NFL Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint

Oct 5th 2023

Hayden Winks

Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:

Week 5 QB Rankings

1. Josh Allen - Bills vs. JAX (27.0 team total, -5.5 spread)

2. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs @ MIN (28.5, -4.0)

3. Jalen Hurts - Eagles @ LAR (27.5, -4.5)

4. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins vs. NYG (29.75, -11.0)

Opposing offenses are choosing to pass on the Giants in neutral situations at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL. It's a rebound spot for Tua and Tyreek Hill, as New York is starting two rookie CBs on the perimeter. The only primary flaw is LT Terron Armstead was on crutches last week. Thankfully the Giants are 31st in sack rate right now.

5. Lamar Jackson - Ravens @ PIT (21.25, -4.0)

Full practices from WR Rashod Bateman and more importantly LT Ronnie Stanley are big wins for Lamar, who has played well on tape in a new offense. Baltimore has been very run-heavy to date (31st in neutral pass), but a lot of them have been QB designs (NFL leading 21). The Steelers have a star EDGE in T.J. Watt, but they've had some of the worst starting CB play through 4 weeks. I'm surprised the Ravens aren't projected for more points as a team.

6. Anthony Richardson - Colts vs. TEN (20.75, +1.0)

His tape is awesome for an inexperienced rookie, and he's averaging 4.3 designed runs (not including QB sneaks) to pad his fantasy stats. The Titans defense is 3rd in rushing EPA allowed thanks to an elite DL, so Richardson will have to pass the ball more than usual (TEN: 25th in passing EPA) or run outside to pay off. The most important stat from above is the Colts' No. 1 ranking in plays per game. Their speed on offense provides a floor and ceiling.

7. Kirk Cousins - Vikings vs. KC (24.5, +4.0)

Already 6th in neutral pass rate and 7th in plays, Cousins projects for an absurd amount of pass attempts at home in likely negative game script. The Chiefs defense is underrated in general (5th in passing EPA allowed), but Cousins' OL is healthier and he has the skill talent to stay in the game. He's the QB4 in fantasy so far.

8. Matthew Stafford - Rams vs. PHI (23.0, +4.5)

Offenses facing Philly have passed the ball at the 8th-highest rate in neutral situations because their DL is so formidable. Stafford may get chain-mover Cooper Kupp back in the lineup, and he's already been the QB16 without him despite absurdly unlucky TD rate. He's 2nd in passing yards, yet 25th in passing TDs. Regression is expected. As for the matchup, the Eagles are 26th against fantasy QBs while dealing with injuries in the back seven (SCB Avonte Maddox and multiple LBs are on IR).

9. Joe Burrow - Bengals @ ARI (23.75, -3.0)

He claims he's feeling better than before, and the betting markets believe so, too. Cincy is projected for 23.75 points (9th highest) against a soft Cardinals defense. Burrow's pocket mobility is lacking and Tee Higgins (ribs) is out, but Burrow is at least not facing the Titans' DL this week. While the Cardinals have played above-expectation, they are lacking talent and continuity in the secondary. Burrow should being dicing teams slowly but surely.

10. Sam Howell - Commanders vs. CHI (25.25, -6.0)

Bears FS Eddie Jackson and CB1 Jaylon Johnson are out again, and SS Jaquan Brisker (hamstring) was added to the injury report on Wednesday. This is a prime matchup for Howell, who has been a walking sack but faces the worst sack rate defense in the NFL at home. Chicago is 29th against fantasy QBs, allowing the Commanders to have the 6th-highest team total of the week!!! 17.05 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

11. Justin Fields - Bears @ WAS (19.5, +5.5)

The Commanders secondary is vulnerable, but their DL against the Bears' backup OL is giving me pause. Chicago is back to just 19.25 projected points despite taking advantage of the Broncos' miscommunications on defense. Fields at least will run around, as did Russell Wilson (6-56-0), Josh Allen (3-46-1), and Jalen Hurts (9-34-0) against Washington. 18.05 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

12. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars @ BUF (21.5, +5.5)

Buffalo has the highest sack rate on defense without Von Miller (questionable), which has led to having the best fantasy QB defense through 4 weeks. They are without CB1 Tre'Davious White (achilles) and potentially FS Jordan Poyer (limited on Wednesday) this week at least. Lawrence is a positive regression candidate after numerous near TDs, untimely turnovers, and failed conversions, but he may need to hit home in garbage time with Buffalo playing light's out football. The Jaguars have a slightly below average projected team total.

13. Jordan Love - Packers @ LV (23.0, -1.0)

He's with a full skill group for the first time all year (pending Aaron Jones news), but his TD-to-yardage ratio will negatively regress after running hot early.

14. Brock Purdy - 49ers vs. DAL (24.25, -3.5)

San Francisco's team total is down about a touchdown from last week in a much harder matchup. Just as important, offenses facing the Cowboys have ran the ball in neutral situations at the highest rate in the NFL, so this could be a lower volume game for Purdy, who doesn't run much himself. That said, Dallas is missing CB1 Trevon Diggs (ACL) right now and hasn't faced a difficult schedule to date.

15. Jared Goff - Lions vs. CAR (26.75, -9.5)

The team total is elite, but Panthers' opposing offenses have ran in neutral situations at the 8th-highest rate and the Lions' offense is okay with a very balanced attack. Goff's downfield odds are increased with the return of Jameson Williams, though Amon-Ra St. Brown (doubtful) and Jahmyr Gibbs (highly questionable) are suddenly injured. The Panthers defense is equally injured. 16.55 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

16. C.J. Stroud - Texans @ ATL (19.75, +2.0)

Already a stud, Stroud gets his starting LT and RT back in this game. Watch the video below to see how tied together the play-calling, WR skill sets, and Stroud's accuracy are. This offense is legit fun. 16.55 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

17. Joshua Dobbs - Cardinals vs. CIN (20.75, +3.0)

18. Dak Prescott - Cowboys @ SF (20.75, +3.5)

19. Russell Wilson - Broncos vs. NYJ (22.5, -1.5)

20. Daniel Jones - Giants @ MIA (19.0, +11.0)

He has no chance unless LT Andrew Thomas and C John Michael-Schmitz are healthy. They're not.

21. Mac Jones - Patriots vs. NO (20.5, -1.0)

22. Ryan Tannehill - Titans @ IND (21.75, -1.0)

23. Jimmy Garoppolo - Raiders vs. GB (22.0, +1.0)

24. Zach Wilson - Jets @ DEN (21.0, +1.5)

See WR18 Garrett Wilson.

25. Bryce Young - Panthers @ DET (17.25, +10.0)

26. Derek Carr - Saints @ NE (19.5, +1.0)

He's limited in practice again and couldn't function last week.

27. Desmond Ridder - Falcons vs. HOU (21.75, -2.0)

We're in the "Got benched" zone.

28. Kenny Pickett - Steelers vs. BAL (17.0, +4.0)

Week 5 RB Rankings

I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.

  1. Christian McCaffrey - Good at football, though the Cowboys are the best defense against fantasy RBs so far.

  2. David Montgomery - 9.5-point home favorites against the 4th-worst fantasy RB defense, and he's been the RB5 on RB5 usage even with Jahmyr Gibbs (doubtful) in.

  3. Bijan Robinson - The RB10 on RB15 usage, but the Falcons project for an average amount of points (21.75) while facing the Texans. There is not a true RB2 overall in fantasy this week in my opinion. There's a massive tier break after CMC.

  4. Josh Jacobs - The RB6 in usage, and he should be rounding into form after missing all training camp. Check-down O'Connell aided in a season-high 9 receptions, which is fine with us if Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) misses again. Green Bay has been bad against the run for a decade and are 5th-worst against fantasy RBs this year.

  5. Derrick Henry - 21.75-point team total is higher than usual this week. Henry finally had a vintage broken-tackle run last week, and it's possible 1st-round OG Peter Skoronski (appendix) returns this week. 14.35 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  6. Tony Pollard - I promise he's a regression candidate, but the odds are worse this week with Dallas projected for just 20.75 points in San Francisco. The 49ers have allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs this season. 12.75 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  7. Brian Robinson - 5.5-point home favorites with a very strong 25.0-point team total against the lowly Bears, who have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs so far. He's one of the most game script-dependent players in fantasy, as he's had 14.8 expected half PPR points in his three non-blowout losses. Game script is tilted his way here.

  8. Joe Mixon - Cincy is dead last in RB fantasy usage, partially because they can't run under center but mostly because they're dead last in touchdowns. Mixon's playing time is fine and the matchup against the visiting Cardinals is nice (they're 1-of-3 defenses who've allowed 8+ RB TDs), but Joe Burrow is still fighting injury, this time without Tee Higgins. The betting markets have the Bengals projected for nearly 24 points, however. Mixon's 12.4 expected fantasy points this year are in line with this ranking. 14.55 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  9. Alvin Kamara - 75% snaps and RB3 overall usage as a PPR scammer in his debut. Playing in New England is never fun for fantasy, but the Patriots are quite injured; EDGE1 Matthew Judon, CB1 Christian Gonzalez, NCB Marcus Jones, CB2 Jack Jones, DT Daniel Ekuale, and others are on Injured Reserve. 14.35 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  10. Kyren Williams - RB6 on RB4 usage, but the Eagles are allowing just 3.0 yards per carry to RBs (3rd-best). Williams will need his full-time snaps to translate into check-downs and goal-line carries (again). It's not helping that he was DNP-limited-full (hip) in practice this week, while Cooper Kupp gets reinserted into the lineup. 13.05 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  11. D'Andre Swift - The RB13 on RB13 fantasy usage. 12.55 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  12. De'Von Achane - Detangling Achane's increased 2nd-half usage is difficult. Was it his effectiveness earning more snaps while Raheem Mostert had two fumbles? Or was it the Dolphins trailing in the game, which allowed the rookie to get more run? Either way, the Dolphins are 3rd in RB fantasy usage so far and are the most efficient running team on top of it (because they don't run the ball up the middle). Miami's 30-point team total suggests both Achane and Mostert are high-upside fantasy starters, even if Mostert had a season-low 9.6 expected half PPR points last week. The Giants defense has allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to RBs so far.

  13. Raheem Mostert - See RB11 De'Von Achane.

  14. Isiah Pacheco - The RB14 on RB12 usage. Kansas City is 4-point road favorites against the Vikings, who've been crowding the OL with heavy pressure. It's an up-and-down individual matchup for Pacheco, who has nearly eliminated CEH from the Chiefs' rotation. 12.05 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  15. Travis Etienne - The RB20 on RB16 usage, and the Jaguars OL is creating no holes in the ground game. In fact, Jacksonville is 28th in rushing success rate. Etienne needs the big play to hit as an upside RB2, especially if rookie Tank Bigsby vultures at the goal line like he did the last time they were deep in the red zone. Playing in Buffalo is neutral, as game script works against Etienne but they've allowed the highest yards per carry (6.0) to RBs this year.

  16. James Cook - He had multiple inside the 5-yard line tries last week and converted one of them for a score. The context includes Latavius Murray's big run right before those touches, but either way, there is now an easier avenue to RB1 games. Cook is the RB15 on RB20 usage and projects well while hosting the Jaguars as 5.0-point favorites. The Bills' investment into the ground game makes them a well-oiled machine on offense. It's a joy to watch.

  17. Breece Hall - Jets coach Robert Salah said, "There is no pitch count with him anymore." This is in-line with offseason expectations after taking a month to get back into game shape, and I'm making a move way up the rankings to follow. Hall's reeled off some nice runs, but his per-carry efficiency has been a work in progress due to injury and the Jets' iffy offense. Out of 51 RBs, Hall ranks 39th in PFF run grade and 22nd in forced missed tackles. He's still really fast in the open field, however, and the matchup is nice. The Broncos defense has been historically bad through four weeks, allowing 10 more RB half PPR points per game than the 2nd-worst team against RBs. Is all that enough to overcome New York's No. 30 ranking in RB fantasy usage? We shall see. 81.5 total yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  18. James Conner - The RB17 on RB25 usage. He averaged 13.8 expected half PPR points in close games in Weeks 1-3 before last week's 7.3. The Cardinals are only 3.0-point dogs to the injured Bengals. 10.85 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  19. Dameon Pierce - The RB14 in usage potentially gets back both OTs and a C this week, while CJ Stroud continues to improve. A 2-point dog game script against the Falcons helps Pierce's odds of an RB2 finish. His tape last week was fun:

  20. Alexander Mattison - 69% snaps with Cam Akers last week with a 2-for-1 drive rotation, and Mattison's leisurely style can't afford losing many reps. Game script works against Mattison against the Chiefs. 12.05 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  21. Miles Sanders - Last week's limited practice reps signaled that his groin injury would limit him, and it did. This week, Sanders was limited-limited-full in practice, so he's in a better spot. Expect check-downs to Sanders (RB2 in targets) as 9.5-point road dogs, though the Lions have allowed 2.9 YPC to RBs so far. 64.5 total yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  22. Aaron Jones (Questionable) - He was on a snap count last week and went limited-limited-DNP in practice this week thanks to a lingering hamstring injury. Jones is also running behind a beaten-up OL. The Raiders are a nice matchup if he's actually healthy for Monday Night Football. My expectations are in check until we're back to full practices. He had 12.7 expected half PPR points in Week 1, his only healthy game this season.

  23. Rhamondre Stevenson - The RB26 on RB22 usage. NO is tough. And he was limited all week in practice with a thigh injury. That'd explain his suddenly bad advanced metrics. 10.65 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  24. Jonathan Taylor - With a new deal in place, both Taylor and the Colts are incentivized to play as normal. The Athletic's Dianna Russini reports they will scale up Taylor's workload over the next month as he just returned to practice this week. He's live to see around 15 touches (about 70% of his normal workload) while losing some snaps to Zack Moss, who has been productive in Taylor's absence. This week's matchup with the Titans is fierce, so realistic expectations are in order here. This is a boom-bust proposition. 44.5 rushing yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  25. Khalil Herbert - The RB24 on RB32 usage. Chicago is back to being 5.5-point dogs against a loaded Commanders defensive line.

  26. Matt Breida - Saquon Barkley is not expected to play. LT Andrew Thomas and two other offensive linemen remain out, which means the offense is cooked. The Giants' starting RB has averaged 11.8 expected half PPR points this year, with those numbers imploding without Thomas in the lineup. 59.5 total yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  27. Gus Edwards - Coming off a season-high 10.5 expected half PPR points with Justice Hill (toe) not playing his usual reps and with Baltimore controlling that game. The Ravens are only 4-point favorites against the Steelers (I can't believe that!) this week. Hill was limited-limited-full in practice week and could eat into Edwards workload again.

  28. Najee Harris - The RB38 on RB34 usage. 8.25 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  29. Jaleel McLaughlin - The UDFA rookie stepped into the early-down Javonte Williams role last week, while Samaje Perine stayed in his pass protection role. This early-down role has averaged 9.8 expected half PPR points per game, and this week could be a slugfest against the slow-paced Jets.

  30. Tyler Allgeier - It's almost a requirement for Allgeier to have a lead, but at least the Falcons are 2-point favorites against the Texans here. He's averaging 13.5 expected half PPR points in two wins and 6.4 in two losses because Allgeier is the downhill grinder. He's the RB28 on RB31 usage combined.

  31. Chuba Hubbard - See RB17 Miles Sanders.

  32. Jaylen Warren - The RB31 on RB33 usage.

  33. Samaje Perine - See RB31 Jaleel McLaughlin.

  34. Zack Moss - See RB19 Jonathan Taylor.

  35. Latavius Murray

  36. Tyjae Spears

  37. Kenneth Gainwell

  38. Jerick McKinnon

  39. AJ Dillon - See RB25 Aaron Jones.

  40. Justice Hill - See RB26 Gus Edwards.

  41. Ezekiel Elliott

  42. Cam Akers

  43. Tank Bigsby

  44. Roschon Johnson

  45. Matt Breida

  46. Devin Singletary

  47. Rico Dowdle

  48. Antonio Gibson

  49. Dalvin Cook

Week 5 WR Rankings

  1. Tyreek Hill - The Giants start 2 rookie CBs.

  2. Justin Jefferson - Chasing points against KC sounds fun.

  3. Stefon Diggs - The WR4 on WR8 usage plays at home.

  4. A.J. Brown - The Rams are starting a 2022 6th round CB on the perimeter.

  5. Ja'Marr Chase - This assumes Tee Higgins is out. As bad as they've played on offense, the betting markets project the Bengals for a solid 23.75 points against the Cardinals, who are starting a rookie CB on the outside. Chase is 6th in targets with Cincy ranking 1st in neutral pass rate.

  6. CeeDee Lamb - He had a 10-117-1 line in a playoff last to San Francisco back in January, and offenses facing the Niners have the highest neutral pass rate. Lamb has been fazed out of the spotlight due to game script multiple times this year. That shouldn't happen here.

  7. Cooper Kupp - There's plenty of room for both Kupp and Puka Nacua to operate here, as the Rams are 2nd in WR fantasy usage so far and Stafford has had multiple starting fantasy WRs at the same time. Kupp easily could be a top-3 fantasy WR from the jump. He had two full practices before this report surfaced:

  8. Puka Nacua - See WR9 Cooper Kupp and watch this video:

  9. Davante Adams (Questionable) - His usage is up (15.1 to 17.8 expected half PPR points), and his efficiency should rebound with Jimmy Garoppolo expected back. A revenge game against CB1 Jaire Alexander should be a fun watch.

  10. DeVonta Smith - Efficient as always, Smith's only concern is his WR39 fantasy usage, which is down compared to last season. The Eagles have WR-to-CB advantages on the perimeter this week in a relatively high-scoring environment in Los Angeles. This is a spike week matchup. 62.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  11. Jaylen Waddle - There's not a floor here with his per-game usage sitting at WR50 right now, but the Giants blitz like crazy in an attempt to hide their two starting rookie CBs. Offenses have seen the weakness, opting to pass in neutral situations at the 4th-highest rate agains the New York defense. That's a recipe for a Waddle spike week with the Dolphins projected for the most points on the week (29.75). 61.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  12. Calvin Ridley - A predictable shadow matchup with A.J. Terrell hurt Ridley last week, but things look better with Buffalo missing CB1 Tre'Davious White and potentially FS Jordan Poyer. Regressing his 4 drops and near TDs also help Ridley's bounce-back odds in expected garbage time. Offenses facing the Bills have passed at the 3rd-highest rate in neutral game scripts. There should be enough targets to go around for Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram, assuming Zay Jones (limited x2) needs another week to get right. 55.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  13. Brandon Aiyuk - His deep-ball catch rate of 90% is completely unsustainable, as the NFL average is at 48%, but the scheme works wonders and he's taken a legit leap on tape. Deebo Samuel is playing through multiple injuries right now, too. Even without CB1 Trevon Diggs, the Cowboys are a tough matchup. CB2 Stephon Gilmore (45% catch rate allowed) is no joke.

  14. Deebo Samuel - He's reportedly not at 100% right now (limited-limited-full), which may explain last week's bust. Aiyuk returning hurts Deebo's target share, and the Cowboys defense is allowing the highest neutral run rate in neutral situations this week. It's a down matchup for the big play stud.

  15. Michael Pittman - Was last week's outlier neutral pass rate the start of a trend? That's the difficult part to parse through. On tape, Pittman is being schemed up underneath. His targets should be fine this week against the beatable Titans' secondary. Offenses facing Tennessee have the 3rd-highest neutral pass rate. 59.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  16. Chris Olave - No CB1 Chrisitan Gonzalez and EDGE1 Matthew Judon helps Olave's chances in New England, but it was clear that Derek Carr's arm strength was heavily impacted last week and he's still limited in practice this week. Olave is the WR30 on WR13 usage so far. It's not a particularly great spot in a low-scoring environment, as we wait for more data on if Olave's targets take a beating with Alvin Kamara back in the mix. 62.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  17. Nico Collins - He's playing well as you'll see below, but things aren't as easy this week based on the matchup. Falcons CB1 A.J. Terrell slowed down Calvin Ridley last week and has FS1 Jessie Bates playing great ball behind him. Atlanta is more exposed in the slot. 58.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  18. Terry McLaurin - He's coming off a season-high 14.4 expected half PPR points in a comeback overtime loss, but it could be a sign that he's fully healthy now. McLaurin also gets a banged-up Bears secondary that's without CB1, FS1, and potentially SS1. The Commanders' increased team total (25.25) helps F1's touchdown odds. 11.25 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  19. DJ Moore - He's running hot (and playing well) so far, checking in at WR15 on WR44 usage. The Commanders are starting a rookie CB on the perimeter this week and are 30th against fantasy WRs, allowing Brandon Johnson (2-66-2), Marvin Mims (2-113-1), Stefon Diggs (8-111-0), and A.J. Brown (9-175-2) to go off on downfield targets. 10.25 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  20. Garrett Wilson - He's up to the WR18 in usage after a season-high 16.8 expected half PPR points last week. New York upped their neutral pass rate last week, and Zach Wilson didn't have a meltdown. With the Broncos allowing the most fantasy points to WRs, Wilson can be treated with some respect in Week 5. CB1 Patrick Surtain could shadow him, however. 57.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  21. Marquise Brown - The WR20 on WR20 usage, thanks to better-than-expected play from Josh Dobbs. Arizona is projected for 20.5 points this week, which is more than normal. Cincy at home is a neutral matchup for Hollywood. 52.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  22. Jakobi Meyers - His matchup gets easier if CB1 Jaire Alexander follows Adams around the field. The Raiders' 23.0-point team total suggests Meyers has a rebound opportunity (and that Jimmy Garoppolo will return).

  23. Christian Kirk - The WR27 on WR27 usage. He's a full-time player without Zay Jones (questionable). More on this later. 55.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  24. Adam Thielen - The WR12 on WR26 usage, but he's been worse with Bryce Young and Jonathan Mingo. The Lions' No. 14 fantasy WR defense is mediocre, especially if SCB Brian Branch is out. 51.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  25. DeAndre Hopkins - The primary positive is Hopkins' WR27 fantasy usage and the absence of Treylon Burks. The Colts have also allowed 100+ yards and TD games to 3 different WRs so far, after losing multiple key secondary starters this offseason. 47.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  26. Josh Reynolds - No Amon-Ra St. Brown (doubtful) and a full practice on Friday for Reynolds means we're in the upside flex zone. The Lions are projected for nearly 27 points this week. It has to go to someone. Expect Reynolds, slot replacement Kalif Raymond, deep threat Jameson Williams (reportedly 20 snap count), and the ghost of Marvin Jones to rotate. 45.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  27. George Pickens - The 28% target share without Diontae Johnson is the primary thing to hang your hat on, especially with Pat Freiermuth likely out. The Steelers just happen to have the lowest implied team total of the week against the well-coached Ravens, who are getting stud CB1 Marlon Humphrey back. 45.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  28. Gabe Davis - He's averaging over 11.0 half PPR points when not on the injury report (ankle) dating back to 2022. 39.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  29. Jerry Jeudy - While playing in the slot, Jeudy is unlikely to see that much CB1 Sauce Gardner. 48.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  30. Jordan Addison - 45.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  31. Tyler Boyd - 45.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  32. Jahan Dotson - A tough start to the year has equated to WR41 usage, but Dotson is a good player, is coming off a season-high in usage, and faces an injured Bears secondary with an implied team total that sits 6th-highest on the week. 42.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  33. Michael Thomas - 51.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  34. Zay Flowers - As you see repeatedly in the Nico Collins breakdown from above, the Steelers CB play right now is horrendous, which has led Pittsburgh to being 2nd worst against fantasy WRs. Flowers' usage is down with Mark Andrews in the lineup, but his big-play potential is increased this week even with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham back in the lineup. 44.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  35. Tank Dell - 40.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  36. Courtland Sutton - A matchup with CB1 Sauce Gardner and the 2nd-best WR defense awaits, but at least Sutton has held off Jeudy in terms of usage. Sutton is the WR27 so far as the red zone dominator. Jeudy is 47th, while operating as a vertical slot player. 45.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  37. Romeo Doubs - 48.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  38. Drake London - 41.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  39. Christian Watson - He's still limited in practice. 38.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  40. Kalif Raymond - See WR27 Josh Reynolds.

  41. Robert Woods - The Falcons are worst in the slot, where CB1 A.J. Terrell doesn't live. 41.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  42. Rashee Rice - His routes are up, and he just may be the best receiver on the team. Minnesota has allowed the 3rd-most points to fantasy WRs, too.

  43. Brandin Cooks - The Niners allow the highest neutral pass rate on defense. 37.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  44. Tutu Atwell - This assumes Cooper Kupp plays.

  45. Michael Wilson - 37.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  46. DeVante Parker - 37.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  47. K.J. Osborn - He's still ahead of Jordan Addison. 33.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  48. Jayden Reed - His routes and targets are expected to go down in particular with Christian Watson back in the starting lineup. 36.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  49. Curtis Samuel - 32.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  50. Jameson Williams - See WR27 Josh Reynolds.

  51. Wan'Dale Robinson - 32.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  52. Kendrick Bourne - 32.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  53. Rashid Shaheed - 28.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  54. Michael Gallup

  55. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - Treylon Burks (knee) is out.

  56. Jonathan Mingo

  57. Josh Downs

  58. Darius Slayton - 30.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  59. Kadarius Toney

  60. Skyy Moore

  61. Justin Watson

  62. Marquez Valdes-Scantling

  63. Rashod Bateman - He's fully practicing.

  64. Darnell Mooney - 30.5 receiving yards in the Pick'em lobby.

  65. Marvin Mims

  66. Alec Pierce

  67. Rondale Moore

  68. Allen Lazard

  69. Allen Robinson

  70. DJ Chark

Week 5 TE Rankings

  1. Travis Kelce - While dealing with an injury, Kelce's expected half PPR points have dropped from 13.9 to 12.4 this year. Is that a small sample, injury, age, or a lack of weapons around him?

  2. Mark Andrews - YAC ability was fully back in Week 4, but the Ravens' No. 32 neutral pass rate takes away the run-away-elite ceiling. He's out-scoring Kelce so far, however.

  3. Sam LaPorta - The rookie TE4 all time in half PPR points through 4 weeks and the TE6 in usage this season. Detroit projects for an elite 27.25 points as a team this week, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is out.

  4. T.J. Hockenson - The TE4 in usage, and the Vikings will lean back into the pass in Week 5 against the Chiefs.

  5. Evan Engram - His targets have picked up without Zay Jones (questionable) and with Jacksonville's rushing success cratering, as Engram can be used underneath in the quick game. The Bills are 3rd-best against fantasy TEs so far, but they haven't played a team that features a good TE yet. Potential garbage time would be kind to Engram most likely.

  6. Darren Waller - Likely cooked, Waller's usage has now dropped to TE16 behind an injured OL. The scheming we saw in the preseason hasn't translated so far. This ranking says more about the state of the rest of the TE class right now. Waller isn't an "elite".

  7. George Kittle - Like last year, Kittle's expected half PPR points sit at 4.1 per game with Aiyuk, Deebo, and CMC in the lineup. He's capable of the big play still, but the floor is gone, especially with the Niners' team total down at 24.25 points this week against the Cowboys.

  8. Jake Ferguson - The TE2 in usage and a massive positive regression candidate in general. Facing LB Fred Warner and company doesn't help his odds of paying off here, however.

  9. Hunter Henry - The TE6 on TE5 routes and TE10 usage, but this is an unfavorable matchup in general. The Saints are 5th-best against fantasy TEs, though Luke Musgrave (6-49-0) and Cade Otton (3-13-1) have done some things in back-to-back weeks. Henry is the Patriots' quick game easy button when pressured and in the red zone.

  10. Luke Musgrave - The TE13 despite multiple near long TDs went incomplete. A matchup with the Raiders could be what the doctor ordered. Thursday to the following Monday should be enough time to clear concussion protocol, especially after full practices.

  11. Logan Thomas - He returned to 78% routes in Week 4 and is the TE10 on TE12 usage with Washington's offense peppering their tight ends. The starting TE for the Commanders is averaging 9.1 expected half PPR points, equivalent to the TE5 this year. Wild stuff.

  12. Dalton Kincaid - TE16 routes in an elite offense is enough to break ties in TE2 hell. His targets were slightly up last week against a soft zone shell.

  13. Dallas Goedert - Squeaky wheel candidate, but he's turned the TE2 overall in routes into TE34 production. Why throw him the ball when Hurts can run or throw it to his stud WRs?

  14. Zach Ertz - The TE3 in usage, coming of 43-of-49 routes. He's all catch-and-fall a la 2018 Jason Witten.

  15. Cole Kmet - Left wide open in coverage busts and scramble drills in last week's blowup. He's the TE13 in routes and TE8 in usage so far, operating as DJ Moore's sidekick. The Commanders have allowed the fewest fantasy points to TEs this year. 6.85 fantasy points in the Pick'em lobby.

  16. Dalton Schultz - Up to 71% routes and TE17 usage in the Texans' ascending offense. He's been so ineffective on a per-target basis, but Stroud may be on a Dak trajectory quicker than imagined.

  17. Kyle Pitts - The TE11 in usage and coming off 30-of-37 Week 4 routes. This is a QB problem mostly, but it doesn't help that he's not fully healthy right now. His downfield targets will result in a big fantasy outing eventually. The floor is hard to stomach in the meantime, especially while he's not at full health.

  18. Tyler Higbee - This assumes Cooper Kupp is back.

  19. Dawson Knox - TE19 routes as a TD-or-bust prayer.

  20. Jonnu Smith - I can't believe it, but Jonnu is actually averaging 8.8 expected points in his last 3 outings. All of the traditional short targets go to him, while Pitts is treated like Desean Jackson.

  21. Hayden Hurst - 64% routes in this offense isn't good enough.

  22. Durham Smythe - Simply hoping for a red zone TD in Miami.

  23. Tyler Conklin - The Broncos LBs have been awful.

  24. Adam Trautman - The Jets have been smoked by TEs.

  25. Kylen Granson - Only 57% routes in Week 4.

  26. Juwan Johnson (Questionable)

  27. Taysom Hill

  28. Chigoziem Okonkwo

  29. Mike Gesicki

  30. Noah Gray

Week 5 Fantasy Defenses For Sickos

The fantasy football defenses of Week 5 are Ravens, Commanders, Lions, Dolphins, Colts, and Saints.

Week 5 K Rankings

Jk. I'm not a virgin.

Underdog Fantasy "Battle Royale" DFS

To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.