NFL Week 8 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
What's going on fellow readers??? I'm surprised anyone knows how to read still, but I'm thankful for all the people who reached out about The Blueprint over the last couple weeks. I took them off to welcome in Baby Kelly aka Dontayvion Winks and now plan on slowly ramping up work over the next month. I won't write as many notes as previously and may focus on the positions I'm podcasting about that week. I think that'll be WR Rankings first. Thanks for your patience!
Week 7 Fantasy Football Recap Notes
Week 8 RB Rankings
Breece Hall - 111.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Saquon Barkley - 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot.
Derrick Henry - 100.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jordan Mason - 92.5 total yards in Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot.
Kenneth Walker - 90.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Joe Mixon - 97.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kyren Williams - 92.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bijan Robinson - 90.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Aaron Jones - 100.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Vikings are projected for the 4th-most points.
Josh Jacobs - 86.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Packers are projected for the 2nd-most points.
De'Von Achane - 90.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 90.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kareem Hunt - 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.
James Conner - 85.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Alvin Kamara - 86.5 total yards in Pick'em.
J.K. Dobbins - 98.5 total yards in Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot.
D'Andre Swift - 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bears are 3rd in neutral run rate this month.
Javonte Williams - 85.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Broncos are 6th in projected points.
This is an eruption spot.
Jonathan Taylor - 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Brian Robinson
David Montgomery - 68.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tony Pollard - 79.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tyjae Spears (hamstring, limited) has a chance to play. He's the RB17 on RB11 usage this month without him.
Chuba Hubbard - 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Najee Harris - 77.5 total yards in Pick'em.
James Cook - 79.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB29 on RB32 usage this month with Ray Davis mixing in a bit more.
Chase Brown - 68.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tank Bigsby
This assumes Travis Etienne (hamstring, limited) is out.
Rachaad White - 63.5 total yards in Pick'em.
This assumes Bucky Irving (toe) is playing through his injury. He's questionable.
Rico Dowdle - 61.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Nick Chubb - 60.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Rhamondre Stevenson - 66.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Alexander Mattison - 59.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Raheem Mostert - 42.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He saw the lone goal-line opportunity last week.
Tyrone Tracy
Devin Singletary
Bucky Irving (Questionable)
He was DNP-DNP-limited (toe) in practice with a lingering injury but he's expected to play through it, using the 3-RB committee to limited his touches.
Austin Ekeler
Tyler Allgeier - 44.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Zack Moss
Jaylen Warren
Justice Hill
Ray Davis
Zach Charbonnet
Sean Tucker
Antonio Gibson
Roschon Johnson
Kimani Vidal
Jaleel McLaughlin
Braelon Allen
Week 8 WR Rankings
Justin Jefferson - 81.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Vikings are 4th in projected points vs. the Rams.
CeeDee Lamb - 80.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Classic matchup with the 49ers coming off bye.
Ja'Marr Chase - 75.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bengals are 9th in projected points.
A.J. Brown - 74.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyreek Hill (Questionable) - 87.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Dolphins are 10th in projected points.
The Cardinals are 32nd in passing success allowed.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 72.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions project for the most points of the week.
Cooper Kupp - 72.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was fully participating in practice.
The Vikings are 6th in passing success allowed, but they've allowed the most fantasy points to WRs, including major games rpm slot-featured WRs like Jayden Reed (23.6 half PPR), Garrett Wilson (22.6), Amon-Ra (21.2), Stefon Diggs (14.4), and Deebo Samuel (14.0).
Malik Nabers - 69.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Giants project for the fewest points of the week, but he's the entire offense and can be manufactured touches even when the offense is broken without LT Andrew Thomas.
Nabers is the WR19 on WR3 overall usage this month.
Drake London - 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's been the WR3 on WR2 overall usage this month.
The Bucs are 28th in passing success allowed and just placed CB Jamel Dean (hamstring) on IR.
Deebo Samuel (Questionable)
He didn't practice on Wednesday, but Kyle Shanahan implied he's doing better and has a chance to play on Sunday. He was limited the final two practices and may have to be on a snap count as he catches his breath.
The 49ers are 7th in projected points.
Cowboys are missing EDGEs Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Marshawn Kneeland. CB DaRon Bland is also not practicing.
Jayden Reed - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Packers are 2nd in projected points.
The Jaguars are last in passing EPA allowed. This is an eruption spot.
Stefon Diggs - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Texans are 5th in projected points at home versus a bad Colts defense.
He's the WR17 on WR24 usage this month but should project better without Nico Collins over a bigger sample.
Davante Adams - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Patriots are 30th in passing success allowed.
George Pickens - 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Russell Wilson literally throws the ball higher in the air, allowing Pickens to make plays at the catch point, especially off of play action. Pickens had a season-high in usage in his first game with the veteran QB. Over the last month, Pickens is the WR26 on WR4 overall usage. Welcome to the Boom-Bust WR2 tier.
Giants EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux is on IR.
Brian Thomas - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR6 on WR21 usage this month, firmly establishing himself as one of the better receivers in the NFL as a rookie. He can win downfield with his speed, but he's also getting screens and sweeps now.
Amari Cooper - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bills are 9th in projected points.
Terry McLaurin - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bears are 2nd in passing success allowed.
He's the WR8 on WR14 usage this month, and he even got it done with Marcus Mariota.
Garrett Wilson - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
His expected half PPR points: Weeks 1-6 (16.6), Week 7 with Davante Adams (9.9). The latter is equivalent to WR32 usage.
The Patriots are 30th in passing success allowed.
Chris Olave - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chargers have allowed an NFL-low 49 receptions to WRs this season. For reference, Chris Godwin has more receptions than that by himself. Some of this is because of schedule, but some of this is because of their new scheme and super slow-paced offense.
Jaylen Waddle (Questionable) - 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Dolphins are 10th in projected points.
The Cardinals are 32nd in passing success allowed.
DJ Moore - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's averaging 11.0 half PPR points on 10.2 expected half PPR points in games with a healthy Keenan Allen. It's getting a little worrisome that the Bears are 30th in neutral pass rate this month.
The Commanders are 29th in passing success allowed and just placed stud DT Jonathan Allen on IR.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DK Metcalf (knee) is likely out, and the Seahawks are 1st in WR usage this month. The opportunity for a huge game sits right in front of JSN. We just don't know if he's capable of hitting that ceiling reliably. Even with Metcalf in the lineup, JSN is the WR47 on WR12 (TWELVE) usage this month. He's a positive regression candidate.
The Bills run a 2-high shell defense, allowing underneath receivers to pick up "free" receptions underneath. That's where JSN is at his best traditionally.
Tank Dell - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Texans are 5th in projected points.
Tyler Lockett - 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR32 on WR18 usage this month, even with DK Metcalf playing.
DeAndre Hopkins
Not expecting a full-time role with the trade not being finalized until Wednesday.
The Chiefs are 7th in projected points.
Marvin Harrison - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He'll face CB Jalen Ramsey on the outside.
DeVonta Smith - 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darnell Mooney - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR20 on WR11 usage this month with the Falcons being 5th in neutral pass rate.
The Bucs are 28th in passing success allowed and just placed CB Jamel Dean (hamstring) on IR.
Xavier Worthy - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Chiefs are 7th in projected points.
He's had 11.0 and 13.5 expected half PPR points in his two games without Rashee Rice. He was missed on a long TD from Patrick Mahomes and hasn't scored a TD in a bit on the manufactured touches, but those still exist. His 36% first-read target share is promising, even if he'll be more boom-bust than we hoped. He's the WR33 on WR36 usage this month. Those numbers are trending upwards due to the injuries around him.
Romeo Doubs - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Packers are 2nd in projected points.
The Jaguars are last in passing EPA allowed. This is an eruption spot.
He's averaging 11.2 half PPR points on 11.0 expected half PPR points in games with Jordan Love. This month, he's the WR14 on WR23 usage.
Courtland Sutton - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Broncos are 6th in projected points.
The Panthers are 31st in passing success allowed.
Zay Flowers (Questionable)
He was DNP-DNP-limited (ankle) in practice and may not be himself this week.
The Ravens are 3rd in projected points, but Flowers will see some CB Denzel Ward in coverage.
Calvin Ridley - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeAndre Hopkins (Chiefs) and Treylon Burks (IR) aren't playing.
The Titans are 11-point dogs, so game script will be elite.
Jordan Addison - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Vikings are 4th in projected points.
He's the WR22 on WR51 usage this month.
Puka Nacua (Questionable) - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was limited in practice this week and surprisingly has a chance to play. NFL Network's Tom Pelissero noted he may not be ready for "70 snaps" but neither are the players ranked lower than this. It's notable that Jordan Whittington is out.
Keenan Allen - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Commanders are 29th in passing success allowed.
He's the WR42 on WR52 usage this month.
Ladd McConkey (Questionable) - 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was DNP-DNP-limited (hip) in practice. Quentin Johnson is doubtful.
The Saints are missing Paulson Adebo (leg).
He's the WR37 on WR31 usage this month. He impressed me with two isolated man coverage wins in 2-WR sets last week. That's the Post Bye Rookie Bump usage we're looking for.
Jakobi Meyers (Questionable) - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was a full participant (ankle) on Friday and steps into a great spot as a home dog without Davante Adams.
Ricky Pearsall
This assumes Deebo Samuel is in and Jauan Jennings is out.
DeMario Douglas - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's off the injury report after losing snaps with an illness last week. Ja'Lynn Polk (concussion) also didn't practice.
The Jets are 4th in passing success allowed.
Khalil Shakir - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bills are 9th in projected points.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR35 on WR9 overall usage this month as a literal PPR scam. He is one of the only receivers to have a negative EPA per target this year, but the Giants frequently target him on 3rd-and-long for 8-yard gains. We'll take the points.
Dontayvion Wicks - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Packers are 2nd in projected points.
The Jaguars are last in passing EPA allowed. This is an eruption spot.
He's averaging 9.4 half PPR points on 10.2 expected half PPR points in games with Jordan Love. Those are solid WR3/flex numbers even if he's splitting snaps with Christian Watson as the primary deep threats. Wicks would've had much bigger games already if he didn't drop some passes.
Joshua Palmer - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Xavier Legette - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Diontae Johnson (ribs) is out, as is Andy Dalton. This is going to be a long game for the Panthers vs. the Broncos and Pat Surtain. But Legette is the last man standing and will be targetted often.
Michael Pittman (Questionable) - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DNP Wednesday (back).
He'll see some CB Derek Stingley on the perimeter.
Christian Watson - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Packers are 2nd in projected points.
The Jaguars are last in passing EPA allowed. This is an eruption spot.
Josh Downs (Questionable) - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DNP Wednesday (groin).
Jerry Jeudy - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cedric Tillman - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Keon Coleman - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bills are 9th in projected points.
He's the WR41 on WR50 usage this month and could lose some snaps with Amari Cooper trending towards 100% snaps this week.
Christian Kirk - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
His expected half PPR points drop from 10.2 without Evan Engram down to 7.2 with the underneath target in the lineup. These splits existed last year, too, and they make sense schematically.
Rashod Bateman
The Ravens are 3rd in projected points.
He's the WR23 on WR66 usage this month.
Rome Odunze - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Commanders are 29th in passing success allowed.
Jalen Tolbert - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's been the WR38 on WR45 usage this month as the clear WR2 without Brandin Cooks.
Tim Patrick - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions project for the most points of the week.
Mike Williams
Allen Lazard (chest) hasn't practiced this week.
Tutu Atwell - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trey Palmer - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
We discussed the Buccaneers options on Stats vs. Film.
Jalen McMillan - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He had a season-high 12.3 expected half PPR points last week with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans leaving the game. The problem is he just might not be very good. His tape this entire season has been underwhelming, largely because he's a forgettable athlete with a smaller frame. He's best in the slot on underneath routes. Trey Palmer has more juice.
Kalif Raymond
Gabe Davis
Michael Wilson
Troy Franklin - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Panthers are 31st in passing success allowed.
Elijah Moore - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jalen Nailor - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jake Bobo
Sterling Shepard
Demarcus Robinson - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Noah Brown
Week 8 QB Rankings
Lamar Jackson - Ravens (26.25 points, -8.5 spread) vs. CLE
Jalen Hurts - Eagles (23.0, +2.0) vs. CIN
Josh Allen - Bills (25.0, -3.0) vs. SEA
Jordan Love - Packers (26.75, -4.0) vs. JAX
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs (25.5, -9.5) vs. LV
Sam Darnold - Vikings (25.75, -3.0) vs. LAR
C.J. Stroud - Texans (25.75, -3.0) vs. IND
Joe Burrow - Bengals (25.0, -2.0) vs. PHI
This assumes Tee Higgins is out.
Caleb Williams - Bears (23.0, -2.5) vs. WAS
Jayden Daniels - Commanders (20.5, +2.5) vs. CHI
He's expected to play after DNP-DNP-limited practices with a rib cartilage injury. These aren't broken ribs, but rather discomfort in the tissue underneath them. He'll likely get a pain injection and play injured. There is a chance that his throwing and/or rushing are slightly compromised. For reference, Justin Herbert seemed quite in pain during his rib cartilage injury in 2022 (and he had 10 days between games). The floor is lower than normal for Jayden. The ceiling is just as high. It's worth noting the Bears defense is one of the very best.
Bo Nix - Broncos (25.75, -10.0) vs. CAR
Kyler Murray - Cardinals (21.5, +3.5) vs. MIA
Brock Purdy - 49ers (25.5, -4.0) vs. DAL
Jared Goff - Lions (27.75, -10.5) vs. TEN
Matthew Stafford - Rams (22.75, +3.0) vs. MIN
Geno Smith - Seahawks (22.0, +3.0) vs. BUF
Anthony Richardson - Colts (20.75, +5.0) vs. HOU
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins (25.0, -3.5) vs. ARI
Dak Prescott - Cowboys (21.5, +4.0) vs. SF
Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars (22.75, +4.0) vs. GB
Kirk Cousins - Falcons (23.75, -1.5) vs. TB
Aaron Rodgers - Jets (24.0, -7.0) vs. NE
Baker Mayfield - Bucs (22.25, +1.5) vs. ATL
Justin Herbert - Chargers (24.25, -7.5) vs. NO
Russell Wilson - Steelers (21.5, +4.0) vs. NYG
Jameis Winston - Browns (17.75, +8.5) vs. BAL
Drake Maye - Patriots (17.0, +7.0) vs. NYJ
Daniel Jones - Giants (15.0, +6.5) vs. PIT
Spencer Rattler - Saints (16.75, +7.5) vs. LAC
Mason Rudolph - Titans (17.25, +10.5) vs. DET
Gardner Minshew - Raiders (16.0, +9.5) vs. KC
Bryce Young - Panthers (15.75, +10.0) vs. DEN
Week 8 TE Rankings
Travis Kelce - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
David Njoku - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brock Bowers - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trey McBride - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle (Questionable) - 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was DNP-limited-limited (foot) in practice. This assumes Deebo Samuel plays.
Evan Engram - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's limited with a hamstring injury.
Cade Otton - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the TE9 on TE6 usage this month, even before Mike Evans' and Chris Godwin's injuries last week.
Jake Ferguson - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kyle Pitts - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Sam LaPorta - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tucker Kraft - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Kincaid - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Hunter Henry - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mark Andrews
Cole Kmet - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Noah Fant - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Pat Freiermuth - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Taysom Hill
Isaiah Likely
Will Dissly (Questionable)
Balled out without Hayden Hurst (DNP) last week.
Zach Ertz - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Colby Parkinson - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonnu Smith
Tyler Conklin
Juwan Johnson
Chig Okonkwo
Noah Gray
Mike Gesicki
Ja'Tavion Sanders
Week 8 Defenses For Sickos
My analysis on this is here. Peep the timestamps: