NFL Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
Expect Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings updates through Sunday morning when we're live on YouTube. We're posting more videos than ever on our channel, which means less writing for me this year. Instead of writing up every single player, I'll focus on the guys worth writing about. You can watch my takes on all players every week on YouTube. You guys support me 500x more on that platform than as a writer, and I have to skate to where the puck is. I hope you guys understand.
Week 2 Fantasy Football Recap Notes
Week 3 RB Rankings
Bijan Robinson - 105.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Falcons with the 3rd-best RB carry success rate and 5th-best yards before contact per carry.
Chiefs are 4th-worst in RB carry success rate allowed.
Breece Hall - 97.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jets have the 2nd-worst yards before contact per carry.
Patiots have the 5th-best average tackle depth on RB carries, but they are without LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (shoulder).
Jordan Mason - 104.5 total yards in Pick'em.
49ers are projected for 4th-most points as 7.5-point favorites.
It's an eruption spot per the efficiency chart, too. The 49ers have the 4th-best RB carry success rate, and the Rams are last in RB carry success rate allowed on the 4th-worst average tackle depth.
He's the RB8 on RB8 usage, even with last week's negative game script and difficult matchup.
Alvin Kamara - 100.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Saints are projected for 3rd-most points.
Eruption spot per the efficiency chart. The Eagles have the worst average tackle depth on RB carries. And the Saints have the 2nd-best RB carry success rate and 3rd-best yards before contact per carry. This outside zone scheme is working.
He's the RB1 on RB5 overall usage without much competition behind him.
De'Von Achane
This assumes Raheem Mostert (chest/shoulder) is out again. He had a monstrous 23.7 expected half PPR outing in Week 2 without him, seeing another 7 targets. That'll likely be the plan again with Skylar Thompson unable to sustain a normal pass game through 4 NFL games.
Saquon Barkley - 98.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB2 on RB1 overall usage.
Saints are the 3rd-best in RB carry success rate allowed.
Josh Jacobs - 89.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Packers are projected for the 4th-fewest points, a similar situation to last week when he had 15.1 expected half PPR points on monster ground-game usage. A goal-line fumble prevented him from a huge outing.
Jacobs' rush yards over expected have gone from -0.4 to +1.3, per NextGenStats. Turns out coaching and training camp matter!!! Let's get the FBI to look into this.
He's the RB19 on RB9 usage because of bad luck at the goal line. That'll regress.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 77.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Lions are projected for 2nd-most points.
He's one of the bigger positive regression candidates after starting as the RB13 on RB6 usage so far.
James Conner - 75.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's averaging 22 half PPR points in his last 7 games with Kyler Murray and OC Drew Petzing. He's the RB5 on RB12 usage this year.
Cardinals are projected for 8th-most points. This is the only offense that's consistently using pulling OL on their rushing concepts (29 attempts), which should get better with more reps.
His backup, Trey Benson, is dead last in his rate of rush yards over expected (7% omg) per Next Gen Stats. He's spending 3.5 seconds behind the line of scrimmage on average. Once again, dead last.
Lions have the 3rd-best average tackle depth on RB carries.
Jonathan Taylor - 90.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bears are the 5th-best in RB carry success rate allowed.
He only has 2 receptions and 1 inside the 5-yard line carry, leading to RB25 usage so far. That's part of the problem with playing with boom-bust Anthony Richardson.
Zach Charbonnet - 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Seahawks are 4.5-point home favorites against the Dolphins.
Seahawks have the worst yards before contact on RB carries up the middle.
James Cook - 86.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bills are projected for 5th-most points as 5.5-point home favorites.
Bills are 2nd in success rate on RB carries up the middle.
He's the RB6 on RB21 usage, so he's been running pure so far.
Kyren Williams - 93.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Rams are projected for the 7th-fewest points.
His 5.6 under expected are the worst of any RB through two weeks. He's the RB21 on RB4 usage. That'll positively regress, though the entire team is injured.
Derrick Henry - 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ravens are projected for 6th-most points.
Eruption spot per the efficiency chart. The Cowboys are 2nd-worst in RB carry success rate allowed.
Rhamondre Stevenson - 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Patriots are projected for the fewest points, but the Jets could be missing LB C.J. Mosely (questionable with a toe) and EDGE Jermaine Johnson (IR with an achilles).
They are one of the only teams majoring in a man-based run scheme, and it's working. They have the 3rd-best EPA per carry on their 35 man-based rushing attempts.
He's the RB9 on RB2 usage so far, playing in two close games. He's more at risk in negative game scripts.
Zack Moss - 68.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bengals are projected for the most points as 7.5-point home favorites. He played 82% of the Week 2 snaps and profiles as the "closer" with leads.
Bengals with the 7th-best RB carry success rate and 6th-best yards before contact per carry.
J.K. Dobbins - 72.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB4 on RB30 usage so far, as a model breaker and/or negative regression candidate. What he's done is unsustainable (obvioulsy), though Dobbins does have an elite efficiency in this Greg Roman offense dating back years. And the Chargers OL is leading to the most yards before contact per carry (2.7) right now. They are in a groove.
Chargers are projected for the 5th-fewest points.
Travis Etienne - 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
This assumes Tank Bigsby (shoulder) plays, but if not, Etienne saw 17.1 expected half PPR points in last week's contest when he wasn't splitting work.
Tony Pollard - 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
This assumes Tyjae Spears (ankle) plays in his clear backup role.
He's been the RB14 on RB14 usage so far, seeing 18.2 expected half PPR points in last week's game with Spears knicked up.
David Montgomery - 69.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Lions are projected for 2nd-most points.
Lions have the best RB carry success rate.
He's the RB11 on RB17 usage.
Rachaad White - 72.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bucs are 6.5-point home favorites vs. the Broncos.
Aaron Jones - 75.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Vikings with the 5th-best RB carry success rate and 2nd-best yards before contact per carry.
Texans have the 2nd-best average tackle depth on RB carries.
Cam Akers - 72.5 total yards in Pick'em.
This assumes Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce are out, leaving Akers on early downs with Dare Ogunbowale on passing downs.
Brian Robinson - 68.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Eruption spot per the efficiency chart. He's the RB3 in rush yards over expected per carry (+2.1) according to NextGenStats, and the Bengals are missing multiple DTs.
He's the RB12 on RB15 usage so far.
Devin Singletary - 69.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Giants are projected for the fewest points against the Browns.
Najee Harris - 63.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Steelers with the 4th-worst RB carry success rate. He's now the RB30 on RB18 usage, scoring 5.0 half PPR points under his usage-based expectation. He has to play better with Jaylen Warren on right behind him.
His 10.6 expected half PPR points with Warren healthy in Week 2 would make him the RB26 in usage, and he's been a below-average performer in general.
Chuba Hubbard - 66.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Panthers are projected for the 6th-fewest points.
Raiders are the 2nd-best in RB carry success rate allowed.
Zamir White - 72.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Raiders are 5.5-point home favorites vs. the Panthers.
Raiders with a league-low 18% success rate on RB carries, but the Panthers have allowed the 2nd-most RB rushing yards. Something has to give.
D'Andre Swift - 74.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bears with the 3rd-worst yards before contact per carry.
Colts placed star DT DeForest Buckner on IR and have already allowed the most rushing yards to RBs. EDGE Laiatu Latu (hip) also didn't practice.
Javonte Williams - 61.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Broncos are projected for the 3rd-fewest points.
Broncos with the 2nd-worst RB carry success rate on the worst yards before contact per carry (0.2). That's partially led Javonte to the 2nd-worst rush yards over expected per carry (-2.5) according to NextGenStats. It hurts that 59% of his runs have been against an 8+ defender box, by far the highest in the NFL. Come on, Sean Payton. Come on.
Carson Steele - 57.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jerome Ford - 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Being 6.5-point favorites hurts Ford's outlook as the primary pass catcher.
Browns with the 3rd-worst RB carry success rate.
Jaylen Warren - 44.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He had 7.1 expected half PPR points in his 1b role last week, equivalent to the RB37 in usage.
Gus Edwards - 45.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Austin Ekeler
Commanders are 7.5-point underdogs vs. the Bengals' two-high shell. That plays into Ekeler's strengths.
Rico Dowdle - 40.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ravens are the best in RB carry success rate allowed.
Ty Chandler - 47.5 total yards in Pick'em.
D'Onta Foreman - 49.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ezekiel Elliott - 43.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Samaje Perine - 36.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bucky Irving - 43.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tyjae Spears - 39.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tank Bigsby
Alexander Mattison
Justice Hill
Chase Brown
Antonio Gibson - 33.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Braelon Allen - 34.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jaleel McLaughlin
Tyler Allgeier
Week 3 WR Rankings
Justin Jefferson- 84.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The best WR in the NFL gets emerging stud CB1 Derek Stingley on the perimeter. The Texans don't play that much man coverage, rather opting for more two-high zone coverages in general. As we saw last week, Jefferson can beat those two. In fact, he's the craftiest double-team and deep safety manipulator I've ever seen.
CeeDee Lamb - 77.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Without DC Mike MacDonald, the Ravens have allowed the 2nd-highest success rate on targets to WRs.
Ja'Marr Chase - 80.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Chiefs doubled Chase in key spots last week, but not every team has the scheme and depth to do so.
Commanders have allowed the 3rd-highest success rate and 4th-most EPA per target to WRs. It's probably the worst secondary in the NFL over a larger sample.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 76.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cardinals have allowed the 5th-most EPA per target to WRs, particularly getting smoked by slot-based Cooper Kupp and Khalil Shakir. They've allowed the highest success rate (a not so nice 69%), too.
Nico Collins - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashee Rice - 74.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Without Isiah Pacheco, the Chiefs are likely to increase their neutral pass rate.
Falcons have allowed the 4th-lowest success rate on targets to WRs.
Brandon Aiyuk - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Major buy low candidate per the model.
It's an eruption spot per the efficiency chart.
Tyreek Hill - 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeVonta Smith - 72.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Saints have allowed -0.13 EPA per target to WRs this year, the 5th-best in the NFL.
Davante Adams - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Malik Nabers - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Browns have allowed -0.21 EPA per target to WRs this year, the 4th-best in the NFL. Nabers will see CB1 Denzel Ward on the perimeter, so Daboll better get him in the slot and as many free releases as we saw last week. That said, Nabers is good enough to go toe-to-toe with the league's best corners already.
The Giants are 3rd in WR receptions, many of them going to their super star in the making.
Chris Godwin - 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dodges CB1 Patrick Surtain by playing in the slot.
DK Metcalf - 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dolphins have allowed the 2nd-most EPA per target to WRs on the 4th-highest success rate. CB1 Jalen Ramsey isn't the same caliber player as he was 2-5 years ago in my opinion.
Chris Olave - 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Eagles have allowed the 3rd-most EPA per target to WRs, particularly not handling deep passes well (see: Jayden Reed, Darnell Mooney, etc.).
Garrett Wilson - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR31 on WR14 usage, making him a positive regression candidate. His 33% target share is in line with the best, but the Jets' slow-paced offense has hurt his production.
The Patriots are one of the few defenses willing to actually double team clear No. 1 receivers. They haven't treated Wilson that way previously, but with Rodgers, they may put CB1 Christian Gonzalez on him with some safety help on critical downs. It's a slight concern.
DJ Moore - 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Keenan Allen (heel) is out.
Colts CB1 JuJu Brents (IR) is out, as is star DT DeForest Buckner. They've allowed the most EPA per target to WRs already.
Colts defense is the most predictable, playing Cover 3 at the highest rate. This should be an easier week to prepare for. The Bears, well, they need it.
Mike Evans - 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Broncos have used Cover 0 or Cover 1 (man coverages) on 51% of their dropbacks so far, often using elite CB1 Patrick Surtain in a shadow role. Surtain rarely goes into the slot, so this should be an Evans on Surtain matchup. Get the popcorn ready. Also slightly re-set fantasy expectations for Evans.
Marvin Harrison - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Lions have played Cover 1 (man coverage) at the 2nd-highest rate (44%), rarely playing with two safeties over the top. There will be opportunities for boom-bust shot plays based on the schemes involved.
He'll face some 1st-round rookie CB Terrion Arnold.
Drake London - 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Chiefs have used a true double coverage on 9 reps this year, which is 33% of the league's total output. They granted Ja'Marr Chase that respect. I'm unsure London deserves it, too, but the Chiefs are a team willing to erase the top pass option based on scheme.
George Pickens- 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Major buy low candidate per the model.
Jameson Williams - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amari Cooper - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Major buy low candidate per the model.
Stefon Diggs - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Revenge game???
Vikings have played the most 2-high shells and bring some quick pressure with blitzes. That helps the quick-hitting WRs typically, which is Diggs' role as the primary slot WR with the lowest average depth of target.
Tank Dell - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Major buy low candidate per the model.
Zay Flowers - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dolphins have allowed the 2nd-most EPA per target to WRs on the 4th-highest success rate.
Rashid Shaheed - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Eagles have allowed the 3rd-most EPA per target to WRs, particularly not handling deep passes well (see: Jayden Reed, Darnell Mooney, etc.).
Calvin Ridley - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tee Higgins
He went limited-limited-full in practice (hamstring) and said is ready to go for Monday Night Football.
Commanders have allowed the 3rd-highest success rate and 4th-most EPA per target to WRs. It's probably the worst secondary in the NFL over a larger sample.
Brian Thomas - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Bills have allowed -0.34 EPA per target to WRs this year, the best in the NFL.
Diontae Johnson - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Major buy low candidate per the model.
Jaylen Waddle - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Pittman - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
WR31 usage is way down from last year because he's seen 0 RPO targets in a new-styled offense that features far more downfield targets on normal dropbacks.
Josh Downs (ankle) returns and could impact the WR rotation, likely at the expense of boom-bust Adonai Mitchell.
Bears secondary is amazing, allowing the 3rd-lowest success rate on targets to WRs (37%) despite already playing the Texans.
Xavier Worthy - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Falcons have allowed the 4th-lowest success rate on targets to WRs.
Terry McLaurin - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Demarcus Robinson - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
49ers have allowed the 5th-highest success rate on targets to WRs.
Jerry Jeudy - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Christian Kirk - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Bills have allowed -0.34 EPA per target to WRs this year, the best in the NFL.
Khalil Shakir - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rome Odunze
Keenan Allen (heel) is out.
Courtland Sutton - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Major buy low candidate per the model.
Bucs have allowed -0.21 EPA per target to WRs this year, the 3rd-best in the NFL. DC Todd Bowles has shut down rookie QBs many times before. This is a tough spot for Bo Nix, but there could be some garbage time production waiting.
DeAndre Hopkins - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandin Cooks - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Ravens have allowed the 2nd-highest success rate on targets to WRs.
Tyler Lockett
Darnell Mooney - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jordan Whittington
Adam Thielen - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jauan Jennings - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jayden Reed
Keon Coleman - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jakobi Meyers - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gabe Davis - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Bills have allowed -0.34 EPA per target to WRs this year, the best in the NFL.
Ladd McConkey - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Steelers have allowed -0.23 EPA per target to WRs this year, the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Justin Herbert (ankle) may be really hampered if he plays.
Quentin Johnston
Steelers have allowed -0.23 EPA per target to WRs this year, the 2nd-best in the NFL. Johnston, in particular, will see CB1 Joey Porter, who is an aggressive emerging corner. This is they type of corner that gave QJ fits as a rookie.
Josh Palmer (elbow) didn't practice all week.
Justin Herbert (ankle) may be really hampered if he plays.
Christian Watson
Romeo Doubs
TuTu Atwell
After Cooper Kupp left in the 2nd quarter last week, the Rams' routes were Robinson (10-of-11), Jordan Whittington (10), Atwell (7), and Tyler Johnson (5). Whittington was viewed as Kupp's direct handcuff as a slot option, thought Atwell did play slot receiver in previous seasons. When Atwell played late, it was at the expense of Johnson who started the game. Atwell did have a fantasy-relevant stretch last year without Kupp, so he gets my nod over Tyler Johnson here.
Greg Dortch
Alec Pierce
Wan'Dale Robinson - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Williams - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Andrei Iosivas
Tee Higgins (hamstring) is in.
Commanders have allowed the 3rd-highest success rate and 4th-most EPA per target to WRs. It's probably the worst secondary in the NFL over a larger sample.
Week 3 QB Rankings
Jalen Hurts - Eagles (23.25, +3.0) at NO
18 carries in each of his games against Dennis Allen's defense, per ESPN's Ben Solak.
Josh Allen - Bills (25.5, -5.0) vs. JAX
Lots of man coverage from the Jaguars so far, but can they do that against Allen's scrambling? Will they use a spy? Is that good for Dalton Kincaid?
Jaguars are missing CB1 Tyson Campbell.
Lamar Jackson - Ravens (24.5, -1.0) at DAL
Cowboys DT Mazi Smith (back) hasn't practiced.
Kyler Murray - Cardinals (24.25, +3.0) vs. DET
Lions LB Alex Anzalone (concussion) has been a DNP-limited participant.
Lions are using man coverage on 50% of their plays (3rd highest), potentially adding to the rushing ceiling on scrambles if the Cardinals are trailing.
Joe Burrow - Bengals (27.25, -7.5) vs. WAS
Tee Higgins (limited) has a chance to play on Monday.
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs (24.75, -3.0) at ATL
No Isiah Pacheco should put Mahomes near the top in pass attempts every week.
C.J. Stroud - Texans (24.25, -2.0) at MIN
Likely no Joe Mixon or Dameon Pierce should incentivize the Texans to pass more than usual. The Vikings' scheme also leans towards more quick-hitting passes, rather than runs.
Vikings 1st-round EDGE Dallas Turner (knee) is out.
Anthony Richardson - Colts (22.5, -1.5) vs. CHI
Michael Pittman is "pretty banged up" (back and calf) but will play. Josh Downs (ankle) is returning to provide a legit 4-WR rotation. Colts RT Braden Smith (knee) missed some practice.
Jayden Daniels - Commanders (19.75, +7.5) at CIN
Bengals DT B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankings left last week and were DNPs on Thursday.
Dak Prescott - Cowboys (23.5, +1.0) vs. BAL
Jared Goff - Lions (27.25, -3.0) at ARI
Derek Carr - Saints (26.25, -3.0) vs. PHI
Geno Smith - Seahawks (23.0, -4.5) vs. MIA
Baker Mayfield - Bucs (23.75, -6.5) vs. DEN
Deshaun Watson - Browns (22.5, -6.5) vs. NYG
OT Jack Conklin will return and OT Jedrick Wills (limited) has a chance to play.
Caleb Williams - Bears (21.0, +1.5) at IND
No DT1 DeForest Buckner or CB1 JuJu Brents. And EDGE1 Laiatu Latu (shin) hasn't practiced either. The Colts are also very predictable in their coverages, playing the most cover 3 in the NFL. That should slow the game down for a brand new offense.
Keenan Allen (DNPx2) and Rome Odunze (limitedx2) are dealing with injuries.
Brock Purdy - 49ers (25.0, -6.5) at LAR
Sam Darnold - Vikings (21.75, +2.0) vs. HOU
Jordan Addison (ankle) hasn't practiced yet. This assumes Justin Jefferson is close to 100%.
Justin Fields - Steelers (18.75, -1.5) vs. LAC
Chargers are using 2-high coverages at the 4th-highest rate so far, inviting more runs than normal in neutral situations. This should be a very run-heavy offense once again. Los Angeles also mixes up their coverages at the 4th-highest rate, something that will give Fields trouble in the dropback game.
Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars (20.0, +5.0) at BUF
They are surpisingly last in neutral pass rate (34%) and face the defense that uses 2-high shells at near full-time rates. This should be a pretty balanced offense again, especially with Evan Engram (hamstring) likely out.
Gardner Minshew - Raiders (22.5, -5.0) vs. CAR
Kirk Cousins - Falcons (21.75, +3.0) vs. KC
Offenses facing the Chiefs typically have a more run-focused game plan in neutral situations beacuse of the Chiefs' two-high shells.
Cousins went under center and looked slightly more mobile in Week 2.
Aaron Rodgers - Jets (22.5, -6.5) vs. NE
Will Levis - Titans (20.25, -2.5) vs. GB
Matthew Stafford - Rams (18.5, +6.5) vs. SF
Andy Dalton - Panthers (17.5, +5.0) at LV
Daniel Jones - Giants (16.0, +6.5) at CLE
Malik Willis - Packers (17.75, +2.5) at TEN
There's a chance Jordan Love suits up, but the Packers team total doesn't believe in it. So neither will I.
Bo Nix - Broncos (17.25, +6.5) at TB
Skylar Thompson - Dolphins (18.5, +4.5) at SEA
Justin Herbert - Chargers (17.25, +1.5) at PIT
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport believes he's been "extremely limited" in practice and the MRI revealed a "mostly clean" result. The latter might be scarier than the former.
Josh Palmer (calf) hasn't practiced either.
Jacoby Brissett - Patriots (16.5, +6.5) at NYJ
Week 3 TE Rankings
Trey McBride - 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
29% targets on a TE-focused offense, projected for the 9th-most points on the week. It's a great spot as home underdogs, too.
Travis Kelce - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
No Isiah Pacheco should mean far more passes. He needs more dropbacks because his target share has dropped to just 13% so far. That likely regresses back towards 18-22% over time. I'm buying the dip, assuming we've all fully reset expectations.
The Falcons are more beatable at LB and over the middle than they are on the perimeter and downfield because of their personnel. That's good news for Kelce.
Sam LaPorta - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The emergences of Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs have hurt his target share (10%) this season. That's likely the floor moving forward, though they also hurt his ceiling.
Lions project for the most points on the week.
Brock Bowers - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
It's been two NFL games, and Bowers is already the TE2 on TE3 overall usage.
Game script works against Bowers with the Panthers looking like an obvious run funnel.
Jake Ferguson
He went from limited-limited-full in practice and was left off the injury report. He should be close to a full-time participant.
Mark Andrews - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
9% target rate isn't going to cut it.
Kyle Pitts - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the TE7 on TE9 usage so far. He nearly had a TD on a whip route last week, but he did get lucky on a coverage bust for his Week 1 score.
The Chiefs allowed Isiah Likely to put up the only good TE score this season.
Dalton Kincaid - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Removing all screen passes, Kincaid has a 6% target share, leading to TE22 usage.
Dallas Goedert - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the TE13 on TE10 usage, only posting 6.6 expected half PPR points in Week 2 even with A.J. Brown out.
Expect a run-based game plan against the potentially vulnerable Saints run defense.
Hunter Henry - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the TE4 on TE2 usage and a 29% target share. This is an offense that will feature the position, especially with the state of the Patriots' WR room.
Jets LB C.J. Mosely being out would be a big deal. They are already more vulnerable over the middle with CB1 Sauce Gardner largely eliminating one sideline.
Colby Parkinson - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
80% routes in an offense missing their top-2 WRs.
Rams TE2 Davis Allen (back) hasn't practiced.
Isaiah Likely - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Gesicki - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Bengals projected for the 2nd-most points.
This assumes Tee Higgins is in.
Juwan Johnson
No Taysom Hill should open up more routes for Johnson, who should be fully ready (foot) for full-time snaps health wise. The Saints will also likely have to pass the ball more in more neutral game scripts than we've seen in the first outings.
Noah Fant - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
74% routes on the No. 5 neutral pass rate offense is enough to roll the dice with. The Seahawks passed far more in Week 2 (without RB Kenneth Walker). Let's see if that trend continues.
Dalton Schultz
Zach Ertz - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Pat Freiermuth - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
19% targets is fine, but the Steelers need to be in the right game script. They're 1.5-point favorites against the slow-paced Chargers.
Brenton Strange
He had 9.9 expected half PPR points as Evan Engram's direct replacement last week.
Tyler Conklin - 22.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonnu Smith
Hayden Hurst
Cole Kmet - 21.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tucker Kraft
Greg Dulcich - 20.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cade Otton - 21.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chig Okonkwo - 18.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jordan Akins
Dawson Knox
Week 3 Defenses For Sickos
My analysis on this is here. Peep the timestamps: