Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:
1. Lamar Jackson - Ravens @ ARI (26.5 points, -8.5 spread)
2. Josh Allen - Bills vs. TB (26.25, -9.5)
3. Jalen Hurts - Eagles @ WAS (25.0 points, -6.5)
4. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs @ DEN (26.5, -7.0)
5. Justin Herbert - Chargers vs. CHI (27.5, -8.5)
His accuracy since his finger injury sits at a career low, but Herbert gets the ultimate get right spot another week removed from that ailment with the Bears moving west. No Big Mike, C Corey Linsley, and perhaps Joshua Palmer (DNP-DNP-limited) stack the odds against another wise perfect matchup. The betting markets still believe, with the Chargers projected for the 2nd-most points of the week (27.5).
6. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins vs. NE (27.75, -9.5)
7. Jared Goff - Lions vs. LV (27.25, -8.5)
Back in the comfort of his home and indoor conditions, Goff is ready to exploit a Raiders defense with question marks outside of Maxx Crosby. Vegas is 26th in passing EPA allowed and 23rd in sack rate, and Goff is PFF's QB1 overall when "kept clean". He's clearly in the fantasy QB1 mix now that the Lions are 3rd in implied points (27.25) without David Montgomery to soak up a large chunk of the touchdown equity. It's possible the Lions don't pass the ball just 34% of the time inside the 10-yard line (30th) this week.
8. Dak Prescott - Cowboys vs. LAR (25.75, -6.0)
Dallas is 7th in projected points this week (25.75), and at some point, Prescott will benefit from positive regression in the red zone. Only 39% of their red zone drives have ended in a TD (26th) after they converted 71% (1st) last season. The Cowboys are coming off their bye here and had their starting 5 OL back in the starting lineup back in Week 6. Even with Aaron Donald, the Rams are just 28th in sack rate, so Prescott should have time to dice up an inexperienced secondary. It's fully time to panic if things don't correct here.
9. C.J. Stroud - Texans @ CAR (23.25, -3.0)
Stroud is the QB4 in yards per attempt coming out of his Post Bye Rookie Bump, and he now has both of his starting OTs at full health. If the Texans can improve on their No. 27 red zone conversion rate, Stroud can enter the QB1 discussion long term because their between-20s passing offense is rock solid. In fact, they're 6th in passing EPA including the red zone woes. New OC Bobby Slowic is dialing up highly-efficient deep middle pass attempts at the league's highest rate, and that's only possible because Stroud is seeing the field well and has the arm talent to find spots. It's similar to 90% Matthew Stafford stuff right now. I'm very impressed.
10. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars @ PIT (22.25, -2.5)
On the flip side to Stroud, everything has been difficult for Lawrence this season. There are too many sideline prayer targets in this offense, which explains all of the near completions to Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones (out) earlier in the year. After getting picked apart earlier, the Steelers secondary has tightened up by playing early 2nd-round rookie CB Joey Porter Jr. (questionable) more.
11. Joe Burrow - Bengals vs. SF (20.25, +3.5)
It's at least a good sign both Burrow and Tee Higgins were completely left off the injury report coming off the bye, and there was a report that Burrow was able to work under center in practice. That'd open up a new part of the playbook. Burrow will need everything he can get against the 49ers No. 3 fantasy QB defense. Cincy has an average-at-best 20.25-point team total.
12. Brock Purdy - 49ers vs. CIN (24.5, -5.5)
Purdy cleared concussion protocol after getting in DNP-limited-full practices this week. The Niners' team total dropped to 23.25 points with Sam Darnold but has since rebounded.
13. Kirk Cousins - Vikings @ GB (21.5, -1.0)
Offenses facing the Packers run the ball at the 4th-highest rate in neutral situations (because they can't stop the run), so we'll see if this pass-heavy offense leans into tendencies or not. Last season, the Vikings had 44% and 50% neutral pass rates against Green Bay, which is lower than their usual baseline. It'll be a challenge for Jordan Addison against CB1 Jaire Alexander, too. Even with Cousins being underrated by essentially everyone for years in a row, this is a challenging spot for fantasy production.
14. Geno Smith - Seahawks vs. CLE (20.75, -3.5)
Seattle is expected to get DK Metcalf (hip) back this week after a full practice on Wednesday, and they'll need him against a studly Browns defense. They're No. 1 in sack rate, passing EPA allowed, and neutral pass rate allowed thanks to super start genetic wonder Myles Garrett. On top of that, Cleveland also forces "Prayer Targets" at the highest rate in the NFL. Smith will need to be a baller to be a fringe QB1. The Seahawks have an average 20.75-point team total.
15. Desmond Ridder - Falcons @ TEN (19.25, -3.0)
16. Gardner Minshew - Colts vs. NO (21.25, +1.0)
Minshew's 7.9 turnover worthy play rate per PFF is out of control bad, but this is fantasy football. The Colts are 6th in plays per game on top-5 neutral pace and top-5 4th-down aggressiveness with a decent-enough group of skill players to make things work. Since 2020, Minshew is the QB14 in fantasy points per start (15 games) out of 71 qualifiers with 4+ starts. It'll be a challenge against the No. 9 fantasy QB defense this week, but Minshew is a legit option in super flex. Indy is 14th in implied points, too.
17. Jordan Love - Packers vs. MIN (20.5, +1.0)
18. Matthew Stafford - Rams @ DAL (19.75, +6.0)
19. Kenny Pickett - Steelers vs. JAX (19.75, +2.5)
20. Derek Carr - Saints @ IND (22.25, -1.0)
21. Bryce Young - Panthers vs. HOU (20.25, +3.0)
22. Russell Wilson - Broncos vs. KC (19.5, +7.0)
23. Mac Jones - Patriots @ MIA (18.5, +9.5)
24. Jimmy Garoppolo - Raiders @ DET (19.0, +8.5)
25. Sam Howell - Commanders vs. PHI (18.5, +6.5)
26. Joshua Dobbs - Cardinals vs. BAL (18.0, +8.5)
27. Tyson Bagent - Bears @ LAC (19.0, +8.5)
28. P.J. Walker - Browns @ SEA (17.25, +3.5)
29. Zach Wilson - Jets @ NYG (19.75, -3.0)
30. Baker Mayfield - Bucs @ BUF (16.75, +9.5)
He was DNP-limited-full with a knee injury and now heads to Buffalo on a short week. Tampa is bottom-3 in projected points this week against a vicious pass rush. Even Chris Godwin is on the injury report.
31. Tyrod Taylor - Giants vs. NYJ (16.75, +3.0)
32. Will Levis - Titans vs. ATL (16.25, +3.0)
I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.
Christian McCaffrey - The oblique isn't a real issue.
Austin Ekeler - Since his return, the Chargers have played their worst ball with Big Mike (IR), C Corey Linsley (IR), and Justin Herbert (finger) injured. Ekeler also picked up a low-grade ankle sprain on his other ankle last week (10.5 expected half PPR points), which is why Joshua Kelley played more than usual. We'll monitor injury reports this week, but the good news is the Bears are on deck. Los Angeles has the 2nd-highest team total of the week.
Alvin Kamara - Derek Carr's check downs are breaking all my charts and models. Enough already... But I don't see this tactic completely changing, especially against a Colts defense that's 5th worst against fantasy RBs (10 TDs allowed). 93.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Raheem Mostert - He had an 18-121-2 rushing line against the Patriots in Week 2, and Miami is back to a league-high 28.5-point team total while back at home. New England's defense is missing half of their starting lineup right now. Last week's snaps went to Mostert (26-of-49), Salvon Ahmed (18), and Jeff Wilson (7) in order, with Mostert handling 9-of-11 RB carries.
Tony Pollard - It's been a career-worst season in PFF grade (66.4), YPC (3.9), fumbles (2 already), yards after contact (2.6), and fantasy points over expected per game (-5.9). He's not the same player on more volume and after his broken ankle and without OC Kellen Moore, but that doesn't mean things can't also get better coming off the bye with the OL in better shape. Dallas is 6th in projected points (26.0) at home against the Rams. 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jahmyr Gibbs - He's had 15.3 and 18.0 expected half PPR points in two starts without David Montgomery. Last week was ideal game script for him in complete garbage time, but he did play most snaps and was used in advantageous ways. OC Ben Johnson primarily ran him on the perimeter and with misdirection to hide his limitations, and the Raiders DL (aside from alpha EDGE Maxx Crosby) is very beatable this week. Lesser RBs like D'Onta Foreman (31.5 half PPR), Rhamondre Stevenson (15.5), Ezekiel Elliott (11.4), AJ Dillon (13.6), James Cook (17.9), and Latavius Murray (10.1) have gotten home against Las Vegas. 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Breece Hall - He's had 19.1 and 13.1 expected half PPR points since being unlocked by the coaching staff. An injured OL and Zach Wilson's individual floor remain hurdles, but Breece is balling still and the Jets are at least projected for 19.5 points against the lowly Giants who are 8th-worst against fantasy RBs on 5.0 YPC. 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Travis Etienne - He has at least 13.2 expected half PPR points in 5-straight games with Tank Bigsby's hands impossible to get hot. Etienne is a modern-day bellcow who can win in either game script. A neutral matchup with the Steelers awaits. 86.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Saquon Barkley - He's had 24.4 and 16.1 expected half PPR points since returning, and Saquon has made a few splash plays on tape. It's possible Daniel Jones, LT Andrew Thomas, and C John Michael-Schmitz return this week, but Saquon's role is very hard to fail in even if they can't suit up. That said, the Giants project for a silly 16.75 points this week. Only the Titans are in a worse spot. 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Isiah Pacheco - The RB6 on RB14 usage this month, and Denver has been brutal against the run just in case you live under a rock. In fact, the Broncos are the only team to allow 1,000 rushing yards and 12 total TDs to RBs. Pacheco had a 16-62-0 rushing line with a career-high 6 receptions against them just two weeks ago. 83.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kenneth Walker - The Browns have only allowed a big game to Jonathan Taylor (19.5 half PPR), but Walker's skillset and RB5 usage are hard to completely fade. Seattle at least has a league-average 20.75-point team total this week. Walker was able to get in a full practice on Friday, as did Zach Charbonnet. 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jonathan Taylor - The backfield was split 50% in terms of snaps last week, with Taylor seeing a season-high 18.5 expected half PPR points to Moss's 10.0. In a fast-paced offense with a check-down capable QB, Taylor has breakout potential every week, especially if Moss (DNP-limited-DNP) misses. Initial reports were Taylor would need a month to get back to full speed. We're there now, and it comes at a good time with Moss very questionable. The Colts have an above-average 22.5-point team total at home.
Bijan Robinson - Last week was simple. He wasn't in danger of actually missing the game, so the Falcons didn't have to disclose Bijan's headache and they were right. He did play in the game. It sucks for us, but rules are rules and fantasy football is chaos (which is why it's fun). When Bijan sees 15-25 touches here, we'll pretend like Week 7 never happened. Conspiracy theories and blaming Arthur Smith are a waste of finite time on this Earth... That said, Robinson has only had 9.8 and 14.8 expected half PPR points in his two games with Cordarrelle Patterson (removing last week) and continues to lose valuable goal-line carries to Tyler Allgeier. Robinson has 14.0 half PPR points per game (RB15) on 12.9 expected points (RB21) this season. A road date with the pass-funnel Titans, who happen to only have allowed 18 receptions to RBs this year, complicates things. 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Josh Jacobs - A lowly 18.5-point team total in Detroit screams tough spot for the west coast sputtering Raiders. Jacobs' -6.8 half PPR points over expected per game are by far the worst in the NFL and finding positive regression (if that's possible for Vegas) is hard to believe in with the Lions allowing 56 rushing yards per game to RBs (2nd best). This is basically as low as I could rank someone with RB3 overall usage this month. 90.5 total yards in Pick'em.
D'Andre Swift - The RB15 on RB10 usage this month, with Kenny Gainwell sneaking in for a last-minute goal line TD last week. That seemed fluky. 66.5 total yards in Pick'em.
James Cook - With Damien Harris (neck) sidelined, Cook popped up for a solid 12.6 expected half PPR points in come-back mode last week. Latavius Murray is still mixing in at the goal line, but it's a good sign that this is a 2-RB committee. Tampa Bay is funneling passes once again while allowing just 4.0 YPC to RBs. Cook can get it done through the air, of course. 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Joe Mixon - The RB29 on RB6 usage over the last month, a similar trend to last year where he was saved with one monster game. Cincy's 21.25-point projection this week is as low as it's been since Burrow arrived. 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Gus Edwards - He's the RB26 on RB26 usage over the last month, including last week's career-high game thanks to a goal line score and a fluky 80-yard reception on a busted play. The Bus is best driven in positive game scripts, and Baltimore is 8.5-point favorites over the Cardinals, who are 3rd worst against fantasy RBs while allowing the 2nd-most carries. 9.55 half PPR in Pick'em.
Dameon Pierce - A potentially beneficiary of a Post Bye Rookie Bump from CJ Stroud and company, Pierce will battle Devin Singletary for touches after losing snaps to him in Week 6. Pierce still had 12.3 expected half PPR points in that one (extending his streak to 5 games of 11.4 or more), but he's struggled behind an injured OL interior. The Texans project for a season-high 23.0 points as home favorites to the Panthers, who are allowing an absurd and league-high +0.16 EPA per carry. Positive game script would solve most of Pierce's fantasy issues to date. 64.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Derrick Henry - I'm not a Will Levis believer, and neither is the betting markets. The Titans have a weekly-low 16.0-point team total, and Henry faces a Post Bye Rookie Bump from Tyjae Spears, who has been a factor in Henry's forgettable 11.9 expected half PPR points this season. To make matters worst, the Falcons are the 3rd-best fantasy RB defense on 3.6 YPC. 79.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Rhamondre Stevenson - He's been most involved and effective in check-down situations, and the Patriots face the Dolphins in Miami. New England's offense also looked different and better in recent games, as they've applied more of the quick-hitting principles Mac Jones thrived in as a rookie and at Alabama. The worst of the Patriots offense is behind them in my opinion. Stevenson has been the RB25 in usage over the last month, losing some drives and goal line opportunities to Ezekiel Elliott. At least Stevenson was in at the goal line on Mike Gesicki's game-winning Griddy last week. 60.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Darrell Henderson - He started, played 57% snaps, handled the lone goal line attempt, and finished with 14.9 expected half PPR points in his Rams debut. Royce Freeman was the clear No. 2, as he handled full drives himself. It's possible Myles Gaskin is active over Zach Evans this week, but it'd be a surprise if it wasn't Henderson and Freeman as the top dogs this week. Hendo will get a head start in a race to establish a "hot" "hand".
Aaron Jones - It's a bad sign that a 28-year-old RB suffered a hamstring injury, a setback to that hamstring injury, and then only played 36% snaps in his return from said setback last week. Until there are full practices, my confidence is low. He went DNP-limited-limited this week. A mid-range team total from the Packers (20.75) and the Vikings' 6th-best fantasy RB defense aren't helping either. 57.5 total yards in Pick'em.
D'Onta Foreman - He had 10.8 and 19.2 expected half PPR points in his two starts without Roschon Johnson as a productive early-down rusher behind a suddenly underrated OL. Foreman is thiccccc and should play ahead of Johnson at the goal line at the very least. 55.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Najee Harris - He had a season-high 14.2 expected half PPR points out of the bye, while handling 15-of-21 RB carries and the lone inside the 5-yard line opportunity. Jaylen Warren just happened to score a longer TD. Harris's increased usage coincides with the Steelers playing watchable football with Diontae Johnson back and Kenny Pickett healthier. The worst of the Steelers offense is behind us in my opinion. Jacksonville has somehow allowed a league-high 51 receptions to RBs. 54.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Rachaad White - In two games out of the bye, White has posted 7.8 and 13.4 expected half PPR points with the coaching staff leaning more committee-based. White jumped to 74% snaps in Week 7, but passing-down complement Chase Edmonds is off injured reserve. There are only two teams projected for fewer points than the Bucs this week: The Giants and Titans. 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Alexander Mattison - It's a week-by-week proposition between Mattison (52% Week 7 snaps) and Cam Akers (39%), and there's just not enough volume to make it work with confidence. Minnesota is 5th in neutral pass rate and 1st in pass rate inside the 10-yard line, so Mattison needs to convert his goal line opportunities at a high clip (which I wouldn't hold my breath on). Over the last month, Mattison is the RB30 on RB22 usage. 64.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kareem Hunt - With Jerome Ford (ankle) questionable, Hunt could be the lead and goal line back ahead of change-of-pace backup Pierre Strong, assuming he's healthy. The Browns are back to P.J. Walker and a forgettable 18.0-point team total, so expectations need to be held in check. Cleveland's starting RB is averaging 11.5 expected half PPR points. Hunt has had 10.4 and 11.1 next to Ford since the Week 5 bye. 63.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Miles Sanders - Comments out of the bye suggest a hot hand committee approach in the Panthers' backfield. In Weeks 4-5, Sanders had 12.1 and 4.0 expected half PPR points to Chuba Hubbard's 12.4 and 8.0. Sanders is healthier now at the very least, but we'll see how new play-caller Thomas Brown dials things up. Hubbard's broken tackle rate is double that of Sanders, who has been an offseason bust for Carolina on a career-low 2.1 yards after contact per carry. 53.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Javonte Williams - He'll need positive game scripts to pay off, as he had 4.3 expected half PPR points in Week 6's loss and 11.5 expected half PPR points in Week 7's win, with change-of-pace speedster Jaleel McLaughin and reliable pass-catcher Samaje Perine both mixing in. It's a bad set up on paper for Javonte against the Chiefs as 8.0-point dogs. Kansas City is 5th-best against fantasy RBs. 67.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Chuba Hubbard - See RB29 Miles Sanders.
Emari Demercado - He had a season-high 11.6 expected half PPR points as the primary passing-down back in Week 8. Garbage time check downs will be needed to pay off against a Baltimore defense that shut down the Lions.
Jaylen Warren - He has between 6.0 and 10.1 expected half PPR points in every game as a clear No. 2 to Najee. 49.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Brian Robinson - He remains the goal line back, but the Commanders introducing rookie Chris Rodriguez into this committee is a bad, bad sign for Robinson, who is down to RB31 usage over the last month. It'll be difficult for Robinson to find the positive game script he needs against the Eagles. Philly has allowed just 50 rushing yards per game to RBs. That's almost impossible to do.
Devin Singletary - See RB19 Dameon Pierce.
Zack Moss (Questionable) - See RB12 Jonathan Taylor.
Jaleel McLaughlin - See RB30 Javonte Williams.
Tyler Allgeier - See RB14 Bijan Robinson.
AJ Dillon - See RB22 Aaron Jones.
Tyjae Spears - See RB26 Derrick Henry.
Latavius Murray - See RB18 James Cook. 36.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Roschon Johnson - See RB21 D'Onta Foreman.
Cam Akers - See RB25 Alexander Mattison. 40.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Justice Hill - See RB18 Gus Edwards.
Ezekiel Elliott - See RB20 Rhamondre Stevenson. 37.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Royce Freeman - See RB21 Darrell Henderson.
Pierre Strong - See RB27 Kareem Hunt.
Craig Reynolds - See RB6 Jahmyr Gibbs.
Joshua Kelley - See RB2 Austin Ekeler.
Jeff Wilson - See RB3 Raheem Mostert.
Antonio Gibson - See RB35 Brian Robinson.
Jamaal Williams - See RB4 Alvin Kamara.
Jerick McKinnon - See RB10 Isiah Pacheco.
Kenneth Gainwell - See RB13 D'Andre Swift.
Stefon Diggs - The WR4 on WR3 usage this month, and his defense is falling apart with injuries. This is a Bucs pass funnel defense playing on short rest. 85.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
A.J. Brown - The WR1 on WR7 usage this month as he continues to Moss on DeVonta Smith in every metric. AJB is out of control good right now, and the Commanders are 28th against fantasy WRs with some of the weakest CB play in the NFL. Fantasy Life's Dwain McFarland notes Brown has a 50% target share vs. man coverage and the Commanders are 2nd in man coverage rate. 85.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyreek Hill - He was back at practice on Thursday (hip) and faces a Patriots defenses filled with injured-reserve starters, including CB1 Christian Gonzalez who played man coverage against Hill earlier in the year with success. 89.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Keenan Allen - The Chargers are 2nd in projected points this week at home against the Bears' No. 29 passing EPA defense. Gerald Everett and Joshua Palmer have been on the injury report, too. 83.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - 84.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - It won't be this drastic because last week was out of control garbage time, but ARSB is averaging 17.6 expected half PPR points without David Montgomery compared to 9.4 with him in the lineup. It's possible the Lions pass more inside the 10-yard line without a power back. Detroit is 3rd in projected points as a team this week. It's go time. 84.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ja'Marr Chase - The WR2 on WR1 usage over the last month, but it's a tough test in San Francisco. Tee Higgins is back here. 83.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Davante Adams - The shoulder injury and backup QB play has caused a dip, but this is a buy low spot. Even with bad circumstances this month, Adams is the WR9 in usage. The Lions secondary is missing two starters in the secondary, including their CB1.
CeeDee Lamb - He'll benefit with the Cowboys stop ranking 26th in red zone TD rate. 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Puka Nacua - The WR8 on WR6 usage this month even with Kupp. A date with the Cowboys is the toughest test yet. 75.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Adam Thielen - He's the WR2 in usage over the last month, and here comes Post Bye Rookie Bump Bryce. 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandon Aiyuk - This assumes Deebo Samuel is out again. Aiyuk has an elite 30% target share with Deebo sidelined this year. 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Waddle - He's the WR24 in usage this month while dealing with back tightness (limited x2). Tyreek and Mostert are also dealing with injuries, so the final report will be key. If Bill Belichick doubles Tyreek, then Waddle has easier paths to a spike week, especially at home. New England is only 25th in passing EPA allowed due to a plethora of injuries. 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Nico Collins - This assumes Robert Woods is out and Tank Dell is in. The Texans have been firing over the middle, where Collins is feasting. Stroud has both OTs ready to go out of the bye week, and Collins is becoming a real No. 1 receiver in year three, as he's 1-of-4 WRs to have a 3.0 yards per route average. Houston is 9th in implied points. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Evans - Tampa's team total sits in the bottom-3 with Baker on the injury report playing on short rest in Buffalo. Evans once again won deep against press man coverage last week, and the Bills' top CBs are injured. The betting markets are the only thing working against him on Thursday Night Football, especially if Chris Godwin isn't himself after missing practice. 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeVonta Smith - He's the WR35 in usage this month, and the Eagles' low-league pass rate inside the 10-yard line will work against Smith always, but this matchup is just so good. Smith had 8 targets (24%) against Washington's No. 28 fantasy WR secondary in Week 4. 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jordan Addison - See QB12 Kirk Cousins, but pay attention to CB1 Jaire Alexander's status (limited-DNP-limited). 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zay Flowers - The Cardinals are 27th against fantasy WRs, while starting a 6th-round rookie CB and Marco Wilson who has allowed the most yards in coverage by close to 100. Flowers is the WR23 in usage over the last month with Lamar heating up. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Terry McLaurin - Philly's DL scares me against Howell, but the secondary has been lit up. The Eagles are 30th against fantasy WRs with CB2 Bradley Roby (DNPx2) and James Bradberry (limited x2) dealing with injuries, which explains why they traded for Pro Bowl S Kevin Byard this week. McLaurin is the WR18 in usage this month, with the Commanders now sitting 6th in neutral pass rate. They're beginning to abandon the run. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jakobi Meyers - The WR14 on WR17 usage this month despite backup QBs in. The Lions secondary is missing starters in the secondary right now and were just exposed by the Ravens last week. Jimmy G should be back.
Michael Pittman - He's the WR20 in usage this season. It's never fun to face CB1 Marshon Lattimore, but the Saints safety play is pretty bad right now, leading to an average ranking in WR fantasy points allowed. This is an okay spot for Pittman, who likely benefits with Minshew at QB. 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Christian Kirk - Since 2022, Kirk is the WR14 in scoring, while running the easier routes underneath. The Steelers moved Pat Peterson into the slot last week for the first time, so they can get impressive rookie CB Joey Porter into the starting lineup. 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DJ Moore - It's unrealistic for Moore to continue the pace of this chart, even if we agree he's a really good player. That said, the Chargers are starting 2 of the bottom 6 PFF grade CBs right now following the JC Jackson trade. 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Drake London - He's the WR20 on WR20 usage this month with Ridder playing better and passing more. London has always been good on tape. He's now getting the volume he deserves with the pass-funnel Titans up next. 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Pickens - He had a 32% target share on 10.2 expected half PPR points last week with Diontae Johnson. He's an improving player working over the middle and the Steelers are using him there more.
DK Metcalf - He was a full participant on Wednesday, but CB1 Denzel Ward is no joke. 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Garrett Wilson - He's the WR28 on WR5 overall usage this month with Zach Wilson showing more aggressiveness. The Giants are starting two rookie CBs on the perimeter, and slot CB Adoree Jackson is having a career-worst season under a man-heavy DC. 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Olave - His target share has dropped from 31% to 21% with Alvin Kamara, but the Saints have been in odd games recently so they've passed enough for Olave to stay in the mix. The Colts don't scare me based on talent, but teams facing Indy run the ball at the 2nd-highest rate in neutral situations. 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Calvin Ridley - We had a lengthy discussion on Stats vs Film. This week, Ridley has better odds of hitting on his "Prayer Targets" against the No. 31 fantasy WR defense. It's possible Ridley sees a lot of rookie CB Joey Porter. Teams like to test rookies, even if they're good. 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Marquise Brown - He's the WR34 on WR10 usage over this month after running bad on downfield targets recently after being fine on them early this year. We're nearing a Kyler Murray return, too. 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Godwin - He was DNP-limited-full with a neck injury. If actually healthy, Godwin is a fine start. He's the WR8 in usage this month and has 2.8 fewer TDs than expected, which makes him the biggest positive regression candidate in that metric. One problem: Tampa is bottom-3 in projected points on short rest. 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gabe Davis - Dog. 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Diontae Johnson - Offenses facing the Jaguars are passing the ball at the highest rate in neutral situations, and their DC said that's intentional. Expect nearly double-digit targets for Johnson, who is off the final injury report.
Courtland Sutton - He has 2.4 more TDs than his usage would expect as a sell high candidate on WR54 usage this month. Sutton is at risk of a potential Russell Wilson benching down the line if he's not traded at the NFL deadline. The Chiefs are 10th against fantasy WRs here. 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tee Higgins - Since 2022, Higgins is the WR37 per game including some of his injured games. This week he's completely off the injury report, as is Burrow. Playing in San Francisco is no joke, however. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tank Dell - It's been a minute, but Dell was averaging 9.0 expected half PPR points in his last 4 healthy games. Now he'll have a chance for 2-WR sets with Robert Woods out. Dell has downfield ability with a QB willing to toss it up. Pick him up off the waiver wire if available. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Christian Watson - He's back to full practices after being a part-time player in games recently. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashee Rice - He ran a route on 65% of dropbacks last week without Justin Watson (full x2), which is enough to get him on the flex radar here. This is a full-blown eruption spot for the passing offense, and Rice is the only young receiver winning on real routes. He'll also dodge CB1 Patrick Surtain by moving in the slot on 59% of his snaps. Denver's CB2 Damarri Mathis is the 2nd worst in PFF coverage grade. 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Downs - A free play resulted in a cheap long TD for Downs, who does work more downfield than most slot-only receivers. He's a good player and now sits as the WR43 in half PPR usage this month. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Thomas - 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amari Cooper - He's the WR58 on WR41 usage this month with Deshaun Watson in-and-out of the lineup. The Browns have the fewest red zone targets in the NFL, and I think the Seahawks secondary is much better with Jamal Adams and Devon Witherspoon in the lineup. 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kendrick Bourne - 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Joshua Palmer (Questionable) - He went DNP-DNP-limited (knee) in practice as a true game-time decision. It'll be Quentin Johnson, 4th-round gadget Derius Davis, and Jalen Guyton behind Keenan if Palmer can't go. I'd expect more 2-TE sets if so.
Josh Reynolds - Goff is the QB1 when kept clean, and the Raiders can't rush the passer even with Maxx Crosby being a total dog. Reynolds can work downfield, while still running more routes (45-of-61) than Jameson Williams (26). 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Romeo Doubs - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandin Cooks - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeAndre Hopkins - I'm not a Will Levis guy, and Treylon Burks is due back.
K.J. Osborn - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DJ Chark - He's the WR49 in usage this month with Carolina leading in pass attempts. We get a Post Bye Rookie Bump Bryce with a new play-caller, too. Chark has some YOLO upside if Thielen can't keep his early-season pace. Jonathan Mingo hasn't been able to win many reps to date. 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Curtis Samuel - He's been DNP-limited-limited (foot).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - He's back to a part-time role with Metcalf expected back, and I'm waiting for JSN to make a real play on tape. His TD last week was a busted quarters coverage look. In fact, the rookie is the WR66 in yards per route run (1.1) and the WR82 in PFF grade out of 95 qualifiers. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Quentin Johnston - This assumes Josh Palmer is limited. If he misses, the only other WR to run a route aside from Keenan and QJ is 4th-round rookie Derius Davis (5'8"-165). Johnston would have to get looks. As a reminder, the Chargers project for the 2nd most points this week.
Rashid Shaheed - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jauan Jennings - This assumes no Deebo Samuel. He had a season-high 9.4 expected half PPR points last week while moving into a near full-time role.
Jahan Dotson - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Elijah Moore - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jayden Reed - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Odell Beckham - He ran a route on 24-of-36 dropbacks last week. 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jameson Williams - See WR46 Josh Reynolds. 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tutu Atwell - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Boyd - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Gallup - He's not making some plays!
Jalin Hyatt - He's making some plays!
Allen Lazard - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Wilson - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darius Slayton - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kadarius Toney - Routes decreased with Mecole.
Rondale Moore - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Travis Kelce - He posted a 9-for-9, 124-yard game against Denver to begin this streak of 28-straight completions. NextGenStats says there was a 1-in-3000 chance of that happening. 77.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mark Andrews - Owner of a 23% target share on a team projected for the 5th-most points. Andrews' current catch rate is the highest of his career, too. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Sam LaPorta - He's the rookie TE3 all time through the first 7 games of a career. This week, Detroit is projected for 26.75 points (4th best). 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson - He's averaging 10.7 expected half PPR points without Justin Jefferson. Last year against the 2-high shell Packers, Hockenson had a wild 39% target share leading to 12 targets. That of course was with Jefferson. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle - He's the TE7 on TE19 usage this season, with a monster 3-TD game boosting his season. Kittle's target share has been 21% with and without Deebo Samuel on the field this year. In fact, the primary beneficiary of Deebo's injuries has been Jauan Jennings (9% to 21% targets). 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dallas Goedert - He's the TE6 on TE12 usage this season, elevating to the TE8 in usage over the last month. The Commanders have allowed 10+ half PPR points to Cole Kmet (12.7), Kyle Pitts (12.3), Jonnu Smith (11.6), and Darren Waller (19.3) in the last 3 games. 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Kincaid - He had a season-high 10.4 expected half PPR points last week, which only would trail Kelce, Hockenson, and Andrews on the season. Kincaid is a candidate to jump from 60% routes to 90% routes with Dawson Knox (wrist) out. If his 16% targets per route rate and Josh Allen's 37 dropbacks per game continue, then Kincaid would hover around 5-7 targets in an offense projected for 25.5 points this week. On top of that, the Bucs are a pass funnel. 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kyle Pitts - 29% of his targets have been "contested" per PFF, the highest among TEs. It's what happens when a TE is treated as a WR, and Pitts is exactly that. His 11.4 average depth of target is by far the highest of the position, so he's more boom-bust by default (not to mention Ridder's inaccuracies). That said, Pitts is the TE7 in routes and TE8 in expected half PPR points, with the talent to break off long scores. It helps that the Falcons face the pass-funnel Titans, who just traded stud S Kevin Byard this week. 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darren Waller (Questionable) - He has at least 10.3 expected half PPR points in 3-straight games, with a first-read target rate of 42%, 29%, and 33% per Fantasy Points' Graham Barfield. All of his target last week came on different types of routes, which seemed encouraging. New York is projected for the 2nd-fewest points this week, however, and Waller is back on the injury report with three limited practices (hamstring).
Evan Engram - He's had between 5.4 and 9.0 expected half PPR points in every game, despite the Jaguars sitting 30th in red zone targets per game right now. He's been a beneficiary of Zay Jones' absence. The Steelers have allowed just 36 yards per game to TEs this year (3rd fewest). 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz - Houston is 9th in projected points, and Schultz is the TE3 on TE3 usage over the last month while operating as a safety net underneath. He's played less inline snaps since both starting OTs have returned, too. 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jake Ferguson - He's the TE11 in targets per game and TE1 in inside the 10-yard line targets per game this season, but Ferguson somehow has nothing to show for it. Dallas projects for the 6th-most points this week as a TD-or-bust candidate against a Rams defense that's 7th-worst against fantasy TEs. 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trey McBride - The former 2nd-rounder had a season-high 6.7 expected half PPR points with Zach Ertz (IR) injured last week, and there's nothing preventing him from top-10 routes moving forward. McBride happens to be the TE3 in yards per route run in a backup capacity this year, too. I haven't seen much on tape from him, but fantasy is a game of volume. He's averaged 40 yards in his 5 games with 80% or more snaps. 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonnu Smith - He's the TE11 in usage and TE16 in routes over the last month, as the traditional TE in the Falcon's offense. 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
David Njoku - He had a season-high 14.7 expected half PPR points in Week 7 with P.J. Walker, but Njoku didn't do much with it. It'd help if Njoku's average depth of target wasn't 3.6 yards downfield this year. I don't get it. He was a DNP (knee) on Wednesday. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gerald Everett (Questionable) - He's had 8.4 and 8.7 expected half PPR points without Mike Williams. Is that a trend? Perhaps! The primary difference has been seeing 3 inside the 10-yard line targets in the last two weeks. It's good timing with the Chargers projected for the 2nd-most points on the week, if he's available. He's been DNP-limited-full (hip) in practice.
Taysom Hill - He's averaged 26 routes without Juwan Johnson and 8 with him. He's averaged 5 carries without Alvin Kamara and 3 with him. Both Johnson and Kamara are expected to play here, so Hill's package is likely to suffer some shrinkage.
Cole Kmet - His expected half PPR points have dropped from 8.6 to 2.6 without Justin Fields. The split won't be that drastic as the Bears won't be running as much as they did with a lead last week, but it's worth monitoring. 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Logan Thomas - His route share dropped to 62% last week, which won't cut it in this offense. Thomas is just the TE15 in usage over the last month after running hot early. A date with the Eagles concerns me with Howell's insane sack rate. 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Donald Parham - He'd get a big boost if Palmer is out.
Hunter Henry - He's been slowed by an ankle injury recently.
Luke Musgrave - He went DNP-DNP-limited (ankle) in practice.
Michael Mayer - He dropped back to 52% routes last week. What are we doing, Raiders?
Tyler Higbee - He's down to 4.1 expected half PPR points with Kupp. 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The fantasy football defenses of Week 8 are the Jets (@ NYG), Eagles (@ WAS), Falcons (@ TEN), Chargers (vs. CHI), Seahawks (vs. CLE), Ravens (@ ARI), Bills (vs. TB), and Chiefs (@ DEN).
Jk. I'm not a virgin.
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.