Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:
1. Jalen Hurts - Eagles vs. MIA (27.25 points, -2.5 spread)
Dolphins DC Vic Fangio specializes in not letting the deep ball beat him, so the Eagles may lean more run heavy and with underneath passes this game. Hurts will be heavily involved with that game plan still, and the Dolphins banged-up secondary has aided into a No. 23 ranking against fantasy QBs, allowing season-best games from Mac Jones, Josh Allen, and Bryce Young. Philly has the highest team total of the week.
2. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs vs. LAC (26.5, -5.5)
This is an eruption spot. He's averaged 309 passing yards and 2.75 TDs in his last 4 games against the Chargers, who are dead last against fantasy QBs this year.
3. Josh Allen - Bills @ NE (24.0, -7.5)
Bill Belichick still knows ball, but he's without EDGE1 Matt Judon (IR), CB1 Christian Gonzalez (IR), CB2 Jack Jones (IR), SCB Marcus Jones (IR), CB Jonathan Jones (DNP), EDGE2 Josh Uche (DNP), and EDGE3 Keion White (DNP) right now. As long as Allen's shoulder injury (limited) is fine after a Week 6 x-ray, he's a top-3 option as usual.
4. Lamar Jackson - Ravens vs. DET (23.0, -3.0)
The Lions have been the best at stopping RBs this year, but they've yet to face a dual-threat QB like Lamar, who is the QB6 despite OL injuries (now healed) and WR drops (work in progress). Detroit is also missing CB1 Emmanuel Moseley (IR), SS Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (IR), and potentially SCB Brian Branch (limited) in the secondary. This looks like an underrated spot for Lamar to have a spike week with LT Ronnie Stanley coming off his first truly healthy game.
5. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins @ PHI (24.25, +3.0)
Offenses facing the Eagles stud DL are choosing to pass the ball at the 3rd-highest rate in neutral situations, partially because the secondary isn't healthy. SCB Avonte Maddox (IR), S Reed Blankenship (DNP), CB Bradley Roby (DNP), and CB Darius Slay (limited) are all dealing with injuries. Tua's quick release should silence some of the Eagles' pass rush, but this is a real test for the offense after lighting up weaker opponents (CAR, NYG, DEN, LAC). Offense usually wins out, especially when coached by Mike McDaniel. There's a reason this is the highest game total of the week (51.5).
6. Geno Smith - Seahawks vs. ARI (26.25, -8.0)
Seattle has the 3rd-highest team total of the week (26.0) while hosting the No. 29 fantasy QB defense. Geno also has his LT Charles Cross back in the starting lineup and has still been the QB2 in completion percentage over expected while managing the OL injuries this year. On that note, RT Abe Lucas is still week to week.
7. Matthew Stafford - Rams vs. PIT (23.5, -3.0)
With Cooper Kupp healthy and with their top 2 RBs injured, it'd be a surprise if Stafford wasn't near the top of pass attempts this week, especially with the Steelers offense getting healthy off their bye. Stafford's EPA per attempt has jumped from +0.12 to +0.25 with Kupp on the field per Sports Info Solutions. We'll see if rookie CB Joey Porter becomes a full-time player out of the bye. He's been their top option in a limited sample.
8. Brock Purdy - 49ers @ MIN (25.25, -6.5)
Injuries will play a big part of this ranking, but the Niners' 25.5-point team total suggests Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams will be close to normal. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 25th against fantasy QBs while opposing offenses chose to pass at the 5th-highest rate in neutral situations. Purdy has been the QB5 in EPA per attempt and QB7 in success rate against Cover 0 and Cover 1 looks this year, which is what the Vikings throw all the time under DC Brian Flores.
9. Justin Herbert - Chargers @ KC (21.0, +5.5)
With his dislocated finger, Herbert has had -7.2% and -6.2% completion percentage over expected in the last two weeks and he's faced 10.6% more pressure with C Corey Linsley (heart) on IR per Sports Info Solutions. It's a tough spot again here in Kansas City, as the Chiefs are 6th against fantasy QBs and 3rd in passing EPA allowed. The Chargers only project for 21.5 points.
10. Jordan Love - Packers @ DEN (23.0, -1.0)
Only Anthony Richardson has a lower completion percentage over expected this year, as Love's inaccuracies have left big plays on the field. That said, the Broncos are a walking big play on defense, ranking 30th against fantasy QBs, 32nd in passing EPA allowed, and 20th in sack rate. To make matters worse, both starting Bronco safeties are on the injury report now. The Packers have a rock-solid 23.0-point team total in the first game with a fully healthy skill group.
11. Jared Goff - Lions @ BAL (20.0, +3.0)
The Ravens are top-6 in the key fantasy QB matchup metrics: 1st against fantasy QBs, 4th in passing EPA allowed, 4th in sack rate, and 6th-lowest in neutral pass rate allowed. Those were heavily without CB1 Marlon Humphrey, though against a cupcake QB schedule. It's a difficult road spot for a notorious home/road splits QB, but the Lions may be forced into a pass-heavy game plan with their top-3 RBs dealing with injuries. Goff has been as good as ever this year, ranking 1st (FIRST) in PFF grade through six weeks. This is his toughest test yet.
12. Deshaun Watson - Browns @ IND (22.25, -3.5)
He's practicing on Thursday, and the Browns' 21.75-point team total suggests Watson will start against the Colts, who are 26th against fantasy QBs and 21st in passing EPA allowed. If it wasn't obvious, the Browns' catchable ball rate was down 14% without Watson over the last two weeks per Sports Info Solutions.
13. Sam Howell - Commanders @ NYG (20.25, -3.0)
Sacks have been Howell's biggest problem, but the Giants are dead last in sack rate defensively. This talented WR group should eat against a pair of rookie CBs on the perimeter with Howell under less pressure, and New York's opposing offenses have passed the ball at top-10 rates in neutral situations.
14. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars @ NO (19.5, +1.5)
His mild knee sprain should be fine per reports, but this remains a bad spot heading into Thursday Night Football. The Saints are 7th-best against fantasy QBs and 6th in passing EPA allowed, leading to a lower-than-normal 19.5-point team total for the Jaguars. Lawrence will be without WR Zay Jones, OT/G Walker Little, and potentially RG Brandon Scherff (DNPx3). At least Lawrence has OTs Anton Harrison and Cam Robinson back in the starting lineup.
15. Russell Wilson - Broncos vs. GB (22.0, +1.0)
This is the first week where a benching is possible, as the 1-5 Broncos risk being on the hook for more guaranteed money if Wilson suffers a major injury. The matchup is neutral here, too. The Packers' slow-paced offense and two-high defense has led to opposing offenses to run the 4th-fewest plays on the 2nd-lowest neutral pass rate. The Broncos will be encouraged to run, especially if the Packers No. 9 sack rate DL gets hot against Denver's iffy OL.
16. Kenny Pickett - Steelers @ LAR (20.5, +3.0)
Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth are expected back coming out of the bye week.
17. Josh Dobbs - Cardinals @ SEA (18.25, +8.0)
This Seahawks defense will be one of the best moving forward with 1st-round rookie CB Devon Witherspoon and SS Jamal Adams in the starting lineup.
20. Baker Mayfield - Bucs vs. ATL (20.0, -2.5)
This team really can't run the ball, especially against this defensive line. Mayfield should finish with enough pass attempts to sneak by.
19. Kirk Cousins - Vikings vs. SF (18.75, +6.5)
In the first game without Justin Jefferson, the Vikings' neutral pass rate slightly dipped to 52%. It's a trend worth monitoring, though Minnesota may not have the luxury of choosing what to do this week against the Niners. Teams facing San Francisco have passed the ball in neutral situations at the 3rd-highest rate. That said, it hasn't worked (2nd in passing EPA allowed). There is a talent disparity here.
20. Derek Carr - Saints vs. JAX (20.5, -1.5)
Carr is without both starting OTs, a backup OT, and a OG this week, and they still won't put 2022 1st-round OT Trevor Penning in at left tackle. It's a bad spot against an emerging Jaguars defensive line, led by an on-fire Josh Allen.
21. Desmond Ridder - Falcons @ TB (17.75, +2.5)
22. Gardner Minshew - Colts vs. CLE (18.75, +2.5)
23. Brian Hoyer - Raiders @ CHI (20.0, -2.5)
24. Tyrod Taylor - Giants vs. WAS (17.25, +3.0)
The following are out: T Evan Neal (ankle), T Matt Peart (shoulder), C John Michael Schmitz (shoulder), T Andrew Thomas (hamstring), and OG Shane Lemieux (IR). That's a tough look against one of the better DLs in football this week.
25. Mac Jones - Patriots vs. BUF (16.5, +7.5)
26. Tyson Bagent - Bears vs. LV (17.5, +2.5)
I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.
Kenneth Walker - He's the RB4 on RB6 usage over the last month, and Post-Bye Rookie Bump candidate Zach Charbonnet didn't eat into Walker's Week 6 workload. In fact, Walker had a season-high 21.2 expected half PPR points then. Walker's big play ability is increased with LT Charles Cross back in the lineup. Seattle is 6-point home favorites against the Cardinals' No. 30 fantasy RB defense. 97.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Austin Ekeler - It wasn't pretty in his return, but Ekeler immediately had 19.9 expected half PPR points in Week 6. A potential shootout with the Chiefs awaits, though Kansas City has Chris Jones and the No. 5 fantasy RB defense. 89.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Josh Jacobs - He's the RB9 on RB4 usage over the last month and has reached 21.2 or more expected half PPR points in 3-straight games. The efficiency remains a concern, but the Bears are 4th-worst against fantasy RBs. Chicago has allowed 12+ half PPR points to Aaron Jones (25.7), Rachaad White (18.8), Jerick McKinnon (16.3), Isiah Pacheco (14.8), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (12.2), and Jaleel McLaughlin (17.9). Those aren't superstar RBs to put it lightly. 101.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Raheem Mostert - Coming off a season-high 21.9 expected half PPR points without De'Von Achane last week, and he's one of the most efficient runners all year in this never-seen-before system. Jeff Wilson is expected back this week as a powerful complement, but this is Mostert's backfield until proven otherwise. The Eagles' elite DL should slow down between-tackles run. The problem is the Dolphins are using pitches, sweeps, and misdirection better than anyone has before. 72.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Christian McCaffrey (Questionable) - He was DNP-limited-limited in practice and is reportedly on track to play. In fact, CMC said he "feels great" after Saturday's practice, but there's a decent chance he's not seeing the same volume coming off injury. He won't have LT Trent Williams (ankle), nor Deebo Samuel (shoulder) here in a solid road matchup with the Vikings. If there's an unexpected set back, Eli Mitchell is a slight favorite to Jordan Mason for RB touches.
Travis Etienne - The goal line role is his, thanks to Tank Bigsby's 68th out of 71 RB ranking in PFF grade. Etienne is up to RB5 on RB9 usage over the last month as a modern-day bellcow. The primary concern is a Saints defense that's 2nd-best against fantasy RBs and has only allowed Derrick Henry to hit 10+ half PPR points.
D'Andre Swift - The Dolphins' two-high shell defense is breeding rushing points to opposing RBs. In fact, offenses facing Miami have the highest neutral run rate in the NFL. Swift is averaging 17.1 half PPR points on 17.5 expected half PPR points since he was the starter in Week 2, which equates to RB7 usage. Hopefully RT Lane Johnson (ankle) suits up. 89.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Saquon Barkley - Despite his first game back from an ankle sprain that seemed to get higher by the week (shoutout Denny Carter), Saquon led all RBs in fantasy usage in Week 6. To nobody's surprise, it still didn't end well thanks to New York's injured OL and Daniel Jones' absence. The Giants lost another starting OG in practice this week. Only the Patriots have a worse team total this week. 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Isiah Pacheco - Kansas City is tied for the most points this week (27.0), and he's been the RB7 on RB8 usage over the last month. The Chargers aren't laughable against the run anymore (3.9 YPC), but Pacheco eats in positive game script (5.5-point favorites) and is averaging 2.8 receptions per game this year versus 0.8 last year. 82.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bijan Robinson - With Tyler Allgeier continuing to be the favorite for inside the 5-yard line touches (he had the failed goal line 2-point conversion just last week), Robinson's paths to elite fantasy production are limited. In fact, he's the RB14 on RB20 fantasy usage over the last month despite being a very good player. The Falcons have the 3rd-lowest team total per the betting markets this week against the Bucs, who have been a major pass funnel this year (2nd highest neutral pass rate). 85.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Alvin Kamara - He's the RB10 on RB5 usage over the last month, though Jamaal Williams (limited x2) has been out during this time. The Saints are also dealing with major OL injuries: OT Ryan Ramczyk (DNPx2), OT James Hurst (DNP x2), OG G Andrus Peat (limited x2), OG Trai Turner (IR). The Jaguars have also only allowed 3.4 YPC and 2 rushing TDs this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs - David Montgomery (ribs) is out weeks, and Craig Reynolds was DNP-limited-limited in practice this week as a game-time decision. The honest Lions coaching staff said they "need" Gibbs this week, and I believe them even if he's been inconsistent and typecasted with his to-date assignments. Gibbs will be schemed up at least 15 touches with the speed to make a big play. He busted on a season-high 15.3 expected half PPR in this role in Week 3. The Ravens will be a big test for the rookie. If Reynolds can't go, Devine Ozigbo may be the next in line. 85.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Aaron Jones (Questionable) - It's a state of fantasy RB2s that Jones, who is a 28-year-old coming off a setback with his hamstring injury (limited x3), is the RB12 in my rankings. The Packers OL is injured, too, but the Broncos have allowed 5 different RBs to reach 20+ half PPR points this year. That's outrageous. Green Bay's 23.0-point team total is 8th-best on the week. 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Brian Robinson - He's the RB14 on the year, but Robinson is very game-script dependent. This week, the Commanders are 2-point road favorites to the Giants, who are 6th-worst against fantasy RBs on the most RB carries per game. It's a solid set up for B-Rob who scored on a screen TD last week, while Antonio Gibson scored on a play action flat route at the goal line. 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jerome Ford - It was Kareem Hunt who started and saw the first touches over Ford last week, which makes this an unsettled backfield. Ford still finished with 10.7 expected half PPR points to Hunt's 10.4 thanks to Ford's late-game rushing, and Ford had been the clear Nick Chubb replacement the entire offseason and before their Week 5 bye. The Browns' 21.75-point team total suggests Deshaun Watson is back and there is RB2 value to be had against a Colts defense that's 7th-worst against fantasy RBs.
Jonathan Taylor - He played 42% snaps last week and is trending towards a 60-40 split in Week 6, while Zack Moss as a capable player in all phases. This week, neither are set up well. The Colts have the 6th-fewest implied points (18.75) against a Browns defense that has allowed just one fantasy RB (CMC, ever heard of him?) to reach 11.0 half PPR points. 70.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Alexander Mattison - He dusted Cam Akers last week, seeing 15.0 expected half PPR points while playing 78% snaps. The problem is that's a week-to-week scenario, and the Vikings are projected for the 4th-fewest points while playing the Niners (3.9 YPC). 69.5 total yards in Pick'em.
James Cook - He's the RB23 on the year, but it's been a roller coaster each week. No Damien Harris (neck) helps Cook and Latavius Murray, who had all 3 inside the 5-yard line opportunities last week. Cook remains the favorite for home run plays, while Murray mixes in at the goal line and in pass protection situations. The Patriots have been stingy against the run but are top-10 in RB receptions allowed. 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Rhamondre Stevenson - He's coming off a season-high 15.0 expected half PPR points on 62% snaps, but the Patriots have the lowest team total (16.25) of the week against the Bills and Ezekiel Elliott did steal of the goal line opportunities just last week. At least offenses facing the Bills are choosing to run the ball in neutral situations at the 2nd-highest rate, leading to Buffalo's strong defense only ranking 25th against fantasy RBs. 61.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Rachaad White - He's coming off a season low 7.8 expected half PPR points with Ke'Shawn Vaughn stealing work in the first half of the game in the Bucs' first game off bye. White can't afford to lose work, as he's averaging just 3.3 YPC already. A date with the Falcons isn't likely to help either. Atlanta is 4th-best against fantasy RBs on 3.8 scoreless YPC. 70.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Najee Harris - The Steelers have their starting skill group healthy coming off the bye and are projected for a solid-enough 20.5 points against the Rams. Harris is in an even split committee, however. He's yet to break 11.0 expected half PPR points and has been running below expected anyways, while Jaylen Warren has settled between 8.0 and 10.1 expected half PPR points in every game. 63.5 total yards in Pick'em.
D'Onta Foreman - Roschon Johnson (concussion) is out again. As the lead back last week, Foreman saw 10.8 expected half PPR points with Darrynton Evans playing some passing downs. Travis Homer should be ready to be Foreman's complement this week, but Foreman is the goal line guy either way. The Bears project for 17.25 points against the Raiders, which is the 3rd-fewest on the week. 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Javonte Williams - This is a full-blown 3-RB committee. Last week, Jaleel McLaughlin led the group with *checks notes* 5.3 expected half PPR points, followed by Williams (4.3) and Samaje Perine (1.8). McLaughlin was the starter and played the most passing downs, while Williams handled most of the between-tackles work. Denver is 1-point dogs to the Packers, who are 5th-worst against fantasy RBs. 65.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Royce Freeman - The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue is a total stud, and she reported that Freeman was leading RB drills in practice this week, while also noting how valuable Darrell Henderson's experience is in certain situations (read: pass pro). On Saturday night, ESPN's Adam Schefter (ever hear of him?) reported that Freeman and Henderson will split the workload with Freeman starting, Henderson mixing in, Zach Evans still learning the offense, and Myles Gaskin as a health scratch while he learns the new playbook. This all checks out schematically. One issue: Freeman has averaged 2.9 YPC on 97 carries since 2021.
Jeff Wilson - He's "good to go" and should be the Dolphins No. 2 ahead of Salvon Ahmed, who had 10.9 expected half PPR points in that role last week. Wilson was given the same contract this offseason and the same workload last year as Mostert, so there are clear paths to upside here if he's truly healthy. The timing isn't ideal for Wilson, however, with the Eagles on deck.
Gus Edwards - He had a season-high 14.3 expected half PPR points on 62% snaps last week, but The Bus has a career low in yards after contact right now, while running more zone than ever. Justice Hill is the featured player in passing situations as this 2-RB committee continues. The Lions are allowing an NFL best 47 rushing yards per game to RBs. 45.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Keaontay Ingram - It was a 3-RB committee last week headlined by Ingram (8.3 expected half PPR points) on the ground as the starter, Emari Demercado (2.0) as the passing down back, and Damien Williams (4.5) as the change of pace rusher. Game script works against Ingram as 7.0-point dogs to the Seahawks, who are getting healthy on defense. 46.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Warren - See RB25 Najee Harris. 54.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Zack Moss - See RB15 Jonathan Taylor. 34.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Latavius Murray - See RB17 James Cook. 38.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kareem Hunt - See RB14 Jerome Ford.
Justice Hill - See RB28 Gus Edwards. 26.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Darrell Henderson (Questionable) - See RB24 Royce Freeman.
AJ Dillon - See RB13 Aaron Jones. 35.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Jaleel McLaughlin - See RB24 Javonte Williams. 33.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Ezekiel Elliott - See RB18 Rhamondre Stevenson. 40.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Allgeier - See RB10 Bijan Robinson. 43.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Craig Reynolds (Questionable) - See RB12 Jahmyr Gibbs.
Elijah Mitchell - See RB4 Christian McCaffrey.
Jordan Mason - See RB4 Christian McCaffrey.
Zach Evans (Questionable)
Tyreek Hill - 98.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - 91.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Stefon Diggs - 87.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
A.J. Brown - 80.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Keenan Allen - 78.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Injured RBs likely mean more targets for ARSB. 73.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Davante Adams - The wheels are squeaking, but he's still limited with his shoulder and Jimmy G is out. He's had 6.3 and 6.5 expected half PPR points over the last two weeks. 73.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandon Aiyuk - Deebo Samuel (shoulder) is week-to-week, while Trent Williams is out and Christian McCaffrey (oblique) is likely playing. It's a great spot for Aiyuk, as the clear top target against a very beatable secondary. The Vikings blitz a ton, but Purdy has been EPA's QB5 against Cover 0 and Cover 1. 69.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Waddle - He's had 13.7 and 13.9 expected half PPR points over the last two weeks with the Dolphins missing RB De'Von Achane, making him the WR14 in usage over the last month. Offenses facing this injured Eagles secondary have chosen to pass the ball at the 3rd-highest rate. This is a potential Waddle blowup game. 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Puka Nacua - Injured RBs likely mean more targets for Nacua. 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett - See WR30 DK Metcalf. 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em, which is one of my favorite highers.
Amari Cooper - This assumes Deshaun Watson is playing, as Cooper's expected half PPR points jump to 11.0 with QB1 compared to 8.3 with backups (not to mention the efficiency). He'll see some of rookie CB JuJu Brents. 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zay Flowers - The WR33 on WR17 usage over the last month, and Flowers catches a Lions secondary potentially without 3 key starters if NCB Brian Branch is out. 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Christian Kirk - He's averaged 11.0 expected half PPR points since Week 2 when he returned to 2-WR sets sans Zay Jones (out). Kirk should dodge Lattimore while playing inside and should see NCB Alontae Taylor, who is 1st in snaps per target.
Terry McLaurin - The Giants start two rookie CBs on the perimeter. 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Evans - The WR27 on WR5 usage over the last month, including last week's game where he played 83% snaps (hamstring). He'll see stud CB1 A.J. Terrell with FS Jessie Bates in coverage this week. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Godwin - The WR31 on WR29 usage, but he gets the easier matchup on the inside away from Terrell and I don't see Tampa running on Atlanta much. 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Marquise Brown - The WR18 on WR11 usage over the last month, and he was just missed on deep targets last week. The Seahawks' secondary is way healthier now but have been 31st against fantasy WRs. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Calvin Ridley - He's the WR31 on WR22 usage this season, while running bad on near TDs and DPIs downfield. Ridley isn't getting the underneath volume that other No. 1 WRs get, but he has the valuable downfield role if willing to ride out variance. Ridley will be tasked with beating CB1 Marshon Lattimore here.
Chris Olave - He's due for more deep-target receptions, but it's worth tracking that Olave's expected half PPR points have dropped from 13.5 to 9.5 with Alvin Kamara in the lineup. Same with his target share: 32% to 19%.
Christian Watson - He was used as a deep threat while trailing in his full-snap return, but Watson was missed by Love multiple times and Watson was hawked from behind after the catch. His volatile play has spike-week potential this week against the Broncos. Watson had 8.0 expected half PPR points last game, with Romeo Doubs (4.8) and slot-only Jayden Reed (3.2) rounding out 3-WR sets. 58.5 rushing receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeVonta Smith (Questionable) - He's been DNP-limited-limited in practice with a new hamstring injury, so Smith is likely playing at less than full health this week. 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DK Metcalf (Questionable) - He's been DNP-DNP-limited and is a true game-time decision. If healthy (very big if especially with an afternoon kickoff), it's a great spot. Seattle has the 3rd-highest team total against a Cardinals secondary who starts a 6th-round rookie CB and the CB who has allowed the most yardage per PFF. Metcalf, who has a career-high 14.7 aDOT, had a 55.5 receiving yards projection in Pick'em before more news on his injury. If out, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is in a great spot for a breakout.
Michael Pittman - The Colts had a season-high 83% target rate with Gardner Minshew far more likely to pass (and throw accurately). This week, Pittman gets stud CB1 Denzel Ward and the Browns' No. 1 fantasy WR defense. 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DJ Moore - Nobody is running hotter with long TDs than Moore, who is the WR23 in expected points over the last month. Already a negative regression candidate, things get way worse without Justin Fields (thumb) here. At least the Raiders secondary is bad. 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jordan Addison - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Drake London - The WR29 on WR18 usage over the last month, and this week the Falcons get the pass-funnel Bucs, who are 23rd against fantasy WRs. 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Joshua Palmer - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gabe Davis - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jakobi Meyers - The WR16 on WR15 usage over the last month, but no Jimmy G and rookie TE Michael Mayer is emerging. 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Pickens - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Diontae Johnson - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Courtland Sutton - He's run hot on TDs, but this week gets CB1 Jaire Alexander on the perimeter. The Packers limit deep targets schematically. 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Romeo Doubs - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashee Rice - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Downs - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
K.J. Osborn - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tutu Atwell - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kendrick Bourne - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Reynolds - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Curtis Samuel - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kadarius Toney - 32.5 receiving and rushing yards in Pick'em.
Darius Slayton - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeVante Parker - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jahan Dotson - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Elijah Moore - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Wilson - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rondale Moore - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jayden Reed - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Odell Beckham - 21.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Skyy Moore - 21.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jalin Hyatt - 18.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Quentin Johnston - 17.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Travis Kelce - He's averaged 6.75 receptions and 91 receiving yards in his last 8 games against the Chargers, including a 6-115-3 line in his last outing.
Mark Andrews - Hoping his career-low 1.7 yards per route ticks up, but this does happen with more target competition like the Ravens have added. Still, Andrews is healthy with TE3 production on TE4 usage. The Lions haven't faced many receiving TEs to date, yet have allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to the position (94 per game).
T.J. Hockenson - The steadiest workload aside from Kelce, with 8+ targets in 5-of-6 games. That should continue without Justin Jefferson, especially against the 49ers. Teams facing SF pass the ball at the 4th-highest rate in neutral situations. That said, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw (questionable) are monsters.
Sam LaPorta - A decreased team total and the Ravens NFL-leading defense against TEs (25.2 scoreless yards) work against LaPorta. The rookie did have his highest expected half PPR game of the year last week (13.6) with David Montgomery out. Detroit likely passes more than usual here.
George Kittle - It's easier for him to hit a ceiling without CMC or Deebo, but Kittle may stay in to chip block if LT Trent Williams (ankle) is injured. Either way, Kittle is extremely boom-bust. He has 10 games with fewer than 5.0 half PPR points and 6 games with more than 16.9 since 2022, ultimately averaging 10.5.
Kyle Pitts - He's up to TE3 usage over the last month with 8.8+ expected half PPR points in 4 of his last 5 games. Pitts benefits from the Bucs' pass funnel, too. Just think of him as an inconsistent deep threat WR.
Dallas Goedert - The TE2 in routes on a team projected for the most points on the week. He's up to the TE8 in usage over the last month, too. Hunter Henry (6-52-1) and Darren Waller (8-86-0) have gotten home against Miami.
Evan Engram - No Zay Jones again, and Engram has had 7.4 to 9.0 expected half PPR points in the last 5 games. The issue is a short week with T-Law's injury, and the Saints' No. 2 ranking in receptions allowed to TEs (3.1 per game).
Darren Waller - Hopefully Daniel Jones returns because Waller's two highest usage games have been the last two weeks, now that he's weeks removed from his hamstring injury. The Commanders are a neutral matchup.
Jonnu Smith - He's the TE7 on TE9 usage over the last month, while operating as a more traditional underneath TE.
Luke Musgrave - The Broncos have allowed the most receiving yards per game to TEs (76), and Green Bay is 8th in projected points. Musgrave has been this close to big gains multiple times this year. Before his concussion, the rookie had 10.7 and 7.0 expected half PPR points in his most recent games.
David Njoku - He's the TE23 in usage over the last month and has under 7.3 expected half PPR in all games. Deshaun Watson's return is a big deal, however. Njoku still ran a route on 85% of dropbacks last week despite the burns. He's a warrior. The Colts have allowed the 4th-most receptions to TEs this year.
Logan Thomas - He busted in Week 6 but still played 78% snaps. The Giants are a fine enough matchup.
Taysom Hill - With Juwan Johnson (calf) injured, Taysom ran 37 routes (66%) last week leading to 8 targets. He'll compete with Foster Moreau and Jimmy Graham for snaps against the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football. What a sentence in 2023.
Michael Mayer - He had a season-high 9.0 expected half PPR points on 67% routes. His explosiveness was on tape, too, so there is a path to relevancy quicker than later. It helps that the Bears have allowed the 2nd-most receptions to TEs this year.
Gerald Everett - Season-high 8.7 exp half PPR on 74% snaps, but he's still just the TE18 in usage over the last month with Donald Parham (34% routes) still mixing in, especially in the red zone.
Tyler Higbee - His expected half PPR points have dropped from 8.1 to 4.5 with Kupp back, but the Rams could go completely pass heavy with their top RBs injured.
Cole Kmet - He had a season-low 1.9 half PPR points without Justin Fields (thumb) last week.
Kylen Granson - He's the TE27 on TE17 usage this month, with between 5.3 & 7.5 expected half PPR in all games. The Colts will throw more with Gardner Minshew, too.
Mike Gesicki - This assumes Hunter Henry (DNP-DNP-limited) misses.
The fantasy football defenses of Week 7 are the Browns (at IND), Raiders (at CHI), Commanders (at NYG), Bills (at NE), and Buccaneers (vs. ATL).
Jk. I'm not a virgin.
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.