Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 1 RB Rankings
Saquon Barkley - 16.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot.
The Eagles project for the most points of the week (27.5). Saquon averaged 146 total yards in 13 regular season wins last year, including 169 and 78 total-yard outings vs. Dallas in 41-7 and 34-6 blowout wins.
The Cowboys traded away Micah Parsons because their run defense is so bad on paper that they wanted a DT instead. Let's see if DT Kenny Clark is ready one week ahead of the season. From Bill Barnwell: "Over the last four years, the Cowboys are the league's best defense with Micah Parsons on the field by EPA per play. Across a 1,039-play sample, they're the league's second-worst defense over that same stretch by EPA per play when Parsons isn't on the field."
Bijan Robinson - 16.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
This is a rough matchup with the Buccaneers, who were 7th-best against fantasy RBs last year. It's also the first game without C Drew Dalman (Bears) and RT Kaleb McGary (IR), meaning a new center will be facing DT Vita Vea. Bijan was the RB4 on RB4 usage last year, so there's room for a dock in projected efficiency here and to be a locked-in elite RB1.
De'Von Achane - 16.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's practicing after a minor calf strain in camp. This assumes he is at near full strength with elevated re-injury risk, and 7th-round rookie Ollie Gordon is operating as the backup.
Achane averaged 19.3 half PPR points on 6.1 grabs in 11 Tua Tagovailoa games, which would've made him the RB4 last year. The difference right now is the Dolphins are middle of the pack in projected points this week.
Derrick Henry - 14.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Ravens project for the 8th-most points of the week (24.5). The Big Dog had 84 yards and a score against the Bills in their playoff loss last year. Baltimore is a rare underdog here (2.5 points on the road). For context, Henry averaged 70 rushing yards on 15 carries in 5 losses last year compared to 131 rushing yards on 21 carries in 12 wins. Expect him to finish between that in a projected close game.
Josh Jacobs - 14.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
While the Lions defense is good against fantasy RBs, Jacobs did get them for 108 scoreless yards and then 66 yards with 3 rushing scores in their matchups last year. Expect Lambaugh to be rocking against a rival with the juice of the Micah Parsons trade pulsing through the Packers' bodies. Okay, that's a bit dramatic.
The Packers project for the 5th-most points of the week (25.0), and Jacobs had the most rushing TDs inside the 10-yard line last year. He was the RB4 from Week 7 on with Jordan Love in the lineup, averaging 19.0 half PPR points per game.
Christian McCaffrey - 94.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
His last 20 games as a healthy 49er: 22.0 half PPR points per game.
The 49ers project for the 14th-most points of the week (23.0), which is a lot lower than their season-long projections. The Seahawks defense was 6th in EPA and success rate allowed after their Week 10 bye last year and are widely-viewed as a top-5 defense this year after adding DE Demarcus Lawrence this offseason.
Update: Christian McCaffrey (calf) went from full to limited to DNP in practice. That's a trend that typically leads to an out distinction, but the 49ers have him questionable. Speaking after practice, CMC said he "feels great" and held himself out of practice out of caution, something the team has told him to do as he can be his own worst enemy by playing through ailments he shouldn't. My "expert" analysis is this can go either way but am guessing he is going to play after he warmed up with the team and met with reporters on Friday. Even if he does, this is a calf injury that obviously lingers and is bad news for his odds of making it through the season. When he's available, he'll have the highest Pick'em projection, but who knows how long it'll last. For now, the Underdog ops team is leaving CMC's projections nearly the exact same as before the injury news. If you think this is bad bad bad, then lowers are your hedge.
Update: All signs point to Christian McCaffrey playing. I've lowered his ranking with increased injury risk, but he went through walk through, the national reporters don't seem too spooked, and CMC is uniquely positioned to take him out of practice out of caution and then be okay. They want him to be conservative in practice. Like mentioned before, this is a difficult matchup on top of the injury news, but also like mentioned before he was the RB1 overall in projected points this week before this calf setback.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 14.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Lions project for the 17th-most points of the week (22.5), which is 10 points fewer than they averaged last year (33.0). In 7 games when the Lions scored under 30 points, Gibbs averaged 14.9 half PPR points. That was 24.1 half PPR points in the 11 games when they scored over 30 points.
Bucky Irving - 15.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bucs project for the 8th-most points of the week (24.5), despite having elite LT Tristan Wirfs on the sideline. It won't be surprising if Irving's efficiency dips down without him and elite play-caller Liam Coen, but Irving can catch passes in the wake of Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton injuries. Irving's short- and long-term value will be reliant on just how many snaps he plays. Irving averaged 19.6 opportunities in the 5 games before starting the final 3 games of the year, leading to 21.3 opportunities.
The Falcons lost DT Grady Jarrett and drafted two undersized EDGEs in Round 1. They should be vulnerable on the ground.
Jonathan Taylor - 15.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Colts project for the 12th-most points of the week (24.25). In his 14 games with Shane Steichen when the Colts scored somewhere in the 20s, Taylor averaged 15.1 half PPR points on 18.9 carries. The main difference is the Colts are now without C Ryan Kelly and RG Will Fries.
The Dolphins will be one of the biggest pass funnels based on their personnel. Their edge rushers are amazing and they added 331-pound NT Kenneth Grant in Round 1, while watching their top secondary options leave this offseason.
Chase Brown - 14.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bengals project for the 2nd-most points of the week (26.5) and are 5.5-point favorites vs. the Browns. In his 5 wins without Zach Moss last year, Brown averaged 18.8 half PPR points on 20.8 carries. That's probably the max for him now that Samaje Perine is around to spell him.
James Conner - 13.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot per the chart.
The Cardinals project for the 8th-most points of the week (24.5) as 6.5-point favorites versus the Saints. Conner averaged 116 total yards on 20.8 opportunities in 7 wins last year, compared to 77 total yards and 15.3 opportunities in 9 losses. That's 18.0 half PPR points in 11 wins under HC Jonathon Gannon, too.
Last year's RB13 on RB15 usage, and the offense has both OTs healthy now after they combined for just 20 games last year.
Ashton Jeanty - 13.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Raiders project for the 6th-fewest points of the week (20.5) in an early east coast start for the west coast elites, but Jeanty basically didn't leave the field with the 1st-team offense throughout the preseason.
The Patriots defense added coach Mike Vrabel, DT Milton Williams, LB Robert Spillane, and other starters this offseason, so beware using last year's stats for this year's projections.
Alvin Kamara - 15.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Last year, Kamara was the RB1 overall through September. He starts out a lot better than he finishes, at least looking at previous game logs.
The Saints project for the 3rd-fewest points of the week (18.0), and it's unclear if he'll be the goal-line back ahead of Kendre Miller with a new coaching staff. The good news for Kamara is Kellen Moore has been top-10 in pace in every year he's been coordinating offense in the NFL, and the Saints OL looks better than it did last year with 9th-overall pick LT Kelvin Banks looking good in camp and preseason. In 9 losses last year, Kamara averaged 14.9 half PPR points despite the team scoring only 16.5 points in them, thanks to scamming 5.2 receptions.
The Cardinals look a lot better on defense this year.
Kenneth Walker III - 12.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He missed practices while managing a foot injury in training camp, but he was never out long term, signaling that this was just maintenance to get ready for the season. I'm not making any injury adjustments for now.
Walker was the RB14 on RB12 usage last year in half PPR but even flashed receiving chops, too. Those may come in handy as 2.5-point home dogs against the 49ers. The Seahawks project for the 6th-fewest points of the week (20.5), so his projected touchdowns and carries are a bit lower than normal.
I'm excited to watch 1st-round LG Grey Zabel and the return of RT Abe Lucas in this new zone scheme. They dominated in the preseason, and Walker has never had positive blocking in front of him in his young NFL career. Despite that, he led the NFL in forced missed tackles per carry. Insane accomplishment. There should be multiple long touchdown runs this year.
Kyren Williams - 13.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Rams expect to start Matthew Stafford and LT Alaric Jackson. That's big news, as Kyren's yards per carry dropped to 3.5 when Jackson hasn't been on the field over the past two years. It's 4.6 YPC over that time span in general. I do expect Kyren's snap counts to drop from 87% with Blake Corum and 4th-round rookie Jarquez Hunter performing well in the preseason, however. Sean McVay has hinted at that this offseason, probably after watching Williams' efficiency drop on a too-heavy workload.
The Texans were the 3rd-best defense against fantasy RBs.
Chuba Hubbard - 11.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
In 4 wins, Hubbard averaged 22.3 carries. In 6 losses by 15+ points, that dropped to 12.0 carries.
This is expected to be a close game, with the Jaguars favored by 3.5 points in Jacksonville. That defense allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs last year, so this is generally a good matchup. I expect the Panthers to try to establish the run instead of letting the Jaguars' elite edge duo wreck a backup left tackle. Icky Ekwonu (appendix) is at best questionable to play.
Tony Pollard - 12.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
No Tyjae Spears (IR). In 5 games without him last year, Pollard averaged 24.2 touches per game on 85% snaps. With the OL and QB looking much better this year, hopefully that means a lot more than 12.8 half PPR points per game.
The Titans project for the fewest points of the week (17.5). Offenses playing in Denver in September have averaged 15.1 points across 9 games since 2020. This defense is stacked, and the altitude during the summer weather is a lot to deal with for visiting teams. It's expected to be 81 degrees a mile up in the air.
James Cook - 11.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bills project for the 3rd-most points of the week (26.0), but the Ravens are a very difficult defense. They allowed the 3rd-fewest RB carries and 4th-fewest fantasy points last year and might be better this year on paper after adding CB Jaire Alexander (questionable) plus two top-20 consensus draft prospects at FS and EDGE.
He'll be fighting regression this year after scoring multiple 40+ yard touchdowns last year -- TDs from 65, 49, 46, and 41 yards out to be exact -- but the entire OL returns and no Khalil Shakir (ankle) could mean some manufactured receptions trickle down to him. Cook was half PPR's RB9 on RB20 last year.
D'Andre Swift - 9.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bears listed Roschon Johnson (foot) as a DNP and 7th-round rookie Kyle Monangai (hamstring) as limited. If it's just Swift and a rookie coming off injury who also got exposed in pass protection, then Swift is looking like a bellcow in the season opener. He'd be in line to buck this trend: In Swift's last 10 games with OC Ben Johnson on the Lions, he averaged 10.8 half PPR points on 37% snaps, while the offense scored 28.0 points per game. The Bears only project for 21.0 points this week, but it's hard to see him playing that few of snaps given the depth on the roster.
The Vikings were 8th-best against fantasy RBs last year and added DT Jonathan Allen this offseason.
Travis Etienne - 9.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot if he can get the volume. Nobody has a solid report, but coach Liam Coen praised Travis Etienne's work ethic and ability to line up in all situations yesterday. Their beat reporters are speculating that one of the rookie picks will be a healthy scratch, so Etienne could be in a great spot as the best all-around back on the team right now. We'll see if Tank Bigsby gets goal line carries as the best power rusher, but even if that's true, Etienne should be in line for more explosives and receptions this year. That's Coen's wheelhouse. Watch the video below.
Update: My guy John Shipley predicts Travis Etienne as the main RB this week because the Panthers struggle defending the pass, and Etienne is the best they have to exploit that. All checks out to me!
The Jaguars project for the 5th-most points of the week (25.0) as 3-point home favorites to the Panthers, who easily were the worst rushing EPA defense and fantasy RB defense last year. It won't be as bad this year after adding multiple starters up front, but Carolina allowed 28.0 half PPR points to RBs last year. The second worst defense was at 24.2. Huge gap.
Breece Hall - 11.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Braelon Allen subbed in for short-yardage opportunities in preseason action. Hall might be forced into a pass-game and explosive-runs role, while projecting for fewer scores than the rest of the fantasy RB2 range. He averaged 10.4 half PPR points on 62% snaps in his final 5 games once Allen was actually mixed in last year. The Jets were scoring 21.6 points in those contests, too. This week...
The Jets project for the 2nd-fewest points of the week (17.75) as hosts to the Steelers, and now stud RG Alijah Vera-Tucker is out long term with an arm injury. Brutal.
Omarion Hampton - 9.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Najee Harris (eyeball) is expected to play. It's unclear in what capacity, other than Omarion Hampton is the starter. Harris playing in a 5-touch role from the jump would make sense as he gets back into football shape. Hampton should see 14+ touches here.
The Chiefs allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs last year (14.4 HPPR). For reference, the league median was 20.0, so that's a big difference.
Aaron Jones - 10.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Vikings' neutral pass rate is about to get more balanced this offseason. That's what JJ McCarthy was used to in college and matches the personnel changes the team made when they signed/drafted an entirely new interior offensive line after adding thumping RB Jordan Mason via trade. That's both good and bad news for Jones. The good news is he'll be more efficient with his touches. The bad news is Mason profiles for the majority of goal-line looks and the 4-minute drill when they've established a lead.
Facing the Bears on the road makes this a neutral situation; 1.5-point favorites on an average 22.5 point total.
TreVeyon Henderson - 10.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Like just about every non-1st-round rookie, expect Henderson's December numbers to be better than his September numbers. He will need some explosives to make up for the potential goal-line vulturing of Rhamondre Stevenson, who has a good 20 pounds on him.
Hosting the Raiders is as clean of a matchup as it gets. They lost DT Christian Wilkins, S Trevon Moehrig, LB Robert Spillane, SCB Nate Hobbs, and LB Divine Deablo this offseason. It's one of the worst front sevens in the NFL.
Update: The field will be pretty damn wet because of #rain. I'm making minor adjustments for the pass game.
Isiah Pacheco - 10.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He only averaged 36% snaps after returning from a *checks notes* broken leg last year. His numbers were bad, as expected. He broke his damn leg as a reminder! So let's rewind the clock to see if there is a path to real upside. In the 17 games before that broken leg, Pacheco averaged 14.7 half PPR points on 68% snaps. We'll learn a lot more on how much the Chiefs want to use him versus Kareem Hunt and 7th-round rookie Brashard Smith. I'm guessing Pacheco lives in the 50-70% range as a low-end RB2.
The Chiefs project for the 11th-most points of the week (24.5) against a Chargers defense that was 5th-best against fantasy RBs last year. DC Jesse Minter is the truth.
J.K. Dobbins - 9.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Broncos project for the 5th-most points of the week (25.0) and are 7.5-point home favorites. This is RB game script, and Dobbins might be the more trusted rusher to close the game out. RJ Harvey is a real threat on early downs and in the manufactured reception department, but he is working through a scheme change, vision issues, and pass protection right now. Dobbins is also heavier (212 vs. 205 pounds), so he gets the nod at the goal line early in the year most likely. I'm leaning into the veteran early until we gather more information.
Jaylen Warren - 10.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Mike Tomlin on Jaylen Warren this Tuesday, "His progress has been very evident and he's to be congratulated ... Certainly he'll be our featured runner. Certainly you'll see [Kaleb Johnson/Kenneth Gainwell], but at what time and at what degree [will depend week-to-week]." That said, Warren has never passed 15 carries in a game and has been in a committee for years.
He signed a two-year contract extension through 2027 to be a legit committee member. Warren is expected to at least handle the passing downs, with Kaleb Johnson profiling as an outside zone rusher who has more size in short-yardage situations. Through the preseason, Warren has been ahead of Johnson in drills and 1st-team snaps. He deserves a higher ranking than the 3rd-round rookie until proven otherwise. The question is if it's too much of an even split to overcome the lackluster play and point projections from Pittsburgh. The Steelers project for the 7th-fewest points of the week (20.75).
Austin Ekeler - 7.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Commanders project for the 4th-most points of the week (25.75) and are 6-point favorites vs. the Giants. Ekeler only averaged 2.3 receptions in 7 wins last year, so game script ironically works against him unless he's given 4-minute drill touches without Brian Robinson Jr. available. Expect those grinder touches to be split between Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, and Bill Croskey-Merritt. It's not a great situation until we get clarity.
Rhamondre Stevenson - 9.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
It's Week 1 with a rookie competing for touches, and the Patriots are 2.5-point home favorites. If not now, then when? The Raiders lost DT Christian Wilkins, S Trevon Moehrig, LB Robert Spillane, SCB Nate Hobbs, and LB Divine Deablo this offseason. It's one of the worst front sevens in the NFL.
David Montgomery - 9.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Lions project for the 17th-most points of the week (22.5), which is 10 points fewer than they averaged last year (33.0). In 12 games as a Lion when they scored fewer than 30 points, Montgomery has averaged 12.9 half PPR points per game, but we should expect Jahmyr Gibbs to continue eating into his work as he enters the prime of his career.
Tyrone Tracy - 10.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Giants project for the 4th-fewest points of the week (19.75), and it's unclear if he's trusted near the goal-line with Devin Singletary and thicccc rookie Cam Skattebo available to vulture. Tracy should be the starter and touch favorite, but it's unclear if he'll be more of a trap back who cedes valuable touches in a committee.
Javonte Williams - 8.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cowboys project for the 5th-fewest points of the week (20.0) in Philly. The Eagles were 2nd in rushing EPA allowed from Week 10 last year and allowed the fewest points to RBs across the entire season. It's a terrible matchup.
Update: Jaydon Blue is a healthy scratch. Not surprising for a 5th-round rookie who reportedly had some maturity issues and the tail end of training camp with an injury. That leaves the Cowboys with just Javonte and Miles Sanders at RB. Expect their FB and WRs to take some backfield touches, but this is good news that they don't trust Blue right now. Receptions should slide Javonte's way.
RJ Harvey - 7.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Broncos project for the 5th-most points of the week (25.0) and are 7.5-point home favorites. This is RB game script, and Dobbins might be the more trusted rusher to close the game out. RJ Harvey is a real threat on early downs and in the manufactured reception department, but he is working through a scheme change, vision issues, and pass protection right now. Dobbins is also heavier (212 vs. 205 pounds), so he gets the nod at the goal line early in the year most likely. I'm leaning into the veteran early until we gather more information.
Nick Chubb - 7.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Texans list Chubb as the starter, but he'll be part of a committee approach most likely. There are two receiving options for pure passing downs, plus scheme-fit Dameon Pierce. Before a minor injury for Pierce, he was actually pushing Chubb as the starter. Behind a bad offensive line, Chubb can't afford to lose many early-down snaps to Pierce.
This brand new OL, including 2nd-round LT Aireontae Ersery, will be facing off against bully DE Jared Verse on the road. Houston is 6th-lowest in projected points this week (20.5).
Dylan Sampson
In the Preseason Week 3 dress rehearsal, Sampson started and played on 3rd-and-longs ahead of Jerome Ford. That's rare for a 4th-round rookie and points to his underrated projection while Quinshon Judkins is sidelined.
Jordan Mason - 7.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt - 6.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Tank Bigsby - 6.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot if he can get the volume.
The Jaguars project for the 5th-most points of the week (25.0) as 3-point home favorites to the Panthers, who easily were the worst rushing EPA defense and fantasy RB defense last year. It won't be as bad this year after adding multiple starters up front, but Carolina allowed 28.0 half PPR points to RBs last year. The second worst defense was at 24.2. Huge gap.
Jerome Ford - 8.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He played behind rookie Dylan Sampson in the final preseason game, which doesn't happen often versus a veteran incumbent. Ford was replaced twice in the past draft, too, so they're clearly trying to move on from him.
Zach Charbonnet - 6.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Braelon Allen
Cam Skattebo
Rachaad White
Kaleb Johnson
The Underdog Pick'em lobby has his higher/lower for carries at 6.5. He's a bench stash only.
Ollie Gordon II
Week 1 WR Rankings
Ja'Marr Chase - 16.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bengals are 2nd in projected points (26.5). He's good, and I like the matchup for him despite having respect for CB1 Denzel Ward. The Browns played the fewest two-high shells in the NFL last year, and if the Browns don't tilt that single-high safety over Chase, it's going to be a problem.
Nico Collins - 14.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Christian Kirk (hamstring) is out this week. It's Collins and rookies.
The Rams CBs look pretty bad on paper, which is why they were 3rd in zone rate last year (77%). Collins, of course, was the WR2 in yards per zone route at 3.1, only trailing Puka Nacua. He vaults to WR1 overall against two-high zone coverages, too.
Justin Jefferson - 14.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
No Jordan Addison, but the offense will be more balanced, less downfield focused, and likely less productive through the air this year with a new QB. Jefferson was the WR5 on WR8 usage last year in another All Pro caliber season from the NFL's all-time receiving yards per game leader.
He'll face strong CB1 Jaylon Johnson in coverage on the perimeter. In 8 career games against Johnson's Bears, Jefferson is averaging 85.6 yards on 6.25 receptions. Johnson listed Jefferson as his 2nd-toughest matchup ever.
CeeDee Lamb - 15.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cowboys project for the 4th-fewest points of the week (19.5), but game script is very favorable as 8.5-point dogs in terms of projected volume. Lamb is the WR1 overall per game over the past two seasons, and the Cowboys won't be able to run the ball with their personnel.
Malik Nabers - 14.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
It'll be a fun matchup with Marshon Lattimore, who had a down year while being traded in the middle of the season. When he's healthy, Lattimore is good. We'll see how he looks this year. Nabers is close to uncoverable to me right now.
The Giants project for the 5th-fewest points of the week (19.75), as usual, but there feels like more room for upside this year with much-better QB play. Russell Wilson can execute the short outs that Nabers feasts on, but he also created the most catchable downfield targets in the NFL for George Pickens last year with a continuously beautiful deep ball. He was the WR1 overall in usage last year and might be able to actually come close to matching that this year with his catchable ball rate likely to climb.
Drake London - 13.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Michael Penix, who has some Jay Cutler to him, is going to be good for London. The Falcons were already 7th in WR usage last year in a more limited offense under the immobile Kirk Cousins. Expect London to be moved around the formation, so he'll see the Bucs CBs pretty evenly. His last 3 games against them: 34, 154, and 172 yards. And those are games that have averaged 59 points combined. Fireworks.
Puka Nacua - 13.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He is averaging 96.8 YPG in his 28 career games above 50% snaps.
CB1 Derek Stingley is elite, but he's slid into the slot on just 15 snaps last year. It's more likely that Davante Adams sees Stingley than Nacua. Still, CB2 Kamari Lassiter and NCB/S Jalen Pitre are good players, too. One answer teams went to last year against this secondary was screens (3rd most allowed).
Brian Thomas Jr. - 14.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The only WR to average more half PPR points from Week 12 on last year was Ja'Marr Chase. As a rookie, he averaged 96 YPG in his last 7 games on 11 targets per game. He's that good on tape, too.
The Jaguars are 5th in projected points (25.0). There's a chance the Panthers use Pro Bowl CB1 Jaycee Horn as a shadow to Thomas, but it's also not a guarantee that he does. More importantly, the Panthers allowed the 2nd-highest explosive pass play rate in the NFL. That's BTJ's music.
Update: The field will be pretty damn wet because of #rain. I'm making minor adjustments for the pass game.
Tyreek Hill - 13.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Colts lost 3rd-round rookie CB Justin Walley to an ACL tear and then released JuJu Brents, leaving them with 32-year-old Xavien Howard and 29-year-old Charvarius Ward as their starting outside corners. This is a great matchup for Hill.
A.J. Brown - 12.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Eagles are 1st in projected points (28.0), and Dallas was 5th-worst against fantasy WRs last year. The Cowboys are worse at pass rushing now without Micah Parsons, and CB1 Trevon Diggs is making his return from a very serious injury. This has spike week potential. He's averaged 79 yards in 6 games against the Cowboys.
There might be some light rain during the game.
Tee Higgins - 12.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bengals are 2nd in projected points (26.5), but Higgins will see some CB1 Denzel Ward. When Ward is on the other side of the field, then Higgins is in a great spot. The Browns are one of the handful of teams who use man coverage on more than a third of their snaps.
Last year, Higgins was the WR4 per game on WR4 usage. He was the WR1 overall in expected touchdowns per game, and nothing has really changed. His value is discounted because he's not the top guy in his own offense, but if Joe Burrow keeps this 289.3 passing yard pace, then that's a mute point. The Bengals were easily first in WR usage and neutral pass rate last year. Higgins benefited a lot from the Tyler Boyd departure, as his average depth of target lowered and his weekly floor rose.
Mike Evans - 13.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Another matchup with CB1 A.J. Terrell, but the Falcons weren't very good last year in the secondary in general. They allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to WRs. The Bucs are 5th in projected points (25.0) this week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 11.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Packers were 5th-best against fantasy WRs last year, then added SCB Nate Hobbs (knee) this offseason. He's good when healthy. For what it's worth, the Packers have played ARSB well, too. He's only averaging 59 yards in his last 6 contests.
Ladd McConkey - 12.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He'll see some CB Trent McDuffie while in Brazil, but the Chiefs were also gashed by slot options throughout the year when McDuffie moved to the outside. McConkey will also get some of his old teammate Kristian Fulton. It's generally a tougher matchup, but is it good to be next to Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua on a rookie recap chart?
Xavier Worthy - 12.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
No Rashee Rice (suspension).
The Chiefs are 9th in projected points (24.25) against an underrated Chargers defense that utilizes a lot of two-deep safeties and forces things underneath. They were 2nd in zone rate last year (78.5%). Worthy should see these underneath looks, just like he did late last year without Rice. Over his past 10 games including playoffs, Worthy averaged 75 total yards with positive touchdown regression coming his way.
Courtland Sutton - 11.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Broncos are 5th in projected points (25.0), and Sutton was the WR18 on WR11 usage last year on the 11th-most expected touchdowns. In positive matchups like this one, he's an upside WR2 play. Titans CB1 L'Jarius Sneed (knee) underwent knee surgery this offseason and may not be fully healthy. It's looking like one of the worst CB groups in the NFL to start the year.
Terry McLaurin - 12.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Commanders are 4th in projected points (25.75), but beware of using 2024 Giants defensive metrics for this season. They added elite EDGE prospect Abdul Carter, CB1 Paulson Adebo, and FS Jevon Holland this offseason, plus have SCB Dru Phillips and SS Tyler Nubin heading into year two. Expect McLaurin to see Adebo with safeties over the top here.
Some August holdouts have later stated they struggled early because of the time away. McLaurin has practiced for two weeks since his extension, but it's worth noting.
Tetairoa McMillan - 12.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Update: The field will be pretty damn wet because of #rain. I'm making minor adjustments for the pass game.
No Adam Thielen (traded) or Jalen Coker (IR), and I don't trust Xavier Legette. McMillan was an awesome prospect with size, ball skills, YAC ability, and production (108 and 110 yards per game as a true sophomore and true junior). He should be a 20-30% target earner right away.
It's a solid matchup for him right away. The Jaguars will play fast on offense, and their defense is a work in progress. They were 2nd-to-last in EPA per dropback allowed and the 3rd-worst versus fantasy WRs last year, but they have a good CB1 in Tyson Campbell and a new SCB in Jourdan Lewis this year.
DJ Moore - 10.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Vikings allowed the most points to fantasy WRs last year on the 2nd-most screens. Moore had 5 screens in each of his two contests against them himself. It's tied to the funky looks DC Brian Flores shows pre-snap and how often he plays two-high zone defense behind them. An easy answer to calm things down is to throw a quick screen to the outside.
Emeka Egbuka - 11.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bucs are 5th in projected points (25.0), and the Falcons allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to WRs. They're starting a 4th-round rookie in the slot and a 3rd-round rookie at saftey. If A.J. Terrell is on Mike Evans, then Egbuka is getting the easiest parts of the already-suspect defense.
As a prospect, I had Egbuka ranked 13th overall with an upside comp to Cooper Kupp. He should hit the ground fully running. No Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, and maybe Cade Otton right now.
Jerry Jeudy - 10.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Over his past 10 games, Jeudy is averaging a wild 96 yards on 10.3 targets. Those are WR9 numbers on WR9 usage, so even this is a discount on what we saw after emerging late last year.
This is not the same old Browns for Week 1 either. Their team total is near league average at 21.0, and Joe Flacco in September is as good as it's going to get for the pass game. The Bengals had clear issues this preseason after ranked 30th in success rate allowed last season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 11.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The 49ers allowed the fewest receiving yards to WRs last year on the 2nd-best explosive pass rate allowed. He'll likely see underrated CB1 Deommodore Lenoir for a bulk of his snaps, as he transitions to more boundary corner in 2025. This preseason, JSN was often lining up outside of Cooper Kupp. All that said, JSN did have a 10-110-0 game last time he faced the Niners when Lenoir was frequently on him in the slot.
The Seahawks are 7th-lowest in projected points this week.
Davante Adams - 10.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
As the X receiver in the offense, Adams is more likely to see outside CB1 Derek Stingley this week, which is rarely fun. We also don't know what Matthew Stafford will actually look like on his bad back, so I've knocked him down 8ish spots than normal.
George Pickens - 9.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cowboys project for the 4th-fewest points of the week (19.5), and the Eagles allowed the fewest explosive passes last year. Both are bad signs, but Pickens has the easiest individual matchup of the game. Emerging CB1 Quinyon Mitchell typically plays one side of the field, so if the Cowboys have a pulse they can have Pickens against their far-worse CB2 on the other side for most of the game while CeeDee Lamb battles Cooper DeJean in the slot. Pickens is capable of creating splash plays against top corners anyways.
I'm playing higher 2.5 first downs.
DeVonta Smith - 10.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Eagles are 1st in projected points (28.0), and Dallas was 5th-worst against fantasy WRs last year. The Cowboys are worse at pass rushing now without Micah Parsons, and CB1 Trevon Diggs is making his return from a very serious injury. Smith's matchup is the most difficult with SCB DaRon Bland likely to meet Smith in the slot for a majority of the game. He's been up-and-down against the Cowboys historically; 6-120-2, 2-14-0, 5-73-0, 3-51-1, 8-113-2 most recently.
There might be some light rain during the game.
Zay Flowers - 10.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Ravens are 10th in projected points (24.5), but this is the rare game where the Ravens are underdogs. The Bills defense also allowed the most screen passes last year, likely stemming from their consistent two-deep shell defense. Their CB1 Christian Benford is one of the most underrated players, but rookie CB3 Maxwell Hairston is out and CB2 Tre'Davious White is questionable.
Jaylen Waddle - 11.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Garrett Wilson - 10.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Jets project for the 2nd-fewest points of the week (17.75). Wilson might be shadowed by CB1 Joey Porter Jr, who at least shadowed top options last year. Porter is a good/physical presence but not a complete eraser yet. The Steelers also know Justin Fields' strengths and weaknesses well, so they should have a very good game plan for how to defend him.
Marvin Harrison Jr. - 10.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cardinals are 5th in projected points (25.0), but this is a Saints defense under new DC Brandon Staley that will be light in the box with two deep safeties, which typically means more runs and underneath throws. That works against Marvin Harrison Jr., who didn't have a single target behind the line of scrimmage last year. The Saints also added SS Justin Reid and FS Julian Blackmon this offseason, plus have 2024 2nd-rounder Kool-Aid McKinstry as a breakout candidate. Their front is in worse shape than that.
Travis Hunter - 9.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
As they listed on their unofficial depth chart, Hunter is likeliest to play a majority of offensive snaps (approximately 80% of the routes), while rotating in as a specialist at corner where he was listed as a backup.
Update: ESPN's Adam Schefter reports this week will be an every-down WR week with a situational role at CB. This isn't the plan every week, but it matches their personnel right now.
Update: The field will be pretty damn wet because of #rain. I'm making minor adjustments for the pass game.
The Jaguars are 5th in projected points (25.0) against the 2nd-worst EPA per dropback defense. The Panthers were 3rd-worst in yards allowed per screen, something both Hunter and coach Liam Coen excel at. This is a great matchup, especially with clear CB1 Jaycee Horn likely on Brian Thomas. It'll be "Chau Smith-Wade" in the slot for Carolina, a 5th-rounder last draft with 4 starts. Big advantage to Hunter.
Matthew Golden - 8.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
This assumes Jayden Reed (foot) is out or severely limited. Even in the initial scrimmage at the beginning of training camp, Golden was a near full-time player with the 1st-team offense. Everyone has loved his camp, and his preseason usage indicated he'll run both downfield and short/manufactured routes. He's the future of the offense, and coach LaFleur is a fantastic play caller. I'd be surprised if he wasn't utilized right away in an important home game versus the Lions. The Packers are 5th in projected points (25.0), too.
The Lions allowed the 2nd-most points to fantasy WRs last year, but they upgraded at outside CB with D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold gets another offseason as a former 1st-round pick.
DK Metcalf - 10.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR31 on WR35 usage last year in a totally different system. We'll see if they ask him to run a more diverse route tree as the clear top target in Pittsburgh.
The Jets were 4th-best versus fantasy WRs last year with CB1 Sauce Gardner leading the way, but Gardner used to play sides instead of shadow when they use to have CB2 D.J. Reed (now in Detroit). We'll see what this version of the defense does under a new play-caller.
Calvin Ridley - 9.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Broncos should have the best CB in the NFL, Patrick Surtain, travel with Ridley.
The Titans project for the fewest points of the week (17.5). Offenses playing in Denver in September have averaged 15.1 points across 9 games since 2020. This defense is stacked, and the altitude during the summer weather is a lot to deal with for visiting teams. It's expected to be 81 degrees a mile up in the air.
Jakobi Meyers - 10.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
It's a new play caller with some minor upgrades at WR, but Meyers is an underrated asset in general. He was the WR25 on WR15 usage last year, averaging a ridiculous 73 YPG without Davante Adams across 12 games even with Brock Bowers dominating.
The Patriots are trending to be without CB1 Christian Gonzalez (hamstring), don't have good depth behind him, and are starting a Day 3 rookie at safety with Jabrill Peppers randomly cut and Kyle Dugger on the bench. It's a weird situation in New England's secondary right now. Real weird.
Update: The field will be pretty damn wet because of #rain. I'm making minor adjustments for the pass game.
Jauan Jennings - 9.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Nothing has happened with his contract, but his calf has "healed" right when Week 1 practices rolled around. The 49ers desperately need him right now with Brandon Aiyuk (IR) and Demarcus Robinson (suspended) sidelined for the first three weeks. Jennings was a monster last year in all per-route metrics. Here he is in first downs per route:
Deebo Samuel Sr. - 9.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Commanders are 4th in projected points (25.75), but beware of using 2024 Giants defensive metrics for this season. They added elite EDGE prospect Abdul Carter, CB1 Paulson Adebo, and FS Jevon Holland this offseason, plus have SCB Dru Phillips and SS Tyler Nubin heading into year two.
Rome Odunze - 9.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Vikings allowed the most points to fantasy WRs last year.
Jameson Williams - 9.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
In 8 games when the Lions scored 31 points or lower last year, Williams averaged 8.0 half PPR points. In games above that, it was 17.0. The Lions are projected for 22.5 points this week against a slow-paced offense and star-studded defense in Green Bay.
Chris Olave - 8.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
If coach Kellen Moore's history and the Saints preseason were any indications, the underneath usage for Olave will be available for the first time in his NFL career. That may come in handy this week against the Cardinals' outlier defense, which sometimes uses three safeties and changes the picture post-snap at a very high level. I can see this spooking the play-calling and QB decision-making, forcing even more throws underneath. This could help Olave's receptions while hurting his overall ceiling. The Saints project for the 3rd-fewest points of the week (18.5).
Stefon Diggs - 9.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
In a half season last year, Diggs was 1-of-14 WRs to reach the 10% first downs per route club and was the WR7 in ESPN' Open Score, which uses on-field tracking data. Diggs had the juice last year before tearing his ACL. He should be at near full strength after being ready for the first day of training camp, but there's some uncertainty in the first week.
The Raiders are starting Eric Stokes and "Kyu Blu Kelly" at outside corner and UCLA Bruin Darnay Holmes in the slot right now. That's no bueno.
Update: The field will be pretty damn wet because of #rain. I'm making minor adjustments for the pass game.
Josh Downs - 8.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
This offense is set up for Downs, and the matchup couldn't be better. The Dolphins are amazing on the defensive line and horrific at corner. The Colts could RPO this secondary to pieces, and many of those looks will go to Downs, who I think is Indianapolis' best pass catcher. Expect a lot more dink-and-dunk opportunities with Daniel Jones under center. The Colts are surprisingly 12th in projected points (24.0).
Ricky Pearsall - 8.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jauan Jennings will play after returning to practice this week, but no Brandon Aiyuk or Demarcus Robinson. Pearsall has been the only healthy member of the receiver corps the entire training camp period.
He'll see some SCB Devon Witherspoon (dawg) in coverage, and the 49ers only project for 23.0 points against a consensus top-5 defense with Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle to get the ball to, too.
Khalil Shakir - 9.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was a full participant on Friday and should see his normal role, albeit at less than full strength.
The Bills are 3rd in projected points (26.0), but Shakir will see elite SCB Marlon Humphrey and S Kyle Hamilton in coverage. Not fun when coming off a high-ankle sprain.
Michael Pittman Jr. - 8.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Colts are surprisingly 12th in projected points (24.0). Three Dolphin corners named Storm Duck, Jack Jones, and Jason Marshall Jr. walk into a bar...
Romeo Doubs - 7.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
This assumes Jayden Reed (foot) is out or severely limited, and Christian Watson remains out. It's likely Doubs is a full-time player this week. In 8 games last year with Jordan Love as a 75% or higher snap participant, Doubs averaged 8.6 half PPR points and 50 yards.
The Lions allowed the 2nd-most points to fantasy WRs last year, but they upgraded at outside CB with D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold gets another offseason as a former 1st-round pick. The Packers 25.0-point team total suggests this is a good spot.
Darnell Mooney - 7.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Update: This week was entirely limited in practice, ultimately drawing the questionable tag. It's still unclear if he'll play. If he does, it'll probably be in a brace and won't impact him too much.
Rashid Shaheed - 6.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
If coach Kellen Moore's history and the Saints preseason were any indications, the underneath usage for Shaheed will be available for the first time in his NFL career. That may come in handy this week against the Cardinals' outlier defense, which sometimes uses three safeties and changes the picture post-snap at a very high level. I can see this spooking the play-calling and QB decision-making, forcing even more throws underneath. This could help Olave's receptions while hurting his overall ceiling. The Saints project for the 3rd-fewest points of the week (18.5).
Keenan Allen - 7.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - 7.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Cedric Tillman - 7.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Xavier Legette - 7.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Marvin Mims Jr. - 7.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Marquise Brown - 8.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
No Rashee Rice. Likely no Jalen Royals. It'll be Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown in 2-WR sets, with JuJu Smith-Schuster in the slot and Tyquan Thornton in the vertical rotation role. The Chiefs are 11th in projected points (24.25).
Keon Coleman - 7.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Update: He was added to the injury report (groin) on Wednesday but was off the final report and should be ready to go as usual. He'll face fellow sophomore Nate Wiggins on the perimeter. He's good.
Rashod Bateman - 6.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jayden Higgins
Christian Kirk (hamstring) hasn't practiced. This assumes it's a combination of 2nd-rounder Jayden Higgins and Xavier Hutchinson in 2-WR sets next to Nico Collins, and then 3rd-round rookie Jaylin Noel operating as the slot in 3-WR sets. If Higgins is in 2-WR sets for the entire game, he'll be in the WR4 conversation if he has a pulse.
DeMario Douglas - 6.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Adam Thielen - 6.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Week 1 Flex Projections
These are not my personal projections, nor do they cover every single player, but they are generally very good and come from the Underdog Pick'em lobby. I will be answering sit/start questions on YouTube this Sunday morning.
Week 1 QB Rankings
Lamar Jackson - 22.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Ravens (26.0, -1.5) at Bills. They are 3rd in projected points.
The Bills are banged up at CB. Christian Benford (groin) was limited. Tre'Davious White (groin) was a DNP. And rookie Maxwell Hairston is out. If you've seen their safety tape from the preseason or late last year, you'd have even more concerns. Buffalo's defense is overrated right now.
When I did my real life QB rankings research, it was Lamar and Mahomes in the very top tier. He's playing out of his mind from out of structure and now within structure under OC Todd Monken. I don't know how you defend him now that he's in his full prime. Good luck!
Jalen Hurts - 22.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Eagles (28.0, -8.5) vs. Cowboys. They are 1st in projected points.
When A.J. Brown was on the field last year, Hurts' YPA jumped from 6.9 to 8.1. His touchdown rate also jumped from 2.1% to 4.5%. The entire offense is healthy right now. It's go time.
The Cowboys allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last year, then proceeded to trade their best player by far in an attempt to stop the run. What if that move made them terrible defending the pass? What if?!
Josh Allen - 23.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Bills (24.5, +1.5) vs. Ravens. They are 11th in projected points.
He has been QB1 or QB2 overall in 5-straight seasons, and the entire OL returns. Allen will be getting Khalil Shakir (ankle) after missing the entire training camp, but now Keon Coleman (groin) is unexpectedly on the injury report.
The Ravens defense is serious. From Week 11 on including the NFL Playoffs after they settled their secondary rotation with Marlon Humphrey back in the slot, they were easily 1st in EPA per dropback. They've since added two top-20 consensus prospects on defense and CB Jaire Alexander (questionable). This easily could be a top-3 unit this year.
Jayden Daniels - 21.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Commanders (25.75, -6.0) vs. Giants. They are 4th in projected points.
He was an elite fantasy QB as a rookie, then the front office added LT Laremy Tunsil, 1st-round RT Josh Conerly Jr., and Deebo Samuel, while getting rid of their power RB. What else is there to say?
Beware of using 2024 Giants defensive metrics for this season. They added elite EDGE prospect Abdul Carter, CB1 Paulson Adebo, and FS Jevon Holland this offseason, plus have SCB Dru Phillips and SS Tyler Nubin heading into year two. This will be a good defense.
Joe Burrow - 20.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Bengals (26.5, -5.5) at Browns. They are 2nd in projected points.
In 12 games with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Burrow averaged 23.3 fantasy points. Only Lamar Jackson averaged more than that if we include the NFL Playoffs. His passing efficiency is less sticky year-over-year than the elite dual threat types, but Burrow ran a bit more last year and is at the absolute peak of his game right now. He keeps getting mentally sharper. I don't think he'll regress that much.
His worst fantasy outing with Higgins last year was against the Browns, however, only because they attempted just 25 passes. If the Browns can put up some points like the betting markets expect (21.0 for Cleveland), then Burrow's numbers should look great.
Patrick Mahomes - 19.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Chiefs (24.75, -3.0) vs. Chargers in Brazil. They are 8th in projected points.
If you look at the table up above, you'll see that Mahomes was an elite fantasy QB for his first 5 seasons, then was on the QB1/2 border for each of the past two seasons. The biggest difference is Tyreek Hill, but they've at least added Xavier Worthy in year two and Hollywood Brown. But the other key difference is having a capable left tackle, and they might have one if Josh Simmons lives up to his 1st-round hype. The Chiefs had the highest quick pressure rate allowed on standard dropbacks last year (33%), leaving them with no choice but to pivot to underneath throws. What if that changes now?
The Chargers played zone at the 2nd-highest rate last year (78.5%), often sticking two safeties downfield. Mahomes has been disciplined and willing to live in the high success rate world against this shell coverage before, so I expect a lot of short throws like we saw last season. They'll likely sprinkle in a few downfield shots as they begin the MVP Mahomes momentum, but the Chargers are an underrated defense with highly-respected DC Jesse Minter in charge. If Mahomes can put up big numbers here, it's go time.
Baker Mayfield - 18.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Buccaneers (24.75, -2.5) at Falcons. They are 8th in projected points.
The Falcons were 3rd-worst vs. fantasy QBs, and this depth chart still stinks, especially if both of their 1st-round edge rushing rookies are part-time players. This is a matchup that makes the LT Tristan Wirfs absence less impactful. He has 3 total TDs in each of his last 3 games against Atlanta, while putting up 26, 30, and 29 points as a team.
Bo Nix - 17.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Broncos (25.5, -8.5) vs. Titans. They are 5th in projected points.
As a rookie, Nix was the QB6 from Week 5 on. Since then, he's spent another offseason with Hall of Fame coach Sean Payton, while adding TE Evan Engram and two upgrades at RB. That's key for him in particular because he led the NFL in checkdowns per game (6.1), and they can scoot. Nix is an underrated athlete, and if he starts throwing the ball over the middle with better poise, then he's a very fantasy-friendly quarterback in style.
Titans CB1 L'Jarius Sneed (knee) underwent knee surgery this offseason and may not be fully healthy. It's looking like one of the worst CB groups in the NFL to start the year.
Drake Maye - 17.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Update: The field will be pretty damn wet because of #rain. I'm making minor adjustments for the pass game.
Patriots (23.0, -2.5) vs. Raiders. They are 14th in projected points.
Hosting the Raiders is as clean of a matchup as it gets. They lost DT Christian Wilkins, S Trevon Moehrig, LB Robert Spillane, SCB Nate Hobbs, and LB Divine Deablo this offseason. It's one of the worst front sevens in the NFL, and this could be the highest team total the Patriots have in 2025.
The entire offensive line is largely brand new, Stefon Diggs is fully off the injury report, and new OC Josh McDaniels has hinted at using Maye in the designed QB run game. There's some level of support in town, especially for fantasy production. Maye was already great as a scrambler last year, so he could be a top-6 rushing QB threat this year.
Trevor Lawrence - 18.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jaguars (25.0, -3.5) vs. Panthers. They are 6th in projected points.
Update: The field will be pretty damn wet because of #rain. I'm making minor adjustments for the pass game.
His surrounding cast includes a post-breakout Brian Thomas Jr, 2nd-overall pick WR Travis Hunter, and one of the best play callers in Liam Coen. There will be less hero ball and a lot more underneath throws for Lawrence, which hopefully calms down his decision making and accuracy issues. Coen also got the most scramble production of Baker Mayfield's career last year for some reason, so Lawrence should be fantasy viable in the right matchups this year. This is absolutely one of them.
The Panthers allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to QBs last year, and while they have made improvements up front, they are still looking suspect at a few spots over the middle.
Kyler Murray - 17.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Cardinals (24.75, -6.5) at Saints. They are 8th in projected points.
Update: He's sick but will play through it. His walk up to the stadium makes me believe he has bubble guts. The NFL medical teams know what they are doing but this could make him less likely to run... well, at least in terms of moving his legs on the field.
The offense he's been in is designed in ways that are hurting his fantasy appeal. Kyler only had 224 QB designed rushing yards last year (about 150 yards from his career peak). The ball is snapped with the 4th-highest seconds between plays (lower the team play volume). He's throwing about 33% of the RPOs as he did with Kliff Kinsgbury (which is free pass volume). And he's turning his back to the defense more often while running the most under center plays of his career. Last year was a major struggle on 3rd-and-longs, particularly trying to connect with rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. We'll see if any of this changes in 2025, but if not, then Kyler is destined for the QB1/2 border in fantasy.
Saints new DC Brandon Staley takes the two-shell defense bit to the absolute max. He dares offenses to run, and they typically do just that (really well). The Cardinals should oblige. This should be an efficient outing, especially if EDGE1 Chase Young can't suit up. The Saints are going to be a bend-don't-break defense stylistically, but they don't have much horsepower up front. They should be nickeled-and-dimed right down the field.
Tua Tagovailoa - 17.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Dolphins (22.75, +1.5) at Colts. They are 16th in projected points.
In 15 healthy games in September and October since the Tyreek Hill trade, Tua is averaging 19.8 fantasy points. Some of that can be explained by the uniqueness of the condensed splits, deeper RPOs, and cheat motion wrinkles that caught defenses by surprised at the time, but some of it is just weather and health. Right now, both are on his side. It's now or never for this offense.
The Colts placed 3rd-round rookie starting CB Justin Walley on IR and signed two veterans to start, neither of whom can run with the Dolphins wide outs in a dome. It's a good matchup, especially with the Dolphins defense looking like the league's biggest pass funnel.
Jordan Love - 16.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Packers (25.0, -2.5) vs. Lions. They are 6th in projected points.
This was the most run-heavy offenses in neutral situations last year, even after Love was done healing up from injuries. Love only averaged 30 pass attempts last year and doesn't add much with his legs, so he's pretty low floor in fantasy. In good matchups where the Packers will be pushed, then Love can be efficient enough (8.0 YPA last year) to be a start. Hopefully that happens more often in 2025 with a potentially legit No. 1 outside receiver in Matthew Golden.
Brock Purdy - 18.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
49ers (23.0, -2.5) at Seahawks. They are 15th in projected points.
The Seahawks defense was 6th in EPA and success rate allowed after their Week 10 bye last year and are widely-viewed as a top-5 defense this year after adding DE Demarcus Lawrence this offseason. It makes sense that their Week 1 team total is a handful of points lower than their average projected team total.
Justin Herbert - 17.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Chargers (21.75, +3.0) vs. Chiefs in Brazil. They are 20th in projected points.
Caleb Williams - 16.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Bears (21.25, +1.5) at Vikings. They are 22nd in projected points.
Bryce Young - 15.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Panthers (21.5, +3.5) at Jaguars. They are 21st in projected points.
The Jaguars were 6th-worst vs. fantasy QBs.
Daniel Jones - 16.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Colts (23.75, -1.5) vs. Dolphins. They are 12th in projected points.
J.J. McCarthy - 16.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Vikings (22.75, +3.0) at Bears. They are 17th in projected points.
Michael Penix Jr. - 15.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Falcons (22.5, +3.0) vs. Bucs. They are 18th in projected points.
The Bucs were 4th-worst vs. fantasy QBs.
Jared Goff - 16.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Lions (22.5, +2.5) at Packers. They are 19th in projected points.
The Packers were 5th-best vs. fantasy QBs last year, then added Micah Parsons if you haven't heard.
C.J. Stroud - 16.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Texans (20.25, +3.0) at Rams. They are 27th in projected points.
The Rams were 7th-worst vs. fantasy QBs.
Dak Prescott - 16.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Cowboys (19.5, +8.5) at Eagles. They are 29th in projected points.
The Eagles were 3rd-best vs. fantasy QBs.
Matthew Stafford - 15.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Rams (23.25, -3.0) vs. Texans. They are 13th in projected points.
Geno Smith - 15.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Raiders (20.5, +2.5) at Patriots. They are 25th in projected points.
Justin Fields - 15.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jets (17.75, +3.0) vs. Steelers. They are 31st in projected points.
Joe Flacco - 15.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Browns (21.0, +5.5) vs. Bengals. They are 21st in projected points.
Russell Wilson - 15.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Giants (19.75, +6.0) at Commanders. They are 28th in projected points.
Sam Darnold - 14.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Seahawks (20.5, +2.5) vs. 49ers. They are 26th in projected points.
Aaron Rodgers - 13.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Steelers (20.75, -3.0) at Jets. They are 24th in projected points.
Cam Ward - 12.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Titans (17.0, -8.5) at Broncos. They are 32nd in projected points.
Spencer Rattler - 13.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Saints (18.25, +6.5) vs. Cardinals. They are 30th in projected points.
Week 1 TE Rankings
Trey McBride - 11.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
If he scores more touchdowns like he should've with all those red zone looks, then McBride has a very good shot at finishing as the TE1 overall this year. He's an elite player in an offense designed to give him clean looks. That'll be true this week in particular with the Cardinals projected for a bunch of points against DC Brandon Staley's two-deep zone defense.
George Kittle - 12.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
With both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel over the past two years, Kittle averaged 10.8 half PPR points on 5.4 targets across 19 games. When one or both missed, that jumped to 12.9 and 6.6 across 14 games. We'll see if Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall can match those two freaks, but if not, the runway for huge production is there early on.
Brock Bowers - 12.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
I can't wait to see what Chip Kelly does tbh.
Update: The field will be pretty damn wet because of #rain. I'm making minor adjustments for the pass game.
Travis Kelce - 10.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Chargers play TEs well (learn LB Daiyan Henley's name while Derwin James gets the hype) but the Chiefs' TEs combined for 9 and 11 receptions against them last year while Rashee Rice was sidelined. Their two-deep zone defense will give up this production in exchange for limiting explosives.
What if a better-shaped Travis Kelce scores touchdowns again?
David Njoku - 9.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bengals allowed the most fantasy points to TEs, including the most receptions (111). Njoku contributed with 8-66-0 and 10-76-1 receiving lines. In catch up mode with good weather and a veteran QB, this is the time to play Njoku before 3rd-round rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. (who they reportedly love internally) begins to make more noise.
Mark Andrews - 9.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
No Isiah Likely (foot), and it's revenge time for that fumble in the Ravens elimination game. The Bills' defense is one to attack right now with the state of their safety talent and CB injuries.
T.J. Hockenson - 8.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
In his last 8 games coming off a knee tear, Hockenson averaged 51 YPG on 6.3 targets. This was in an offense that was 5th in neutral pass rate and averaged 24 points per game during this stretch, something that could drop with new offseason additions up front and at RB. That should be offset by the current Jordan Addison suspension, but it's something to monitor moving forward.
Tucker Kraft - 7.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Lions allowed the fewest fantasy points to TEs, but he's an emerging full-time player in a very good offense with major WR injuries. Only Jonnu Smith and Trey McBride had more screen targets at TE last year, and Kraft is 260 pounds. Good sign!
Tyler Warren - 7.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Dolphins have freaks on the defensive line, including a new 331-pound 1st-round DT in Kenneth Grant, and then pretty rough back seven players. Warren will see some Minkah Fitzpatrick, but he's been up-and-down recently. This is a very favorable matchup at home with (quietly) the 12th-highest team total. Warren played nearly every snap with the 1st-team offense throughout the preseason.
Evan Engram - 7.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Titans allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to TEs, but the Broncos are 5th in projected points this week at home and Bo Nix threw the most checkdowns per game (6.1). 67% of those go to RBs or TEs, so get ready for a mini PPR scam.
Sam LaPorta - 8.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Packers have a fantastic LB and S combination right now, plus drain clock on offense. It's a bad matchup on the road with a Lion team total that sits 10.5 points lower than their average scoring last year.
Kyle Pitts - 7.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Darnell Mooney is out.
Hunter Henry - 6.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Update: The field will be pretty damn wet because of #rain. I'm making minor adjustments for the pass game.
The Raiders allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to TEs and have an even worse defense on paper this year. It's the best matchup he'll have all year.
Jake Ferguson - 7.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Eagles' two-high shell zone defense is most vulnerable to tight ends when trailing, a trade-off DC Vic Fangio is likely to make with CeeDee Lamb facing SCB Cooper DeJean and George Pickens facing CB1 Quinyon Mitchell. I expect cheap receptions while trailing.
Dallas Goedert - 7.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Last year including the NFL Playoffs, Goedert averaged 65 YPG and 5.4 receptions in the 5 games when DeVonta Smith and/or A.J. Brown missed. When both were healthy, that dropped to 47 YPG and 4.0 receptions. The same thing appears in yards per route run. Without Devonta Smith (3.4 YPRR), without A.J. Brown (3.1), without both (5.1), and the entire year sample (2.1).
Dalton Kincaid - 6.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Keon Coleman (groin) and Khalil Shakir (ankle) are dealing with injuries. Facing the Ravens with WR injuries would be a great time for the Kincaid breakout to begin, but that does also mean Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey, and Roquan Smith over the middle!
Chig Okonkwo - 6.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
If the best corner in the NFL shadows Calvin Ridley, then how does Okonkwo not get peppered with underneath targets? His 73% snap rate late last year and then increased involvement this preseason are signs to buy in fantasy TE2 land.
Colston Loveland
If he runs 67% of the routes this week, that'll be a win. That's also not guaranteed.
Zach Ertz - 6.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
I just don't see Ertz being a focal point like he was last year with Deebo Samuel around now.
Jonnu Smith
My expectation is high per-route metrics but not enough routes to matter in 1-TE leagues.
Brenton Strange
Cade Otton
Dalton Schultz
Theo Johnson
He played 84% of the snaps in his 12 rookie games.
Ja'Tavion Sanders
Mason Taylor
Week 1 Fantasy Defenses
The Broncos or Steelers no matter what. The Cardinals and Jaguars are sneaky. Nothing else really stands out, as some of the best defenses (Ravens, Seahawks, Texans, Packers) face off against top offenses (Bills, 49ers, Rams, Lions).