7th-most points at home against the Cowboys, who are without CB1 Trevon Diggs. He had 2-14-0 against them earlier this year.
There is weather to worry about. I moved him down a tier.
Tyreek Hill - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
This isn't the same Hill, he'll see some CB Denzel Ward, Tua Tagovailoa is doubtful, and Hill's wrist injury may not be worthwhile to play through if the Dolphins are eliminated from playoffs.
Michael Pittman
Olamide Zaccheaus
Rome Odunze - 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashod Bateman
Marquise Brown - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeAndre Hopkins - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dontayvion Wicks
Tim Patrick
Jalen Coker
Marvin Mims
Wan'Dale Robinson
Quentin Johnston - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Parker Washington
Kayshon Boutte
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Jamison Crowder
Ray-Ray McCloud
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Week 17 QB Rankings
Josh Allen - Bills (28.25 team total, -10.0 spread) vs. NYJ
There are some weather concerns.
Lamar Jackson - Ravens (25.0, -3.5) vs. HOU
Joe Burrow - Bengals (26.25, -3.5) vs. DEN
Jayden Daniels - Commanders (25.5, -4.0) vs. ATL
Baker Mayfield - Bucs (26.75, -8.0) vs. CAR
Sam Darnold - Vikings (25.0, -1.5) vs. GB
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs (23.0, -2.5) vs. PIT
Jared Goff - Lions (27.0, -3.5) vs. SF
Bo Nix - Broncos (23.25, +3.5) vs. CIN
Jordan Love - Packers (23.5, +1.5) vs. MIN
Brock Purdy - 49ers (24.0, +3.5) vs. DET
Matthew Stafford - Rams (27.25, -6.5) vs. ARI
Justin Herbert - Chargers (23.5, -4.5) vs. NE
Geno Smith - Seahawks (23.5, -4.5) vs. CHI
Kyler Murray - Cardinals (20.75, +6.5) vs. LAR
Bryce Young - Panthers (20.25, +8.0) vs. TB
Caleb Williams - Bears (20.0, +3.5) vs. SEA
C.J. Stroud - Texans (21.5, +3.5) vs. BAL
Drake Maye - Patriots (19.0, +5.5) vs. LAC
Russell Wilson - Steelers (22.25, +2.0) vs. KC
Michael Penix - Falcons (22.0, +4.0) vs. WAS
There are some weather concerns.
Aaron Rodgers - Jets (18.5, +9.5) vs. BUF
There are some weather concerns.
Mason Rudolph - Titans (19.5, +1.5) vs. JAX
Mac Jones - Jaguars (21.0, -1.5) vs. TEN
Kenny Pickett - Eagles (22.75, -7.5) vs. DAL
Joe Flacco - Colts (23.75, -7.5) vs. NYG
Anthony Richardson (back spasms) is out.
Aidan O'Connell - Raiders (18.5, +2.5) vs. NO
Spencer Rattler - Saints (18.25, +1.5) vs. LV
Tyler Huntley - Dolphins (22.75, -6.5) vs. CLE
Dorian Thompson-Robinson - Browns (17.0, +6.5) vs. MIA
Cooper Rush - Cowboys (16.5, +10.5) vs. PHI
Drew Lock - Giants (16.5, +7.5) vs. IND
Week 17 TE Rankings
George Kittle - 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
At home, against an injured defense, and as underdogs... That's sweet for the only truly elite TE of the year.
Trey McBride - 68.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
More pass attempts if the RBs can't play could really help McBride's touchdown odds.
Brock Bowers - 68.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the TE3 on TE5 usage. Stud.
Sam LaPorta
He's the TE5 on TE3 usage. The David Montgomery and defensive injuries have to be helping.
Travis Kelce - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the TE17 on TE4 usage this month. Regression coming.
Mark Andrews - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the TE4 on TE9 usage this month. He's TD-ing more than bust-ing.
T.J. Hockenson
Chig Okonkwo
He's coming off a season-high 11.2 expected half PPR points with check-down Mason Rudolph.
Tucker Kraft
Jake Ferguson
CeeDee Lamb is out.
Jonnu Smith
He's the TE2 on TE7 usage this month, and Jaylen Waddle (knee) is unlikley to play. Tyreek isn't the same either and may not play through his wrist injury with Tua (hip) now doubtful.
Hunter Henry - 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the TE10 on TE6 usage this month with Drake Maye battling.
Dalton Schultz - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's coming off a season-high 11.5 expected half PPR points with Tank Dell going down. Diontae Johnson is unlikely to play this quickly.
Pat Freiermuth - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the TE8 on TE15 usage this month, with an uptick sans-Pickens who should return this week.
Tyler Conklin
Dalton Kincaid
He's running fewer routes than Dawson Knox over the last two games.
Zach Ertz
Juwan Johnson
Isaiah Likely
Noah Fant - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brenton Strange
Noah Gray
Kyle Pitts
Tommy Tremble
Mike Gesicki
Week 17 Fantasy Defenses
Dolphins: Did you watch DTR? Have you seen Chop Robinson?
Colts: Drew Lock Pick 6 Challenge (accepted).
Seahawks: Caleb won't have his LT and was already taking sacks.
Eagles: Bounce back spot at home against Cooper Rush.
Chargers: Good coordinator against rookie Drake Maye.
Bills: Brutal weather at home (assumption) vs. immobile Rodgers.
Chiefs: Move them up higher if George Pickens can't play.
Ravens: The Texans have protection and WR issues.
Jaguars: Hosting Mason Rudolph with a bad RT.